The Battle for Bajaur - PA seizes control

[Anwar2]

Dear All-Green: You have made a thought provoking reference to the Russian dimension. It is hard to garner any real evidence of Russian involvement at this point in time, however circumstantial evidence shows that there may be some truth to it.

Russian policy cannot be gauged by the political signals emanating out of Kremlin alone. Afghan situation is by far too complex:
1. Early 2001 when Bush – Putin were buddies: Russia wholeheartedly supported the USA in its initial mobilization in Oct 2001. In fact Russia worked with Uzbekistan and Kirghistan to get Manas, Karshi, Dushanbe and Termez Air bases organized in no time. Russian forces deployed in Tajikistan helped the Northern Alliance and US Special forces a great deal. USAF C-5, C-17 transited Russian air space; even US Navy fighters operated from Uzbekistan to hit Taleban positions in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kondoz. The reason was very simple: Russians despised and feared Taleban, and hated their support for the Chechen resistance.
2. Interestingly the first airplane to land in Kabul post Taleban was an Iranian AN-74!. Iranian Air Force in 2001 closely worked with the US Forces and Northern Alliance, because they too hated Taleban.
3. By late 2003 Russia discovered that their opposition to Invasion of Iraq did not amount to anything. They had become political lightweights. Condi, Donald Rumsfeld and Bush were pinching their toes. They got not even a token acknowledgement for their support to the USA, except a silly token membership of G-8, and be a member of “European community”. Russia was prompted to put pressure on Iran against its own best commercial interests.
4. From 2004 – 2006 several colored revolutions were orchestrated by USA in Ukraine, Kirghistan, Georgia; Russia found itself totally surrounded and choked.

The bottom fell out with the buildup of tensions between Georgia and Russia in April 2008. Russia had hit the rock bottom. The US prompted Georgian invasion in Sep 2008 woke the Russians from a deep slumber; they realized that they had been taken for a ride. Their main client state India was furiously gyrating its hips to the American Nuclear agreement; their Afghan Northern Alliance protégés were now committed American soldiers. Russians have now begun to realize that after all they are as much Central Asians as Europeans.

Now that NASHAY KA KHUMAR TOOT GAYA, Russia finds itself on one limb. They got serious troubles in Dagestan and Caucasia. The West is tightening the snooze of missile shield and NATO around them.

So, what is the most Logical course of action for Russia? Through investment of suitable high tech resources in friendlier factions amongst Taliban they hope to achieve the following:
1. Collapse NATO / US operations in Afghanistan
2. Develop positive vibes with their own Muslim population in Caucasian and Dagestani.
3. get rid of the NATO expansion menace and bring US / NATO to negotiating table. Get rid of Sakaasvilly like clowns.
4. Create security ties with Iran, and the emerging Iraq.
5. bring India back to the fold.

The biggest problem is to find the “friendlier” factions amongst the Taliban. Probably they may not have much difficulty after all those years.

Actually this could be a good opportunity for Pakistan too.

 

[Anwar2]

AgNoStIc MuSliM: Malik Naveed’s group (IDP NWFP) stumbled upon leads during the investigation of the recent balst at Imam bargah in Qissa Khwani Peshawar. But then the investigation was abruptly folded.
About 7-8 years ago when MMA was formed and the Sunni-Shia parties began coordinating and comparing notes on then frequent bomb blasts it came to light that the “extremists” from both sides had little or no relevance to the tragedies.
Unfortunately in Kurram the Political agent and Army authorities pumped Toris to raise Lashkars against the so-called Taliban. This move had little support amongst majority of Tori clans, but unfortunately everyone got dragged into it. The government stroke the flames of open war in Kurram for good 3 weeks without intervention, till the score on both sides had reached about 400.
Now things are calm because the people have realized that the Shia-Sunni fitna is government’s creation.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

AgNoStIc MuSliM: Malik Naveed’s group (IDP NWFP) stumbled upon leads during the investigation of the recent balst at Imam bargah in Qissa Khwani Peshawar. But then the investigation was abruptly folded.
About 7-8 years ago when MMA was formed and the Sunni-Shia parties began coordinating and comparing notes on then frequent bomb blasts it came to light that the “extremists” from both sides had little or no relevance to the tragedies.
Unfortunately in Kurram the Political agent and Army authorities pumped Toris to raise Lashkars against the so-called Taliban. This move had little support amongst majority of Tori clans, but unfortunately everyone got dragged into it. The government stroke the flames of open war in Kurram for good 3 weeks without intervention, till the score on both sides had reached about 400.
Now things are calm because the people have realized that the Shia-Sunni fitna is government’s creation.

What it sounds like is that the Government supported one set of tribes to rise up against the Taliban (who have been burning and beheading their way across the North West) in an attempt to find a local solution to the problem - similar to the attempts made in Bajaur and Swat by getting the Tribes to take action and responsibility in their territories.

I see nothing sinister in this except that the move backfired in terms of dragging in the Sunni Tribe in the area in favor of the Taliban, and gave the conflict a Shia-Sunni dimension.

The incident does suggest that using exclusively Shia troops in FATA, as some have argued, is not a good idea, since the Shia-Sunni tensions will become an overpowering dynamic that will complicate things even further.

There needs to be a little more than innuendo on 'comparing notes' to exonerate the sectarian extremists and terrorists, and even more to show the government to be deliberately complicit in these acts.

 

[All-Green]

dear Anwar2
thats a good summary of Russian position.
Regarding your comments w.r.t Pakistan i also have been thinking on these lines.
maybe there was more to the Russian decision to give go ahead for sale of Russian engines in JF-17 than meets the eye, i mean whereas certain people may see it as simply an insignificant business transaction i really think it was quite well though out by the Russian government.

I think now we should expect some subsequent strategy shift in Pakistan policy as well to align it more with Russian interests... well not from Zardari but at least in a few years we can hope something better to result from this Russian gesture.

 

[Armchair General Bob]

The incident does suggest that using exclusively Shia troops in FATA, as some have argued, is not a good idea, since the Shia-Sunni tensions will become an overpowering dynamic that will complicate things even further.

Does the Pakistani Army really do this? Do they divide their forces into Sunni Shia elements?

BB

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Does the Pakistani Army really do this? Do they divide their forces into Sunni Shia elements?

BB

As far as I know they do not.

Some units that have recruits primarily form areas that are Shia majority (such as the Northern Light Infantry in the Northern Areas) might have a larger proportion of Shia's due to local demographics.

I am not certain if that is still the case because the NLI was 'regularized' (upgraded to an Army Unit) after the Kargil Conflict, from a paramilitary force. The paramilitaries tend to recruit locally and stay that way.

The idea of deploying Shia troops was suggested by some commentators who thought that the religious and ethnic compulsions allegedly making Pakistani troops reluctant in fighting 'ethnic and religious kin' could be overcome through troops alien to the region ideologically.

I believe that was an extremely flawed and dangerous suggestion, since the resulting sectarian conflict would overshadow everything else.

PS: Funny avatar by the way

 

[All-Green]

As far as I know they do not.

Some units that have recruits primarily form areas that are Shia majority (such as the Northern Light Infantry in the Northern Areas) might have a larger proportion of Shia's due to local demographics.

I am not certain if that is still the case because the NLI was 'regularized' (upgraded to an Army Unit) after the Kargil Conflict, from a paramilitary force. The paramilitaries tend to recruit locally and stay that way.

The idea of deploying Shia troops was suggested by some commentators who thought that the religious and ethnic compulsions allegedly making Pakistani troops reluctant in fighting 'ethnic and religious kin' could be overcome through troops alien to the region ideologically.

I believe that was an extremely flawed and dangerous suggestion, since the resulting sectarian conflict would overshadow everything else.

PS: Funny avatar by the way

Spot on AgNoStIc MuSliM, it would never be productive, very strange idea i must say. Also as far as regional isolation is concerned, being Muslims and Pakistanis no Pak Army soldier really wants to participate in such a conflict where there really is no confirmed way to know whether the target is really guilty or innocent.

Also fighting with honour and being a shaheed is a dream of many soldiers and in such a conflict it has become really doubtful what is right and what is wrong (since innocents are caught in the crossfire).

No doubt i am totally against militancy and taking law into ones own hands but there are so many loose ends here (which government is not addressing) and inevitably all the crap is thrown at the ARMY despite many sacrifices.

Many suicide bombs blasts have occurred at Military check posts which shows that poor guys are giving up their lives and acting as targets instead of the common man but still the common man is not at all sympathetic to the ARMY and that is really demoralizing and frustrating for the soldiers.

This operation is not going to succeed without a major change in policy and for that our government has to enter into a serious and mature dialogue with many groups who have been dragged into this conflict.

 

[AliFarooq]

4 killed, 16 hurt in militants’ attack in Bajaur
Updated at: 1339 PST, Thursday, January 01, 2009

4 killed, 16 hurt in militants’ attack in Bajaur PESHAWAR: At least four people were killed and 16 others were injured after militants fired rockets on the civil colony of Khar’s Headquarter in Bajaur Agency on Thursday.

According to sources, militants fired rockets on the civil colony from some unknown location, killing at least four people and inuring 16 others.

The injured were rushed to the Agency Headquarter Hospital where two of them were said to be in critical condition.

Hospital’s sources confirmed that eight people were discharged after receiving emergency treatment. The rockets fired by militants also affected the several offices located in the colony.

Following the attack, the political administration has deployed an extra contingent of Bajaur Levies at sensitive installations across the agency.

 

[sallukhan]

Here is what People think USATODAY.COM

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (AP) — Some of the women were eating lunch, while others were busy making bread.
Then, the bombs fell like rain.

Pakistan's latest military offensive against Taliban-led insurgents in its northwest had reached 60-year-old Haya Bibi and her extended family. They soon abandoned their mud homes in the Bajur tribal region and joined an exodus of tens of thousands of civilians walking and driving across rugged terrain to escape a 17-day operation some now call a war.

Bibi and some 45 relatives have spent the past week in sweltering, mosquito-infested tents in Pir Piai village near Peshawar city in one of more than 20 relief camps the government says are for the displaced.

Like others among the nearly 1,000 people at this camp, Bibi won't utter a critical word about the masked militants in her area. Pressed on whether she blames the government or the Taliban for her current state, she diplomatically says both, and requests the two sides try to work things out peacefully.
al-Qaeda No
"We are the sufferers," a tearful Bibi says, fingering prayer beads while surrounded by a crowd of nodding relatives. "We don't want the fighting."

Aiding — and not disillusioning — those displaced by the war on terror is a huge challenge facing Pakistan as it tries to wipe out the insurgent presence in Bajur, a rumored hiding place for Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri.

U.S. officials say tribal regions such as Bajur are turning into safe havens for militants involved in attacks on American and NATO troops in Afghanistan.

Pakistani officials have been reluctant to divulge details of the operation in Bajur. Death tolls given more than a week ago put the number of suspected insurgents dead at more than 460 along with 22 paramilitary troops killed. No civilian death toll was given, though witnesses have reported dozens.

The information has been difficult to confirm because of the remote, dangerous nature of the fiercely independent and deeply conservative tribal areas, where the federal government has long had limited authority.

But if the numbers given so far are accurate, it is one of the bloodiest episodes since Pakistan first deployed its troops along its volatile border with Afghanistan in support of the U.S.-led war on terror nearly seven years ago.

Attempts to reach the army spokesman Saturday were not immediately successful. But previously officials have said army helicopter gunships and jets have been pounding militant positions since Aug. 6, when scores of insurgents attacked a military outpost.

The offensive comes amid exceptional political turbulence. Pervez Musharraf, a stalwart supporter of the U.S. in the war on terror, recently was forced to resign as president, and the young ruling coalition is on the brink of collapse.

And in Washington, American officials are worried about the new civilian government's resolve to fight militants.

Estimates vary, but at least 50,000 to possibly more than 200,000 people have fled Bajur and nearby Mohmand tribal region, officials say. Many are staying with relatives, while others are at camps facing difficult conditions and the prospect of disease.

The International Committee of the Red Cross said thousands of people had also shifted across the border into Afghanistan.

The U.S., which has pressed Pakistan to forcefully crack down on insurgents in its tribal belt, has declared the resulting civilian uprooting a "disaster" situation, and given $50,000 for aid such as gas stoves and utensils.

The conditions in the two camps visited by The Associated Press were dismal.

In Bibi's camp, for instance, the nearly 1,000 people, more than half of them children, are crowded into classrooms and tents. Babies' skins were red raw with mosquito bites. In the sweltering heat, one woman lay shivering under a blanket — a sign of the malaria medical officials say has sprung up.

Diarrhea is ravaging the population, camp officials said, and the smell of fecal matters hangs in the air. There's no air conditioning, which is especially tough on women, who are trying to observe their cultural and religious traditions of staying indoors and out of the sight of unrelated men.

Every day, more families are arriving. On Friday, children helped clear grass to allow space to set up more tents.

"It is so hard here," said Jamshid Khan, a 20-something with a bum leg who reached the camp five days ago. "We want to go back as soon as possible."

Pakistan's Taliban movement, meanwhile, has claimed responsibility for at least three major attacks in recent days, calling them revenge for the Bajur operation and a military offensive in Swat. One attack, a twin suicide bombing at a weapons manufacturing complex near the capital, Islamabad, killed 67 people.

Mian Iftikhar Hussain, the information minister for Pakistan's North West Frontier Province, which lies next to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and is absorbing many of the displaced, called the civilian exodus a "gesture of cooperation from the local people," to allow the operation against the insurgents to avoid "collateral damage."

"To us, the main objective is to bring peace and stability in this area," he said. "We will fight until the last victory."

In interviews at two camps visited by the AP, virtually no one would criticize the Taliban or openly support the military action.

It was difficult to say why — whether they were scared, sympathetic, or genuinely not bothered by the insurgents, or whether tribal loyalties wouldn't allow them to speak ill of the militants to a foreigner.

Did the Taliban force them to give up male members to fight the jihad? "No."

Did the Taliban threaten the people? "No — they leave us alone, and we leave them alone."

Did the Taliban punish men without beards or women who wandered out alone? "No ... they might encourage people to observe Islamic law, but most of us do so anyway."

Is the Interior Ministry chief correct when he says more than 3,000 armed militants — many of them from other countries — are in Bajur? "We don't want to take sides."

Three women, including Bibi, said they saw militants offer to pay drivers to give lifts to civilians trying to escape.

Sartaj Khan, a slender 21-year-old with a sad face in the Pir Piai camp, said, "If anybody says anything bad about the Taliban, they'll go after them."

Not far away, in a separate camp on the outskirts of Charsadda town, more than 150 people are staying in classrooms in a vocational school building.

Khan Wali, a 29-year-old with one wife and four children, said the military operation could lead to more sympathy for the Taliban.

"Why is the government bombing our homes? The Taliban want to bring peace to the area," he said.

He and others also decried suspected U.S. missile strikes that they said have killed innocent people in compounds allegedly inhabited by Taliban and al-Qaeda fighters.

"It is because of these atrocities that people are giving the militants more and more sympathy," said Mohammad Shoaib, a 23-year-old manual laborer.

 

[Kasrkin]

I am not certain if that is still the case because the NLI was 'regularized' (upgraded to an Army Unit) after the Kargil Conflict, from a paramilitary force. The paramilitaries tend to recruit locally and stay that way.

The NLI still consists of soldiers recruited from Gilgit and surrounding regions mainly because they are acclimatized and suited for the deployments the NLI is supposed to be carrying out. Even the officers are from surrounding areas and once they get commission their dream is to serve in the NLI with their brothers...which makes sense because these people speak their special language that is not Urdu, or Punjabi or Pashtu. There was chap with me, very simple lad. His brother was an officer too and was serving with an NLI unit in Waziristan. His dream was to join the NLI too. Furthermore the NLI people are not exactly Shia, they believe in a different Imam.

 

[Anwar2]

Pak Army soldiers who now come in frequent contact with their FATA prey / victims are deeply anguished and distressed by their mission. The shia troops factor was used with a bit of success initially, but pretty soon the sinister dimension dawned on the troops, NCO’s and Junior Officers.

An interesting pattern has emerged; the most enthusiastic proponents of the operation are usually Colonels or the Formation Commanders (Divisions or FC Commandant level). The Colonels wish to have some sort of an “achievement” in their records, and an iron clad reputation as anti-fundamentalist enlightened moderate liberal; a trait that will come in handy at the time of promotion Board (the benefits are enormous!).

The formation commanders are in the limelight; the Bara-sahibs in Bagram closely monitor their “performance” during the tri-partite meetings. Some times the enthusiasm borders on comic! Grapevine gossip with some degree of truth cites a Vehicles / Radios handover ceremony by the then US ambassador Nancy Powell to FC Commandant Gen Sadaqat. He wanted to express his gratitude by saying “TUSAN NE TO HOR WELE KUCH WEKHA HI NAHI WAI”; its English Transliteration was misconstrued as the Ambassadors ignorance of the ground facts!! Almost caused a diplomatic incidence!!!

Haya Bibi from Bajaur, you made the mistake of being born in the wrong part of the world 60 years ago. You just don’t know that your plight is an object of amusement to many of your own countrymen, because you are a FATA Pushtoon. You don’t realize that 250,000 internally displaced persons in Bajaur is proudly cited by the “Protectors or our National Borders” as a proof of their vigorous enthusiastic operations in support of their US / NATO “allies” (what allies!! Just chowkidars and camp followers). You don’t know that a daughter of this nation Afia Siddiki and her kids was sold to the Masters for a pittance!. At least you are still on your own soil.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear AgNoStIc MuSliM:

The Lashkars concept has gone out of fashion, it just lasted about 3 months. Lashkars were a drama enacted by our some ill-advised bubblehead political agents and local Army commanders. The main flaw with the Lashkar concept was the “Business Model” which focused on routing the payments through a few tribal leaders. These guys simply could not motivate the ordinary people to support their lunacy for a pittance.

Some of the Tori clans (minority) were then motivated on the Shia-Sunni lines; and appeared to have the desired effect for a while. But thanks to the intervention of Ulema from Fiqah Jafariah and sensible elements from Bangash sunni clans the carnage stopped.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear All-Green:
You are absolutely right. Cross Licensing and sale of RD-93 engines to Pakistan, and ignoring the noises made by India indicates a major policy shift in Russia.
India is now vigorously gyrating to the American tune, as the BPO and Software business has been 800% more profitable than dealing with Russia. As Corporate America sinks deeper into the abyss of recession, the US$ 100 b / year BPO now looks like a pipe dream.
The biggest problem is our political and military leadership. Russian weapon systems, State of the Art as they may be, do not bring along the “fringe benefits” that a US FMF / FMS deal brings. Such benefits range from outright cash commissions to “scholarships for the talented kids” on the low end.

 

[RedBaron]

Dear All-Green:
You are absolutely right. Cross Licensing and sale of RD-93 engines to Pakistan, and ignoring the noises made by India indicates a major policy shift in Russia.
India is now vigorously gyrating to the American tune, as the BPO and Software business has been 800% more profitable than dealing with Russia. As Corporate America sinks deeper into the abyss of recession, the US$ 100 b / year BPO now looks like a pipe dream.
The biggest problem is our political and military leadership. Russian weapon systems, State of the Art as they may be, do not bring along the “fringe benefits” that a US FMF / FMS deal brings. Such benefits range from outright cash commissions to “scholarships for the talented kids” on the low end.

Wrong. Back-office ops and technology are critical functions that cannot be turned off. Revenue growth of Indian IT companies may not be 40% but are more than 20% which is still healthy. The Indian economy as a whole is more resilient than many Western ones like Ireland which has all but collapsed.

If Russia antagonizes India, it will lose out to Western vendors in the growing Indian military market. As I pointed out in a different post, Western vendors are competing head-on with Russia. E.g. France offering full ToT for Dassault/Rafale on the MRCA bid.

Apologize for digressing from Bajaur topic, but I had to respond.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear RedBaron: You are right on the money! India is a huge and potentially very lucrative market for Western vendors.
BUT this is exactly where Russia is losing out … Fast. Russia’s share of new Indian acquisitions has already fallen to about 50% compared to the historic highs of 70’s and 80’s (nearly 100%). Lukewarm Indian interest in Brahmos and New Tactical Transport programs; and less than preferential attitude on the MRCA programs has made it abundantly clear to Russia that the Indian compass has finally swung towards Israel and the West.
Russia has paid an enormous strategic price for its “friendship” with India, including the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia does not like overt Indian support for US/NATO presence in the soft underbelly of Russia (Central Asia).
I suggest you please recheck the numbers on Indian IT growth story … TCS, Infosys, HCL are all shrinking.