The Fight against PKK Terrorism

[Kiryu]

You are telling me to sit and watch like always and let Kerkuk to be part of the whole sh!t? I am wondering what will be the answer of the Iraqi Turkmen to your message. Dont you realize that if KRG get independence the same is going to happen in Turkey? Maybe not now but in 20 years. The situation is we or them. Nobody in the region likes them. So its good opportunity. If Iraq central government gets all of the control in the country even with hardcore methods that means that we will not trade with Barzani but instead with Iraq and Iran. Iran is using PKK against us we used KRG against them. This could be the end of all.

I did say we could support Kurdish independence so long as they pull out of Kirkuk and the Turkmen towns down to Kifri. Could doesn't mean should. It's an option depending how things pan out.
I think the Turkmens in Iraq would welcome their rights being a key demand for a change.
Point is we need to be more flexible instead of digging ourselves in and letting others exploit us when we do, then when it inevitably turns to crap we aren't at the mercy of others (US/Russia). Like we are in Syria.
But sitting back doesn't mean do nothing. Let the PMU go in first. Then let's have our options open should the KRG turn to Turkey for help. In the meantime our forces in Iraq should focus on taking Kandil mountains. It's the best time to make such a move. Iraq, if they want our support won't complain too much about it and should Iran get divergent ideas down the road then there will be a contingency of tens of thousands of Turkish troops inside Iraq and that puts us in a way better position come what may.

One thing we should of learnt from Syria is nothing goes according to plan. It might seem simple now, go in bomb them all and take control but there are way too many factors involved to work that way. Too much treachery and too many conflicting interests.

 

[kartal1]

I did say we could support Kurdish independence so long as they pull out of Kirkuk and the Turkmen towns down to Kifri. Could doesn't mean should. It's an option depending how things pan out.
I think the Turkmens in Iraq would welcome their rights being a key demand for a change.
Point is we need to be more flexible instead of digging ourselves in and letting others exploit us when we do, then when it inevitably turns to crap we aren't at the mercy of others (US/Russia). Like we are in Syria.
But sitting back doesn't mean do nothing. Let the PMU go in first. Then let's have our options open should the KRG turn to Turkey for help. In the meantime our forces in Iraq should focus on taking Kandil mountains. It's the best time to make such a move. Iraq, if they want our support won't complain too much about it and should Iran get divergent ideas down the road then there will be a contingency of tens of thousands of Turkish troops inside Iraq and that puts us in a way better position come what may.

One thing we should of learnt from Syria is nothing goes according to plan. It might seem simple now, go in bomb them all and take control but there are way too many factors involved to work that way. Too much treachery and too many conflicting interests.

I support you on the most of the points except independent Kurdistan. At the moment all of the Kurdish groups are allied that means we must not make exceptions about who is good and who is bad. The conflict between KDP and PUK was about power. Now when we know that Barzani will be out soon and Kurdistan will be formed their conflicts are at halt in the name of independent Kurdistan. That means if somebody attack the area they will fight together. KDP and PUK peshmerga + PKK and all of its wings. We have an army over there that have the command over tens of thousands skilled militia fighters. I am supporting you on the claim that its the best moment to attack Kandil but if we attack Kandil we are attacking Kurdistan. If we attack Kurdistan the "Kurdish army" must protect it. The best military move that we can make is to launch joint operation with Iran on multiple fronts. Iran-Iraq-Turkey border and Sinjar. I think the PMU will be able to handle the situation in Kirkuk. If we control Sinjar that means we are controlling the future plans for unification with Rojava. After all I think we must have an military base there. Erdogan will meet Ruhani by the way. Lets wait and see what is going to happen. Helicopters and jets also joined the military drills on Habur.

 

[Kiryu]

There are pros and cons for an independent Kurdistan in Iraq which is why I would rather Turkey take a more flexible position.
Priority right now is Qandil mountains. Winter is coming . We should be flexible enough to deal with any changes on the ground. Whoever backs us on Qandil will gain our support.

If Turkey can secure Qandil it will be a prized possession for her. The PKK's main base deep in the heart of Kurdish country. Tough terrain, excellent for training and almost impossible for an outside force to attack any Turkish positions due to the steep rocky mountains. Even the PKK need to use horses to get about since the roads can't reach high up the mountain range. Saddam couldn't push the Peshmergeh out of Qandil in the past, and today the Peshmergeh can't push the PKK out because of the environment. So if Turkey can take it no one can push them out.

There isn't going to be a reward for Turkey from Iraq or Iran if Turkey help them defeat the KRG referendum. Half the Qandil mountains are in Iran, do you really think they would want Turkish troops right up at their border? Who's to say Iraq will be alright with Turkish troops entering Iraq? Look how they were with the Bashiqah base. Iraq will oppose any Turkish presence in Iraq anyway and claim their sovereignty is being violated.
If the peshmergah and Iraqi and PMU forces are battling it out in Kirkuk, Erbil and Sulimaniyah then Turkey can use the ambiguity around the sovereignty of the area to remain there until both sides can decide whose country it is.

So in a scenario where Iraq and Iran oppose a Turkish control over the Qandil mountains, a de facto independent Kurdistan (outwith the Turkmen strip) can work in our favour.
But if Turkey goes in full blown hand in hand with Iran/Baghdad, then that option is out which leaves us in a complete loss if Iran were to backstab us down the line and deny Turkish presence in anywhere in Iraq. This can only be averted if Turkey has a large presence in Iraq making it hard for Iran to close the door on us.
So whoever supports us on Qandil will determine our actions.

But your right, let's wait and see what happens after Erdogan meets Rouhani and Putin. Perhaps, in Tehrans eyes, Qandil will be a small price to keep Iraq's unity. Turkey can't be expected to burn all her bridges with the KRG and gain nothing in return.

 

[kartal1]

There are pros and cons for an independent Kurdistan in Iraq which is why I would rather Turkey take a more flexible position.
Priority right now is Qandil mountains. Winter is coming . We should be flexible enough to deal with any changes on the ground. Whoever backs us on Qandil will gain our support.

If Turkey can secure Qandil it will be a prized possession for her. The PKK's main base deep in the heart of Kurdish country. Tough terrain, excellent for training and almost impossible for an outside force to attack any Turkish positions due to the steep rocky mountains. Even the PKK need to use horses to get about since the roads can't reach high up the mountain range. Saddam couldn't push the Peshmergeh out of Qandil in the past, and today the Peshmergeh can't push the PKK out because of the environment. So if Turkey can take it no one can push them out.

There isn't going to be a reward for Turkey from Iraq or Iran if Turkey help them defeat the KRG referendum. Half the Qandil mountains are in Iran, do you really think they would want Turkish troops right up at their border? Who's to say Iraq will be alright with Turkish troops entering Iraq? Look how they were with the Bashiqah base. Iraq will oppose any Turkish presence in Iraq anyway and claim their sovereignty is being violated.
If the peshmergah and Iraqi and PMU forces are battling it out in Kirkuk, Erbil and Sulimaniyah then Turkey can use the ambiguity around the sovereignty of the area to remain there until both sides can decide whose country it is.

So in a scenario where Iraq and Iran oppose a Turkish control over the Qandil mountains, a de facto independent Kurdistan (outwith the Turkmen strip) can work in our favour.
But if Turkey goes in full blown hand in hand with Iran/Baghdad, then that option is out which leaves us in a complete loss if Iran were to backstab us down the line and deny Turkish presence in anywhere in Iraq. This can only be averted if Turkey has a large presence in Iraq making it hard for Iran to close the door on us.
So whoever supports us on Qandil will determine our actions.

But your right, let's wait and see what happens after Erdogan meets Rouhani and Putin. Perhaps, in Tehrans eyes, Qandil will be a small price to keep Iraq's unity. Turkey can't be expected to burn all her bridges with the KRG and gain nothing in return.

I dont trust KRG because of the reason I stated before. They are united and want Kurdistan. Do you think that they will stop by just independent Kurdistan in Iraq? I dont think so. If Kurdistan get to a state that is internationally recognized country with economy they will have more power. Even now they can stick their noses where they want in the region. About our presence in Iraq. Everything is tied to the deal we will have with them. They know that if we want we can make a deal with them and we can allow them to get an economy strong enough in order to survive. The deal in my mind is looking like this. We fight them (KDP-PUK-PKK) together. We will imply embargo over them and will close our borders. We will fight them on our borders and will guarantee you the assistance of the Turkish Air Force. If you want them to fail you will let us establish an military bases in Kandil and Sinjar with a preventive role for incoming threats from the same kind. If not we will let our borders, airspace and economic power open for them and will assist them with arms, training and advisors against you. It will be fatal for us after some time but will be fatal for you also. Everyone wins or everyone loses. What do you choose?

 

[Kiryu]

I dont trust KRG because of the reason I stated before. They are united and want Kurdistan. Do you think that they will stop by just independent Kurdistan in Iraq? I dont think so. If Kurdistan get to a state that is internationally recognized country with economy they will have more power. Even now they can stick their noses where they want in the region. About our presence in Iraq. Everything is tied to the deal we will have with them. They know that if we want we can make a deal with them and we can allow them to get an economy strong enough in order to survive. The deal in my mind is looking like this. We fight them (KDP-PUK-PKK) together. We will imply embargo over them and will close our borders. We will fight them on our borders and will guarantee you the assistance of the Turkish Air Force. If you want them to fail you will let us establish an military bases in Kandil and Sinjar with a preventive role for incoming threats from the same kind. If not we will let our borders, airspace and economic power open for them and will assist them with arms, training and advisors against you. It will be fatal for us after some time but will be fatal for you also. Everyone wins or everyone loses. What do you choose?

I think if Kurdistan became an independent country then the rules will change and Kurdistani interference in Turkey, in particular support towards the PKK would be a direct act of war. It's no longer about pseudo state actors but a state directly funding/arming a terrorist group.
Stopping the referendum and counter PKK actions probably wont even be linked anyway. If Iraq, Turkey and Iran all close the border at the same time then the referendum is dead. But that wont mean we are any closer to securing Kandil. That relies upon either Tehran/Baghdad supporting it, Erbil supporting it or Iraq and the KRG going head to head. So far there is no indication Baghdad will even want to fight the peshmerga. They were happy to tolerate Erbil before the referendum so who's to say they wont after it's defeated. They might not even go after Kirkuk, and even less likely to go beyond.
If Turkey takes unilateral action against the PKK during the winter then Baghdad and Tehran will oppose it no matter what happens with the referendum.
So which is more important? Killing the referendum or securing Kandil? If the referendum then go ahead, close the border, talk tough and wait till its dead. If Kandil, then we should be more flexible.

 

[kartal1]

I think if Kurdistan became an independent country then the rules will change and Kurdistani interference in Turkey, in particular support towards the PKK would be a direct act of war. It's no longer about pseudo state actors but a state directly funding/arming a terrorist group.
Stopping the referendum and counter PKK actions probably wont even be linked anyway. If Iraq, Turkey and Iran all close the border at the same time then the referendum is dead. But that wont mean we are any closer to securing Kandil. That relies upon either Tehran/Baghdad supporting it, Erbil supporting it or Iraq and the KRG going head to head. So far there is no indication Baghdad will even want to fight the peshmerga. They were happy to tolerate Erbil before the referendum so who's to say they wont after it's defeated. They might not even go after Kirkuk, and even less likely to go beyond.
If Turkey takes unilateral action against the PKK during the winter then Baghdad and Tehran will oppose it no matter what happens with the referendum.
So which is more important? Killing the referendum or securing Kandil? If the referendum then go ahead, close the border, talk tough and wait till its dead. If Kandil, then we should be more flexible.

I think that the separation between KDP-PUK-PKK ended in the moment when PKK entered Kirkuk. Even PKK clearly said that "An attack over Southern Kurdistan will be considered an attack over all of Kurdistan" they are united under one goal. We must kill their dream- Kurdistan. I will tell it again KDP-PUK-PKK are all one and united before the supreme goal that they have been fighting for decades to complete. Supporting independent Iraqi Kurdistan means supporting the partition of Turkey, Syria and Iran in the future. Dont be naive to think that they will work with us. Their goal is clear.

They worked with us because we allowed that region to rise. We worked with them because they were against
PUK-PKK. Now when PUK-PKK and KDP are united why they will work with us? To form an stable economy and then? When they rise their intelligence organizations and military what do you think they will do? With foreign help in a state that they are internationally recognized as a independent country they will be untouchable. Just imagine all the US and NATO bases there. Conflict will rise and they will accuse you of genocide over the Kurds. Over their diaspora. Imagine if US gives them air defense systems. Let alone the stingers for a country of this size even long range air defense system will be good. They will be able to scan all of our movements and even Turkish bird will not be allowed to enter Kurdish airspace. I think we must not allow this to happen. I prefer killed Kurdistan together with PKK and to earn Iraq, Syria and Iran our neighbours as friends instead of independent Kurdistan that will work for the separation of my country. "A land that have not tasted the blood of Sehit have no price". Our land is precious.

 

[Dinky]

Iran blocks flights to Iraq’s Kurdish region ahead of independence vote
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...704f92-9d54-11e7-b2a7-bc70b6f98089_story.html

Iran halts Iraqi Kurdistan flights ahead of referendum
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/...istan-flights-referendum-170924130811298.html

 

[Khagan1923]

Iraqi Army will join the Turkish Army in their drills in the north of Iraq/South of Turkey.

 

[-------]

Iraqi Army will join the Turkish Army in their drills in the north of Iraq/South of Turkey.

Source ?

 

[TheCamelGuy]

Source ?

Turkish prime minister said it, was agreed upon during chiefs of staff meeting in Ankara

 

[-------]

Turkish prime minister said it, was agreed upon during chiefs of staff meeting in Ankara

Major shift hey, from threatening to strike Turkish troops in Iraq and propping up PKK to joint exercises..

 

[T-123456]

Major shift hey, from threatening to strike Turkish troops in Iraq and propping up PKK to joint exercises..

''You are not my equal,know your place''.

 

[Hamzza]

Don't be shocked if turkey does not use military intervention by tomorrow, because I know I won't be shocked.

 

[-------]

Don't be shocked if turkey does not use military intervention by tomorrow, because I know I won't be shocked.

It's a non-binding vote, this is all show for now..

 

[TheCamelGuy]

It's a non-binding vote, this is all show for now..

It's for show but it reveals their intention, and this situation would be far more dangerous if they had a strong backer like the US, whilst unlikely it could happen in the future, therefor this opportunity has to be taken to crush the KRG.