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"As soon as night falls, our soldiers retreat into their camps while the jihadis rule the valley."
Maybe too much of a garrison mentality. COIN isn't a 9-5 gig and the militants are operating on an agenda set to a different clock.
I don't think anyone (at least in the international community) is buying the lame excuse that Pakistan can't solve it's terrorism problem because of unwarranted "belligerence" from India. India very much has the right to be belligerent given the unabated and repetitive acts of mass terrorism, mayhem, murder and subversive warfare that are being launched from Pakistan, thanks to an unparalleled terrorism infrastructure meticulously constructed over the period of a few decades as part of a (failed) national policy which now seems to have gone awry. I'm not sure what it is exactly that you're expecting from India in light of never ending attacks with the latest edition being the sort we saw in South Mumbai (obviously the social and financial nerve center)... pat Pakistan on the back and say shabaas beta, better luck "reigning in the terrorists" the next time around? Or follow the British model: express disappointment over Pakistan being a center of excellence for all things terrorism and then pull out the checkbook and write out a big fat one so that the current leader of Pakistan can pocket it and then make more empty promises? The sort of reaction you're seeing from India is exactly what any state in pursuit of progress and prosperity would have if they were constantly attacked viciously and violently by "non state actors" bred in another country (ostensibly devoid of any serious progressive aspirations of of its own) through institutions spawned by the said state to further its own interests.
It is up to Pakistan to resolve its own terrorism issues through earnest efforts, and most of all make sure it doesn't affect anyone outside its borders in the mean time. Blaming everyone else is neither going to help nor garner sympathy.
But the reality of the situation as I described it can be gauged from the fact that Obama and Biden both argued for addressing India-Pakistan tensions as a central issue during the Presidential campaign. Obama's close adviser at the time, Bruce Riedel strongly advocated such an approach.
Analysis in the West, such as that by Barnett Rubin and Ahmed Rashid, Shuja Nawaz, and many others argued to the necessity for normalizing the relationship and addressing Kashmir. And of course we had the recent statement by David Milliband in India.
The officials, who spoke on condition that they not be named, stressed that Holbrooke was going to India to discuss Afghanistan and not to mediate the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan, which have fought three wars since 1947.
US' Holbrooke to visit India to discuss Afghanistan | Reuters
I hardly think that Pakistan can shrug off the Mumbai episode as acts perpetrated by 'non state actors'. The question is, even if they were non-state actors, what is Pakistan doing to dismantle the terror networks aimed at India. If the Indian perception is that nothing meaningful is being done, then they may escalate the confrontation to a degree (recalling high commissioners, trade etc.).
Things probably will not get better on this front (not in the short term anyway)
Pakistan in Denial Over Alleged Links to Mumbai Attack - TIME
Obama and Biden plans have changed drastically after they have taken the office, the negoitation guru (Milliband) is coming for Pakistan and Afganistan issues only, not Kashmire.
"Pakistan is not 'shrugging off' the attacks, we would'nt have acted against the JuD or conducted any sort of investigation into the incident if that was the case, and told India to 'shove off'."
- It is too early to say whether the actions against JuD are purely 'cosmetic'. The Indian accusation is that a similar 'crackdown' on these outfits in 2001 (or was it 2002?) were an eye-wash.
The PPP's tantrums are are political posturing, just as they were in the run up to the elections - more a means to discredit Musharraf than any real indicator of the efficiency of Pakistani investigators. Now they have to go through with it since they made such a big deal out of it for their supporters. But you will notice that hardly anyone in the PPP talks about it anymore, since the actual objectives of overthrowing Musharraf and ending military rule have been accomplished.- It is also moot at what quality of investigation will be performed by the Pakistani agencies, when the President of Pakistan is himself crying hoarse over a UN/Scotland Yard investigation into his wife's death! Does not exactly inspire confidence when the head of state himself does not back his own investigative agencies.
Pakistan can only do so much in terms of preventing attacks on India. I outlined above that we have already done quite a bit, but given that we cannot prevent attacks within Pakistan ourselves, and are struggling with a sophisticated and well armed insurgency, there is as much guarantee of such an attack not happening again as there was before, and Indian posturing and war mongering means that Pakistani forces will continue to be primarily focused in the East.At any rate, IMO, the attitude of the Indians will depend to a large extent on the guarantees (public or private) that they receive on what Pakistan is doing to prevent other attacks in the future. If the Indian perception is that nothing will change, then there is no reason for them to take troops off the Indo-Pak border (or to support Pakistani separatists). From their viewpoint they have little to lose!
That is my point about the international community pussy footing around the real issues because India throws tantrums. Obama is constrained now as the POTUS, but both his and Biden's statements (during the campaign) and the statements and analysis of the others I mentioned, indicate that despite the 'official stance' there is understanding of the impact Indo-Pak hostility has on the region, and specifically the impact it has on the insurgency in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
If you read through my response to Zhero, I think I have outlined the connection as I see it.This is were i get really confused AM, The real issue is the Taliban and Al quida not Kashmire, interms of United States perspective. You are making it sound like Kashmir is the seed that sprouted movement of wahabism and extremism. The first priority for Obama is to control afganistan and errdicate these terrorist that are in the neighborhood.
I honestly think that Zardari Government has not yet played any Indian card let alone 'overplayed'. GOP should start showing the photographs of the uncircumcised genitals of the captured or killed terrorists as a proof that India is involved in Sawat and in other areas.Tangential at best? I mean, if you are looking towards noramalizing relations with the Indians, before you re-take control over swat, then you may have a very long wait......I do believe that, in this instance, you may have overplayed the 'India' card.
I don't think domestic public opinion in favor of the Kashmir freedom movement will allow the GoP to come down with a heavy hand on groups that are not involved in terrorism, as the LeT is. We won't support them materially, and we won't facilitate their infiltration into Indian Kashmir, but you can probably imagine the backlash were we to militarily act against them, going by the backlash against Pakistani operations against the Taliban. And unlike the taliban, Kashmir is a far more emotional and personal issue for Pakistanis. There is Kashmiri diaspora settled all over Pakistan.- I believe that the Indian fear (well founded or not, I don't know) is that all the insurgencies will be back on track, at a future date.
Point taken.- Tangential at best? I mean, if you are looking towards noramalizing relations with the Indians, before you re-take control over swat, then you may have a very long wait......I do believe that, in this instance, you may have overplayed the 'India' card.