Sino-Pakistan Relations - Really Not Good as Shown

[Chinese-Dragon]

Do you really think Pakistan has major say in Islamic nations? The nation that has strong grip on world issues are those with oil like KSA and Iran. They are the major forces of Islam along with Pakistan.

Yes, Pakistan/Iran/Saudi/Turkey are arguably the most influential nations in the Islamic world.

Which is why we are trying to increase our relations with all of them. We have succeeded very well with both Pakistan and Iran, we also did well with Saudi, and we did alright with Turkey.

In fact we are currently the biggest oil customer for both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

 

[IND151]

The reason behind Sino pak friendship is several benefits this relationship offers and the common enemy both have>India

Due to Pak 60 to 70% of Indian troops remain bogged down on Western border, thus India is not able to completely concentrate on eastern border

for this is the reason, Beijing has helped Pak as much as possible

Sino Pak Nexus successfully delayed India's rise till early 1990s

however, very good economic growth in 1990s and good growth for last 12 years, along with access to critical tech, Development of advanced,Robust Missile Arsenal and massive modernization of armed forces has enabled India to emerge as Regional Military and Economic Superpower (wrt South Asia)

but there are still advantages Pak can offer like,access to Arebian sea,access to Central asia, a moderate size market for Chinese products

it seems, that this relationship will be affected by situation in post 2014 Afghanistan, up to a certain extent and growing relationship between US and India

 

[K-Xeroid]

If you watch his videos, most of the time he is proved correct. Remember the one he said about opening the supply lines. He was dead-on right.

And to other members, don't just say over and over again that Pakistan-China friendship is this and that (do it on another thread), we know this for a long time and we do know how much they help you, point of discussion is why haven't they help you enough even when they could.

If you watch his videos properly then you should know that he's an analyst not a predictor and most of analysts in Pakistan predicted that Pakistan will resume NATO supplies, but when and on wat terms its going to be opened ? No one said anything perfect on it even Sethi Sahab didn't gave any perfect analysis on that. So wat made him extra exceptional as compare to others? you guys better need to leave your habit of visionalizing selective analysis. and plz show me any of his video where He said anything against U.S . He's famous cuz of his day\night support for U.S.

As far as Sino-Pak relations are concerned then its now heading towards public to public ties. There is Nothing about Aid, its about our uncountable interests which will keep us closer to each other in current situation and in future as well. This relation is providing an equilbirium to whole world and many other stake holder's from different regions are eager in joining this allaince.

 

[KRAIT]

Buddy there is a pretty big difference between being "prepared" (which every country should do).... and openly declaring another nation as your number 1 enemy.

Even America and Russia don't do that to each other.

And check my previous posts, I have always supported India's right to increase their defences on their side of the border.

Sir we openly declare you brothers before 1962, then there was war. Then around 13 years ago a defense minister made a comment and you took it as a gospel. We percieve Chinese threat as we want to increase our influence in IOR region where China is making subs and ACCS which in future will be major concern if Bangladesh and Srilanka allows you to use their ports for your subs and ships. I think you got my point. We are trying to avoid something which we might regret in future if we don't do it today. You claim SCS are your back water while India consider IOR due to its location.

After USSR disintegration, did US stop looking Russia as threat. Nope. Russians are still capable of giving massive blow to US. They don't declare themselves enemies as it is a known fact for decades. Remember Veitnam and Afghanistan. You don't have to declare someone enemy if you are already indulged in destabilizing them. Its common sense to get to the conclusion.

I have no problem with your preparation but isn't it obvious for us to see as a threat. What if this preparation used as an aggression against India after few years or decades? A country has to be prepared when its neighbor has military strength like yours. Pakistan always considered India as an existential threat due to our military edge over them. Even if they don't declare us enemy anymore, wouldn't they call our SSBNs, Stealth Aircrafts and Frigates, ACCs, BMD, Spy satellites as reasons of concern to their national security.

Yes, Pakistan/Iran/Saudi/Turkey are arguably the most influential nations in the Islamic world.

Which is why we are trying to increase our relations with all of them. We have succeeded very well with both Pakistan and Iran, we also did well with Saudi, and we did alright with Turkey.

In fact we are currently the biggest oil customer for both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Exactly. Do you think now you need Pakistan anymore for maintaining these relations keep aside the logistics Pakistan can provide.

tabhe tu rang asa hey ..... hindustan ja kar dekho bollywood pe tu anay waan makeup mara huta hey

Mate you are considered to be rational poster on this forum atleast by me. Can you avoid this and come back to topic and present your views. Atleast I don't expect this from you. Hope you can avoid such posts no matter how much any Indian or Pakistani entice you.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

Sir we openly declare you brothers before 1962, then there was war. Then around 13 years ago a defense minister made a comment and you took it as a gospel.

That's because Nehru refused to exchange recognition of Aksai Chin for recognition of Arunachal Pradesh, called us "bhais" and then hosted our largest separatist group in 1959, then carried out the Forward Policy against us.

The only reason we didn't respond sooner, was because we were in the middle of the worst famine in our history (Great leap forward), and at that point we were on the verge of collapse due to starvation and unrest.

We percieve Chinese threat as we want to increase our influence in IOR region where China is making subs and ACCS which in future will be major concern if Bangladesh and Srilanka allows you to use their ports for your subs and ships. I think you got my point. We are trying to avoid something which we might regret in future if we don't do it today. You claim SCS are your back water while India consider IOR due to its location.

When you industrialize and consume the same amount of electricity per capita as we do, you'll understand the desperate need to secure resource lanes in order to provide fuel to an industrialized country of over 1 billion.

We want to secure our resource lanes by securing ports in the IOR, that is a thousand times more important than "attacking India" for whatever reason.

 

[airmarshal]

Good for you Indian dreamers. Dream on. Pakistan does not need a financier as the article claims. Many points in the article are factually wrong.

 

[KRAIT]

Exactly!! Once NATO withdraws from Afghanistan, all hells going to be let lose and these same Talibunnies will rejoice over the victory, civil war will erupt in Afghanistan, and then rogue groups will turn their attention else where.

This is just history repeating itself, if people don't believe me then all they have to do is look back at how after the Soviets were defeated in Afghanistan and completely withdrew, the same people who fought them in Afghanistan relocated to Chechnya and a whole new bloody war erupted there. And just like in Chechnya the Chechens despised the Russians, Xinjiang's locals despise the Hans whom they view as intruders forcing their way of life on the Turkic minority and turning the locals into minorities in their own land.

Pakistan has no control over these groups, one day Pakistan Army calls them the "good Taliban" or "Mujahideen" but the next day when they turn their guns on their owners they become "bad Taliban", "RAW agents", "CIA agents", "Mossad agents", and strange tales start forming out of thin air how the evil "indian agents" are uncircumcised and alcohol bottles were discovered in their hideouts, etc.

And i used to believe in that BS until recently i woke up and realized they are playing us all for fools, but for how long? You play with fire and it will eventually burn you, unfortunately ISI and co still haven't learned that lesson as we can see they have a love affair with Haqani and friends.

Good replies mate. Logical and sound one. You have covered most of the doubts people have and presented a balanced picture on how these groups can be deadly to other nations too. You are right about Gwadar and other problems in Pakistan.

China's hesitance regarding investment or other matters in Pakistan is correct too. I do admit the posters on PDF don't represent entire Pakistan, I just wanted let you know the posters we have to deal us where every bad incident is traced back to India just as Indians do in case of ISI. It ruins good discussion.

 

[KRAIT]

That's because Nehru refused to exchange recognition of Aksai Chin for recognition of Arunachal Pradesh, called us "bhais" and then hosted our largest separatist group in 1959, then carried out the Forward Policy against us.

The only reason we didn't respond sooner, was because we were in the middle of the worst famine in our history (Great leap forward), and at that point we were on the verge of collapse due to starvation and unrest.



When you industrialize and consume the same amount of electricity per capita as we do, you'll understand the desperate need to secure resource lanes in order to provide fuel to an industrialized country of over 1 billion.

We want to secure our resource lanes by securing ports in the IOR, that is a thousand times more important than "attacking India" for whatever reason.

Exactly mate, I agree with you. You call Tibetan development and sea lanes protection as a concern and prepardness so does we perceive as challenge to our influence in this region. Both India and China has their worries and they are correct for them. Both are doing what's best for their interest and security.

I also admit why any Indians consider China as an enemy, its because this region especially ours, emotions are the driving force. If China is not projected as an enemy, our populace won't care about defense regarding China if we call China that they are just concern for our security. The word enemy makes people to look at the things carefully otherwise they don't care what's happening around us. A sad but real situation. Same is with Pakistan, if a govt. on both sides tries to improve relations, they don't get much needed support and the peace process gets interrupted now and then.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China in fact already consumes more electricity than the USA does, and we are not even a developed country yet.

List of countries by electricity consumption - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

When India finally decides to go for mass industrialization, you'll see how much energy you consume, and you'll understand how desperate we are to secure our energy lanes in the IOR.

 

[ajtr]

@ajtr

Without going into any jingoistic paroxysms, let me explain what seems to be an 'unusual phenomenon'.

It has a great deal to with the essential Chinese psyche. The Chinese mind is most comfortable in an orderly world (even one that is perceived to be so). Even if that orderly world is one that is created by decree. Consequently it abhors what is (or can be) considered to be plainly disorderly (or indisciplined). Most of the actions (or misadventures) that Pakistan has indulged in from time to time can plainly be described as such. That has perpetually confused, baffled and bemused the Chinese. Hence they have been loath to buy into these activities and extend 'blank checks' so to speak. Even in the economic travails that have hit Pakistan, the Chinese have been extremely circumspect to extend unconditional favors or aid of any kind.

Believe you me, the Chinese are supreme realists. Where other peoples interests are concerned, they are reticent when it comes to 'walking the talk'. Even more so when they perceive the other person (ally, friend or whatever) to be reckless or indisciplined in any manner.

They will never throw in 'good money after bad'.

The Americans are way different from that. But politics does make for strange bed-fellows!

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...argil-but-could-get-worse-50.html#post3248186

 

[KRAIT]

Yaar humari dosti jasai bi hoy apki kyun jaal ti hain?

True story.

Are bore ho gaye ye tumhari dosti dosti sunte hue, koi acha argument nahin dhund paate to dosti pe aa jaate ho. Are kisne kaha ki tumhari dosti achi nahi hai. Sab jaante hain, par poori baat to samjho. Fir reply karo. Hamari kyun jalegi, ulta hamare luye to acha hai, kam se kam hamare politician is dosti ki wajah se thoda baht kaam to karte hain defense ke liye.

Its a blessing in Disguise for India.

 

[ajtr]

China betrayed Pakistan during Kargil war watch from 4:16

 

[Henry]

Yes, Pakistan/Iran/Saudi/Turkey are arguably the most influential nations in the Islamic world.

Only Saudi - Rest are Converts and will always remain below the Original Muslims -The Arabs!

Which is why we are trying to increase our relations with all of them. We have succeeded very well with both Pakistan and Iran, we also did well with Saudi, and we did alright with Turkey.

That is they way the Oil Politik is Played in the World. All the Muslim Countries who happen to Supply Oil have to be made Slaves that's What the Big Powers have been doing since 1940s.

In fact we are currently the biggest oil customer for both Iran and Saudi Arabia.

US itself has become One of the Largest Oil Producers. They have invested in Shale Gas and are on the path towards Self Sufficiency. Russia is Sufficient. Only India-China-Japan are the Hungry Buds.

 

[ajtr]

cross-opsting

@Joe shearer and @Capt.Popeye

I've one more theory do think about it.I'll rather call it my CT and let me know what you both think.

There is no denying that china did help pakistan in providing both conventional weaponry and strategic ones.But after 9/11 whatever fears west(USA+Europe) has about Pakistani loose nukes in the hands of terror groups, same fears does china has with china on many occassions complaining about Xinjiang terror groups getting trained in pakistan.And China unlike USA or Europe unfortunately shares land borders with pakistan in its resistive province of xinjiang as india does in kashmir.N

Now the same loose nuke which west fear is it possible is making china fear that loose nuke too?If so pakistani missiles which can fly to india or to destroy israel usa targets in gulf can also fly to to china mainland. or the nukes can be smmuhggeled in by some tanzeems.
Isnt it possible like usa china too is keeping watch on pakistani nukes with china having its keys to make sure that it dont become a target.What i want to say is Pakistan is like turkey having usa nukes on its soil with keys always being with usa since 1960s.Same is with pakistan having the nukes but its keys with china or usa.

In other words pakistan is virtually without any nukes.So what fear india has from pakistani nuke---i say none.only thing is how india strike balance with china and usa so that they both wont get tempted to provide keys to the PA.ie india should declare nuclear sam son on any country that hurts indian interests.


OFcourse above all is my CT and deductions from CT.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...gil-but-could-get-worse-50.html#ixzz22CCybXt7

Fairly off..
While the Chinese have concerns over Xinjang , their concerns are limited to terrorist activities...
and unlike the western and eastern borders where there is a certain "lax" in curtailing the training camps, the Pakistani state has been extremely quick to act against any elements operating that threaten China. Silently and rather brutally infact, so the Chinese are assured of their security concerns with us.
The Chinese are also kept aware of our Nuclear weapons security and have never expressed any fear from any official or unofficial channels except perhaps the odd Hong Kong "intellectual".
So trust me when I say that Pakistans Nukes have little to do with Chinese control or keys or whatever. If there is anything that will prevent their firing , it will be on a leadership level and not on the ground.
Leadership that can be convinced to stand down against a nuclear attack, or hold back on neutralization operations against its nukes.
But as it stands right now, if needed.. orders can be given this second.. and nukes will fly regardless of the US or China.

Now this does not mean that there will be no more attacks in the Xinjiang reigion, since just as Pakistan has "good terrorists and bad terrorists".. so does the US,India and others.
Afghanistan is still a base for such operations against China.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...argil-but-could-get-worse-50.html#post3248591

Some very interesting view there. So let me make a quick response to that.

Your postulation is not incorrect. In fact that it is a major determinant in the Chinese Foreign Policy vis-a-vis Pakistan. Deep down inside, China has some major concerns wrt the state of affairs in Pakistan. Since Pakistan increasingly is throwing up a picture of an 'uncontrolled chain reaction'. There are far too many loose cannons in present-day Pakistan, for anybody's comfort even for a friend's peace of mind. China is not the only such identity, even KSA is a case in point.

Just to take your hypothesis further, while China is a supporter of the Deep State (Mily. Estt.) in Pakistan; that support is not unlimited.
Why?
Because China is clearly cognisant of the fact that the Deep State is riddled with 'Zia's Children' i.e. Men who will allow their Fundamentalism to overcome their Professionalism. Since the Chinese are convinced (certainly with justification) that the Political Estt. in Pakistan (for many reasons, not all of its own doing) is simply incapable of controlling things (esp the Strategic Weapon stockpile) it is now confonted with the situation (shall I say mortification) that the Caretakers (or Khaki Chowkidars, to borrow a term from our friend VCheng) may themselves be liable to be subverted/suborned. That is certainly no cause for comfort. Even for any friend! Especially if that friend happens to be a neighbor.

Which is why I had said in an earlier post (maybe six months ago) in response to Santro/Oscar (who I respect greatly) that "Pakistan's Nukes are both a boon and a bane to Pakistan itself". I stand by that opinion even now.

About your concluding paras, while I consider that to be in the realm of hypothesis: there is merit in that also!
Why do you think that Kargil episode played out the way that it did?
As I said in an earlier post on this thread: that Kargil punched a huge hole in the theory of "Nuclear Deterrence".
Now you may be able to guess why. As well as why India was able to raise the stakes during that episode and call its opponent's bluff. Just as India demonstrated its ability to respond in an "asymetric warfare" but using means vastly different from what anybody (including the opponent) expected. that is what worked really.

So again reverting back to the thrust of my argument to explain why the Chinese have been doing what they have. Its all about balance and order. Yin and Yang!

That cute little black and white graphic that we are used to seeing is very important.

http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...argil-but-could-get-worse-51.html#post3248662

 

[ajtr]

Oscar,
PA did act on ETIM group and other situations like lal masjid operation or on the assassination of Chineses Engineers involved in projects with pakistan on Chinese govt.prodding.As you classify good and bad terrorists in above posts I wonder how you separate them:i guess XinJiang group(ETIM)as bad terrorists + one those attack chinese citizens and interests on pakistani soil as bad terrorists) but who are the good ones.Secondly there are so many loosely operating tanzeems overlapping each others' interest and drawing cadre from both bad and good ones how its possible to keep tab on all of them.

From geopolitics and realpolitic let me jump on to philosophical plane.
Iqbal long back had drawn the map of the Pan-Islamic World,to whom Pakistan owns him as its national poet and visionary of its existence — categorically included Kashgar when he says in one of his famous couplets:

“Aik ho Muslim haram ki pasbani ke liye,
Neel ke sahil say le ke taba Khak-e-Kashgar.”

(Become one for guarding of Muslim sacredness.
From the banks of the Nile up to the soil of Kashgar.)

Now my question is that PA and Pak establishment may have its own foreign /security policy wrt to Xinjiang which is opposite to Iqbal's vision but then majority of pak awam or majority in PA agrees with this opposition to the PA views wrt kashgar. If yes.hoDoesnt it like saying that we are dumping Iqbal's ideology and its just not practical to follow it.If No then how much stiff resistance you expect from the people.
This is where my Part of CT on nukes kicks in wrt to chinese of pakistani nuke is same as that of western fear.

As for India best way is to just keep converting its fear of pakistani nukes as the fear of everyone.India did tested this wrt to terror targeted at india and the game theory does works in favour of india as one saw in last decade.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...gil-but-could-get-worse-51.html#ixzz22Dwrerhr

With regards to the first highlighted part..
This overlapping is what is currently causing headaches for the establishment, since these groups are behaving like Hydras.. and did not come with the on/off button or even a reliable leach as their creators thought they would.


Moreover,neither the establishment or the People of Pakistan in general take any ideology at face value.. they take what suits them. If it suits them to concentrate on "killing infidels".. they'll take it.. or if the Treaty of Hudaybiya suits them.. they'll take it.
Not understanding their historical interpretation and significance.. since that is irrelevant.. only the abstracts use for personal gain is important.

I do get that since Zia's days PA ideology has completely changed and with the Zia's generation ideologically motivated generals start replacing the officers corp thats where the real fear of west and china kicks in wrt to nukes and terror.Till India was only the punching bag it was all fine with everyone.but as one can se today that india's problem of 1990s has become the world problem today.As world got more threatened india is getting safe as compared to 1980-90s.Same is happening with nukes.Ie the solution to india's fear is that to divert that fear west and everyone else.

And as for chinese what they are that the one who control the strategic weapon in pakistan are getting more ideologically motivated themselves.

Upto kargil war all fits in well and answers the chinese help to india.

But 1971 is still a mystery that even so much prodding by nixon admin chinese never attacked from north.

If it were nukes and terrorists that made china help india in kargil what was the chinese fear in 1971 that stopped it helping pakistan to reduce pressure from north.

As i see last 30-40 yrs of chinese behaviour i do think that 2 front war is just IA's boogeyman just to put GOI in pressure to get more funds for defence.....correct me if i'm wrong here.

Source: http://www.defence.pk/forums/strate...gil-but-could-get-worse-52.html#ixzz22DxiYLoM

First of all: WRT the underlined part, not really! Indian Army's preparations and expenditure in the North has been negligible to the extent that it did not enhance incremetally the IA's capability there. It was just sufficient to maintain status quo.

In recent years (post the Deng period) there is a resurgent PLA in China that is jockeying for power (including political power). So IA's moves there are clearly reactive in nature. It is neither intended to nor will it achieve primacy over the PLA in any way. But OTOH, there will not be any major conflict there. That bit about "2-front war" is only about ability not about intention, so you could factor that in to your thought-process, IMO.

Now coming back to the earlier part of your post. That is the real danger (i.e. Religious Fundamentalism and Extremism) that has reared it head up in a huge way. To bedevil the world at large and more importantly to pose a basic threat to Pakistan itself. Its amusing to read about "good terrorists and bad terrorists". That is as intelligent a statement as "good cobras and bad cobras". Have you met anybody who has kept a pet cobra?!
And those wise souls who bandy these expressions about are doomed to find out the hard way- whether there is any difference!
About India getting safer, because the west is facing bigger threats; any such belief is fallacious. These threats are emanating from a lumpen lot, one might say some of the dregs of humanity whose primary fuel is blind unthinking religious(sic) ideas. They will constantly keep changing the targets in their cross-hairs. Of course it was a desirable change only to the extent that the portfolio of targets has grown so huge, from Infidel Indians to Zionist Americans to Crusader Remnant Europeans to Reactionary Saudi Monarchists to Upstart Myanmar. Of course Jews are one of the biggest ingredients in this Alphabet Soup of sworn targets. Too many targets to achieve any worthwhile success, but also think that the initiative is being effectively wrested from the hands of the Deep State. Now nobody will be clear which (or how many) of these trouble-makers are State Actors or Nonstate Actors or Actors beyond anybody's pale. That is the worrisome part, even for the people who run the Deep State.

One last point, in 1971 or 1990: China did not help India. China simply did not step into $hit. China assisted Pakistan only to the extent that it did not disturb the balance between Yin and Yang (too much)!