In this particular operation in Swat it is the first major incident. Incidents like these were quite commonplace when the military was deployed the first time around as well, and despite that the first phase did result in the Army driving out the TTP into the more far flung areas, and maintained relative calm until the peace deals under the ANP government.
This proves my point. When the army commits itself, it can defeat the militants or at least drive them out. How, then, did we reach a point where 80% of Swat is under Taliban control? When the Taliban publicly announces that they will be going around burning down girls' schools... why were they not guarded? Why did the army disarm local militias who wanted to fight the Taliban, and then abandon them? Why did the army claim that destroying a mobile FM transmitter is too difficult for it to accomplish?
How about this article on Dawn (
DAWN - Kamran Shafi Corner; January 13, 2009) that claims "Visitors to Swat tell of Pakistan Army and Taliban check posts a few hundred metres apart, army vehicles passing through Taliban check posts too." What is your reaction to that? Will you just dismiss it as hearsay?
You seem to be simply ignoring these problems and not factoring them into your analysis. Sure tactical mistakes will happen. Troops will be ambushed. Losses will be made. That's not what's going on here.
As for blaming the ANP peace deals (which I agree with you were a horrible idea) you conveniently forget all the peace deals the army itself has made with the Taliban. The Waziristan Accord? How about the peace deals it made with Baitullah Mehsud at the same time as the ANP was making theirs?
On the issue of redeploying 20 percent of the Army and not making a dent in its ability to ward of the hysterical warmongers in the East, that is a decision whose impact is best understood by the Army.
Look we both agree that boots on the ground are what it takes, but you seem unwilling to actually do it. You can't deflect things by saying someone else knows best because you could say that about anything.
Not only are we half the size of the IA, but the window of time Pakistan has in terms of obtaining a favorable outcome in the event of a conflict with India is smaller for us because of the disparity in resources, strategic stockpiles etc.
Think about what you're saying. You want to negotiate and make concessions to the Taliban -- a force literally around 1000 times smaller than the army -- yet stand up and be all macho to the Indians -- a force twice as large and better equipped. Either you're tough and macho and should stand up to the Taliban as well, or the whole thing is an act anyway. You don't make concessions to vastly inferior forces if you're strong.
By the way, why do you think India even wants to invade Pakistan? If they wanted to punish Pakistan for some reason, they could do that without ground troops. You think they enjoy Kashmir so much they want a problem 100 times bigger?
You are putting the cart before the horse here - the defeat of the Taliban, either in Afghanistan or Pakistan, will not be through pure military means alone. A political solution is part and parcel of this. But I agree with you that the political solution must be implemented from a position of relative strength, and not weakness such as the current one. To that extent this operation seems to be attempting to create that space from which the GoP can advance the Shariah Bill, have it endorsed by Sufi Mohammed, and then go after the elements that do not lay down arms.
Trying to appease them with sharia -- admitting that the government is completely powerless and chooses to submit rather than fight -- and then withdrawing troops so they can focus on India or Mullah FM or whatever wild goose chase you choose will lead to the same disasters as all of the other peace deals brokered with the Taliban. Absolutely nothing is being accomplished except Pakistan is giving in to their demands and giving them more power. All of the ground they will win in order to gain a position of strength in negotiation (as you assume the purpose is) will be lost.
What is Pakistan getting in return? Oh, I'm so sure thousands of militants will lay down their arms, just like what happened with the ANP deal you criticize! Yeah right! They will be marching around enforcing sharia however they see fit, weakening local structures even more.