Dear All-Green: You have made a thought provoking reference to the Russian dimension. It is hard to garner any real evidence of Russian involvement at this point in time, however circumstantial evidence shows that there may be some truth to it.
Russian policy cannot be gauged by the political signals emanating out of Kremlin alone. Afghan situation is by far too complex:
1. Early 2001 when Bush Putin were buddies: Russia wholeheartedly supported the USA in its initial mobilization in Oct 2001. In fact Russia worked with Uzbekistan and Kirghistan to get Manas, Karshi, Dushanbe and Termez Air bases organized in no time. Russian forces deployed in Tajikistan helped the Northern Alliance and US Special forces a great deal. USAF C-5, C-17 transited Russian air space; even US Navy fighters operated from Uzbekistan to hit Taleban positions in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kondoz. The reason was very simple: Russians despised and feared Taleban, and hated their support for the Chechen resistance.
2. Interestingly the first airplane to land in Kabul post Taleban was an Iranian AN-74!. Iranian Air Force in 2001 closely worked with the US Forces and Northern Alliance, because they too hated Taleban.
3. By late 2003 Russia discovered that their opposition to Invasion of Iraq did not amount to anything. They had become political lightweights. Condi, Donald Rumsfeld and Bush were pinching their toes. They got not even a token acknowledgement for their support to the USA, except a silly token membership of G-8, and be a member of European community. Russia was prompted to put pressure on Iran against its own best commercial interests.
4. From 2004 2006 several colored revolutions were orchestrated by USA in Ukraine, Kirghistan, Georgia; Russia found itself totally surrounded and choked.
The bottom fell out with the buildup of tensions between Georgia and Russia in April 2008. Russia had hit the rock bottom. The US prompted Georgian invasion in Sep 2008 woke the Russians from a deep slumber; they realized that they had been taken for a ride. Their main client state India was furiously gyrating its hips to the American Nuclear agreement; their Afghan Northern Alliance protégés were now committed American soldiers. Russians have now begun to realize that after all they are as much Central Asians as Europeans.
Now that NASHAY KA KHUMAR TOOT GAYA, Russia finds itself on one limb. They got serious troubles in Dagestan and Caucasia. The West is tightening the snooze of missile shield and NATO around them.
So, what is the most Logical course of action for Russia? Through investment of suitable high tech resources in friendlier factions amongst Taliban they hope to achieve the following:
1. Collapse NATO / US operations in Afghanistan
2. Develop positive vibes with their own Muslim population in Caucasian and Dagestani.
3. get rid of the NATO expansion menace and bring US / NATO to negotiating table. Get rid of Sakaasvilly like clowns.
4. Create security ties with Iran, and the emerging Iraq.
5. bring India back to the fold.
The biggest problem is to find the friendlier factions amongst the Taliban. Probably they may not have much difficulty after all those years.
Actually this could be a good opportunity for Pakistan too.
Russian policy cannot be gauged by the political signals emanating out of Kremlin alone. Afghan situation is by far too complex:
1. Early 2001 when Bush Putin were buddies: Russia wholeheartedly supported the USA in its initial mobilization in Oct 2001. In fact Russia worked with Uzbekistan and Kirghistan to get Manas, Karshi, Dushanbe and Termez Air bases organized in no time. Russian forces deployed in Tajikistan helped the Northern Alliance and US Special forces a great deal. USAF C-5, C-17 transited Russian air space; even US Navy fighters operated from Uzbekistan to hit Taleban positions in Mazar-e-Sharif and Kondoz. The reason was very simple: Russians despised and feared Taleban, and hated their support for the Chechen resistance.
2. Interestingly the first airplane to land in Kabul post Taleban was an Iranian AN-74!. Iranian Air Force in 2001 closely worked with the US Forces and Northern Alliance, because they too hated Taleban.
3. By late 2003 Russia discovered that their opposition to Invasion of Iraq did not amount to anything. They had become political lightweights. Condi, Donald Rumsfeld and Bush were pinching their toes. They got not even a token acknowledgement for their support to the USA, except a silly token membership of G-8, and be a member of European community. Russia was prompted to put pressure on Iran against its own best commercial interests.
4. From 2004 2006 several colored revolutions were orchestrated by USA in Ukraine, Kirghistan, Georgia; Russia found itself totally surrounded and choked.
The bottom fell out with the buildup of tensions between Georgia and Russia in April 2008. Russia had hit the rock bottom. The US prompted Georgian invasion in Sep 2008 woke the Russians from a deep slumber; they realized that they had been taken for a ride. Their main client state India was furiously gyrating its hips to the American Nuclear agreement; their Afghan Northern Alliance protégés were now committed American soldiers. Russians have now begun to realize that after all they are as much Central Asians as Europeans.
Now that NASHAY KA KHUMAR TOOT GAYA, Russia finds itself on one limb. They got serious troubles in Dagestan and Caucasia. The West is tightening the snooze of missile shield and NATO around them.
So, what is the most Logical course of action for Russia? Through investment of suitable high tech resources in friendlier factions amongst Taliban they hope to achieve the following:
1. Collapse NATO / US operations in Afghanistan
2. Develop positive vibes with their own Muslim population in Caucasian and Dagestani.
3. get rid of the NATO expansion menace and bring US / NATO to negotiating table. Get rid of Sakaasvilly like clowns.
4. Create security ties with Iran, and the emerging Iraq.
5. bring India back to the fold.
The biggest problem is to find the friendlier factions amongst the Taliban. Probably they may not have much difficulty after all those years.
Actually this could be a good opportunity for Pakistan too.