LeveragedBuyout
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Wow I really do enjoy reading your posts bro
Wow I really do enjoy reading your comments bro. Your are one of the very few sane members here who makes constructive arguments/points. So far I have learned quite alot from your posts. I'm kind of surprised, but are you really American? Since I find it surprising as almost all Americans members I have seen on here are rather too biased towards china, Russia and other emerging countries and hardly make any credible/consructive arguments /points to back their claims. Keep up your good work. It's always a delight to read your posts.
Coming back to topic. I completely I agree with all your points. China's main advantage is it huge hard working population, landmass, resources and it's fairly competent leadership /political system. Additionally, it still has a relatively poor/low per capital income which gives it a huge/large room for growth.
I have absolutely no doubt that China will surpass the U. S economically in the coming decade. However, GDP per capital wise it will take a very long time for that to happen more than 70years I think (if it does at all. ).
China right now is simply too big to fail, moreover it hasn't yet even reached half of it true potential. So all talk of collapse I must confess is just wishful thinking by our media and other rival countries of Chna(which is understandable, once when you have a competitor you will always wish for him to stumble so you can keep/extend your lead or overtake them in case you are behind, so nothing surprising in that ).
As for the U. S it isn't in decline like some naysayers will want us to believe, the U. S is still the world's most advance /industrialised nation on earth, and is still the fastest growing developed major economy out there. Just like China, many people have been predicting a U. S collapse/decline invane. Lol. The U. S isn't in decline, it's just that China is rising so fast it seems the U. S is declining, but they are not. The U. S still adds more to it's GDP each year than any other nation on earth except China. So the U. S isn't in decline, and we should never underestimate U. S ability to innovate /reinvent itself like it has done several times before in the past. The U. S as a developed nation which has reached its peak, is really commendable for it to still be growing at its current rate giving its huge economy and developed market. China will have a tough time to match that when it's as developed as the U. S(even though I must confess, by then Chna will be at least 3 times bigger than the U S if that's to happen. )
So the coming decade will sure be interesting as this balance of power gradually shifts with all what this means in terms of Geo politics in Asia and the world.
As leveraged buyout said its easy to get rich, but it's harder to get poor once you are rich. So the west/U.S is going nowhere, we will still be wealthy despite our slowdown. China for now will find it easier to keep growing at least 6-7percent ffor the foreseeable future since its still relatively poor and has much room for growth. When you come from a low base down, the only direction is up. So forget about Chna collapse theory, it's pure propaganda. Yes Gordon Chang I'm looking at you.
Sorry for the off-topics post:
Thank you for your kind words. I am not an economist, but economics is peripherally related to my field, so I do enjoy studying it, as well as geopolitics. It's a bit trite, but I am guided by two principles when I post:
1). In my signature is a quote from Donald Rumsfeld, former Secretary of Defense. It's been the subject of much ridicule, but I think it encapsulates a profound truth: it's easy for us to discern those areas in which we don't have much knowledge (known unknowns), but it is much harder to distinguish between areas where we are justifiably confident in our knowledge (known knowns) and areas where we're are unjustifiably confident (unknown unknowns) because we have stopped asking questions, arrogantly assuming we know all that is necessary, when perhaps we are mistaken.
2) Be kind, for everyone you meet is fighting a hard battle. -Plato
There are a lot of trolls here, but not everyone is looking to start a fight. Some people are misinformed, but open-minded, and sometimes I am the one who is misinformed. Regardless, even if others spew nonsense in these threads, sometimes it's simply due to an inferior education, and being trapped in a culture that doesn't reward questioning. I try to be patient, although sometimes I fail. It's important to stay humble and not descend to racism or character assassination in these discussions, if one hopes to be constructive. Why are any of us here, if not to learn? I have better things to do with my time than engaging in constant one-upmanship, or trying to prove that I am smarter.
On a macro level, these principles mean that I do not dismiss or underestimate China, Russia, or any other country. They have their strengths and weaknesses, just like we have our strengths and weaknesses. We can't control what they do, but we can control what we do, and where accommodation is possible, why would we choose conflict? Conflict is bad for business, and tends to result in having no winners.
Yes, I am American. I believe that what makes America great is its open-mindedness, it's equanimity to all, its risk-taking culture, its openness to self-criticism, and its ability to adapt. Those who were once enemies are now our friends (the UK, Germany, Japan, increasingly Vietnam), and those who were once our friends are now... not so friendly (China, Iran).
Fortunately, America is not bound by history, but rather by an idea of itself, and its place in the world. That means we are always ready to extend the hand of friendship to those we face, but the only way to open ourselves to that possibility is by not demonizing our counterparts. That's why you will never see marches in the US calling for death to Iran, or riots in the US that burn down Chinese factories. While others flex their muscles and agitate for their place under the sun, we will patiently wait for the day that we can establish truly friendly relations. Until that day, we will maintain our vigilant watch.
Finally, I never talk about my personal life on PDF, but I will say that I have worked on three continents, and have immediate family members in Russia and China, so perhaps that gives me a more optimistic perspective towards these countries than is available to most Americans.
), same with riots in china against Japan when the japanese government nationalised the senkakus/diaoyus islands, or south Korean athletes protesting against Japan war crimes/yakushini visits during olympic games/world cup ceremonies?
