SCMP: Is China heading for stagnation as property slump goes Japan’s way in a deja vu crisis

[casual]

The red line of 1.24 million square kilometers of cultivated land is too high. We don't need to keep so much arable land.

Now our grain output is 217% of that of India. India has the same population, and they can even export food.

And we are entering a population decline cycle, and the demand for food will become less and less.

I think we can just keep 700000 square kilometers of arable land, and then seriously crack down on food waste. Export tax will be levied on non-staple food export enterprises.

Due some math dude, Beijing has population of 21.6million. An average lot size for a villa is 600 square meters. Let's say the average family size is 3 people and only the top 30% of the population own villas. This comes out to 822 square km. This is just for the lots themselves. With roads, markets, schools and other supporting public infrastructure, it would come to around 1600 square km. Totally unsustainable for China.

 

[MH.Yang]

Due some math dude, Beijing has population of 21.6million. An average lot size for a villa is 600 square meters. Let's say the average family size is 3 people and only the top 30% of the population own villas. This comes out to 822 square km. This is just for the lots themselves. With roads, markets, schools and other supporting public infrastructure, it would come to around 1600 square km. Totally unsustainable for China.

According to the data of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, only 39.9 million households in China have net assets of more than 6 million CNY (860000 US dollars). In fact, the government only needs to approve the land that can build 40 million villas.

 

[Mista]

I think housing should primarily by a public funded and nationally planned model, with a small market component for people wanting to purchase more luxurious properties. They should also tie eligibility of public housing units (i.e., must have children to qualify for 2-bedroom units) to fertility rate to encourage the population to have more children.

That's exactly Singapore's housing model but our TFR is still at abysmal 1.1~1.2 lol.

 

[beijingwalker]

US home prices now posting biggest monthly drops since 2009​

US home prices now posting biggest monthly drops since 2009

Median home prices fell 0.98% in August from a month earlier, following a 1.05% drop in July. Read more at straitstimes.com.

www.straitstimes.com

 

[letsrock]

Let me explain this to you:

5, The property tax will weaken the financial power of the central government. Since the implementation of the tax sharing system in 1994, China has formed a pattern of upward fiscal rights and downward business rights. Once the property tax is implemented, the financial rights of local governments will inevitably change, which will bring political risks.

Are you sure about point 5 ? This tells me china is still a low trust country.

 

[MH.Yang]

Are you sure about point 5 ? This tells me china is still a low trust country.

The stability of a country depends on the system, not the trust. No matter how high a trust is, it is not worth relying on.

 

[beijingwalker]

Are you sure about point 5 ? This tells me china is still a low trust country.

US is a low trust country, China is a high trust country

Public trust surges in China, falls dramatically in world’s democracies

Global survey finds autocratic states scoring well, with a surge to 83 per cent among Chinese respondents and new lows in democratic countries.

www.scmp.com

Most in China Call Their Nation A Democracy, Most in U.S. Say America Isn't

Most in China Call Their Nation A Democracy, Most in U.S. Say America Isn't BY TOM O'CONNOR ON 5/30/22 AT 7:06 AM EDT The overwhelming majority of people living in China say they are living in a democracy. Most people in the United States say they do not. These findings are part of a new...

defence.pk

 

[letsrock]

The stability of a country depends on the system, not the trust. No matter how high a trust is, it is not worth relying on.

Agreed. But primary purpose of System is to serve people not to maintain power hierarchy. Power hierarchy is only needed for smooth functioning but the need for preserving it should not override sensible policies.

ANyway, I personally think China handled this real estate thing very well.

First - by putting an end to builders game of taking money from buyers and using to buy land (instead of building the houses) and using the land as collateral to secure more loans to then build the houses. Thats not proper business but more like rentier capitalism.

Builders will eventually be fine - i mean they may lose millions but they already have billions. Ordinary Chinese looking to buy houses will be very well off.

Already house prices have been more or less stable in last three years. Mortgage interests have come down. Salaries - one can assume have increased by 20% over three years.

This means houses are already cheaper by 25% or so for chinese new buyers. Good for having more children which is another govt policy.

Biggest question is how govt will fill up funding defeciencies of local govt. I think chinese govt has many tools including petrol tax like states in US do.

 

[beijingwalker]

Chinese buy houses, Americans rent houses, or simply sleep on the streets

China Is Likely First Country to Reach 96% Urban Home Ownership

China Is Likely First Country to Reach 96% Urban Home Ownership, PBOC Says

www.yicaiglobal.com