The Indian Rafale: Why Pakistan Should Celebrate! -Opinion (ALL Rafale posts here please)

[nair]

By opting for only 36 aircraft, IAF has put its main adversary, China and PK out of their comfort zone, and who will now do what they can to neutralize this advantage. So as a move to stay ahead of the curve, its not good enough or big enough. To get here was a long hard bought hand to hand battle in India. Adding another hundred maybe impossible.

You can be rest assured it is not going to be 36........ For time being Yes.......

 

[Hulk]

Today marks the official signing of the long awaited, discussed, contested contract of Rafale aircraft for Indian Air Force. Enter the first western designed fifth generation multi-role fighter aircraft, most suitable for Indian desire of airspace domination over the sub-continent.

However, I find today as the real reason for celebration across many circles, including Pakistan's military community. Why, you may reckon? The procurement of 36 Rafales is exactly where India should not be.

Here is my opinion!

A) The selection of Rafale, after many painstaking years was to replace the Migs of India, which are in hundreds. Out of 120 aircraft, only 36 are being procured, which defeats the purpose of the induction.

B) The French Dassault are notoriously expensive. The "cost through life" of their bird is 6 times any of its contemporary, ensuring that budget will always be short, and always be tight.

C) Till the time the aircraft capabilities are fully realized, it would already be fully neutralized by competitive procurements in the region.

D) Once Indian pilots fly the Rafale, the interest in TEJAS will diminish further, creating an internal battle of buying foreign versus building local, hence jeopardizing both programs.

E) The Rafale aircraft purchase kills the "make in india" dream of the Modi government, which shows that this decision is a panic decision to stop gap fill the entirely low serviceability rates of IAF, combined with shrinking squadron numbers and lack of pilots.

F) The Rafale deal essentially closes the door in Indian Air Force for BAE Systems Eurofighter Typhoon, and BAE Systems ES products. This will re-open the opportunity of other countries to access the platform/avionics from these sources.

G) Rafale program is essentially a lame duck political approach, which exemplifies the military policy of the state being run by civilians, never coming up to the expectation of uniformed professionals.

H) Rafale deal is highly suspected of big bribes from the French to all levels within the Indian administration, MOD, and IAF, which will eventually come out and further derail any future procurement plans of IAF to meet the existing and future requirements.

Such a long post missing key things. Rafale is not Mig 21 replacement, we are buying Rafale with specific purpose limited role. Manohar Parkiar do not want to go with 126 Rafales as it will too costly. Most likely minimum of 18 more will be ordered later. Now your post seems very odd, you seems to be trying to tell India that hey don;t buy Rafale it will kill LCA. Leave that to us man, first they are not same class which a civilian like me known by now. Not sure what you are trying to say. If we like Rafale and we want to buy more we will buy it, our financial condition is good and getting better.

 

[PAKISTANFOREVER]

One thing is for sure though ... trudging along with the game plan of just procuring JF-17s (its later block iterations) and used but upgraded F-16s isn't going to cut it any more. Pakistan needs to acquire some extra muscle from somewhere somehow ... or else an air conflict in the future may just turn into a turkey shoot in the adversaries favor.

I congratulate our Indian members on the signing of the Rafale deal. Even 36 of these platforms can reign havoc to our air, ground and strategic assets. Low RCS, advanced radar, very potent EW suite and long ranged accurate weapons ... nothing to be taken lightly.

Just my 2 cents.

As much as I don't like it, I have to unfortunately agree with you here. We need to get some top of the range fighters in good numbers too.

 

[C130]

the deal was a lemon but the Rafale isn't. even 36 can pretty much handle all of Pakistan F-16s and JF-17.

India economy is growing as is it's military budget. Pakistan should be worried especially if India buys another batch of 36 on better terms.

 

[Skull and Bones]

the deal was a lemon but the Rafale isn't. even 36 can pretty much handle all of Pakistan F-16s and JF-17.

India economy is growing as is it's military budget. Pakistan should be worried especially if India buys another batch of 36 on better terms.

This 36 is a stop gap measure to compensate for the delays in negotiations to make Rafales in India. Be very sure, Rafales will be made in India, and eventually we will induct more than 150 Rafales over time.

And there might be a possibility of a second line of fighters. possibly Gripen.

 

[Lord Of Gondor]

The purpose of an opinion blog is to incite debate, which I have. In my profession, that is called a DH. Only some of the ultra smart ones picked up on my sarcasm. The deal today means the PAF comfort zone is now over, and something needs to be done. Sorry to disappoint some of my fans that expect only "great" information. Its okay to be mediocre, and also okay to be wrong.

For the all the personal attacks, insults, etc, maybe you forget that I can intentionally choose to sound dumb so that you can rapid fire all your information, sometimes even classified ones. There is a lesson there for some, if they will learn. When i was learning to fly, at 3000 i used to be mesmerized by how oblivious the people down on the ground were. You will never have our perspective, as you not been there, not felt it, not seen it, and not thought about it. My IP used to call me a poet. I never claimed to have any such credentials.

When you become completely impartial (Mige 23, 27, Mig 21, irrelevant, since this is not MRCA tender no more), and think about some of the points I raise, then they will create a discussion and debate. Otherwise, if you are here on an agenda, you can continue to spew hate and ridicule me, it bothers me no more.

I would love to have detailed discussion on some of the points I made, both agree and disagree with them, but for that I wish this forum was a bite more mature, than just a flag waving brouhaha. I disagree with some already, but they have the decency to write their disagreement in a cordial fashion. The pedestrian seem to be the majority.

If decency returns to this thread, I would love to have the discussion with all men here, from PK or IN.

BR

India has added three important new types of fighters to its arsenal in the last 15 years.
The Su30MKI, MiG29K and the Tejas.
All very capable and the Su having a very effective Radar(the IAF specified mode on the BARS went live less than 5 years ago, iirc), the MiG 29K is a massive leap of capability from our old Harriers and Tejas is better than the MiG21 in all respects.
In roughly the same time, the MiG27 had upgrades(for just 2 sqns) that add a lot of teeth.
Also the humble Jaguar underwent the Display,Attack and Ranging (DARIN) III upgrade on the Maritime Strike Sqn.(the Strike aircraft are being upgraded as of now).The Jaguar will also get the very modern AIM132 ASRAAM into its weapons suite.
The MiG29 UPG program has progressed and the fighter now has full spectrum A2G capability and an improved(Zhuk M2E vs the Zhuk ME on the Naval MiG)Radar along with better engines(RD33 Series 3), more fuel capacity and IFR probe addition.
The Mirage 2000 also has been upgraded to the -5Mk2 standard with a new Radar and India has acquired the MICA weapon which adds lethality.
IAF has also concentrated on the training with vast numbers of the BAE Hawk and Pilatus PC7 added into the service.
IAF also regularly exercises with the Singaporean F16 C/D models(India and Pak both seem to have similar numbers of F16C/D's on their territory!)
IAF is replacing MiG21s with Su30 which is a massive qualitative jump.
The Rafale with its amazing EW abilities will definitely give IAF an upper hand.

Good video that gives an insight into the capabilities of the MiG29K.
The Elta jammer is another good addition.

 

[illusion8]

I agree that already IAF has too many platforms and want to cut down types.

Russian migs and sukhois (including FGFA) - common platform
French mirages and Rafales - common platform.

LCA - local..

Not really that many platforms.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

@Bilal Khan 777
I have refrained from commenting here bcz i knew what you did with your opening post. At times when folks lower the level of threshold, many folks mis fire and among that misfires you collect the most tangible responses which for most of the eyes looks normal, but to the eyes of a professional, it looks like a gold mine.

Indeed the days of holding upto whatever strategy for PAF and PN as of today holds no more value. As a professional and someone whom i personally hold at high esteem owing to your viewpoints, i sincerely believe a rapid new strategy will be unveiled by Pakistan.

About cost, numbers and everything. I would say you can always find out more as you will have access to many such assessments. You were one of the only few ppl who had said kalavari could react 450m and you were in fact pretty close to the figure with which Kalavari did extensive tests. So i saying anything would look childish in front of the data which you will already have in some form.

I do wish to make one small opinion - The kind of customization and restrictions to any aircraft major like Dassault group in which the deal has an mandatory option of 50% of deal value to be invested in India and 74% of the offset goes on local MIC based procurement of components for these Rafales and 26% for the TOT enabling part will give you a vital clue of what we are aiming here..

Indeed it will utterly foolish on the part of our planners if we spend so much of an exorbitant cost for just 36 and in Trappiers own word this is just first of many deals. The conditions of the offsets and the Eric Trappier quotes from interview indicates the Make In India production line point. To a specific point we do have a requirement of 15 squadrons of this weight category. The Rafales produced in India over time will be 10-15% cheaper owing to massive difference in Labour costs and since Trappier is clear that they will like to nurture a private sector company for strategic partnership and to create a ecosystem to build such a plane and improve the over all skillsets.

As a sound planner and a strategist, today marks a decisive victory for both IAF/In and PAF/PN. Yes my side now knows whats coming in big numbers. and Your side knows you cannot delay anymore the plan to identify and procure new jets to meet the evolving threat index. We might be passionate about our Tejas like your side is with JF17, but we both know we cannot kid ourselves of new emerging threats when we say get Rafale+Super Sukhoi+FGFA later and in your side a MLU F16 which is now not so modern+ some plan for a 5th gen jet which is yet not clear. (I have kept aside JF17 Blk3 for non emotional reason.) In a way and as a avid planner, i think this is a blessing for Pakistan. Now all the upper echelon cannot be complacent nor be blind for their love of existing assets type alone. result will be quick scramble to find a solution. But i worry and i hope really you dont go for quick fix, rather find solutions which can meet the long term needs but with calm cool thinking instead of knee jerk reaction of buying something for 2 sqds and proclaiming we have bought deterrence against Indian Rafale acquisition.

Hope i am not offensive in any manner, as i said what i felt i should say dispassionately and with a straight logical+rational approach.

 

[illusion8]

By opting for only 36 aircraft, IAF has put its main adversary, China and PK out of their comfort zone, and who will now do what they can to neutralize this advantage. So as a move to stay ahead of the curve, its not good enough or big enough. To get here was a long hard bought hand to hand battle in India. Adding another hundred maybe impossible.

China and Pakistan are western sanctioned (mostly) countries..The highest tech option for both countries are Russian legacy technology or Chinese reverse engineered tech...

The Russians are playing it smart - handing the chinese a few su35's while giving India 5th generation and super sukhois. Pakistan is stuck with chinese jets for a long time to come...I don't see anything else coming into its inventory.

I practically don't see a comparison other than the Chinese numbers as a counter foil.

 

[C130]

This 36 is a stop gap measure to compensate for the delays in negotiations to make Rafales in India. Be very sure, Rafales will be made in India, and eventually we will induct more than 150 Rafales over time.

And there might be a possibility of a second line of fighters. possibly Gripen.

yeah I figured as much. Rafale is without a doubt will be the most advance fighter in India arsenal for the next 5 to 10 years!! depending on how fast Pak-FA comes along.

if made in India Rafale can be produced for like $80 to 90$ million that would be huge.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

@Bilal Khan 777
I have refrained from commenting here bcz i knew what you did with your opening post. At times when folks lower the level of threshold, many folks mis fire and among that misfires you collect the most tangible responses which for most of the eyes looks normal, but to the eyes of a professional, it looks like a gold mine.

Indeed the days of holding upto whatever strategy for PAF and PN as of today holds no more value. As a professional and someone whom i personally hold at high esteem owing to your viewpoints, i sincerely believe a rapid new strategy will be unveiled by Pakistan.

About cost, numbers and everything. I would say you can always find out more as you will have access to many such assessments. You were one of the only few ppl who had said kalavari could react 450m and you were in fact pretty close to the figure with which Kalavari did extensive tests. So i saying anything would look childish in front of the data which you will already have in some form.

I do wish to make one small opinion - The kind of customization and restrictions to any aircraft major like Dassault group in which the deal has an mandatory option of 50% of deal value to be invested in India and 74% of the offset goes on local MIC based procurement of components for these Rafales and 26% for the TOT enabling part will give you a vital clue of what we are aiming here..

Indeed it will utterly foolish on the part of our planners if we spend so much of an exorbitant cost for just 36 and in Trappiers own word this is just first of many deals. The conditions of the offsets and the Eric Trappier quotes from interview indicates the Make In India production line point. To a specific point we do have a requirement of 15 squadrons of this weight category. The Rafales produced in India over time will be 10-15% cheaper owing to massive difference in Labour costs and since Trappier is clear that they will like to nurture a private sector company for strategic partnership and to create a ecosystem to build such a plane and improve the over all skillsets.

As a sound planner and a strategist, today marks a decisive victory for both IAF/In and PAF/PN. Yes my side now knows whats coming in big numbers. and Your side knows you cannot delay anymore the plan to identify and procure new jets to meet the evolving threat index. We might be passionate about our Tejas like your side is with JF17, but we both know we cannot kid ourselves of new emerging threats when we say get Rafale+Super Sukhoi+FGFA later and in your side a MLU F16 which is now not so modern+ some plan for a 5th gen jet which is yet not clear. (I have kept aside JF17 Blk3 for non emotional reason.) In a way and as a avid planner, i think this is a blessing for Pakistan. Now all the upper echelon cannot be complacent nor be blind for their love of existing assets type alone. result will be quick scramble to find a solution. But i worry and i hope really you dont go for quick fix, rather find solutions which can meet the long term needs but with calm cool thinking instead of knee jerk reaction of buying something for 2 sqds and proclaiming we have bought deterrence against Indian Rafale acquisition.

Hope i am not offensive in any manner, as i said what i felt i should say dispassionately and with a straight logical+rational approach.

Sound logic, and cordial statement. Thank you for sharing your valuable opinion.

Just one question..how will PAF counter meteor and spectra combo?
Meteor cant be countered by any AAM in PAF inventory now or in foreseeable future.as far as i see it unless americans gave their latest AIM-120D which just entered production.

This is a valid question, and will be a significant challenge to all in the theatre.

They will say Chinese PL-15, because every weapon in Chinese inventory, is automatically theirs and every Chinese weapons are ready to Rock and Roll, without passing all the test, and induction.

The weapons China makes for themselves are of highest order. For the export market is another story.

 

[Blue Marlin]

Did the IAF not express concerns aboug T50 not meeting their requirements for stealth? This has been in the news. I agree that already IAF has too many platforms and want to cut down types. I suspect they will hedge their bets and wjichever pronect comes along sooner nd better will be adopted.
I suspect the engine will come in handy for TEJAS as well as commonality may well be an economical way to go.
A

im not aware of the iaf even knowing the stealth characteristics of the t-50 in terms of ram coatings.
now that the indians have seen European high end kit they now know how high to set the bar. this can be used as an indicator to see how advanced the t-50 really is. the problems have been petty so far and will likely flow as the su-30 did and let them pay for development of the dual seater and they can use it too. they did this with the mki which is now the russain sm version.

as for the engine for the tejas, realistically there will be the gef414 which will go on the tejas mk2 and likely the amca due to commonality. and reports are suggesting that they(ge414) wont be produced in india as they have not made a large order. so if they choose an americain fighter in large numbers they wil be able to get a licence for the engine and the fighter too.

and when i said using a french core for their engine? it wont happen. it will just be a sh!t show where there will be one class of engine 100-120kn but with 3 engines. m88,ge414, and the indigenous engine.

they will get the m88 for the rafale the the ge414 for the tejas and possibly the amca and thats it.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

Article is full of errors and try hard to have a 'feel good'.
A. India has a mix of 120 Mig-21s and 80 Mig-27s to replace in coming years...Options are 36 Rafale+ 120 Tejas( mk1+ mk1A)+ 90 Other fighters under consideration for Make in India( Rafale is a candidate too).
B. French systems are expensive, no doubt there but then Its worth it.
C. Only if you think that India will be sitting idle after this deal....after this we have Super sukhoi upgrades, 90 other fighters under MII, FGFA, Tejas and so on programs to follow.
D. Apples and Oranges....Rafale is a medium class jet and Tejas is there to fill gap of a light fighter. Both are gonna have entirely different roles and doctrines.
E. You are not informed or properly updated then. Make in India program of 90 more aircraft is there and F-16s, F-18s , Gripen and Rafale are candidates. Also 36 off the shelf Rafales will give enough time to negotiate the deal under MII.
F, G and H. Its BS to say the least. At the end 'Grapes are sour'.
@Abingdonboy @Taygibay @Nilgiri

Far from reality, I congratulate India on Rafale contract. However, i invite you to dispassionately think about the other side of the equation.

@Bilal Khan 777

With the Rafale deal ; India is NOT just getting Planes

It is about a whole new level of Industrial and TECHNOLOGICAL benefits

We are spending BIG money to get MANY good technologies
in Various DEFENCE related sectors

This will be evident as time goes by

This is a wise move in India with "Make in India". However the first deal is about 36 jets and all offsets are later.

Our Jf-17's will be blasted out of the sky by these Rafale's, We got any plans to get a GOOD fighter jet?

I disagree. Air Battle is fought by pilots, not robots. The result of an air battle depends on sound thinking and strategy. have a heart. Your side is not sleeping and trains hard.

Just months ago, PAF could not afford to buy 8 x F-16.
Don't think a lot have changed since then.

Fact is that Pakistan needs to build an economy, and take care of its citizens,
more than trying to compete with an economy that almost dwarves Yours.

It is the same country that chose to eat grass to make nuclear weapons. With a striving economy, and justifications from India, capital purchase for Army and AF maybe scheduled already. Pakistan may continue to surprise keynesians like yourself.

Did you brace yourself for the full onslaught before posting this opinion for the whole troll brigade

On a serious note, I'll love to read detailed arguments for each of the points you have mentioned. Thanks

I am a soldier. I met my intended goal. BR

Hope India provides more of such occasions for Pakistan to celebrate....




picture abhi baaki hai. yeh toh bas shuruaat hai (Translation - This is end of the beginning and not the end itself. More follow-on deals to come)




RAFALEs would beat any comparable fighter on Life Cycle Costing (LCC).



Like what? J-20 & J-31? I would take a well oiled 4.5 gen fighter to a half cooked 5th gen fighter. Though SU-35s and Eurofighter Typhoon would be competitive. India should and would use all power at its disposal to prevent these procurements by Pakistan.



RAFALEs would enhance Indian indigenous effort through the renewed interest in the proposed partnership on Kaveri engine program.



Make in India (MII) would include offsets from RAFALEs, FGFAs, F-16s & Gripens etc.. Its not a one program take all scheme.



May be but we still have deals with BAE like M777 howitzer..



Better late than never.. The incumbent government did a splendid job in resurrecting the dead deal and successfully closing it in one and half years.



May or may not happen but what is important is that the much maligned Bofors guns saved the day for India during Kargil and without any doubt RAFALEs will play their role when India needs them.

Your opinion is valued. Thanks.

aren't the submarines bought on concessional loans ??
pakistan's naval budget is $750 million

Capital purchases are treated differently.

I am keen to understand the resources /technology you referring too.

AND please donmt be so agitated or angry its a forum for godsake

Please ask specifically. I am all about a cordial discussion sir.

Sir, with respect I beg to differ regarding most of your points. I will comment on just few points.

Though 36 is a limited purchase yet these jets may pose big threat to PAF/Pakistan with exception of China. Further they may purchase more in future to pose real challenge to China.

Another point regarding Euro fighter closure is not actually closure as they may not require two platforms having identical capabilities. Further USA is ready to shift F16/F18 manufacturing to India and they may be assumed to be latest blocks.

The bribes are involved in almost all defense deals and stable economy like India will not be effected.

IAF already handling an expensive fighter jet like SU30 so they may done all calculations.

Now it's PAF turn to get modern jet to compete Rafael like Euro Fighter as yet Chinese fighters latest blocks are still maturing. Further PA should get some LRSAMs with modern radars to secure major cities/installations. Pak has time span of about 3-4 years for that.

Your opinion is valued, and the purpose of my post is to encourage the exact argument that you have made.

 

[Armoured Division]

no doubt a very capable strike fighter, the main problem will be the exorbitant cost to purchase and maintain. Im happy with the timelines , by the time you get it and fully induct it in 6 years, we would be getting the J31 which will be way ahead so now you will neither have quantitative nor qualitative advantage meanwhile many including french and indian politicians will laugh all the way to the bank.

Most military systems take time to arrive for example you ordered Chinese Subs in 2015, but they will be arriving only from 2022-23.

 

[Bilal Khan 777]

India want's diversification. It is tired of the Russians escalating prices and delaying time lines. France has been a trusted country for such key defense equipment so it was always going to be the French. Although, US-India relations are on a high, India will not buy key defense equipment from them for now.

What this does is deliver a straight forward message to all Counties wanting to sell defense equipment to India that it has several options. Wait and watch how both US and the Russia will now improve their contracts, rules and delivery procedures for India.

We are late but we are getting there. The long negotiation also has a positive, that is, India will not budge easily. It's something every vendor will notice. Our next negotiation, hopefully, has delivered this message and we have also learnt from our own mistakes.

All in all, very positive as far as India is concerned.

India's procurement system, and its follies, are notorious.