Kastor
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Hi Raptor, I must admit your posts and analysis are some of the few that carry weight with me, I can easily tell you have a political or diplomatic background, now mind you I'm a self confessed amateur, but with a good knowledge of history under my belt. I just have a good sense of guessing an outcome or an endgame to an issue. With that said, you asked if I have a plan, well, here is my plan...if I was in the presidential circle of Iran, I would draw up a list of scenarios where I could give the absolute minimum to Trump to make him look good while I get what I need in order to put our economic house back together. Why? well, first off, because there is a good chance Trump will win re-election....this is may prove to be a dangerous scenario for us. The Democratic candidates look weaker and weaker with every debate....I highly doubt the current list of possible candidates will be able to snatch the presidency away from Trump.
With that in mind, I would retool my strategy, because we cannot live with another 4 yrs of sanctions on us. So we have to start thinking of an end game....we need to remove these sanctions once and for all to unleash the economic monster Iran can become. When you look at the chess pieces you can see that the only way forward id to do a horse trade. We have to start making some overtures to Trump, I did not say anything about giving any more concessions....just talk, we can lessen the chances of a kinetic action by his necon hawks by just talking.
Trump does not care about the nuke deal or Iran, or Israel or S.A. He only cares about looking strong or good. If you can understand this character flaw you can exploit him. Now, I meant to give you my plan, my plan would start by first having low level talks. If we can give Trump a new deal that looks a lot like the old deal with a new name....he would be happy. So they also want us to curtail missile program and stop the proxy funding, we all know we cannot do that, because they have armed our adversaries to the teeth so we would counter by saying we're only here to discuss the nuke issue first. USA wants assurances that we won't make a bomb....let's give them that, it was already in the JCPOA, Page 2 anyway! Next, we will need to have the sanctions removed via a treaty approved by congress. If they can't pass it in the senate, then we only implement parts of the deal not the whole thing, so enrichments, centrifuges, amount of heavy water, yellow cake etc...etc would all have their reciprocal actions. To me the endgame is clear as daylight....get the sanctions removed. How? by calling them out in world press and tv, by saying ok, so you have said several times that you only care about us not having a bomb, well we are here to negotiate that.
PS: USA broke its word, and the president's son in law is basically a Mossad agent in the middle of all the sensitive foreign policy issues of the USA....We have to live with this reality, we also have respect how much power the USA has with other countries. This is a chess game, there is no fairness about it, the strong can beat down the weak, 40 yrs of economic growth has been deferred (mostly) because of bad and empty policy. Look at how fast UAE corrected course after the Drone shot down and the quagmire in Yemen. They came to Tehran, hat in hand.....even though they basically worked harder than SA to make USA attack us for the past 3 years. But we also screwed up, we did not ratchet down the bullsh*t after JCPOA, we did not talk or reach out further, we didn't curtail the anti american activities. we did not stop the Death to America chants....etc. etc.. So diplomatically the hardliner short circuited the JCPOA's chances of success to begin with. At the end of all of this, we will realize that we need to have a uncomfortable peace with the USA, it's the only way.....This will not happen as long as we have an old man, with no worldly knowledge directing or dictating our foreign policy.
PPS: one last thing, you asked how can we trust the USA? We cannot, I know it, you know it, neither the UK or France for that matter, they will stick together 10 times over before sticking with us, that is the reality that we have made for ourselves in the past 40 yrs. No one to blame except ourselves. We don't have any real allies....we did this. So again, you implement any new deal in stages. We do our part, they do theirs..so on and so on.
Sorry for this last jab, but if we had done our homework the first time around we should have known that JCPOA was an agreement that was not ratified by the Senate and that any party can unilaterally pull out. Second, how did they underestimate the Israeli lobby in the USA's government?? They control almost all of it. They control the press, the TV, Hollywood...and wall street where all the donations come from...etc. The negotiators should have planned for their actions ahead of time....but as usual, our foreign policy group sat around and tweeted, I said this before they are waging a PR war on us.....this PR campaign is more important than the actual war. Yet our diplomatic corps can hardly speak English....why do you think Zarif is so effective in the press here? Israel hawks hate him...because he knows how to speak.
With that in mind, I would retool my strategy, because we cannot live with another 4 yrs of sanctions on us. So we have to start thinking of an end game....we need to remove these sanctions once and for all to unleash the economic monster Iran can become. When you look at the chess pieces you can see that the only way forward id to do a horse trade. We have to start making some overtures to Trump, I did not say anything about giving any more concessions....just talk, we can lessen the chances of a kinetic action by his necon hawks by just talking.
Trump does not care about the nuke deal or Iran, or Israel or S.A. He only cares about looking strong or good. If you can understand this character flaw you can exploit him. Now, I meant to give you my plan, my plan would start by first having low level talks. If we can give Trump a new deal that looks a lot like the old deal with a new name....he would be happy. So they also want us to curtail missile program and stop the proxy funding, we all know we cannot do that, because they have armed our adversaries to the teeth so we would counter by saying we're only here to discuss the nuke issue first. USA wants assurances that we won't make a bomb....let's give them that, it was already in the JCPOA, Page 2 anyway! Next, we will need to have the sanctions removed via a treaty approved by congress. If they can't pass it in the senate, then we only implement parts of the deal not the whole thing, so enrichments, centrifuges, amount of heavy water, yellow cake etc...etc would all have their reciprocal actions. To me the endgame is clear as daylight....get the sanctions removed. How? by calling them out in world press and tv, by saying ok, so you have said several times that you only care about us not having a bomb, well we are here to negotiate that.
PS: USA broke its word, and the president's son in law is basically a Mossad agent in the middle of all the sensitive foreign policy issues of the USA....We have to live with this reality, we also have respect how much power the USA has with other countries. This is a chess game, there is no fairness about it, the strong can beat down the weak, 40 yrs of economic growth has been deferred (mostly) because of bad and empty policy. Look at how fast UAE corrected course after the Drone shot down and the quagmire in Yemen. They came to Tehran, hat in hand.....even though they basically worked harder than SA to make USA attack us for the past 3 years. But we also screwed up, we did not ratchet down the bullsh*t after JCPOA, we did not talk or reach out further, we didn't curtail the anti american activities. we did not stop the Death to America chants....etc. etc.. So diplomatically the hardliner short circuited the JCPOA's chances of success to begin with. At the end of all of this, we will realize that we need to have a uncomfortable peace with the USA, it's the only way.....This will not happen as long as we have an old man, with no worldly knowledge directing or dictating our foreign policy.
PPS: one last thing, you asked how can we trust the USA? We cannot, I know it, you know it, neither the UK or France for that matter, they will stick together 10 times over before sticking with us, that is the reality that we have made for ourselves in the past 40 yrs. No one to blame except ourselves. We don't have any real allies....we did this. So again, you implement any new deal in stages. We do our part, they do theirs..so on and so on.
Sorry for this last jab, but if we had done our homework the first time around we should have known that JCPOA was an agreement that was not ratified by the Senate and that any party can unilaterally pull out. Second, how did they underestimate the Israeli lobby in the USA's government?? They control almost all of it. They control the press, the TV, Hollywood...and wall street where all the donations come from...etc. The negotiators should have planned for their actions ahead of time....but as usual, our foreign policy group sat around and tweeted, I said this before they are waging a PR war on us.....this PR campaign is more important than the actual war. Yet our diplomatic corps can hardly speak English....why do you think Zarif is so effective in the press here? Israel hawks hate him...because he knows how to speak.
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