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The U.S. Isn’t Ready to Face China on the Battlefield, The invasion of Ukraine exacerbates critical deficiencies in America’s defense industrial base

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The U.S. Isn’t Ready to Face China on the Battlefield​

The invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated critical deficiencies in America’s defense industrial base.


By Seth G. Jones
Oct. 16, 2022 5:33 pm ET

The Biden administration is doubling down on its recognition of China as America’s main competitor. The recently released National Security Strategy and the soon-to-be-released National Defense Strategy—Congress has already received a version of the latter—conclude that China poses the most significant threat to the U.S. What administration officials haven’t said, however, is that the U.S. isn’t fully prepared to fight a major war against China.

The war in Ukraine has exposed deficiencies in America’s defense industrial base that could jeopardize the ability to fight a war with China. The capabilities for fighting are also essential for deterring China. Washington’s assistance to Ukraine has depleted U.S. stocks of some weapons systems and munitions, such as Stinger surface-to-air missile systems, M777 howitzers, 155mm ammunition, and Javelin antitank missile systems.

These challenges highlight an even more serious concern: The U.S. defense industrial base is inadequately prepared for the wartime environment that now exists. It is operating in a peacetime environment. In a major regional conflict—such as a war with China in the Taiwan Strait—U.S. munitions needs likely would exceed Pentagon plans and stockpiles.

In nearly two dozen iterations of a Center for Strategic and International Studies war game that examined a U.S.-China war in the Taiwan Strait, the U.S. expended all its joint air-to-surface standoff missiles and long-range precision-guided antiship missiles within the first week of the conflict. These missiles are critical because of their ability to strike Chinese naval forces from outside Chinese defenses.
The U.S. is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving U.S., U.K. and French forces, the U.K.’s Third Division exhausted national stockpiles of critical munitions in just over a week.

Solving these problems will take time.
Defense companies are generally unwilling to take financial risks without contracts in place, including multiyear contracts. While the U.S. Defense Department signs multiyear contracts for ships and airplanes, it generally does not sign multiyear contracts for munitions. This risk aversion is compounded if companies have to make additional capital investments, especially brick-and-mortar ones.

There are also workforce and supply-chain constraints on increased demand for weapons systems and munitions required for one or more major wars. Companies need to hire, train, and retain workers. Supply chains for the U.S. defense sector are also not as secure as they should be, with some businesses shutting down or moving supply chains overseas—sometimes to unfriendly countries.

In other cases, there aren’t alternative sources for key weapons systems and munitions. The Javelin, for instance, relies on a rocket motor without a major secondary option. There are also significant vulnerabilities with some rare-earth metals, on which China has a near monopoly; other elements such as titanium and aluminum; semiconductors and other microelectronics.

Finally, time is a major constraint. It can take roughly two years to produce some types of missiles and systems, such as the Patriot Advanced Capability PAC-2/PAC-3 air- and missile-defense system, Tomahawk V, air-launched cruise missile, and long-range precision strike missile. These lead times are generally to deliver the first missiles—not the last ones. Filling inventories requires sustained multiyear investment. Brick-and-mortar investments for factories take even longer.

These challenges don’t have quick or easy solutions. That means we have to begin now. One step is for the Pentagon to reassess total munition requirements for one or more major wars. This might include modeling the expenditure rates of critical guided munitions among land, naval and air forces in a major conflict at various levels of intensity.

The Pentagon also needs to focus on targeted investments in key munitions and weapons systems, such as long-range precision strike and integrated air and missile defenses. These investments should include signing multiyear contracts.

During World War II, U.S. and allied defense industrial production was essential to defeating both Germany and Japan. But it didn’t happen overnight. If the U.S. is serious about competing with China, it needs to put its money where its mouth is. The defense industrial base is a critical place to start.


Such a silly article and such a silly thread.... cannot believe anyone is taking this seriosuly.

You cannot get past one simple fact. China's military is untested as of late and has no operational war experience since the Sino-Vietnamese war where Vietnam fought China to a stalemate. It does not have battlefield experience, not does it have battlefield commanders with experience of war .................. the fact that people think that China can complete with a battle hardened and experienced military of the USA right now is dillusional beyond compare.

How China thinks its military can take on the Americans right now for the next few decades is beyond absurd. We all thought the Russians were still the red-Army of old and the Ukrainian war has proven it is more of a paper tiger and the Chinese Army will fare the same way against the Americans.

The American military industry complex, and institutions of war outclass China. Period.


This is nothing more than a troll post by bejingwalker ....
 
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Such a silly article and such a silly thread.... cannot believe anyone is taking this seriosuly.

You cannot get past one simple fact. China's military is untested as of late and has no operational war experience since the Sino-Vietnamese war where Vietnam fought China to a stalemate. It does not have battlefield experience, not does it have battlefield commanders with experience of war .................. the fact that people think that China can complete with a battle hardened and experienced military of the USA right now is dillusional beyond compare.

How China thinks its military can take on the Americans right now for the next few decades is beyond absurd. We all thought the Russians were still the red-Army of old and the Ukrainian war has proven it is more of a paper tiger and the Chinese Army will fare the same way against the Americans.

The American military industry complex, and institutions of war outclass China. Period.


This is nothing more than a troll post by bejingwalker ....
untested, in other words, China is not a war mongerer like US, and we all see US being tested in Afghanistan. lol..
 
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untested, in other words, China is not a war mongerer like US, and we all see US being tested in Afghanistan. lol..

Yes - totally agree - China is not a war mongerer and USA is.

But that is why militart experience "counts" ... - precisely because the USA is a war mongerer state - it has fine tuned its armed forces and military-industrial complex to perfection. They would wipe the floor with the Chinese military right now ... they would do to China what Ukraine has been doing to Russia now - but 10x worse at least ...

Dont kid yourself about being able to trade military blows with the Americans in a conventional .. it will be a few decades before China can come to challenging .. and keep the nonsense about beating them in a conventional war now - in a dark place ;-) ... and all your logic also excludes all the Allies the Americans have built around the pacific who will help them in a shoot out.

China has come on a long way and is a regional power for sure - but within confined limits because of all of the influence and allies that the USA has built up to contain China..
 
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Yes - totally agree - China is not a war mongerer and USA is.

But that is why militart experience "counts" ... - precisely because the USA is a war mongerer state - it has fine tuned its armed forces and military-industrial complex to perfection. They would wipe the floor with the Chinese military right now ... they would do to China what Ukraine has been doing to Russia now - but 10x worse at least ...
Industrial complex? lol, I wish US can be able to make their own ammos first

The US Military Is Almost Completely Dependent On China For Key Mineral Used In Ammunition: REPORT

 
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Industrial complex? lol, I wish US can be able to make their own ammos first

The US Military Is Almost Completely Dependent On China For Key Mineral Used In Ammunition: REPORT


The Americans will do just fine - dont confuse peace time procurements with war time ....
 
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The Americans will do just fine - dont confuse peace time procurements with war time ....
OK,whatever you say, China has the unrivaled industrial and manufacturing capability, you can also imagine what if China put them all in weapon building in war time mode, no one can beat China in national mobilization, check out how China mobilized to fight Covid,
 
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untested, in other words, China is not a war mongerer like US, and we all see US being tested in Afghanistan. lol..
The US military against the Iraqi Army and the Taliban.

The Parade Line Army (PLA) against university students, Buddhist monks, and assorted religious minorities.

Which tests do you think the world's militaries will study? That was a rhetorical question. The answer is China's, of course. Both of us are warmongers, but one is more immediately applicable -- yours.
 
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The Parade Line Army (PLA) against university students, Buddhist monks, and assorted religious minorities.
Only your brainwashed westerners believe this pathetic lie, you tried this lie in UN and failed every single time, didn't you ?
 
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Such a silly article and such a silly thread.... cannot believe anyone is taking this seriosuly.

You cannot get past one simple fact. China's military is untested as of late and has no operational war experience since the Sino-Vietnamese war where Vietnam fought China to a stalemate. It does not have battlefield experience, not does it have battlefield commanders with experience of war .................. the fact that people think that China can complete with a battle hardened and experienced military of the USA right now is dillusional beyond compare.

How China thinks its military can take on the Americans right now for the next few decades is beyond absurd. We all thought the Russians were still the red-Army of old and the Ukrainian war has proven it is more of a paper tiger and the Chinese Army will fare the same way against the Americans.

The American military industry complex, and institutions of war outclass China. Period.


This is nothing more than a troll post by bejingwalker ....
So is American military doesnt have large scale worthy enemy battle experiences for long time.
 
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God forbid if the U.S. has to go Pitbull.

Better to let them think they will win. Let them overestimate their abilities and let them underestimate ours. When push comes to shove, we shall see. :D
 
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Better to let them think they will win. Let them overestimate their abilities and let them underestimate ours. When push comes to shove, we shall see. :D

I agree; I see too much ego in Chinese members, which makes it difficult to explain things to them or blocks their mental understanding.
This disease is also in Pakistanis, and we see how that ended for the country.

Their reaction is perfectly described by "har gal da jawab honda" without thoroughly understanding.
 
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I agree; I see too much ego in Chinese members, which makes it difficult to explain things to them or blocks their mental understanding.
This disease is also in Pakistanis, and we see how that ended for the country.

Their reaction is perfectly described by "har gal da jawab honda" without thoroughly understanding.

Let us merely rejoice in the iron freindship between China and Pakistan for the reasons you mention above. :D
 
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