S.Korea's economy no longer supported by China: BOK head

[zhxy]

You guys should have a longer sight with this news. The major reason for S.Korea export shrinking to China is not because China's demand decreases, but because Chinese companies are more competitive in technologies than ever before. Which means in the long run, Chinese goods will kick S.Korean products out in other markets. For example BYD is planning to expand oversea sale and build factories in other countries from this year. The worst scenario for S.Korea has not come yet. You guys are wrong for being optimistic for S.Korea's future

It's just part of the cycle

1. The UK started the industrial revolution, the goods and products he sold in every European country
2. Germany started to catch up, German goods and products beat British goods and products
3. USA is the next country to take over this position, American goods and products beat German goods and products
4. Japan replaced the United States, Japanese goods and products were popular in every country in the 50s-90s, during that period many people thought that Japan would buy all the West.
5. Korea replaces Japan's role, but in some areas and for a short period of time.
6. Now is China's time. Chinese goods are everywhere.
7. In the future, who will replace China? It could be India, or Africa....or some other country.

Conclusion: No one is the main character forever, everyone will be replaced. But no country collapses when it is replaced by other nations. And there's also no way to knock out all the products and goods of a country. Each country will find a different model to survive and adapt. Their goods can still be sold in many different countries

Japanese goods in the decade (50-90 better and cheaper than American and German goods. Does that mean that American and German goods and products cannot be exported or sold to other countries? Completely wrong.
-> The same is true for China and south Korea now.

 

[Viet]

It's never wise to depend too much on a single industry or a single market, whether it's China, US or the EU. Not just because of political coercion, but sometimes just simply because of unforeseen circumstances. Eg; Covid lockdowns.

Some time back there was audio leak by Singapore's then trade minister in a closed-door dialogue with business leaders. He said that we purposely cap the number of Chinese tourists at 20%. We rather make less money and not be overly reliant on any single market.

Full transcript of 25-minute leaked audio recording of Chan Chun Sing dialogue with SCCCI

There are many versions of his dialogue disseminated online.

mothership.sg

We also make a conscious decision to diversify our food imports and trade.

View attachment 931180
View attachment 931181

Exactly. Korea shrinking birth rate is worse than corona, north korean nukes, the PLA, and shrinking exports to China combined.

In the case of Singapore, well, you are one of the smart guys in room. You playing double face poker with US and CN.

 

[kankan326]

It's just part of the cycle

1. The UK started the industrial revolution, the goods and products he sold in every European country
2. Germany started to catch up, German goods and products beat British goods and products
3. USA is the next country to take over this position, American goods and products beat German goods and products
4. Japan replaced the United States, Japanese goods and products were popular in every country in the 50s-90s, during that period many people thought that Japan would buy all the West.
5. Korea replaces Japan's role, but in some areas and for a short period of time.
6. Now is China's time. Chinese goods are everywhere.
7. In the future, who will replace China? It could be India, or Africa....or some other country.

Conclusion: No one is the main character forever, everyone will be replaced. But no country collapses when it is replaced by other nations.

Disagree. China will end the cycle. Tropical countries can not become world factory.

 

[beijingwalker]

It's just part of the cycle

1. The UK started the industrial revolution, the goods and products he sold in every European country
2. Germany started to catch up, German goods and products beat British goods and products
3. USA is the next country to take over this position, American goods and products beat German goods and products
4. Japan replaced the United States, Japanese goods and products were popular in every country in the 50s-90s, during that period many people thought that Japan would buy all the West.
5. Korea replaces Japan's role, but in some areas and for a short period of time.
6. Now is China's time. Chinese goods are everywhere.
7. In the future, who will replace China? It could be India, or Africa....or some other country.

Conclusion: No one is the main character forever, everyone will be replaced. But no country collapses when it is replaced by other nations. And there's also no way to knock out all the products and goods of a country. Each country will find a different model to survive and adapt. Their goods can still be sold in many different countries

Japanese goods in the decade (50-90 better and cheaper than American and German goods. Does that mean that American and German goods and products cannot be exported or sold to other countries? Completely wrong.
-> The same is true for China and south Korea now.

When the baton passed to China, it's all over.

 

[大汉奸柳传志]

Shrinking exports to China will not doom Korea.

China out-competing/undercutting Korean products is the real doom

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

China no longer needed to accommodate them in the national economic plan.

LOL! As if that really was some long term "nicety" plan that suddenly got changed due to recent events.

 

[IblinI]

First of all, except for a few cases where natural resource and produces are not available to them, EVERY COUNTRY would have consume most of their own products. And by products I don't just mean Samsung Phone, LG TV, Hyundai Automobile or whatever that South Korean computer memory, but it mean anything produced by South Korea, from farming products, such as rice, beef, lettuce and so on, to resources such as Graphite, Zinc, Silver, Gold or whatever.

On the other hand, it's a no brainer to assume whatever South Korea produce would first goes to local consumer, and then the excess products are sold interntionally, hence goes into export. So, if we simply look at the South Korean GDP by sector (Which will give the total output per category) and comapre the export value, we can see how much of the products are consumed in local market.

GDP by Sector, 2022

View attachment 931194

Top 10 Korean Export in 2022

1. Electrical machinery, equipment: US$210.4 billion (30.8% of total exports)
2. Vehicles: $75.6 billion (11.1%)
3. Machinery including computers: $73 billion (10.7%)
4. Mineral fuels including oil: $64.8 billion (9.5%)
5. Plastics, plastic articles: $41.2 billion (6%)
6. Iron, steel: $28.1 billion (4.1%)
7. Organic chemicals: $24.7 billion (3.6%)
8. Optical, technical, medical apparatus: $18.2 billion (2.7%)
9. Ships, boats: $17.1 billion (2.5%)
10. Inorganic chemicals: $15.6 billion (2.3%)

South Korea's Top Exports 2023

South Korea's top exports in 2023 plus an automated database of 100 most valuable Korean exports & best international trade customers & trade surpluses or deficits by product & major South Korean export companies

www.worldstopexports.com

If you look at both data. You will know even if we just talk about manufacturing, about 50% of those value were consumed by local market. In all, around 60-65% of Korean GDP were consumed within Korea.

Now, if you want to open your mouth and challenge this, please do, but please support your argument with data and evidence, I am not at all interest on arguing something with you when you are using your own word as evidence.

大聪明data侠,永远写着小论文却得出错误的结论,那你告诉我韩国产品为什么失去了中国市场?

 

[dbc]

大聪明data侠,永远写着小论文却得出错误的结论,那你告诉我韩国产品为什么失去了中国市场?

because contract manufacturing is moving out of China to India and Vietnam. you can see it in the corresponding increase in Korean exports to both Vietnam and India. Korean exports to India in Q1 surged by 20%, Korean trade with Vietnam in 2023 is expected to double.

 

[jhungary]

大聪明data侠,永远写着小论文却得出错误的结论,那你告诉我韩国产品为什么失去了中国市场?

Yes, i am wrong because you said I am wrong, how about you give me a reason why my data or calculation is wrong and I will tell you why Korean product is losing in Chinese market?

Again, you are more than welcome to challenge my assertion, with data and evidence, not just with you mouth

 

[IblinI]

Yes, i am wrong because you said I am wrong, how about you give me a reason why my data or calculation is wrong and I will tell you why Korean product is losing in Chinese market?

Again, you are more than welcome to challenge my assertion, with data and evidence, not just with you mouth

没有啊 你不是中国崩溃论的坚定支持者吗？你已经无数次用你data论证了,所以什么时候崩溃?

because contract manufacturing is moving out of China to India and Vietnam. you can see it in the corresponding increase in Korean exports to both Vietnam and India. Korean exports to India in Q1 surged by 20%, Korean trade with Vietnam in 2023 is expected to double.

我不是说韩国产业而是韩国商品为什么在中国没有人买了？你不看韩国在印投资的基数吗？增加20%就是"surged"?

 

[jhungary]

没有啊 你不是中国崩溃论的坚定支持者吗？你已经无数次用你data论证了,所以什么时候崩溃?


我不是说韩国产业而是韩国商品为什么在中国没有人买了？

Since when did I ever say China will collapse??

Are you stupid of thinking it would not affect Korea much = "China will collapse" or just making things up now?

 

[IblinI]

Since when did I ever say China will collapse??

Are you stupid of thinking it would not affect Korea much = "China will collapse" or just making things up now?

小伙,你永远在唱衰中国的第一线,仅仅是一个帖子的事情吗？谁不眼熟你,哪个中国贴里没有你,秃子头上的虱子了好吗？(如果你懂得这是什么意思.)

 

[jhungary]

小伙,你永远在唱衰中国的第一线,仅仅是一个帖子的事情吗？谁不眼熟你,哪个中国贴里没有你,秃子头上的虱子了好吗？(如果你懂得这是什么意思.)

Again, name me one even one time I bad mouth China? show me one post that I did that. My hostility is always about CPC and its leadership, not about the country.

 

[dbc]

我不是说韩国产业而是韩国商品为什么在中国没有人买了？你不看韩国在印投资的基数吗？增加20%就是"surged"?

I guess you have to be spoon fed. Factories in China import components from Korea, chips, chemicals, machinery and such. When these factories relocate to India and Vietnam you will see a decline in Chinese imports and an increase in Korean exports to India and Vietnam. Yes a 20% increase quarter on quarter is a surge.

 

[salarsikander]

Well India's trade deficit is financed by FDI and non resident Indians buying real estate at exorbitant prices, for example. It's not like Pakistan, where they have to go around with a bowl in hand.

SHit Rundians cannot go one moment without mentioning the Word PAKISTAN - truly Disguting and vile creatures to walk on earth