The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Sineva]

German Minister Confirms US Threatened Tariffs on EU over Iran

https://www.bourseandbazaar.com/new...onfirms-us-threatened-tariffs-on-eu-over-iran

Iran accused European governments Thursday of sacrificing a troubled 2015 nuclear deal to avoid trade reprisals from US President Donald Trump who has spent nearly two years trying to scupper it.

Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Trump was again behaving like a "high school bully" and the decision by Britain, France and Germany to heed his pressure to lodge a complaint over Iranian compliance deprived them of any right to claim the moral high ground.

The three governments "sold out remnants of #JCPOA (the nuclear deal) to avoid new Trump tariffs," Zarif charged.

"It won't work my friends. You only whet his appetite. Remember your high school bully?"

Germany's defence minister on Thursday confirmed a Washington Post report that the United States had threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on imports of European cars if EU governments continued to back the nuclear deal.

"This expression or threat, as you will, does exist," Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer told a news conference during a visit to London.

Zarif said Europe's unwillingness to antagonise the United States made a mockery of its stated determination to rescue the nuclear deal.

"If you want to sell your integrity, go ahead," Zarif tweeted. "But DO NOT assume high moral/legal ground."

The European states triggered a dispute mechanism established under the deal, which allows a party to claim significant non-compliance by another party before a joint commission, with appeals possible to an advisory board and ultimately to the UN Security Council.

Since Washington pulled out of the agreement and reimposed crippling unilateral sanctions in 2018, EU governments have sought to find a way to allow European businesses to continue trading with Iran without incurring huge US penalties.

As its economy has gone into reverse, an increasingly frustrated Iran has hit back with the step-by-step suspension of its own commitments under the deal.

The three European governments said they lodged their complaint in response to the latest step by Tehran suspending the limit on the number of centrifuges it uses to enrich uranium.

Speaking in India on Wednesday, Zarif already questioned how the European Union could allow itself to be "bullied" by Washington when it was the world's largest economy.

He warned the three EU governments party to the deal that their complaint could backfire, charging that they themselves were in violation because they had fallen in line with the US sanctions.

"They are not buying oil from us, all of their companies have withdrawn from Iran. So Europe is in violation," he said.

Zarif held talks in New Delhi on Thursday with EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell.

An EU statement said the two had "a frank dialogue" in which Borrell "underlined the continued interest of the European Union to preserve the agreement".

The cooling of Iran's relations with Europe comes at a time of red-hot tensions with the United States since a US drone strike in Iraq killed a top Iranian Revolutionary Guards commander earlier this month.


Looks like the truth is out...

 

[yavar]

Iran AEOI installs Arak heavy water nuclear reactor’s secondary circuit as fifth phase of reducing JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) obligations
https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2019...ear-reactor-Arak-Second-Circuit-United-States

Iran Arak Khandab Heavy Water Reactor; Reactor Cap Manufacturing and Installation as fifth phase of reducing JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) obligations

Iran in The final step to the reduction Iran nuclear deal ends all JCPOA (Iran nuclear deal) obligations
https://www.tehrantimes.com/news/443820/Iran-takes-fifth-and-last-step-to-end-commitment-to-JCPOA

==============================================

European countries ( England. France, Germany) started trigger mechanism ( also known as snapback sanction at UNSC in JCPOA Iran nuclear deal) on Iran after U.S. Trump threaten them with sanction
https://www.ft.com/content/01f0b004-36b9-11ea-a6d3-9a26f8c3cba4

Javad Zarif (@JZarif) Twitter

https://twitter.com/x/status/1217682343118458880

https://twitter.com/x/status/1217499610228199424

Days before Europeans warned Iran of nuclear deal violations, Trump secretly threatened to impose 25% tariff on European autos if they didn’t
https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...3ea8ce-37a9-11ea-a01d-b7cc8ec1a85d_story.html

 

[yavar]

Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043

 

[skyshadow]

good to know


Iran has capacity to enrich uranium at any percentage - nuclear agency



"At the moment, if (Iranian authorities) make the decision, the Atomic Energy Organization, as the executor, will be able to enrich uranium at any percentage," Ali Asghar Zarean said.




https://www.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Iran-has-capacity-to-enrich-at-any-percentage-report-615315

 

[Sineva]

It seems that as far as the jcpoa is concerned the clock has been turned back to the mid 2000s and the era of "freeze for freeze",or in this case freezing the jcpoa disputes mechanism so long as iran keeps its nuclear program frozen at its current levels.The intent seems to be to either buy time and keep the deal alive [in name only] while hoping [praying?] for the election of a post trump democratic president in 2021,who will then hopefully return to the deal,or that in the case of a trump reelection that the iranians will finally see "sense" and negotiate a "new" us-iran deal [altho in that case what does either side then need the eurovassals for?].

https://www.wsj.com/articles/europe...expansion-of-nuclear-work-11579797991?mod=mhp

Europe to Avoid Triggering Sanctions if Iran Limits Expansion of Nuclear Work
Iran has taken no fresh steps to escalate nuclear work in weeks, European diplomats say

BRUSSELS—European powers won’t move to reimpose international sanctions on Iran and kill the 2015 nuclear deal as long as Tehran restrains expansion of its nuclear work, diplomats said, potentially increasing tensions with the Trump administration.
France, Britain and Germany last week triggered a dispute-settlement mechanism in the 2015 deal that could lead the European Union and the United Nations to reimpose sanctions on Iran within 60 days. The 2015 deal, which sought to constrain Iran’s nuclear capabilities, had suspended such sanctions.
European leaders have officially called for Iran to reverse violations of the nuclear deal that it has made in recent months. But European diplomats don’t expect Iran to reverse course and privately say they are prepared to tolerate those steps and keep discussions going with Iran for the foreseeable future. They are preparing to extend discussions well beyond the 60-day period.
European officials say they hope to slow Iran’s progress toward amassing enough nuclear fuel for one weapon, which could buy time to start direct talks between the U.S. and Iran. Some of them see a new opportunity for direct talks after U.S.-Iranian tensions nearly spilled into open conflict this month. In early January, President Trump ordered the killing of a top Iranian general, prompting Iran to fire missiles at Iraqi bases housing U.S. troops.
Europe is trying to salvage the nuclear deal despite pressure from Mr. Trump, who urged the Europeans, Russia and China to ”break away from the remnants of the [accord]” in the aftermath of the attacks. The U.S. exited the Iran deal in May 2018, arguing it gave Tehran an eventual pathway to a nuclear weapon. It wants Europe to join its maximum-pressure economic campaign to force Tehran to negotiate a new agreement with Washington.
Iran says its nuclear program is purely for civilian purposes.
Despite the leeway offered by the Europeans, the current situation poses a dilemma for Tehran. Rapidly escalating its nuclear program would be one way Tehran could press Washington to ease its sanctions campaign, whereas a commitment to move more carefully might reduce Iran’s leverage.
Last week, the Europeans said their triggering of the dispute mechanism was intended to save the deal by pressing Iran to reverse steps it had taken to breach it. The Europeans said they hoped not to reimpose sanctions and signaled patience about triggering the next step in the process: sending the issue to the U.N. Security Council, which could reimpose sanctions.
The European action came after Tehran said this month it would no longer be bound by any restraints in the accord on its production or stockpiling of enriched uranium, which can fuel a nuclear weapon.
Iran has gradually expanded its violations of the deal since last summer, in response to U.S. sanctions. It significantly exceeded a limit on its permissible stockpile of enriched uranium. It is conducting banned nuclear research work and producing enriched uranium at an underground facility, Fordow, where enrichment activities were forbidden under the deal.
European diplomats privately acknowledge that Iran almost certainly won’t reverse all its steps, as the EU has demanded, though they say they hope Tehran may reverse one or two of them, such as exceeding a limit on its stockpile of heavy water. The diplomats say their real aim is to persuade Iran not to take major new nuclear steps they haven’t yet taken and to remain many months away from the so-called breakout point, when Iran amasses enough nuclear fuel for an atomic bomb. The 2015 deal was designed to ensure Iran was at least 12 months away from that breakout point.
Under the accord, senior officials are supposed to have 15 days for discussions to resolve a dispute before deciding whether to kick it up to foreign ministers, though that period can be extended. European diplomats say a meeting of officials—as opposed to ministers—from Europe, Iran, Russia and China is likely in mid-to-late February, weeks beyond the 15-day mark.
Differences remain among European officials on what a restrained approach from Iran would be. Some believe a modest continued expansion in Iran’s still very small rate of production of enriched uranium is acceptable, even if Tehran reinstalls some additional centrifuges for enriching uranium, as threatened. Tehran has roughly quadrupled the amount of enriched uranium it produces monthly since July, experts say, from a very low base.
Others say European tolerance is more limited and detail certain Iranian moves that could trigger a more forceful reaction. One would be a major expansion of enriched uranium at Fordow. Another would be a serious escalation in Tehran’s research work or reducing the access of international inspectors.
Iran reacted angrily when Germany, France and the U.K. triggered the dispute mechanism. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif lambasted the Europeans for breaking their promises to help safeguard Iran’s economy from the impact of renewed U.S. sanctions and bowing “to U.S. diktat.”
European officials say they are hopeful that Iran could pursue a restrained approach. They say Iran has taken no steps in recent weeks to accelerate its nuclear work.
Robert Einhorn, a former senior State Department official who was involved in Iran negotiations during the Obama administration, said Tehran clearly valued the international support it has received for abiding by the accord for over a year after the Trump administration withdrew.
“But Iran’s leaders must recognize that this could change—and that they, rather than the Americans, could be isolated internationally—if aggressive efforts to build up nuclear capacity reignited international alarm about the prospect of an Iranian nuclear bomb,” he wrote in a paper last week for the Brookings Institution.

 

[yavar]

Iran Parliament motion to Quitting Nuclear Non-Proliferation nuclear Treaty (NPT) submitted https://www.presstv.com/Detail/2020/01/28/617305/Parliament-NPT-motion-Mahmoud-Sadeqi-JCPOA

 

[mohsen]

Iran's brand new Airbus 331 can't fly to Europe cause they have refused to update it's navigation software.

ممنوعیت پرواز ایرباس برجامی به اروپا - مشرق نیوز

US and EU are the same sh!t with different colors!

 

[yavar]

U.S. Foreign secretary Mike Pompeo: to extend U.N. Arms Embargo UNSCR 2231, Will Not Let Iran Buy Arms if U.N. Embargo Ends Hundreds of lawmakers urge Pompeo to take 'increased diplomatic action' to renew Iran arms embargo
https://thehill.com/policy/defense/...-to-take-increased-diplomatic-action-to-renew

WASHINGTON — The United States will not allow Iran to purchase conventional arms after a U.N. prohibition on this expires in October, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...rms-when-un-embargo-ends-pompeo-idUSKBN22B29T

 

[Philosopher]

I don't think there is a question they will try to reinstate the sanctions. But I think the Europeans, Chinese and Russians fully understand that would mean the end of the JCPOA. It really depends on how it plays out in the UNSC. From now till then what Iran can do is prepare the ground for a rapid development of its nuclear program and make sure the opposing side are fully aware of it. They will be forced to choose between Iran being able to sell and buy arms, or constraining its nuclear program. As I have said in this section before, Iranian nuclear program was growing at a calculated rate. Despite some of valid concerned I've seen with regards to what Iran had lost, I am not concerned because I think even without the deal, the program would not have been where people think it would be. Having said that, I think if this deal falls apart, Iran will be more aggressive with its nuclear program that it ever was before.

 

[Rukarl]

I don't think there is a question they will try to reinstate the sanctions. But I think the Europeans, Chinese and Russians fully understand that would mean the end of the JCPOA. It really depends on how it plays out in the UNSC. From now till then what Iran can do is prepare the ground for a rapid development of its nuclear program and make sure the opposing side are fully aware of it. They will be forced to choose between Iran being able to sell and buy arms, or constraining its nuclear program. As I have said in this section before, Iranian nuclear program was growing at a calculated rate. Despite some of valid concerned I've seen with regards to what Iran had lost, I am not concerned because I think even without the deal, the program would not have been where people think it would be. Having said that, I think if this deal falls apart, Iran will be more aggressive with its nuclear program that it ever was before.

Depends also on the administration. Someone like Rouhani is not going to sit down with Khamenei and convince him to agressively expand the nuclear program. In other words, it also depends on who is going to become the next president. Someone like Ahmadinejad would be much better cordinated with the leader and move more coordinated and determined.

 

[Philosopher]

Depends also on the administration. Someone like Rouhani is not going to sit down with Khamenei and convince him to agressively expand the nuclear program. In other words, it also depends on who is going to become the next president. Someone like Ahmadinejad would be much better cordinated with the leader and move more coordinated and determined.

What makes you think Rouhani will have a choice? The reputation of him and his administration is at the nadir when it comes to this issue. If this issue further escalates, this will be terrible for them and arguably for the so called reformists as a whole. Good luck to Rouhani or anyone trying to justify another set of negotiation if this all falls apart completely. The only way I can see the JCPOA saved is if this embargo is lifted and if Biden win the election. Too many ifs there for my liking.

 

[QWECXZ]

What makes you think Rouhani will have a choice? The reputation of him and his administration is at the nadir when it comes to this issue. If this issue further escalates, this will be terrible for them and arguably for the so called reformists as a whole. Good luck to Rouhani or anyone trying to justify another set of negotiation if this all falls apart completely. The only way I can see the JCPOA saved is if this embargo is lifted and if Biden win the election. Too many ifs there for my liking.

Don't think that Biden will be any different from Trump. Trump is an honest man, exposing his ideas and his intentions in a foolish way. The Democrats are also committed to the security of Israel, which means that any deal with them will have the same fate. As a matter of fact, the Obama administration violated the deal just like the Trump administration. We got lucky that Trump pulled out of it.

 

[yavar]

ایران ریس جمهور حسن روحانی: هشدار به کشورهای هسمو با آمریکا در تمدید تحریم‌های تسلیحاتی ٬ ایران به هیچ عنوان تخطی از قطعنامه ۲۲۳۱ شورای امنیت سازمان ملل را نخواهد پذیرفت و حق مسلم ایران است وبه بند چهار نامه که به سه کشور اروپایی ارسال شده بود اشاره کرد وحانی در هیئت دولت:تمدید تحریم تسلیحاتی ایران، عواقب خطرناکی دارد رئیس‌جمهور گفت: بنابراین آنچه امروز آمریکایی‌ها در مورد تحریم تسلیحاتی بحث می‌کنند باید بدانند جزء لاینفک برجام است و اگر تحریم تسلیحاتی روزی بخواهد برگردد پاسخ ما همانی است که در پاراگراف آخر نامه به سران ۱+۴ نوشتم.
https://ana.ir/fa/news/14/487968/تمدید-تحریم-تسلیحاتی-ایران-عواقب-خطرناکی-دارد-مردم-در-صورت-تمایل-به‌راحتی-می‌توانند-سهام-عدالت-را-بفروشند

Iran President Hassan Rouhani: Warning US, some other countries must know that Iran won’t ever accept violation of Resolution 2231 arms embargo/ My response to arms embargo in any way will be the same as I have stipulated in last paragraph of my response to leaders of the 5 countries, In a letter to the heads of the P4+1 and the five countries, I emphasised in the final paragraph that if you do this, we will do that, and they know what serious consequences would befall them if such a mistake was made.
http://www.president.ir/en/115157

 

[Rukarl]

What makes you think Rouhani will have a choice? The reputation of him and his administration is at the nadir when it comes to this issue. If this issue further escalates, this will be terrible for them and arguably for the so called reformists as a whole. Good luck to Rouhani or anyone trying to justify another set of negotiation if this all falls apart completely. The only way I can see the JCPOA saved is if this embargo is lifted and if Biden win the election. Too many ifs there for my liking.

Like it or not the Rohani government has alot of supporters inside Iran, especially among those pro US crowds. As long someone like Rouhani is in the office those crowds and their ideas will be fed and kept alive and will in general tie the hands of the supreme leader and the estabilishment from advancing the nuclear program.

Khamenei is a leader that frequently asks his advisors to visit people and measure their opinion and he considers the opposing party worthy of having discussions. If someone like Ahmadinejad is going to take office this will greatly influence the mind of the supreme leader that the nation is with him and united (e.g. the 80's wartime situation with Iraq).

In other words : Reformists try to appease the west and Khamenei reluctantly agrees with them everytime.

In my opinion, Khamenei is extremely experienced and he alone can pull it off and place Iran in a very good position. I just hope he chooses this path before he goes. I just can't imagine the chaotic post-Khamenei mess that is going to occur.

 

[yavar]

for historical context
here is video of Rouhani letter to EU3
Jan 24, 2020

Iran President Rouhani in letter to Europeans (The U.K., France and Germany, EU3) to quit Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) if referred to the UN Security Council
https://tn.ai/2187043