The Collapse of China Collapse Theory

[Beidou2020]

While it is true that adjustments are being made, the coming dip in the workers to retiree ration in the next few decades will cause great stresses that will need to be handled very carefully. Those efforts may or may not be successful

That's because the Chinese retirement age is only 55. This is because the Chinese life expectancy was much lower many decades ago so the retirement age is set according to the life expectancy back then.

Now Chinese live longer and the retirement age will be raised much higher.

That and the relaxation of the one child policy will help.

As technology improves and automation takes up a bigger share of jobs, less and less humans will be needed to get work done.

 

[BigDaddyWatch]

The real danger to China's ascendancy comes from its coming demographic changes, coupled with the lack of the required flexibility in its social and political systems to adapt as rapidly as will be needed.

If you are referring to the one child policy its a situation of choosing between two evils. A uncontrolled population growth will in my opinion do more harm to China than the current one child policy. The one child policy has its problems but its in my view the lesser of the two evils.

As for your claim of a political and social system unable to adapt rapidly to change. That claim simply flies in the face of reality since China's political and social structure has changed more than any other country in recent history. And both have adapted very well to it.

 

[Pakistani shaheens]

No one want China collapse, but in fact, we realized the go down of Chinese economy since last year.

Chinese GDP growth rate is about 8%, that is twice of USA which is 4%. And it's also evident that China is growing economy and will become next super power and will surpass usa very soon.

 

[EastSea]

It is depend on Chinese.

 

[sweetgrape]

No one want China collapse, but in fact, we realized the go down of Chinese economy since last year.

No one want? and because China growth rate down, so you get Chinese economy go down? your comments still be that naive and ridiculous, hehe!

 

[tranquilium]

The real danger to China's ascendancy comes from its coming demographic changes, coupled with the lack of the required flexibility in its social and political systems to adapt as rapidly as will be needed.

Erm, what are you talking about? Chinese system is one of the most responsive one on the planet. In the past three decades alone China has experienced just about more social and political change than any stable nation on the planet. Chinese government has also constantly acknowledge the need to reform and many times at core and fundamental aspects of the nation. In comparison, nations like US or India is pretty much stuck at small reforms and no one would touch fundamentals with a ten feet pole. Heck, there are plenty of people in these nations that believe their country's fundamentals is perfect and has no need to change. In comparison, Chinese openly acknowledge that constant change and improvement is the key to victory.

Take population for example, Chinese government is the only one on the planet that when encountered with out of control grow, manage to implement a policy that is hugely unpopular, but extremely effective and when encountered with aging population, the same government also quickly responded the issue and adjusted policies accordingly.

Exactly, just as everyone was crying about China facing a looming demographic problem by 2030 or 2050... the Chinese government ended the one-child policy, several decades before any of those predictions had a chance to come true.

Zhongnanhai is a lot smarter than most foreigners think. They were working on future reforms many years before the global media even started to complain about them.

The Xi-Li Administration has some serious reform momentum going on right now. Expect many of our largest economic reforms to be carried out over the next few years.

The one-child policy's part on only-childs are allowed to have more kids are there in the 70s. It is almost a century before the predicted "crisis" and three decades before the first media concern on aging population even surfaced. It is just that most one-childs are only recently old enough to take advantage of that.

 

[VCheng]

Erm, what are you talking about?

Please learn some more on China's population pyramid and its coming changes so that you can understand what we are talking about.

 

[TheTruth]

The population pyramid isn't going to matter since labor-saving technology is ascending now

 

[BoQ77]

No one want? and because China growth rate down, so you get Chinese economy go down? your comments still be that naive and ridiculous, hehe!

Are you so naive not to realize that China economy go down in real?
No one want China economy collapse because the economies are interactive, similar to banking system.

I myself don't want China is bankrupted.
During 2008-2009 we saw how US economy is, it affect a lot to all remain, incl. China.

It's so simple that we based on just GDP rate, China is not so transparent in economic figures but it's clear that bubbles of real estates, bad debts of banks, reduction in domestic demand, jobs lost, ...tell much.

This is the common issue not only China must face.

 

[tranquilium]

Please learn some more on China's population pyramid and its coming changes so that you can understand what we are talking about.

I am well aware of the current population issues AND Chinese government's active response to it. My comment is directed at the supposed "lack of the required flexibility in its social and political systems to adapt as rapidly as will be needed". Just opposite to the statement, Chinese government has one of the fastest response speed to changing environment on the planet.

 

[cnleio]

It's so simple that we based on just GDP rate, China is not so transparent in economic figures but it's clear that bubbles of real estates, bad debts of banks, reduction in domestic demand, jobs lost, ...tell much.

This is the common issue not only China must face.

Where u get this data ? Do u live in China ? It looks u r so confident. China GDP growth drop down, her economy still develop well and GDP increase.

Here no jobs lost, Chinese domestic demand still strong, middle-class family numbers increase, debts of banks better than West bank system ... just tell u a truth.

What about ur Vietnam GDP growth rate from 10% => 8% => 5.6% vs China GDP growth rate 10% => 7%, u think which is bettter ?

 

[BoQ77]

cnleio : I just stated we saw China economy slowdown. And we don't want to see any collapse.

others are Chinese own issues.

just curiously, how you can assure

Here no jobs lost, Chinese domestic demand still strong, debts of banks better than West band system ... just tell u a truth.

 

[cnleio]

cnleio : I just stated we saw China economy slowdown. And we don't want to see any collapse.

others are Chinese own issues.

just curiously, how you can assure

My family & friends living in China, our relatives & mates still purchase lots of goods here, our wallets still full, our business still making money in China market ...

When China economy really going down or we can't make money in China, i will tell u.

 

[Norwegian]

China is the most populous nation on the planet and Han Chinese is the most populous ethnic group of all humanity. Surely they cannot collapse like American multiculturalism and other fake theories.

 

[VCheng]

I am well aware of the current population issues AND Chinese government's active response to it. My comment is directed at the supposed "lack of the required flexibility in its social and political systems to adapt as rapidly as will be needed". Just opposite to the statement, Chinese government has one of the fastest response speed to changing environment on the planet.

Your claim may or may not be true. The results will tell the world whether it was or not.