My opinion on the matter is that in the 50's 60's and 70's the US, USSR and UK came up with so many different types of aircraft and prototypes and there was so much real innovation and the last 40 years at least this has slowed down world wide. Is it because we have reached a peak in aircraft technology and performance? I don't think this is the case. It is Bureaucracy is the western world that is the problem. Programs and any sort of project are taking a lot longer and are much more expensive than they are envisaged. It's not because of knowhow or technology. Eurofighter program is just one example.
And in Russian, the problem was that at the end of soviet union they had no money to invest in continuing programs. They probably didn't produce new engineers to the same standard and ten or more years later they did not have the right talent in place when they wanted to restart the programs. So they had access to existing 80's tech but they didn't have the serious talent to innovate or take those existing platforms forward. They are just reinventing the Soviet wheels.
Now china doesn't have the bureaucracy problem, but they have a bad mentality in other areas. They are in a mode of copy and paste and aspire to western standard so they are not currently innovating. As long as you are playing catch up you will never be ahead. You need to innovate!
Now we come to Turkey. Turkey doesn't currently have a bureaucracy rot. They are growing and expanding and learning. They also have good educational institutions and programs in place that will continue to produce talent to take projects forward. They have also a strong industrial base but most import is that they are not afraid to innovate. They want to be better, they are not content with just buying the best western tech like other countries.
Now they are employing engineers from home and trying to redress the brain drain. In the future there will be more and better opportunities for young turkish engineers but also foreign engineers.
What is also important is the private contributions made by companies like Bayraktar Makine. Such companies are key to becoming a global tech power because they have to be innovative and effective in order to get contracts from home and abroad. Some will say they are Erdogan buddies but if that was the case then why are other countries ordering the equipment.
It was such competition between American companies that gave them the endless types of fighter jets over the decades until those companies got so comfortable with their position at home and abroad that they no longer need to innovate so what we have essentially in no progress for over 20 years since Raptor.
In my belief, Turkey will get there because of its mentality, it's unique position in the world, its work ethics and its existing infrastructure and it most importantly it's Will.
And European and US programs will get fewer and far between and take longer and cost much more than planned.
And China will master the Art of copying and then not know what to do until the US produce something better for them to copy.
