S.Korea's economy no longer supported by China: BOK head

[Mista]

Betting on a single customer in this case China is always risky.

It's never wise to depend too much on a single industry or a single market, whether it's China, US or the EU. Not just because of political coercion, but sometimes just simply because of unforeseen circumstances. Eg; Covid lockdowns.

Some time back there was audio leak by Singapore's then trade minister in a closed-door dialogue with business leaders. He said that we purposely cap the number of Chinese tourists at 20%. We rather make less money and not be overly reliant on any single market.

Urge business leaders to change business model​

So now let’s be very frank ah. Just now I was very blunt already.

Some of you have to change the business model one.

If you don’t change the business model, and you become... if you don’t diversify and have concentration risk, even if we help you this time, we cannot help you the next time.

So if we help you, can sumpah or not?

We make sure we help you, but you all must help yourself. Ok?

If we still have not learned the lesson about diversification, and I don’t mean just China.

I mean China, India and everything ah, we better learn it fast.

Because it affects you, it affects me, it affects all of us.

Tourism in Singapore not numbers game​

So I give you an example. Tourism.

Actually, do you know that in Singapore, our tourist market can grow up even faster.

I got tonnes of tourists queuing up to come to Singapore.

You know that I tell STB, don’t take them. We now don’t go for numbers game.

And I will not allow the Chinese tourists to grow more than 20 percent.

Not the Indian market, not the Indonesian market, because we will be held ransom.

You look at what happened to Taiwan, South Korea, Japan.

When the market is turned off, either for political reasons or economical reasons, we are dead, correct or not?

So I have done what I can do at the national level.

I need your help. At your local level, can you all also do that.

That applies to tourists. That also applies to supply chains.

Full transcript of 25-minute leaked audio recording of Chan Chun Sing dialogue with SCCCI

There are many versions of his dialogue disseminated online.

mothership.sg

We also make a conscious decision to diversify our food imports and trade.

 

[beijingwalker]

1. Koreans don't want to put all their eggs in one basket
2. Koreans will not compromise on matters related to core interests

So, if China thinks that the Koreans are begging China or that they will accept all conditions from the Chinese side, China has misunderstood the problem.

Assuming that the Chinese leaders agree with the Chinese members on this forum, they will most likely seek to completely separate from South Korea and see this as a victory for China.

Time will answer.

It dosen't concern China much, it's Korea's own problem, The Chinese government can't force the Chinese consumers to buy Korean products.

 

[IblinI]

1. Koreans don't want to put all their eggs in one basket
2. Koreans will not compromise on matters related to core interests

So, if China thinks that the Koreans are begging China or that they will accept all conditions from the Chinese side, China has misunderstood the problem.

Assuming that the Chinese leaders agree with the Chinese members on this forum, they will most likely seek to completely separate from South Korea and see this as a victory for China.

Time will answer.

Didn't you see an obvious thing, the recent fuss between China and Korea seems to be geopolitical but actually economical is a very big factor because both countries products are now on hot war.

 

[beijingwalker]

China is not the one who suffers from the record trade deficit, Korea is, so why China bothers to talk with Korea over this unbalanced trade issue at all?

 

[beijingwalker]

It's definitely a genius idea.
Singapore leaders prepare in advance for all possible situations.

Singapore closely follows China's every move, almost always a place China moves in, you'll see Singapore follows in a heartbeat

More Singapore companies looking to meet Central Asia’s growing consumer demand

Central Asia's young and growing population offers opportunities for businesses to gain an early-mover advantage, especially in areas like urban infrastructure, technology and innovative consumer products.

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[zhxy]

It dosen't concern China much, it's Korea's own problem, The Chinese government can't force the Chinese consumers to buy Korean products.

Didn't you see an obvious thing, the recent fuss between China and Korea seems to be geopolitical but actually economical is a very big factor because both countries products are now on hot war.

China is not the one who suffers from the record trade deficit, Korea is, so why China bothers to talk with Korea over this unbalanced trade issue at all?

I mean the views of every Chinese member on this forum. They all have the same conclusion, that is Korea will fail and fall, Korea cannot exist without China....or the Korean economy has no hope...

That's why I wrote the last line:

Time will answer.

 

[jhungary]

小伙子,你比韩国人乐观多了...

how is it optimistic when I quoted the actual data?

OK, I know your level on knowledge about SK now.

and what knowledge do you have??

 

[IblinI]

and what knowledge do you have??

at least not anything close to "korean consume a large part of their own products", considering the amount of stuffs they manufactured...

I mean the views of every Chinese member on this forum. They all have the same conclusion, that is Korea will fail and fall, Korea cannot exist without China....or the Korean economy has no hope...

你是懂得给人总结的,谁tmd说过韩国会倒啊,不过韩国人最近因为贸易逆差很头疼也是事实.

 

[Mista]

I mean the views of every Chinese member on this forum. They all have the same conclusion, that is Korea will fail and fall, Korea cannot exist without China....or the Korean economy has no hope...

There are like 100+ countries with trade deficit lol.

The biggest problem which requires Korea's immediate attention is their demographics. At 0.78 TFR, they are on the way to shrink by 63% every generation.

 

[kankan326]

Shrinking exports to China will not doom Korea. If true then Germany will doom too because less exports to China.

Shrinking exports to China will not doom Korea. Korea has a diversified economy and is not overly reliant on any one export market. .

In his dream, yes, he really do believe South Korea was supported alone by China.....

You guys should have a longer sight with this news. The major reason for S.Korea export shrinking to China is not because China's demand decreases, but because Chinese companies are more competitive in technologies than ever before. Which means in the long run, Chinese goods will kick S.Korean products out in other markets. For example BYD is planning to expand oversea sale and build factories in other countries from this year. The worst scenario for S.Korea has not come yet. You guys are wrong for being optimistic for S.Korea's future

 

[jhungary]

at least not anything close to "korean consume a large part of their own products", considering the amount of stuffs they manufactured...

First of all, except for a few cases where natural resource and produces are not available to them, EVERY COUNTRY would have consume most of their own products. And by products I don't just mean Samsung Phone, LG TV, Hyundai Automobile or whatever that South Korean computer memory, but it mean anything produced by South Korea, from farming products, such as rice, beef, lettuce and so on, to resources such as Graphite, Zinc, Silver, Gold or whatever.

On the other hand, it's a no brainer to assume whatever South Korea produce would first goes to local consumer, and then the excess products are sold interntionally, hence goes into export. So, if we simply look at the South Korean GDP by sector (Which will give the total output per category) and comapre the export value, we can see how much of the products are consumed in local market.

GDP by Sector, 2022

Top 10 Korean Export in 2022

1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$210.4 billion (30.8% of total exports)
2. Vehicles: $75.6 billion (11.1%)
3. Machinery including computers: $73 billion (10.7%)
4. Mineral fuels including oil: $64.8 billion (9.5%)
5. Plastics, plastic articles: $41.2 billion (6%)
6. Iron, steel: $28.1 billion (4.1%)
7. Organic chemicals: $24.7 billion (3.6%)
8. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $18.2 billion (2.7%)
9. Ships, boats: $17.1 billion (2.5%)
10. Inorganic chemicals: $15.6 billion (2.3%)

South Korea's Top Exports 2023

South Korea's top exports in 2023 plus an automated database of 100 most valuable Korean exports & best international trade customers & trade surpluses or deficits by product & major South Korean export companies

www.worldstopexports.com

If you look at both data. You will know even if we just talk about manufacturing, about 50% of those value were consumed by local market. In all, around 60-65% of Korean GDP were consumed within Korea.

Now, if you want to open your mouth and challenge this, please do, but please support your argument with data and evidence, I am not at all interest on arguing something with you when you are using your own word as evidence.

 

[jhungary]

You guys should have a longer sight with this news. The major reason for S.Korea export shrinking to China is not because China's demand decreases, but because Chinese companies are more competitive in technologies than ever before. Which means in the long run, Chinese goods will kick S.Korean products out in other markets. For example BYD is planning to expand oversea sale and build factories in other countries from this year. The worst scenario for S.Korea has not come yet. You guys are wrong for being optimistic for S.Korea's future

I don't see how it related.

It's always about supply and demand, even if you are talking about more advance version of the same product. It's still about supply and demand.

On the other hand, expanding oversea market does not mean you are more competitive in technology.......I can tell you Hyundai Getz outsold BMW i4 in all market, that does not mean Getz is more technologically advanced than an i4.

 

[kankan326]

I don't see how it related.

It's always about supply and demand, even if you are talking about more advance version of the same product. It's still about supply and demand.

On the other hand, expanding oversea market does not mean you are more competitive in technology.......I can tell you Hyundai Getz outsold BMW i4 in all market, that does not mean Getz is more technologically advanced than an i4.

What I meant is, Chinese companies can offer lower prices for decent quality. Chinese goods have decent quality now thank to technology improvement.

 

[jhungary]

What I meant is, Chinese companies can offer lower prices for decent quality. Chinese goods have decent quality now thank to technology improvement.

umm....weren't that is what China has been doing ever since??

I think you are confused with High Tech, High Value product with "Good product with bang for your bucks"

 

[kankan326]

That happened a long time ago. I remember the THAAD incident. China has heavily imposed sanctions on South Korea, seeking to isolate South Korea. At that time, many Chinese were confident that South Korea would collapse and had to kneel and beg China.

But, all of that did not happen. South Korea is fine, they continue to persist in deploying THAAD in their territory.

Of course, South Korea could change its stance and beg China to lift the embargo, but they never will. Because if they accept the compromise, it will become South Korea's weakness and be used by China. In the future, if a conflict occurs, China will adopt similar measures.

South Korea will not compromise because of some economic interests. National interest is above all.

South Korea has learned an important lesson from that event, and it has taken many measures to limit its dependence on China. That is why recently, when South Korea accelerated the deployment of THAAD, China did not re-impose sanctions. Because that doesn't bring much effect.

"What doesn't kill you, it only makes you stronger"

Things are very different this time. In 2016 THAAD incident, China's technologies overall lagged behind S.Korea. China was in defensive position back then. China is in offensive position today. Chinese companies will not only kick S.Korean companies out of Chinese market, they will also kick them out in other markets, except USA market.

umm....weren't that is what China has been doing ever since??

I think you are confused with High Tech, High Value product with "Good product with bang for your bucks"

China used to sell lower quality goods with lower prices. Today compared to S.Korea, China sells equally good quality goods with lower prices. Sense the difference.