South China Sea Arbitration News & Discussion

[Kiss_of_the_Dragon]

unsinkable ... nature takes all..

Really, This unsinkable carriers scare the nature but also scare our "voisines"

 

[gambit]

http://nation.com.pk/international/...-pakistan-support-china-on-sea-issue-diplomat

No offence BUT for a Professional you seem awfully frustrated that no one is taking this news seriously. Did you stop and start to think that no one gives a damn and this world has got bigger fish to fry. Considering the mess Americans have made in middle east who would follow you blindly? Euorpeons? Common wealth Nations? UK? France? Germany? Who knows maybe if Donald trump get elected he will demand it away from china

The reality is that not even SCS nations will follow you if you Americans decide to embark on another one of long list of failures.

And you are wrong.

A lot of people, the kind that make more money than you, that have more military experience than the blustering PDF Chinese, and the kind that actually read which is more than we can say for most of the people on this forum, take this UN decision seriously.

While it maybe easier to travel on land, one can travel much farther on sea, this mean for countries that shares bodies of water, maritime traditions and laws greatly contributes to regional pecking order, read: balance of power. Either China, who had been trying to arbitrate individually and failed, renounces UNCLOS, or reinterpret those maritime traditions and laws to favor China and try again to argue those reinterpretations inside UNCLOS legal framework. Neither options are feasible.

It is not that China cannot withdraw from UNCLOS. Certainly she can, and I would dare to guess that there are many regionally who secretly wishes China would withdraw. But as I said earlier, withdrawal would leave China vulnerable to responses, from greater latitudes, that China cannot predict and anticipate.

It is not that China cannot reinterpret maritime traditions and laws. Certainly she can and China does have the muscle to back up those new interpretations. But this is not the 17th, 18th, or even 19th century where affairs of states in one part of the world have insignificant effects on the affairs of states in another part of the world. This is the 21st century where China insisted to have seats and influences on many tables, from economic to military, that created this inter-dependent world. Current maritime traditions and laws have created stable relationships among all sea faring countries. No one is going to blindly accept anyone's reinterpretations of those traditions and laws that obviously will put many at disadvantages. China's claim to the entirety of the SCS was that surprise attack, an Asian 'Pearl Harbor', if you will.

So when I said that neither options are feasible, it is to mean that in the long term, China will have PERSISTENT negative perceptions and consequences not just in Asia but worldwide. Am not talking public polls so do not bring up that silly poll that says the US is the greatest threat to whirled peas. Asians are going to see China as the greatest threat to their own economic well being regardless of whatever a bunch of Eurosnobs says about US in the cafes of Berlin and Paris.

In the meantime, the US will be courted as a guarantor of security, if not of peace, but more likely both since China is in no way capable of challenging US no matter how much the PDF Chinese can blabber about DSI and the DF-21D. The US will be the better defender of the current interpretations of maritime traditions and laws than China can of hers. The SCS countries are seeing this in their water backyards, not events in landlocked deserts on the other side of the world.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Hey brother, do you know the ruling is "legally binding"?

Now we've just got to sit back.... and wait for someone to try and enforce it.

Don't even bother. Nobody is going to try and enforce it.

Oh, by the way. Your trousers are around your ankles. Nobody is going to try and lift them up.

 

[TMA]

Being one of the P5s China is morally bound to follow this UN mandated tribunal decision! Discarding this ruling will only undermine the authority of UN.. & will make it look like a joke.. while less fortunate countries gets bossed around & powerful ones get away!

Moral? In International law and relations?
UN is already a joke. Not China's fault for this.

 

[Nilgiri]

Oh, by the way. Your trousers are around your ankles. Nobody is going to try and lift them up.

Sirjee you made me spill my drink haha. Didn't know you had it in you

 

[phancong]

And you are wrong.

A lot of people, the kind that make more money than you, that have more military experience than the blustering PDF Chinese, and the kind that actually read which is more than we can say for most of the people on this forum, take this UN decision seriously.

While it maybe easier to travel on land, one can travel much farther on sea, this mean for countries that shares bodies of water, maritime traditions and laws greatly contributes to regional pecking order, read: balance of power. Either China, who had been trying to arbitrate individually and failed, renounces UNCLOS, or reinterpret those maritime traditions and laws to favor China and try again to argue those reinterpretations inside UNCLOS legal framework. Neither options are feasible.

It is not that China cannot withdraw from UNCLOS. Certainly she can, and I would dare to guess that there are many regionally who secretly wishes China would withdraw. But as I said earlier, withdrawal would leave China vulnerable to responses, from greater latitudes, that China cannot predict and anticipate.

It is not that China cannot reinterpret maritime traditions and laws. Certainly she can and China does have the muscle to back up those new interpretations. But this is not the 17th, 18th, or even 19th century where affairs of states in one part of the world have insignificant effects on the affairs of states in another part of the world. This is the 21st century where China insisted to have seats and influences on many tables, from economic to military, that created this inter-dependent world. Current maritime traditions and laws have created stable relationships among all sea faring countries. No one is going to blindly accept anyone's reinterpretations of those traditions and laws that obviously will put many at disadvantages. China's claim to the entirety of the SCS was that surprise attack, an Asian 'Pearl Harbor', if you will.

So when I said that neither options are feasible, it is to mean that in the long term, China will have PERSISTENT negative perceptions and consequences not just in Asia but worldwide. Am not talking public polls so do not bring up that silly poll that says the US is the greatest threat to whirled peas. Asians are going to see China as the greatest threat to their own economic well being regardless of whatever a bunch of Eurosnobs says about US in the cafes of Berlin and Paris.

In the meantime, the US will be courted as a guarantor of security, if not of peace, but more likely both since China is in no way capable of challenging US no matter how much the PDF Chinese can blabber about DSI and the DF-21D. The US will be the better defender of the current interpretations of maritime traditions and laws than China can of hers. The SCS countries are seeing this in their water backyards, not events in landlocked deserts on the other side of the world.

If China incapable to challenge the US navy, those reclamation island would have been destroyed by the US navy and US wouldn't have to wait for the powerless tribunal court to rule on the SCS dispute, US wouldn't urge all parties on the dispute to honor the court ruling especially US ask China not to militarized the newly build island to enforced China claim of the SCS, remember in the 90's China military still weak, US didn't hesitate to bomb China embassy in Eastern Europe becuase China embassy in the possession part of the US downed stealth bomber. Now China military power can pack a serious punch against US navy, US not hastily ready to bomb China newly build island.

 

[phancong]

For China national interest they will protect their claim to the SCS. The tootless tribunal court can't force China to forfeit her claim of the SCS not even the US can force China to vacate the newly build island without a major war.

 

[Joe Shearer]

The claim dates back to the 1930's at the latest.

Yes, that is an ancient claim. And it has been dealt with adequately, unlike many of your other claims.

For China national interest they will protect their claim to the SCS. The tootless tribunal court can't force China to forfeit her claim of the SCS not even the US can force China to vacate the newly build island without a major war.

Nobody gives a toot, Tootsie.

 

[phancong]

China stated they ready to fight for the SCS with no regard to the tribunal court decision.

 

[Nilgiri]

A cider AND a beer? Hmm. Is it just the UNCLOS verdict?

Haha....I don't make it a habit...but yes this and I have a bunch of cider left over from cottaging earlier + weddings I attended. Perfect weather and opportunity to enjoy it now. UNCLOS verdict is just a minor reason to be honest.

Have you ever tried Perry by the way (Pear Cider)?

 

[Pandora]

And you are wrong.

A lot of people, the kind that make more money than you, that have more military experience than the blustering PDF Chinese, and the kind that actually read which is more than we can say for most of the people on this forum, take this UN decision seriously.

While it maybe easier to travel on land, one can travel much farther on sea, this mean for countries that shares bodies of water, maritime traditions and laws greatly contributes to regional pecking order, read: balance of power. Either China, who had been trying to arbitrate individually and failed, renounces UNCLOS, or reinterpret those maritime traditions and laws to favor China and try again to argue those reinterpretations inside UNCLOS legal framework. Neither options are feasible.

It is not that China cannot withdraw from UNCLOS. Certainly she can, and I would dare to guess that there are many regionally who secretly wishes China would withdraw. But as I said earlier, withdrawal would leave China vulnerable to responses, from greater latitudes, that China cannot predict and anticipate.

It is not that China cannot reinterpret maritime traditions and laws. Certainly she can and China does have the muscle to back up those new interpretations. But this is not the 17th, 18th, or even 19th century where affairs of states in one part of the world have insignificant effects on the affairs of states in another part of the world. This is the 21st century where China insisted to have seats and influences on many tables, from economic to military, that created this inter-dependent world. Current maritime traditions and laws have created stable relationships among all sea faring countries. No one is going to blindly accept anyone's reinterpretations of those traditions and laws that obviously will put many at disadvantages. China's claim to the entirety of the SCS was that surprise attack, an Asian 'Pearl Harbor', if you will.

So when I said that neither options are feasible, it is to mean that in the long term, China will have PERSISTENT negative perceptions and consequences not just in Asia but worldwide. Am not talking public polls so do not bring up that silly poll that says the US is the greatest threat to whirled peas. Asians are going to see China as the greatest threat to their own economic well being regardless of whatever a bunch of Eurosnobs says about US in the cafes of Berlin and Paris.

In the meantime, the US will be courted as a guarantor of security, if not of peace, but more likely both since China is in no way capable of challenging US no matter how much the PDF Chinese can blabber about DSI and the DF-21D. The US will be the better defender of the current interpretations of maritime traditions and laws than China can of hers. The SCS countries are seeing this in their water backyards, not events in landlocked deserts on the other side of the world.

Here comes the protector of the innocent speech. You people probably lost count about how many Muslims you killed in order to maintain this facade of justice. The fact that you are trying so hard to make an issue out of non issue is hilarious. Rather than gloating about being champion of justice why dont you wait and see how much US can enforce. Under article 298 of UN forceful or one sided arbitration of any sea based dispute is not allowed so there is no basis for your argument in the first place. No offense but your argument was becoming incoherent with every passing comment so i guess i should stop this merry go round before your head explodes from anticipation of Chinese demise.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Why are you waving a Pakistani flag?

 

[Genesis]

It is not that China cannot withdraw from UNCLOS. Certainly she can, and I would dare to guess that there are many regionally who secretly wishes China would withdraw. But as I said earlier, withdrawal would leave China vulnerable to responses, from greater latitudes, that China cannot predict and anticipate.

What response, anything short of war and sanctions means less than nothing. China is a developing nation, we are communist in name, we are strong but not in the Western order like Japan. How much worse can this reputation get.

Isolating China is just a fantasy dreamed by random people. Even Iran and North Korea isn't totally isolated, but China can be? Certainly support may be too much to ask for, as the US is still the undisputed world power, but isolation seems unlikely to say the least.

Other than that, freedom of navigation, demonstrations, and what else is new? Even in 1996 America sailed her carrier to China's shores, so how is this any different. If anything, this is an improvement to 1996.

In terms of international organizations, like AIIB and all that, I'm quite sure feelings on China was set even then, so if there is to be any problems here, it would most than likely be based on performance than anything else.

It is not that China cannot reinterpret maritime traditions and laws. Certainly she can and China does have the muscle to back up those new interpretations. But this is not the 17th, 18th, or even 19th century where affairs of states in one part of the world have insignificant effects on the affairs of states in another part of the world. This is the 21st century where China insisted to have seats and influences on many tables, from economic to military, that created this inter-dependent world. Current maritime traditions and laws have created stable relationships among all sea faring countries. No one is going to blindly accept anyone's reinterpretations of those traditions and laws that obviously will put many at disadvantages. China's claim to the entirety of the SCS was that surprise attack, an Asian 'Pearl Harbor', if you will.

So when I said that neither options are feasible, it is to mean that in the long term, China will have PERSISTENT negative perceptions and consequences not just in Asia but worldwide. Am not talking public polls so do not bring up that silly poll that says the US is the greatest threat to whirled peas. Asians are going to see China as the greatest threat to their own economic well being regardless of whatever a bunch of Eurosnobs says about US in the cafes of Berlin and Paris.

In the meantime, the US will be courted as a guarantor of security, if not of peace, but more likely both since China is in no way capable of challenging US no matter how much the PDF Chinese can blabber about DSI and the DF-21D. The US will be the better defender of the current interpretations of maritime traditions and laws than China can of hers. The SCS countries are seeing this in their water backyards, not events in landlocked deserts on the other side of the world.

China and the US were ideological enemies in the 70s, yet we became allies due to interests. As much as people like to play up this issue, it's no where near the cold war level of hostilities, and that was ended in an instant.

Philippines, Vietnam, and who else can shout whatever they want, but in the end we are no playing in the same league. What's Vietnam's end game, compete to be a world power? Doubtful. A far more likely goal is regional supremacy, and for that you need a global backer. In this the US already has a favorite, at the very least, it wouldn't be possible to have two.

This won't happen now or a year from now, just like US China relations deteriorated over time, eventually, Chinese perception will change. But it won't change for the better if China is not seen as capable to hold our own internationally.


I'm not saying China will do either, both seems unimportant, but perception isn't as long lasting as some seem to think and actions? The reason China haven't gone to war over this is the same reason no one else will do anything concrete.

 

[Joe Shearer]

Oh I beg to differ.

Nobody, NOBODY doubts that. That is what adds to the humour of the situation.

 

[FullMetalJacket]

Get this. China's claim on SCS is based on some "ancient" map some fishmerman apparently "found". When the fisherman was questioned about the map by international news agency, he simply "threw" it away because it was old and broken. nice try, commies.