BRUSSELS/GENEVA – Three million migrants are expected to arrive in Europe by 2017 as they flee war and poverty in Syria and other conflict zones, with a small positive impact on the EU economy likely, the EU’s executive arm said on Thursday.
“Overall, an additional 3 million persons is assumed to arrive in the EU over the forecast period,” the European Commission’s economic forecast for 2015-2017 said.
It predicted that there would be 1 million arrivals in total during 2015, 1.5 million in 2016 and half a million in 2017, adding that it would represent an increase in the EU’s population of around 0.4 percent once unsuccessful asylum applications were taken into account.
European Union Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said that the migrants could help boost the EU economy, helping the moderate recovery predicted in the eurozone during that period.
“There will be an impact on growth that is weak but positive for the EU as a whole, and that will increase GDP (gross domestic product) by 0.2 to 0.3 percent by 2017,” Moscovici said.
“That will combat a certain number of received ideas and backs the politics of President (Jean-Claude Juncker),” who has pushed for the EU to do more to help migrants, Moscovici added.
Meanwhile, the U.N. said refugees and migrants are likely to continue to arrive in Europe at a rate of up to 5,000 per day via Turkey this winter, and appealed for more funds to avert tragedy in Greece and the Balkans in coming months.
More than 760,000 people have already crossed the Mediterranean so far this year, mainly to Greece and Italy, after fleeing wars in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq, as well as conflicts in Eritrea and other parts of Africa.
“Harsh weather conditions in the region are likely to exacerbate the suffering of the thousands of refugees and migrants landing in Greece and traveling through the Balkans, and may result in further loss of life if adequate measures are not taken urgently,” the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) said.
“UNHCR’s new winter plan anticipates that there could be up to 5,000 arrivals per day from Turkey between November 2015 and February 2016,” it said.
The agency is seeking an additional $96.15 million to support Croatia, Greece, Serbia, Slovenia and the former Republic of Macedonia, bringing the total amount that it is trying to raise for Europe’s refugee crisis to $172.7 million.
The fresh funds will be used to upgrade shelter and reception facilities for winter conditions, and to supply family tents and housing units equipped with heating, the statement said. Sanitation and water supply systems will also be improved.
“Winter clothing and blankets, as well as other essential items for protecting people from the elements, will be included in the aid packages to be distributed to individuals with specific needs,” it said.
More children are joining the ranks of refugees streaming into Europe, with some families taking a new route from Turkey to Bulgaria to avoid crossing rough seas to Greece as winter sets in, the U.N. Children’s Fund (UNICEF) said on Wednesday.
3 million migrant arrivals expected in Europe by 2017: EU | The Japan Times
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