Swat Operation II

[waraich66]

It is as if the Zardari Administration set a house on fire and then blocked the fire trucks trying to put that fire out. After endorsing the Mushar-ruffian polices, these villians are now cajoling with the nation by merely putting up cosmetics gestures against the very dangerous and alarming challenges. Biggest of them is the anarchy and militancy in Swat and FATA region.

It seems that we have left that for Americans to resolve. We are repeating the same old blunders, by thinking that this time it would be different. Not only did these policies of the past fail royally, they helped create the crisis we now find ourselves in badly with no way out seemingly. Yet many in Islamabad believe we should go down that road yet again in hopes that this time it will be different.

Preventing wildfires is something that desperately needs to be done in any crisis condition anywhere in the world. What we need to understand is that having our country entangled in terrible crisis is not something new in the history. It happens to the nation and it is where the resolve of the nations and the caliber of the leaders is tested. Those who get over these crisis shine through the pages of history and secure their future, which also holds many new challenges for them. Nothing is for granted in this world.

Enough of the lip service and enough of the smiles and enough of the apathy of Pakistanis. If Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhary is reinstated, it is very well, but if he is not then there must not be any agitation in the so-called peaceful areas of Pakistan. This very denial of promises by the PPP would combust any support for them and would automatically wipe the Zardari mafia from the scene. Justice Iftikhar issue must not be our top priority right now, though no doubt it’s a frontline issue.

The real issue is of survival. Enemy is at our doors and we have got every right to know as what is happening in Swat and FATA. How come some few thousands of Talibans are managing to survive and fight out our well-trained armed forces? What actually is happening over there? What’s the use of all this media frenzy and scores of channels when we don’t have live, proper, thorough and true coverage of the area? We must not blanket the Swat issue lest it becomes another East Pakistan. God Forbid, it was the same PPP in 71 when Pakistan was dismembered, and now it’s the same PPP when Swat is burning.

Stop Swat from Becoming East Pakistan | The Pakistani Spectator

Agreed that always PPP government failed to restore unity and peace in country but these jehadi mullahs should understand that Pakistan has same position as was in 1971 ,US is increasing forces in western boraders and CA are in indian sea to support army if there is any plan to attack inside pakistan and from western boarder india and israel under preparation to attack.

Jehadi Mullahs are acting same as makti bhani .

 

[belarusian]

Agreed that always PPP government failed to restore unity and peace in country but these jehadi mullahs should understand that Pakistan has same position as was in 1971 ,US is increasing forces in western boraders and CA are in indian sea to support army if there is any plan to attack inside pakistan and from western boarder india and israel under preparation to attack.

Jehadi Mullahs are acting same as makti bhani .

1) restore unity on what basis?

2) unfortunately america will apparently continue to make attacks inside pakistan for the indefinite future. for the stated purpose of disrupting attacks from pakistan on afghanistan or even america.

3) lets suppose that there is a secret agenda and that the jihadi violence is actually an american policy to destroy pakistan. I have trouble understanding this scenario.
If the pakistan state fails what replaces it and what advantage is there for the israelis or the indians or anyone else?





3) to increase the scale and scope of these attacks

 

[waraich66]

1) restore unity on what basis?

In SWAT uptill 1970 Shariah courts are working ,local population now demanding restoration of same system of justice ,even ruling party ANP also submitted request to PPP highly currupt leadership for restoration of shariah courts but President is delaying without any reason.

Secondly ,local governemt funds are freezed by president ,army is helping police to restore law and order .In this senario PPP is responsible or not.?

2) unfortunately america will apparently continue to make attacks inside pakistan for the indefinite future. for the stated purpose of disrupting attacks from pakistan on afghanistan or even america.

They are doning these attacks to creat problem for PA ,because they know very well pustoon's dont spare enemy and even friend of enemy.

3) lets suppose that there is a secret agenda and that the jihadi violence is actually an american policy to destroy pakistan. I have trouble understanding this scenario.
If the pakistan state fails what replaces it and what advantage is there for the israelis or the indians or anyone else?

They are doing planning to weaken PA capabilities by engagging in two fronts eastern and western ,by creating internal problems as they did in bangladesh and then there is possibility the send para troopers to capute FATA and SWAT.
Pakistani nation is brave nation they will fight uptill last drop of blood ,but we have to act and think like one nation .

3) to increase the scale and scope of these attacks

Pakistan is not weak country ,it has enough nukes to turn india and US ships into ashes and destroy all assets of US and Israel within the limits of 2500KM (The Hatf VI is a two-stage solid fuel missile which can carry nuclear and conventional warheads with high accuracy, the statement said. An advanced version has a potential range of 2,500 km (1,560 miles).)

.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Maj. Gen. Athar Abbas (DG ISPR) in an interview on the Swat situation.

Assad shared this with me earlier, not sure if he posted it on this thread already, but here it is. Apologies to the non-Urdu speaking members, I'll try and post some of the main points touched upon, and hopefully some of the others can help out in that respect as well.

Second Opinion - 4 February 2009 | pkpolitics.com

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

1. Situation is bad again becasue the Security forces did not have orders to initiate any operations while the recent 'peace deal' was being attempted. Categorically stated that the military had strict orders not to initiate any offensive operations when the new government came to power.

2. The militants took advantage of the halt in operations to infiltrate into local populations, kill those who opposed them and supported the Army earlier. This has also made it harder to get people to support the SF's as informants etc.

3. Day and night patrolling is being conducted with the restart of the operation.

4. 3000 to 4000 estimated 'hardcore militants'. Approximately 12000 SF's (Army, FC, Police)

5. Going forward, the civilian government needs to step up and ensure that the locals are supported through law enforcement, reconstruction and development.

 

[muse]

A dangerous trend
Talimand Khan


Swat, the paradisal valley that once attracted throngs of tourists, has been devastated by the insurgency that gained momentum in 2007.

The military has already conducted two concerted drives to root out extremist elements, and is now in the midst of a third. Each time, natives were told that this would be the last operation. Yet the extremists return and so does the military. Civilians then face the brutalities of the militants on the one hand and collateral damage on the other.

The people of Swat have never been extremist in their outlook towards religion. Even today, as evidenced by surveys, virtually the entire population of the valley abhors the militants.

That said, there is an extremely dangerous sentiment that is setting in among the people: anger and resentment at the state security apparatus’ inability to tame the militancy. Indeed, increasingly, the people of Swat are finding holes the state’s explanations of why this is so, and are growing alienated from the army. This is the real problem, whose repercussions could be dire in the long run.

Let us view the situation from the perspective of the Swati people.

There are three popular explanations provided for the Swat insurgency.

First, that a legal vacuum prevailing due to a dysfunctional judicial system allowed the Taliban to step in, with the people remaining indifferent. Proponents of this view argue that after the merger of Swat district with Pakistan proper and the imposition of the PATA regulation, a legal vacuum was created which disappointed the people who were used to the quick justice of the Wali era.

This argument is correct in that the natives were not satisfied with having Swat, a relatively more developed and civilised part of the country, relegated to a status equivalent to the underdeveloped Dir and Malakand areas through the notorious PATA regulation. However, there was never any serious debate on moving towards an Islamic system — sharia — let alone one that is as narrow and harsh as that of the Taliban.

The second, more mainstream, argument is that extremist elements — read Sufi Muhammad and Maulvi Fazlullah — had considerable leverage with the locals and thus managed to facilitate their insurgency. In reality, Sufi Muhammad was neither indigenous nor was he brought to prominence by local actors. Rather, as Major Amir (retd), then DG IB, said on record, Sufi Muhammad’s Tehreek-e Nifaz-e Shariat-e Muhammadi (TNSM) was organised thanks to subtle manipulation by the local administration of the erstwhile Malakand Division as well as by elements from the agencies. The objective was very limited: the then administration of Malakand wanted to regain the power that it enjoyed under PATA, an arrangement that had been dismantled through a Supreme Court order.

Similarly, Maulvi Fazlullah initiated his activities from an extremely small establishment. He was banished from his neighbourhood mosque due to his extremist views on jihad; locals also pleaded with the police to stop his radio transmissions.

However, the local government, in a meeting with the jirga, of which this author was a part, flatly expressed its inability to do so given that communications was a federal subject! Then, despite repeated requests from the locals and editorials in the country’s liberal newspapers, the establishment continued to ignore Fazlullah as he went on a rampage across the valley with his pro-jihad message.

The third and final argument is that the militancy in Swat is a reaction to the American-led occupation of Afghanistan. Again, facts do not back this position. There has hardly ever been any Swati presence in jihadi organisations, be they oriented towards Afghanistan or India. Swat is not known as a place where ultra-right sentiment flourishes. In fact, among Pakhtuns, Swatis are known to be a more materially driven people.

Further, before the non-Pakhtun presence was witnessed within the militant enclave in Swat recently, the area was never seen as a sanctuary for Afghanistan-linked militants. In fact, even Fazlullah, apart from his modestly-sized band of militants, has been unable to recruit natives to join his cause. In short, while resentment against the ‘American agenda’ grows, it is no worse than in the rest of the country.

As none of the societal arguments hold for the Swat insurgency, Swatis are wondering whether the state argument, i.e. the state has not been sincere in its efforts, is more realistic.

Swatis ask why Sufi Muhammad was not kept in check by those who facilitated his rise; why was Fazlullah not tackled when he had been condemned by his society and was running a lone propaganda project; why did the intelligence agencies fail to predict Fazlullah’s behaviour and movement; why, even at a later stage, did the state not take notice of the public burning of CD shops and TVs (the same led to a major offensive by the state in Islamabad)?

Further, why has the security apparatus failed to cut the militants’ supply lines; how come random journalists can talk to Fazlullah but security forces are unable to track him down; and if the state’s helplessness is genuine, how was the administration able to successfully hold general elections in Swat?

The above is not to point fingers at the state. Rather, it is to highlight the questions facing the embattled people of Swat. They remain unsure about their state’s sincerity in fulfilling its social contract with the people. This is an extremely dangerous trend which, if not tackled, could further alienate the people from the state. It is high time that the state rethinks its security paradigm and become more open in its communications with the people. It should clear up the contradictory picture that is forming in the people’s minds.

Talimand Khan is currently based at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute in Islamabad and is a native of Swat. He can be reached at talimand@sdpi.org

 

[waraich66]

Fazullah or Sufi muhammad not suddenly stand up and started armed gurrilla war ,there is more then 50 years of ground work behind it, local people are islamic minded were aganist policies of government but kept silence for many years now they have gained strength that is reason controlled whole SWAT and spreading and working in other area also ,so ground work network is now completed in whole Pakistan only few areas have shown resistance against government ,if my analysis is right you will listen more news in other part of pakistan as well .

 

[Anwar2]

Dear Kasrkin:

Thoroughly enjoyed your post for its sheer irony and its rather twisted entertainment value:

“”first Al-Qaeda/Taliban militant stepped into our land. Then it became our war, and all their subsequent deeds should have made it amply clear, if there were any doubts in the first place, as to the fact that they are our enemies and their agendas have no place for Jinnah’s vision””.

So it was Jinnah’s vision to:
• Turn Pakistan into a US Colony and Pak Army into ARVN!.
• Use Pak Army to kill Pakistani citizens on Pakistani soil.
• Abduct and sell a Pakistani daughter Afia Siddiqi to US intelligence agencies and then gloat over “sterling contributions to War against Terror”.
• Apprehend and sell anyone with bread to the Americans for internment at Guantanamo bay, so as to look great on podium with Bush and Blair.
• Facilitate US UAV strikes on Pakistani territory.
• Throw the Kashmiris to the wolves and enter into a submissive truce with India (Bhutanization) and then call it “tactical withdrawal”.

Quaid-e-Azam Mohammed Ali Jinnah ordered Gen. Gracey, the then Commander in Chief of Pakistan Army to intervene in Kashmir in late 1947. Gen Gracey Refused the father of the nation!.

His call for the liberation of Kashmir was answered by the Qazirs, Mehsuds, Afridis, Swatis, Chtralis. “Renegade” politician Abdul Qayyum Khan, and “renegade” officers like Brig Aslam Khan, MG Akbar, W/C Asghar Khan provided the core logistics support.

In certain ways TTP is much closer to Jinnah’s vision than our conformist Political and Military leaders who have the demeanor of a loyal mule, always need the patronage of a ‘Gora sahib”.


“”However the notion that Musharraf and his top brass allied with the US instead of the Taliban just so that they can fill their personal pockets and fortunes with American ‘bribes’ is retarded. Unless you call the withdrawal of crippling economic/military sanctions and the sale of much needed military equipment to the armed forces of Pakistan a ‘bribe’, your claims are baseless and vulgar and counter-productive.””

So you call the sale of a few battered AH-1, some NVG equipment and 10 odd short range radars as“ much needed Military equipment”?

• How many new F-16 C/D squadrons have been raised under the new American patronage?
• How many AH-64D’s have been delivered?
• How many M1A2 independent armored brigades have been raised?

Actually our Military buildup scorecard was a lot better under Ayub Khan or even Zia-ul-Haq.

Musharraf and his successors have turned Pakistan into a nation of “BEGANI SHAADI MEIN ABDULLAH DEEWANA”

We are DEEWANAS on an unprecedented scale; we are spending about US$ 10 b / year while destroying our country; and getting paid a paltry US$ 1.2 b / year.


“”when he killed a SSG battalion commander who was responsible for trying nothing other than blowing a way through which the girls can escape his madness.””

May Allah bless the soul of Lt Col Haroon-ul-Islam. He is will Allah, and Allah’s judgement is supreme. I am overwhelmed by sadness and rage against Musharraf and his coterie of Generals who used SSG in the Lal Masjid tragedy. Who will answer the souls of those 300 innocent girl students?

Musharraf is a highly courageous and gutsy leader, he declared War on Allah and didn’t flinch for a second.

 

[muse]

The chorus of the demented on defence.pk grows daily - now those patriots who destroy renegades and those terroists who kill innocent pakistanis by making of themselves bombs, are by some called Muslims.

It will take time, but Insha'Allah, those who support lunes who imagine that they are God or His Prophet and command innocent peoples to do violence against innocent pakistanis and then try to escape in Burkha like the pimp that they are, for these and their supporters, if hell does not have a special area for them, then at least here on this earth they should have a special area and they be accorded special treatment.

 

[waraich66]

Jazakallah Anwar2, you have summerized whole story ,but no one believe you ,our ear are not familar with these voices or not want to listen ,they are tunned with western music

 

[Anwar2]

Dear Karskin:

“”If you, a ‘patriotic’ Pakistani can blow things so out of proportion then why can’t they?””

You often equate your servitude to the US neo-con policies with Patriotism. In much the same way as a Mullah is not a THEKEDAR of Islam; people of your elk are not THEKEDARS of Patriotism. All of us at this forum are probably more committed to Pakistan and its core values than your good self.

Pak Army has not been used for exactly very patriotic purposes all the time. In the past 61 years its Full Scale engagement record with the enemy is about 37 days.

The Army has been consistently misused in East Pakistan, Balochistan, FATA, Sind, NWFP. This national asset has been misused to kill a million Pakistani citizens in East Pakistan, several thousands in Marri-Bugti areas in 1973-76, Waziristan (2003-now), Bajaur, Swat.

The main fault lies with the quality and caliber of our Generals, makes a deadly combination once punctuated with greed and lust for “booty”.

“”You think the US interferes in FATA a lot right now? Wait till you see what they’ll do to that little piece of land if we cede responsibility of it over to the Taliban. I can give you a hint: it has something to do with B-52 bombers and incendiary weapons.””

Scaring the nation to death without a shot being fired??? This sickening formula is obsolete now, has been used for good 9 years by now.

 

[Anwar2]

AgNoStIc MuSliM

Situation is bad again becasue the Security forces did not have orders to initiate any operations while the recent 'peace deal' was being attempted. Categorically stated that the military had strict orders not to initiate any offensive operations when the new government came to power.””

Vow …. Those 500,000 internally displaced Pushtoon refugees facing cold, hunger and harassment are out there on a Army sponsored picnic?


“”Day and night patrolling is being conducted with the restart of the operation””.

So that solves the problem? Eh?


“”Going forward, the civilian government needs to step up and ensure that the locals are supported through law enforcement, reconstruction and development.””

That’s a Cruel joke .. to say the least.

 

[Anwar2]

“”These ‘corrupt, fantasizing evil’ generals have ensured that Pakistan cannot be invaded like Iraq by anyone””.

The US chooses its enemies rather wisely. Even back in Sep 2001 the US did not have the capacity, perhaps then it had the will. US would have launched a frontal attack on Pakistan a long time ago, if it could.

“Axis of Evil” countries like Iran and North Korea were left alone, just because the potential risks by far outweighed the rewards.

If Pakistan with its minimalist Nuclear arsenal has not elevated to the status of a piousness shrimp, then why have an Army at all?

In general, our Generals are corrupt, but not necessarily evil. Their biggest problem is incompetence that breeds a level of intimidated fascination with everything American. Majority of them (barring a few) genuinely believe that the slightest expression of sovereignty or dignity will result is annihilation of Pakistan with B-52’s, JDAMS and Mavericks.

 

[Anwar2]

asaad-ul-islam:

Lets clear a few misconceptions:

“”if we have access to satellite images in realtime, it would just be a matter of coordinating airstrikes on militant groups congregating whereever they are””.

Spy satellites or Earth Resources satellites are always in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), between 250-600 kms, usually in elliptical Polar orbits. Their orbital period is between 100-150 minutes around the earth. They may be sun-synchronized to revisit the same spot once every 24 hours; that too if the cloud cover and haze / dust parameters are right.

Therefore please forget about your dream of “surgical strikes” against Pakistanis on Pakistani soil.


“”while the army has acquired a few LUNA UAV's from Germany at ridiculous prices””

Yes, Commissions and kick-backs is what fuels Army acquisitions; that’s what impresses our Generals.


“” UAV's are supplying cheaper images in realtime as compared to satellite imagery. instead of reconnaisance by aircraft sorties and wasting fuel, we can acquire cheap UAV's to gather intel. each unit of troops-if we organize groups of 50-100 soldiers””

Great Argument! But the low powered small UAV operations in Swat / FATA are marred by terrain masking. Using Sat Links means a much bigger payload, and that means more expensive UAV’s.

Wish you demonstrate the same level of enthusiasm on UAV’s role in True Boot national Defense.

 

[Anwar2]

Dear Pashtun:

That’s the most beautiful and concise summarization of facts. Request your permission to cite your Quote to my friends.

(1) introduction of the rancid notion of "Islamic fundamentalism,"
(2) classification of Islam;
(3) equating "fundamentalism" with extremism and then terrorism;
(4) removal of governments, like Mr. Erbakan in Turkey, for having affiliations with Islam
(5) support of governments' cracking down on "Islamic extremists" such as Egyptian and Algerian regimes;
(6) development of agendas for government's like Musharraf;
(7) initially supporting the Taliban and then demonizing them to show the world the failure of Islam.