dr.knowhow
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Component level assembly is planned to be initiated by August 2021 and completed by March 2022, followed by Final Assembly Line and Ground / Flight Test activities. In other words, we are talking about an aircraft that its first production has already started.
As I mentioned before, although the initial planning was focused on AJT, the project has now turned into a multi-role platform for some understandable reasons. AJT, LIFT, Aggressor aircraft, Air patrol and -if the project is accepted- including Carrier Based Aircraft, it will become a common main platform with a wide range of services.
The short-term advantage of Hurjet is its indirect gains to MMU by running ahead of it. Comprehensive avionics development and integration activities such as the F-16-Özgür, and followed by such as the Hurjet project, that all are supporting elements for reduce the risk of the MMU project and shorten the project schedule. There was no problem in the structural part of the work anyway.
Its long-term advantage is, will provide a flexible and multi-role lightweight platform with lower maintenance costs which can be run for any situation where MMU will be costly. In this respect, the Hurjet project has the potential to find a place not only in foreign markets, but also in Turkish air force combat fleets in the next decade.
In the years when F-16s will be taken out of service completely, a table can be created as follows:
Hurjet AJT, LIFT
Hurjet B Light Attack, (C)AP
Hurjet C Naval Fighter (maybe another airframe with twin engine)
And list goes on with MMU and MIUS variants...
In short, it is no longer a dream for the Turkish air force combat fleets to reach a + 90% domestic supply rate in an average 20-year projection. Thanks to the steps taken today, logistics dependency will be largely eliminated from the 2030s.
As the cost of this transformation, the regional domination of the Turkish air force likely to fall into an interim-weak stage within 2025/2027-to-2034/2036. While TAI prepares these projects for production, one of the main work areas of the Turkish Air Force will be on how to manage this risk range. Therefore, in addition to the comprehensive F-16 modernization package, perhaps a stop gap solution is being evaluated.
I think Hürjet could potentially become a decent light attack aircraft but on the other hand should wonder where this light attack/fighter jet variant of Hürjet could fit inside the Turkish Air Force inventory.
It seems like alongside the growing economy of the Turkish Republic the Turkish Airforce is growing as well, but from what I've observed so far, the planned quantitatove expansion is reserved for thr TF-X and various UAVs.
TuAF seems to be planning to further use their Peace Onyx I F-16s, given that they have improved its structures so it could serve for additional 4,000 hours of flight duty, thus upgrading it with new avionics with Özgür project. That probably means service at least into mid 2030s and possibly even after 2040. I also expect Tukey to implement such upgrade for the Peace Onyx II ~ IV aircrafts as well.
The space left by the soon to be retired F-4s are going to be filled with TF-X a few years later. According to what the TuAF and SSB are claiming the TF-X would be produced in numbers bigger than 100 airframes. This would mean that it wouldn't only replace the 40-ish F-4s.
That all together would mean a TuAF inventory in the mid 2030s with 270-ish F-16s with upgraded avionics and 50~80- ish TF-X, depending on the budget restraints and production speed of TAI. Add several UAVs on top of that, ranging from Anka, Aksungur and so on.
I don't see a place in the near future where Hürjet attack aircraft fits, as I've mentioned above. So my take is that TuAF would only buy the ATJ and LIFT variant of the Hürjet in the near future. In such case, it is either left for TAI to fund the system integration of various combat systems like the radar and armaments themselves or the government paying for what they would probably not use for the sake of export.
Maybe things would change when the F-16s start retiring, but once more according to the Turkish officials, TF-X is aimed to cost around $80 milion flyaway. This is not cheap but also not too expensive in today's stamdards as well. In order to achieve sufficient economics of scale the TuAF has to replace F-16s with TF-X as well. Maybe only then they would produce a few Hürjet with combat capabilities for ligther duty missions like air patrolling or CAS. Still, that would probably be quite some time after the introsuction of the Hürjet. What do you think?
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