I would not claim that this scenario would emerge immediately, but we need to coldly examine reality: China is ascendant, and the US is stagnating. China can focus on Asia, while the US must put out fires all over the world. China-Japan trade volume dwarfs US-Japan trade volume.
If the situation continues as is, by definition, this realignment cannot take place. But just as the US surrendered some power in order to create a US-centric world order (UN, IMF, World Bank, WTO, etc.), it is not inconceivable that one day China will feel strong enough, and secure enough, to do the same. And it's likely at that point that China will tower over even the US economically, which will make China's gravitational pull irresistible. What are now US satellites will become Chinese satellites, out of sheer economic necessity.
I even started a thread called The Road to War (Part III) to track the early indications that this is happening. Witness the American struggle to bring our allies (including Japan) on-side to enforce sanctions against Iran, which look like they will imminently crumble. Observe the European resistance to implementing severe sanctions against Russia, because they have no alternative to Russian oil and gas.
I can imagine the scenario I posted above because the US world order is already in its sunset. It is no longer a question of whether the current security order in East Asia will be maintained, because the US is already strained to the breaking point. My question, directed at @Chinese-Dragon and @Nihonjin1051 , was whether circumstances would dictate a Glasnost/Perestroika between China and Japan in the wake of these changes, or if the vacuum left by the US would create further hostility and instability. @andy_hujian hinted at this in discussing the Chinese perception of America's role vis-a-vis Japan (instigator or suppressor).
Yeah i get your point bro. Yes its true i agree that China will eventually surpass the U.S economically in a decade or two from now, giving its low per capital GDP and large room for growth/potential. However having a higher GDP alone wont make China the worlds super power. The U.S relies on its allies to maintain its supremacy in the world. The U.S has allies virtually everywhere from South America, Canada, mexico, to Europe, to Asia to middle east etc. It also has large military bases in virtually every continent/corner of the globe. This allows it to take actions to protect it interests/install favorable pro U.S governments and deter potential rivals/hostile leaders towards it. Also the U.S still has a huge lead technologically, financially(legal institutions/market/stock exchange),Education(the best Uni in the world which attracts the best Chinese, Indian, russian talents) and cultural hegemony which dominates/influences virtually every country including China(just look at the movies dominating their country its all american, they had to impose foreign movies screening restrictions for a reason) etc.... The lead the U.S has wont be surpass by mere GDP alone(though it will be a big leap for China if./when it achives that).
So that's why i said U.S influence/dominance won't collapse just because China will have a bigger GDP than the U.S , it will require much more than that. It will require them to move to high end manufacturing, better educational facilities/Universities, liberalize it financial markets(which are still very backward, their biggest tech companies cant even list in their own country), invest more in science and technology(should be a priority), allow more freedom of expressions(which will allow their citizens to be more free to take more risks especially in movies and cultural industries), and try to forge better relations with its neighbours, etc.
Last edited: