Sophistication of Indian tech is now sufficient to build a Rafale

[Abingdonboy]

The Rafale is vital- simple as that. There is no (VIABLE) alternative at this point considering by 2022 the IAF (without the MMRCA) would be facing something like a 7-10 SQD shortfall and this is the deadline we all need to keep in mind when looking at this entity issue.

- More MKIs? The MKI is absurdly expensive to fly and maintain and is the top end of the IAF's combat doctrine, it needs to be complimented by smaller, lighter and more economical fighters. Not to mention the timescales for delivery, is HAL going to ramp up production? Unlikely as they want/need to shift their MKI production lines to the FGFA by the end of this decade.

-LCAs as an alternative? The LCA is in no way as capable as the Rafale so inherently the IAF would be disadvantaged in terms of its overall combat capabilities but let's just take this as read. The main issue here is the timescales one is looking at for induction, the LCA Mk.1 is still not at FOC standard yet and will only have 1 SQD in service by 2016, 2 by 2017 and then the Mk.2 has to take over and (at best) one can hope for 1 SQD of LCA Mk.2s by 2021-2 as the Mk.2 is the LCA the IAF now wants and it is unwilling to induct more than 2 SQDs of Mk.1s. 3-4 SQDs (at best) of LCAs (Mk.1 and 2) by 2022 isn't going to take much out of the shortfall the IAF WILL be facing in SQD strength. By 2022 there should be an additional 4-5 SQDs of MMRCA in service that will dramatically soften the blow to the IAF when those MiG-21s and 27s are all gone by 2019-20.

-The reintroduction of a relegated bidder (EFT, Gripen, F/A-18 E/F)? This is the most remote scenario despite what the journos out there on their payroll would like to spin. Firstly the only viable bidder for this could be the EFT as it was the only a/c other than the Rafale found to meet the technical criteria of the IAF's exhaustive requirements. Looking purely at the EFT, if the Rafale is criticised for its high costs and it is the L1 entrant then the L2 bidder is going to be more expensive. Then there is the fact the Rafale is the superior machine and lastly, and most importantly, there is the issue that even if talks were started today it would take 2-3 years to get to the same point (that the MoD is with Dassualt) in terms of deal progression so first inductions would only begin in 2019/20 and by that time the window of opportunity would be shut and the shortfall in the IAF's SQD very much critical.

Some may say that my analysis is simple focusing on the numbers game but this is the point- unless you, the IAF, the GoI or India can stomach a 7-10 (at best) SQD shortfall in the MINIMUM sanctioned strength of the IAF by 2022 then the MMRCA is a MUST no two ways about it anymore- the situation is such that the IAF has got itself into such a position but that is another discussion.

This is talking purely from a AF capability perspective, the MMRCA let's not forget was about more than just fighters. It was/is also about the industrial benefits and scrapping the Rafale for any of the above alternatives would be a major set back for India's aviation industry.

It is for these reasons the Rafale WILL be ordered by the end of 2014 no doubt in my mind.

 

[acetophenol]

The Rafale is vital- simple as that. There is no (VIABLE) alternative at this point considering by 2022 the IAF (without the MMRCA) would be facing something like a 7-10 SQD shortfall and this is the deadline we all need to keep in mind when looking at this entity issue.

- More MKIs? The MKI is absurdly expensive to fly and maintain and is the top end of the IAF's combat doctrine, it needs to be complimented by smaller, lighter and more economical fighters. Not to mention the timescales for delivery, is HAL going to ramp up production? Unlikely as they want/need to shift their MKI production lines to the FGFA by the end of this decade.

-LCAs as an alternative? The LCA is in no way as capable as the Rafale so inherently the IAF would be disadvantaged in terms of its overall combat capabilities but let's just take this as read. The main issue here is the timescales one is looking at for induction, the LCA Mk.1 is still not at FOC standard yet and will only have 1 SQD in service by 2016, 2 by 2017 and then the Mk.2 has to take over and (at best) one can hope for 1 SQD of LCA Mk.2s by 2021-2 as the Mk.2 is the LCA the IAF now wants and it is unwilling to induct more than 2 SQDs of Mk.1s. 3-4 SQDs (at best) of LCAs (Mk.1 and 2) by 2022 isn't going to take much out of the shortfall the IAF WILL be facing in SQD strength. By 2022 there should be an additional 4-5 SQDs of MMRCA in service that will dramatically soften the blow to the IAF when those MiG-21s and 27s are all gone by 2019-20.

-The reintroduction of a relegated bidder (EFT, Gripen, F/A-18 E/F)? This is the most remote scenario despite what the journos out there on their payroll would like to spin. Firstly the only viable bidder for this could be the EFT as it was the only a/c other than the Rafale found to meet the technical criteria of the IAF's exhaustive requirements. Looking purely at the EFT, if the Rafale is criticised for its high costs and it is the L1 entrant then the L2 bidder is going to be more expensive. Then there is the fact the Rafale is the superior machine and lastly, and most importantly, there is the issue that even if talks were started today it would take 2-3 years to get to the same point (that the MoD is with Dassualt) in terms of deal progression so first inductions would only begin in 2019/20 and by that time the window of opportunity would be shut and the shortfall in the IAF's SQD very much critical.

Some may say that my analysis is simple focusing on the numbers game but this is the point- unless you, the IAF, the GoI or India can stomach a 7-10 (at best) SQD shortfall in the MINIMUM sanctioned strength of the IAF by 2022 then the MMRCA is a MUST no two ways about it anymore- the situation is such that the IAF has got itself into such a position but that is another discussion.

This is talking purely from a AF capability perspective, the MMRCA let's not forget was about more than just fighters. It was/is also about the industrial benefits and scrapping the Rafale for any of the above alternatives would be a major set back for India's aviation industry.

It is for these reasons the Rafale WILL be ordered by the end of 2014 no doubt in my mind.

Not to mention the tampered international relations and media frenzy if Rafale is scrapped. Rafale will boost the capabilities of our aviation industry,but whats more important is that we must utilize it to the maximum without creating developmental gaps. The facilities and experiences gained through Rafale must be made used for our other projects,like AMCA. Rafale is our chance to catch up,we must make sure we don't lag behind.

 

[sathya]

If we are going in for rafale, do it already .. Delaying will only make it less valuable
Or delay it if only we getting F3R variant..

If we going in for F3+ variant at the time of F3R production, we still have to upgrade it later..

 

[janon]

If a USA company doing r&d work situated in bangalore with Indian workforce can write and sell program for sukhoi mki then its not as simple as that ..we seriously lag in management of our resources

Writing software code is one thing, making a cutting edge 4.5 gen fighter is quite another. I would be extremely happy if we can get an LCA mk2 into operational service five years from now - my guess is that we cannot. That is where we stand, so let us not have delusions of grandeur.

Unlike IT, in many other engineering disciplines, we cannot simply get to XYZ from ABC without going through the intermediate stages. Rafale is the crown jewel of the European aviation industry, with nearly a century of experience in the same. It is the best that Europe can do as of today. This after they have built mirages and jaguars and harriers and tornados and many, many other aircrafts before, over the course of a century. There is no way that India can match Europe, when our only experience is in building the LCA, and we started just 20 years back, and have worked on just one aircraft, which we haven't yet started manufacturing. Sorry, there are no shortcuts in many disciplines.

The fact that we cannot make a Rafale today is not because of any management issues that can be solved by a few MBA grads - it is because we lack the expertise and knowhow and accumulated experience. No number of management professionals can compensate our lack of technical knowledge.

 

[Joe Shearer]

50% back is huge exaggeration bhai. HuuuuuuugeA!.

It's probably going to land up around 33 to 35%.

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Our HALis still cant handle this project.we dont have any industry.

Bingo. Gotcha there We need to improve a lot. Pronto. We need to believe that we are capable. The Mangalyaan did not happen in a month or an year. It took decades for us to reach there. But the same decades we have spent in Aerospace has given us.....

 

[janon]

There's still a lot of work needed, LCA was a good aircraft with a fair bit of potential, the imports, delays and mismanagement are killing it in my opinion, and one too many foreign components. As a Pakistani I can honestly say, a capable LCA fielded in numbers would be a more worrisome development than imports of Rafale or other foreign aircraft.

That's true, but since Tejas is our first program after decades, the IAF could not be entirely sure of how succesful it would turn out to be. They could not place all their eggs in that basket, when they were faced with the imminent retirement of some 400+ aircrafts, and MKI was the only cutting edge fighter in their arsenal. But what turned the whole thing into a farce was that buying a few Rafales took as much time as putting the LCA into production - and because of this, now once again questions are being raised on the need for Rafale.

BTW, if the LCA becomes succesful and the IAF likes it, then there is still scope for producing it in numbers, with or without the Rafale. The number of fighters we need to replace is so damn huge.

 

[sathya]

Writing software code is one thing, making a cutting edge 4.5 gen fighter is quite another. I would be extremely happy if we can get an LCA mk2 into operational service five years from now - my guess is that we cannot. That is where we stand, so let us not have delusions of grandeur.

Unlike IT, in many other engineering disciplines, we cannot simply get to XYZ from ABC without going through the intermediate stages. Rafale is the crown jewel of the European aviation industry, with nearly a century of experience in the same. It is the best that Europe can do as of today. This after they have built mirages and jaguars and harriers and tornados and many, many other aircrafts before, over the course of a century. There is no way that India can match Europe, when our only experience is in building the LCA, and we started just 20 years back, and have worked on just one aircraft, which we haven't yet started manufacturing. Sorry, there are no shortcuts in many disciplines.

The fact that we cannot make a Rafale today is not because of any management issues that can be solved by a few MBA grads - it is because we lack the expertise and knowhow and accumulated experience. No number of management professionals can compensate our lack of technical knowledge.

True even in cars , our indian product does not have the quality or refinement of European ones.

We are just coming to the stage , performance is still not up to their level

Why would tata acquire jaguar, even when it had its own car .?
Same can be said with rafale ..

Question is what the bill of rafale , and does our pocket support it..

 

[SrNair]

Bingo. Gotcha there We need to improve a lot. Pronto. We need to believe that we are capable. The Mangalyaan did not happen in a month or an year. It took decades for us to reach there. But the same decades we have spent in Aerospace has given us.....

But we completed that Mangalyaan with 450 crores.
Cost of one Rafale is nearly 1000 crore.only one.
Then what would be the expense of design such an aircraft and setting up such an industry.Entire budget for ISRO from 1980 to 2014 wouldnt be enough for that.
Fact is Aviation industry is the most complex industry in the world almost equal to the nuclear technology.
Space and Nuclear field are just developing of one system at a time without any national security.
But developing a cutting edge fighter tech like Rafale ,honestly in simple words our industry is not mature for that.
We can develop such a fighter if we spend trillions in our industry means private industry from now but outcome would be only at around 2030.But then world will be in fifth gen.
But we might be in successful in reducing our squadrons levels at that time.And after all we dont have that much money.Our success in deal is the maximum extraction of european tech from it.And this deal will help to create o much needed industry that can take projects like AMCA.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Not to mention the tampered international relations and media frenzy if Rafale is scrapped. Rafale will boost the capabilities of our aviation industry,but whats more important is that we must utilize it to the maximum without creating developmental gaps. The facilities and experiences gained through Rafale must be made used for our other projects,like AMCA. Rafale is our chance to catch up,we must make sure we don't lag behind.

If you are making maruti.

Then you go buy 5 BMWs.

This will not help maruti. It will remain basic basic basic car, never to become BMW ever.

 

[Skull and Bones]

Bingo. Gotcha there We need to improve a lot. Pronto. We need to believe that we are capable. The Mangalyaan did not happen in a month or an year. It took decades for us to reach there. But the same decades we have spent in Aerospace has given us.....

Last time i talked about improving the research and development environment in the nation compared to that of west, they termed me as anti national.

If you are making maruti.

Then you go buy 5 BMWs.

This will not help maruti. It will remain basic basic basic car, never to become BMW ever.

To become a BMW, your factories needs to be bombed by Allied forces, and overnight you'll have to convert your car manufacturing hub into an aircraft manufacturing hub.

That is why there is no second BMW in the industry.

 

[Trawllu]

Sirji we appreciate your concern.
But we know our limitations ,once our leaders try to establish a aerospace industry by developing HF marut.But our own corrupt bureacrats blocked its further development.

But LCA cant come even nearer to Rafale in capabilities.
IAF need midclass fighters having twin engine .If we try for
AFAIK this MMRCA have 50% offset. Means half of that amount will reinvested in our industry.

LCA & Rafale are not comparable - you are right

IAF needs midclass fighters having twin engines - you are wrong the MMRCA requirements and tenders looked for single engine plane only - IAF wanted Mirage 2000 in 2001 -

the rafale is redundant - it can be replaced by combinaiton of Su 30 + LCA

the Rafale deal was estimated at less than 10 billion in 20010 with 50% offsets

now it is estimated at more than 22Billion with 50% offset - are we really getting anything in offset ?
all the 50% offsets are accounted for price escalation - where is the real benefit ?

But LCA capabalities are much limited.Not good in NE theatre .But we will get necessary advanced tech from this deal.
As an Indian ,perhaps this deal would be the last deal of importing.In coming years we will either develop our fighter or JV .

Sir can you elaborate how LCA is capable enough in NE theatre ?

 

[FaujHistorian]

Last time i talked about improving the research and development environment in the nation compared to that of west, they termed me as anti national.



To become a BMW, your factories needs to be bombed by Allied forces, and overnight you'll have to convert your car manufacturing hub into an aircraft manufacturing hub.

That is why there is no second BMW in the industry.

I am sure you are joking brother.

if you are a race car history fanatic like me, you would know that German auto industry was producing top notch cars before WW-2.

There used to be yearly racing and the winning car drivers were no less than gods. Audi (Auto union), and Benz. (BMW was not on Grand Prix circuit, I think).

BMW was a huge operation making cars, motorcycles and airplanes.

However after WW-2, they had to stop all that and start making pots and pans.

But then you can't keep a hard working German down for too long.

So they restarted making cars and motorcycles. (no planes though. They were forbidden to do so by Unkil Sam).

peace to you bro

 

[SarthakGanguly]

Last time i talked about improving the research and development environment in the nation compared to that of west, they termed me as anti national.

The way they buggers fkd things up is more anti national. I mean a Marut built with German Kurt Tank's help and then a limping LCA - that's all we have to show for in this field? Not enough. Just not good enough.

If any parents have kids who are interested in aerospace, I will urge them to cultivate that interest and not push them into Computer Science or medical fields.

But we completed that Mangalyaan with 450 crores.
Cost of one Rafale is nearly 1000 crore.only one.
Then what would be the expense of design such an aircraft and setting up such an industry.Entire budget for ISRO from 1980 to 2014 wouldnt be enough for that.
Fact is Aviation industry is the most complex industry in the world almost equal to the nuclear technology.
Space and Nuclear field are just developing of one system at a time without any national security.
But developing a cutting edge fighter tech like Rafale ,honestly in simple words our industry is not mature for that.
We can develop such a fighter if we spend trillions in our industry means private industry from now but outcome would be only at around 2030.But then world will be in fifth gen.
But we might be in successful in reducing our squadrons levels at that time.And after all we dont have that much money.Our success in deal is the maximum extraction of european tech from it.And this deal will help to create o much needed industry that can take projects like AMCA.

I agree with all of your points. But we should learn a thing or two from China (how to steal tech even) and make our thing. Trust you me, in times of war, the Raphales or even Sukhois will be good for a month only. After that spare parts will ground the fleet (after intense action). Foreign tech should augment our strength, not be the mainstay of a respectable military power.

 

[pursuit of happiness]

I see so many Indian posters who are fan boys of Dassault Rafale.

This shows they have no confidence in their own engineers and sientists. Which is really sad to see.

Aerospace industry and capacity of India is now among the best.

So do not waste money on buying 100s of Dassault Rafales. By a squadran or two.

Save the hard earned billions and build your own.

Sure it may take a bit of time, but it will be yours.


And above all, it will give high tech jobs to 1000s of Indians instead of exporting them to EU>

--
Thanks ...
yes . our industry .. or govt.. our aerospace is secodnary scool
if you compare with USA/Russia/ France who have double doctorate and have own university of above..
we learning with LCA .. we are proud to fail now..
those who fail .. its shown theya re working.. and need to work more..
“I have not failed. I've just found 10,000 ways that won't work.”
― Thomas A. Edison
now world respect the guy who failed before..
--
we are failure (to keep in simple.. LCA on ground ) but sure tommrrow word will respect us .. bases on yesterdyas ha work
--
“The three great essentials to achieve anything worthwhile are, first, hard work; second, stick-to-itiveness; third, common sense.”
― Thomas A. Edison
--
high tech job..
high tech job comes from high tech companies ... intel, mircosoft, google, ibm , boing, Lockheed, NASA
high tech people come fomr high end University ,, hardward, yale , MIT. standford , carnegie mellon
---
max india have is IIT in techinals .. and IIIM in managet
stil most IITs guys used to be IIM grad and become finance , marketing guy sometime even writer
( i am fine with it)
so cutting age research was few people prerogative..
now since decade or so ... govt pusing reasech ,, changng univeristy to go beyong bread and butter
invingting high end companies for R and D and yeiled few result too .. exa. banglore .. GE Rand D
--
So ideal is not always reality..
so reality is we cant beulid same quality of RAFael NOW so need to import ..

There's still a lot of work needed, LCA was a good aircraft with a fair bit of potential, the imports, delays and mismanagement are killing it in my opinion, and one too many foreign components. As a Pakistani I can honestly say, a capable LCA fielded in numbers would be a more worrisome development than imports of Rafale or other foreign aircraft.

--
suppose in war waht you woudl pref to face your F16 , JF
a Squdren of LCA .. why
a Sq of Rafael .. why