The end of the deal, hopes, delusions and treasons

[Sineva]

He said it's not a precondition but we will discuss it when US is back in the deal .

It's part of his interview with Fareed zakaria on CNN. apparently western media didn't like the second part of the answer!

Ahh....Now why-oh-why am I NOT surprised to hear that...

 

[aryobarzan]

I think JCPOA is now dead after Biden declaration yesterday.

SL was waiting for that ...what is the content of SL message to Putin.


My guess:..Iran will pull out of NPT ...what do you think!

 

[Shawnee]

I think JCPOA is now dead after Biden declaration yesterday.

SL was waiting for that ...what is the content of SL message to Putin.


My guess:..Iran will pull out of NPT ...what do you think!

We don’t know but that maybe part of a long letter to Putin that invites Russia to collaborate in specific things if it wants to avoid that situation.

 

[Sineva]

I think JCPOA is now dead after Biden declaration yesterday.

SL was waiting for that ...what is the content of SL message to Putin.


My guess:..Iran will pull out of NPT ...what do you think!

I think you`re right.
At this point I think that the deal,barring some miracle,is effectively dead as there is simply not enough time left to the biden regime to do what is necessary to save it,indeed I think that even if the biden regime had devoted the vast bulk of its efforts from the moment it achieved power to doing only this,its likely that there still wouldnt have been enough time for any results to show before the next iranian election,and frankly I do not think that rouhanis successor regime will be a reformist one,nor do I see it having any real interest in spending political capital on a deal that it has no political stake in.

 

[Philosopher]

Like I had said, it's all smoke and mirrors.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1358872410372644869

 

[Shawnee]

I think JCPOA is now dead after Biden declaration yesterday.

SL was waiting for that ...what is the content of SL message to Putin.


My guess:..Iran will pull out of NPT ...what do you think!

More on Qalibaf letter content:

Farsnews | قالیباف: پایبندی به برجامی که ایران تنها بازنده آن باشد قابل تداوم نیست

رئیس مجلس با بیان اینکه سوال ما این است که آیا فقط بناست دیگران از برجام نفع ببرند و ایران تنها بازنده آن باشد، گفت: من به صراحت اعلام می کنم که ایران حاضر به پای بندی به چنین توافقی نخواهد بود. ما تا امروز این راه را آمده ایم اما این مسیر دیگر قابل تداوم نیست.

www.farsnews.ir

چرا روسها نامه رو با بی میلی تحویل گرفتند
چرا عباسی دوانی هم به مسکو رفت
چرا نامه باید با تشکیلات داده میشد
حرفهای قالیباف
حرفهای وزیر اطلاعات​

 

[Shawnee]

Schrödinger's Nuke: How Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program Exists – and Doesn't Exist – at the Same Time - Foreign Policy Research Institute

"If we master nuclear technology, we will be transformed into a regional superpower and will dominate 17 Muslim countries in this neighborhood...We have

www.fpri.org

Nice article of a few years back.
Iran’s nuke program was “Schrödinger’s cat”. It existed and it did not exist.
It was Heisenberg uncertainty principle.

Now what happens if you corner the “Schrödinger’s cat”. Then it exists!!

———-
Schrödinger’s cat” is a classic thought-experiment in which a cat concealed in a box is said to be simultaneously alive and dead though obviously it is one or the other. The paradox’s basis is that each outcome is equally uncertain, and it is unknown which outcome is false. Thus, in the absence of actually knowingwhich outcome is false, the two mutually exclusive outcomes are said to be equally “true.”


And so it is with Iran’s nuclear weapon program. The Islamic Republic of Iran has a nuclear weapon program—indeed, it has had one for decades[1]—and, at the same time, it does not. This article probes the roots of that paradox. It begins by parsing the meaning of the “nuclear weapons program” triad, viz., uranium enrichment and plutonium reprocessing; explosive nuclear device fabrication; and weapon delivery systems.

In the early 1980s the leaders of the Islamic Republic quickly revived Iran’s Pahlavi-era nuclear program amidst a bitter struggle with neighboring Iraq.

“The Government of Iran’s 1982 decision to reinstitute the Pahlavi regime’s nuclear program […] ironically […] continued what many scholars see as the Pahlavi regime’s strategy of running a parallel weapons program, using Iran’s openly declared civil nuclear power program as a springboard for developing weapon grade fuel, and as cover to mask its development of the technical know-how for weapons design and manufacturing.[2]

The rest in the attached article.

Nice analogy.
We are back to the cat example.

 

[Draco.IMF]

Iran Produced Uranium Metal In "Reversible Nuclear Deal Breach": IAEA

On February 10th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had taken major steps toward the construction of...

southfront.org

IRAN PRODUCED URANIUM METAL IN “REVERSIBLE NUCLEAR DEAL BREACH”: IAEA

 

[OldTwilight]

More on Qalibaf letter content:

Farsnews | قالیباف: پایبندی به برجامی که ایران تنها بازنده آن باشد قابل تداوم نیست

رئیس مجلس با بیان اینکه سوال ما این است که آیا فقط بناست دیگران از برجام نفع ببرند و ایران تنها بازنده آن باشد، گفت: من به صراحت اعلام می کنم که ایران حاضر به پای بندی به چنین توافقی نخواهد بود. ما تا امروز این راه را آمده ایم اما این مسیر دیگر قابل تداوم نیست.

www.farsnews.ir

چرا روسها نامه رو با بی میلی تحویل گرفتند
چرا عباسی دوانی هم به مسکو رفت
چرا نامه باید با تشکیلات داده میشد
حرفهای قالیباف
حرفهای وزیر اطلاعات​

چون روس ها می خواهند از قدرت آمرکیا در شرق آسیا برای مهار چین استفاده کنند و اعراب و سرمایه گذاران یهودی سود بسیار بسیار بیشتری نسبت به ایران براشون دارند .

 

[RΛIDEN]

Iran Produced Uranium Metal In "Reversible Nuclear Deal Breach": IAEA

On February 10th, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that Iran had taken major steps toward the construction of...

southfront.org

IRAN PRODUCED URANIUM METAL IN “REVERSIBLE NUCLEAR DEAL BREACH”: IAEA

In one of the lines in the article, it says: "Uranium metal is typically produced from a low-enriched uranium isotope mixture that remains after enrichment. This material can be used both as fuel for atomic reactors producing energy and for nuclear weapons, in particular in the shell of a nuclear warhead. "

Few lines later, it says: "In addition, in January, Tehran announced its intention to conduct research related to the production of uranium metal, noting that it would be related to the development of an improved type of fuel for power plants. This vow has provided a result now."

And then comes this line saying: "In a joint statement last month, European foreign ministers warned there was no credible civilian use for the material."

IAEA reaction:

My reaction to logic:

 

[Hack-Hook]

In one of the lines in the article, it says: "Uranium metal is typically produced from a low-enriched uranium isotope mixture that remains after enrichment. This material can be used both as fuel for atomic reactors producing energy and for nuclear weapons, in particular in the shell of a nuclear warhead. "

Few lines later, it says: "In addition, in January, Tehran announced its intention to conduct research related to the production of uranium metal, noting that it would be related to the development of an improved type of fuel for power plants. This vow has provided a result now."

And then comes this line saying: "In a joint statement last month, European foreign ministers warned there was no credible civilian use for the material."

IAEA reaction:

My reaction to logic:

there is no civilian use for uranium metal if you do it with 90+% uranium . if like Iran you do it woth 20% uranium there are tons of legitimate civilian use .
in fact it made it a lot harder to divert your uranium toward making nukes.

 

[Philosopher]

The time is running out for the Americans, these "no you first" conditions are in vain. Later on this month a good portion of the IAEA inspections will be cut. In my opinion once that is done Iran must go all out and give the Americans 2-4 weeks to completely remove all the sanctions or the following will happen:

1) Iran will completely leave the JCPOA and kick out all inspectors (i.e spies)
2) Declare it has left the NPT - leaving the NPT does not happen straight away, you need to give them few months notice.
3) It should also make it clear that its nuclear program will change in its posture i.e increase enrichment to beyond 20% and start working on developing new enrichment facilities deep underground with the aim of reaching the 1000,000 SWU target.
4) Start making more hints of Iran potentially going nuclear, like we recently saw from the the intelligence minister.

If these threats are made, then you will see how quickly these Americans will run back to the deal. The more these Americans drag their feet, the less appetite Iran will have for the JCPOA because as time goes by, Iran is adapting more and more to these sanctions. The Americans do not seem to realise they are the ones that is running out of time here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359919480319729673

 

[Shawnee]

Team Trump has adopted a new position under Biden administration based on three terms:

1. Mullah are desperate to have SOME sanction relief. They will come to the table.
2. They need two years to make one bomb, IF they decide to. We have time. No rush.
3. You need enough of major sanctions left for more bargain on other important stuff.
——————-
What they have no plan for:
- What to do when enrichment level increases.
- What to do when inspections are limited.
- How much time is a reasonable time to wait.
- What if a surprise nuke test happens. Who guarantees two years of time.

 

[Juggernaut_Flat_Plane_V8]

Iran is a great enduring civilization..US is the latest representative of Western civilization...I hope both of these civilizations can work together so that humanity can jointly tackle the global challenges coming ahead

 

[Arian]

The time is running out for the Americans, these "no you first" conditions are in vain. Later on this month a good portion of the IAEA inspections will be cut. In my opinion once that is done Iran must go all out and give the Americans 2-4 weeks to completely remove all the sanctions or the following will happen:

1) Iran will completely leave the JCPOA and kick out all inspectors (i.e spies)
2) Declare it has left the NPT - leaving the NPT does not happen straight away, you need to give them few months notice.
3) It should also make it clear that its nuclear program will change in its posture i.e increase enrichment to beyond 20% and start working on developing new enrichment facilities deep underground with the aim of reaching the 1000,000 SWU target.
4) Start making more hints of Iran potentially going nuclear, like we recently saw from the the intelligence minister.

If these threats are made, then you will see how quickly these Americans will run back to the deal. The more these Americans drag their feet, the less appetite Iran will have for the JCPOA because as time goes by, Iran is adapting more and more to these sanctions. The Americans do not seem to realise they are the ones that is running out of time here.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1359919480319729673

In my opinion, Iran achieves nothing by leaving the NPT if it doesn't intend to have a military nuclear program. Kicking the IAEA inspectors out completely is not really a rational step before we have made our decision to move towards nuclear bombs. We need to halt our adherence to the Additional Protocol, which can be justified as we were voluntarily executing it, but we should remain a member of the NPT unless we have reached a point where we can leave it and build nukes in a short matter of time (preferably in 3 months after notifying the agency of our decision to leave the NPT)

My only concern at this point is the damage done to the ICAC a few months ago. That can have an impact on our assembly of new advanced centrifuges. We cannot reach our target of 190,000 SWU without a fully operational assembly center like the ICAC.