Taiwan Conducts Live Fire Drills on Spratlys, Angering Vietnam

[Huaren]

Only working hard is not enough, you need the proper wisdom.

Since they don't possess the proper wisdom of China which was a civilization originator by itself.

For example, China always has the proper wisdom such as 欲速则不达, which is translated as the Rome was not built in one day. We are patient, even we want to build our own empire, we know how to plan it carefully step by step.

And let's compare with Japan in the modern era, they got a good opportunity to take on a weakened China. However, they were too hasty to build up their empire in just one shot. When they have annexed Manchuria, they didn't even take some time to digest it, then they immediately invaded the entire China.

This kind of immature behavior will not lead them towards the path of a superpower, and they even never learned their mistake in the past.

The US as a young nation was born as a genius, even they were very lucky, but they have the wisdom to seize the opportunities passed in front of them. The USSR was born as a powerful warlord with the superhuman strength, which also qualified them as being a superpower.

However, China's little Asian neighbors didn't have those natural born talent of the US or USSR, nor they possess China's ancient wisdom, so it is better for them to calm down a little bit, and stop being an immature hothead.

And after all those millenias and endless turmoils we have become obessed with balance and stability, especially during mid-end periods of each dynasties our ancestors have always become overfocused on 中庸之道, which always resulted in stagnation and waste of potential. In which case by knowing wisdom did not help us to stay wise all the time. Our civilization is gifted but always had difficulties to maintain spirit after reaching power and prosperity, instead to fall down into decadence and next doom and rebirth once again. I wish we could one day escape this vicious circle and never become careless, there was plight for decades/centuries each time and danger to lose ourselves forever like most of disappeared anicent civilizations.

As for our neighbours once someone got a taste of higher pride and the feeling or self conviction of being the real power that matters, there will be no way for them to give up (illusion or not)

 

[mike2000]

Yes, you're right, there must be collaboration and participation of the Great Powers. Cheers to that, buddy.

not just great powers, but All great powers and even smaller countries in the world as well.

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

And after all those millenias and endless turmoils we have become obessed with balance and stability, especially during mid-end periods of each dynasties our ancestors have always become overfocused on 中庸之道, which always resulted in stagnation and waste of potential. In which case by knowing wisdom did not help us to stay wise all the time. Our civilization is gifted but always had difficulties to maintain spirit after reaching power and prosperity, instead to fall down into decadence and next doom and rebirth once again. I wish we could one day escape this vicious circle and never become careless, there was plight for decades/centuries each time and danger to lose ourselves forever like most of disappeared anicent civilizations.

As for our neighbours once someone got a taste of higher pride and the feeling or self conviction of being the real power that matters, there will be no way for them to give up (illusion or not)

The reborn of the modern China means that we have finally managed to escape from this vicious circle.

As for our little neighbors, they have never tasted the real power, but still being so obsessed to acquire it.

 

[William Hung]

OFF topic? lol i was correcting Nihonji's comment, whats off topic on there bros?

not just great powers, but All great powers and even smaller countries in the world as well.

Because all this chit chat crap with your male-friend has nothing to do with Taiwan, Vietnam and the SCS. I doubt your grandad was the guy who conducted the live firing drills or the one angered in Hanoi, so no need to mention him.

I've reported two more of your posts. I will not answer you again on this matter, I'll just continue to hit your report button if you continue to go off-topic.

 

[mike2000]

Because all this chit chat crap with your male-friend has nothing to do with Taiwan, Vietnam and the SCS. I doubt your grandad was the guy who conducted the live firing drills or the one angered in Hanoi, so no need to mention him.

I've reported two more of your posts. I will not answer you again on this matter, I'll just continue to hit your report button if you continue to go off-topic.

ok mr blackflag.

 

[William Hung]

ok mr blackflag.

Nothing personal mate.

I want to know your opinions on my legal analysis.

Does the arbitral tribunal have jurisdiction (authority to give legally binding ruling) over the dispute?

If they do and the Philippines wins its case, will it legally trigger the US-Philippines MDT?

Most Chinese members think my analysis is just for trolling them. But if my analysis is correct, it has some very interesting legal consequences!!

 

[Aepsilons]

Most Chinese members think my analysis is just for trolling them. But if my analysis I'd correct, it has some very interesting legal consequences.

@mike2000 ,

 

[Carlosa]

I am just interpreting the fact.

Vietnam is just another Japan-like power hungry punk. With a bloody nose after the Vietnam War, they immediately invaded the Southeast Asia. This kind of behavior has no wisdom at all.

Even the Vietnamese members here like NiceGuy have openly admitted that they hate us because we have successfully sabotaged their plan of conquering the entire Indochina.

Your statements are completely against the established facts of the time.

The Khmer Rouge created all by itself the events that lead to Vietnam's invasion of Cambodia. I remember 100% clearly from my own memories of that time period (as well as the historical record, which can't be denied) that the Khmer Rouge kept raiding and attacking Vietnamese villages and territory in the Mekong Delta, murderous attacks killing a lot of civilians. They were warned many times by the Vietnamese to stop, but they continued, so when Vietnam had enough, they invaded Cambodia and deposed the Khmer Rouge from power, which in the end saved Cambodia from itself since it was practicing genocide against its own people.

Is there anybody here saying that a country is supposed to tolerate repeated attacks against its own population and do nothing? Would China tolerate that?

Is there anybody here that is going to defend the Khmer Rouge? I think the historical record is clear enough right?

Who supported the Khmer Rouge and their barbaric policies at the time? Only 2 countries in the whole world: China and Thailand.

Maybe people here are not aware that the nationalistic / extremest elements in Cambodia have quite a bit of bad blood with Vietnam from a historical perspective because south Vietnam used to be Khmer territory in the past and they would like to see it returned to Cambodia. That view is still held by many Cambodians today and there have been riots, etc very recently because of that and the present Cambodia opposition party holds those views still today.

It is because of that nationalistic extreme position on that issue that the Khmer Rouge was repeatedly attacking Vietnamese territory at the time.

So, check the historical facts before you open your mouth and assign blame. China has responsibility in the Cambodian genocide that killed millions of civilians.

 

[Rechoice]

I think the first thing that very importance this arbitration is that the Nine- dash claim of China is baseless. Every thing will come in.

The reborn of the modern China means that we have finally managed to escape from this vicious circle.

As for our little neighbors, they have never tasted the real power, but still being so obsessed to acquire it.

China has her misunderstanding, VCP is not puppet of China in cold war even though until now.

I can say it because I'm not related to communist VN, my grandopa' father was landlord. My father couldn't joined in VCP too.

CPC is not communist party, her policy is base on ancient idea of China expansion policy.

 

[Carlosa]

Bro as much as i sympathise with Vietnam's position in spratlys islands case/dispute. I must say you people should be realistic as well. Of course the U.S is looking out only for its own interests, why wouldnt it? Every country is only out for their own interests(philippines included). If you people want the U.S to intervene and shed its blood(and pput its own territory/economy in danger as well) for Vietnam/philippines, then you people have to first solve your problems among yourselves, afterall, Philippines and Vietnam still claim the same islands as well, same with Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines , Malaysia, Indonesia etc, you all have competing cliams with each other one way or another. So why will the U.S intervene to help you people when you cant even help yourselves/solve your issues among yourselves? If you people had solve your disputes among yourselves, then it will be much more easier for the U.S to look at things from a China vs YOU ALL perspective, but as of now, its not the case and there wont be any direct intervention from the U.S no matter the situation(that's something im sure about).

So get your acts together first among you people, that will be a good first step to face china later and more pragmatically. Else you people are not much different from China, since you all seem to be looking out for yourselves/own interests instead of acting for each other/as a group. That doesn't help things. No hard feelings though. Just my 2 cents.

Did you miss my second sentence? I said that the US will intervene because of their own self interest.

Of course it would be better if the countries involved were to settle their own differences, but it takes 2 to tango, can't force that. Myself, I think only arbitration can accomplish that.

US has his own interest there, they can't allow China to take over the region and they have a defense treaty with Philippines, so if China crosses the red line, they will get involved. Period.

 

[Aepsilons]

A picture of Itu Aba (Taiping) Island,

 

[kyle Chiang]

My friend, China can only depend on the blue part of the provisions because the part you hightlighted in red is even weaker for China to invoke. The arbitration case that the Philippines is bringing to the tribunal is not a dispute concerning or involving historic bays or historic titles.

Firstly, China does not possess anything in the Spratly that can be regarded, under UNCLOS's legal definition, as a "bay." Here is how UNCLOS defines a bay in article 10:



Everything currently in China's possession are technically "reefs" under UNCLOS definition. I was being very lenient to consider the possibility of declaring 3 of those reefs as being "islands" because they have a few rocks exposed during high tide. But that's even really stretching it a bit. It's likely that the tribunal would declare them all as reefs. So to even consider them as "bays" is out of the question. The arbitration case will not be a dispute concerning or involving historic bays.

Now, let's look at the second part of that clause. Is the arbitration case dealing with a dispute concerning or involving "historic titles"? The answer is no. Some Chinese and Viet members here were debating about historical evidences and the historical territorial entitlement of their country, and that is what you would call a dispute concerning historic titles. But the Philippines'arbitration case will not involve any dispute on historic titles.

So if this arbitration case does not concern or involve "historic bays or titles", then China cannot invoke their 2006 declaration based on article 298 to reject the tribunal ruling.



The best option China has is to invoke their 2006 declaration based on the clause that I've hightled in blue:



But article 15 (22.2km territorial water delimitation between adjacent coasts), article 74 (EEZ delimitation between adjacent coasts) and article 83 (continental shelf delimitation between adjacent coasts) are not involved in this arbitration case at all. As argued earlier, all of the reefs currently in China's possession does not have any EEZs, Continental shelves or water boundaries.

Summary: China is depending on its 2006 declaration to declare that the arbitration tribunal does not have jurisdiction over the dispute and so China can reject the tribunal's ruling. However, China used article 298 to make it's 2006 declaration. And article 298 is too specific such that it only applies to a few specific kind of disputes. As I have argued here, it is unlikely that the tribunal would accept that article 298 can be applied to the dispute that the Philippines is currently raising. Simply, the dispute does not concern or involve water boundary delimitations between adjacent coasts, historic bays or titles.

@Chinese-Dragon @kyle Chiang

Thank you a lot for searching such details and your sincere mind to analyze this problem.
I have read your words carefully.What you said is mainly consist of these points:
(1)This arbitration case does not concern or involve "historic bays or titles"
(2)2006 declaration of China can't be used in this issue refer to (1).Therefor,China should not refuse arbitration.
(3)All of the reefs currently in China's possession does not have any EEZs, continental shelves or water boundaries.So China has broken few clauses of UNCLOS engagement.
Maybe the misunderstanding and disputes key is in your opinions.
There are few Chinese points:
(1)This issue has involved in historic and titles. We firstly mapping and named these islands such as Huangyan island.In 1279,Yuan dynasty has started a project "mapping the four seas of China"(四海测绘) in this island.In January,1935,China's amphibious map review committee list this island as one of Chinese South-China sea islands.PH firstly claimed for these islands in 1946.
(2)So,2006 declaration of China can be used even concerning to "historic bays or titles".And in Article 298 in 2006 declaration of China:(iii) this subparagraph does not apply to any sea boundary dispute finally settled by an arrangement between the parties, or to any such dispute which is to be settled in accordance with a bilateral or multilateral agreement binding upon those parties.This is a another specific line comparing to the chaotic history disputes.
(3) Chinese water boundaries is based on our nine-dotted line and the Taiping island of Taiwan proves the EEZs, continental shelves of China.
Added points of China:
(1)These disputes should be solved by bilateral negotiations.Taking tough measures or playing international politic game will only hurt our relations.
(2)PH has presented the appeal to ICJ.We will reject the arbitration by law within UNCLOS and respect the decisions of international court.

 

[Cossack25A1]

Considering that Taiwan/ROC conducted live-fire drills on that area, the current situation will become more tense as while ROC and PRC have the same objectives - that is to lay claim on that whatever-name sea, the political status of Taiwan is contested by Mainland China, seeing the former as a province of the latter.

Just one mistake from either of the claimants and the whole area would become a battleground.

 

[Aepsilons]

Considering that Taiwan/ROC conducted live-fire drills on that area, the current situation will become more tense as while ROC and PRC have the same objectives - that is to lay claim on that whatever-name sea, the political status of Taiwan is contested by Mainland China, seeing the former as a province of the latter.

Just one mistake from either of the claimants and the whole area would become a battleground.

Is the Philippine Armed Forces ready in such an event that happens? Are the Philippine Marines and Philippine Army ready or have such contingency plans in the event an outbreak occurs?

 

[Carlosa]

Is the Philippine Armed Forces ready in such an event that happens? Are the Philippine Marines and Philippine Army ready or have such contingency plans in the event an outbreak occurs?

Philippines lacks the air / naval assets to project its marine / army forces into the contested territory.

They have a few means of transporting marines such as a few LST's etc, but its not enough. They are getting more assets but it will take a few years until they develop a minimum credible deterrence.

At present, there is not a single ship with missiles and there is no air force.

Lets keep in mind that we are talking about projecting forces into reef areas, they are not even islands, so there is no ground where to actually place marine forces. The assets needed are mainly naval with air support.