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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

What Russia fears:-


NATO is powerful, but not as powerful as China + CSTO. Also, NATO is held together by the US. By 2050 the US is not white majority and weak like Mexico and Brazil and NATO breaks up.

 
Real word western analyst reporting



"Ukraine victory & Russian withdrawal outside areas it wants to annex. With Russians still putting pressure on donbas region"

Vs.

Pdf delusional tomboys and hee-haa

ukrain gonna march to Moscow
Beating a strawman doesnt make you right. Russia is trying to define its goals in the aftermath of its failed offensive. Luhansk is at stake at this moment, and russias finest are facing defeat in the Kherson region west of Dnieper river. There is no way Russia is getting away with another sham referendum in Ukraine again.
Russia is facing a combined indefinitely western support of Ukraine, no matter how many times Putins going to remind us Russia is a nuclear power.
 
Beating a strawman doesnt make you right. Russia is trying to define its goals in the aftermath of its failed offensive. Luhansk is at stake at this moment, and russias finest are facing defeat in the Kherson region west of Dnieper river. There is no way Russia is getting away with another sham referendum in Ukraine again.
Russia is facing a combined indefinitely western support of Ukraine, no matter how many times Putins going to remind us Russia is a nuclear power.

There is no such thing as forever support. The US gave up supporting South Vietnam and Ghani Afghanistan. If the pressure is too much, the US will give up supporting Ukraine and support the winning side Russia which is bigger and has bigger consumer products market which is more profitable.
 
You are of course entitled to my opinion, as much as I do, and that's my opinion, it's okay you disagree with.

However, I will want to say one thing tho. Hedging the bet is the right move, however, this is actually the third success Counter Attacks carried out by the Ukrainian, first being push back all the territories North of Kyiv in late March, second being Push back all the territories north of Kharkiv and Sumy in May, and this Kharkiv Offensive is the third successful counter attack (fourth if we also counted the limited local offensive in Mykolaiv and Kherson leading to liberation of snake island and some ground North of Kherson)

So if this is a bet, and the West want to wait and see how the Ukrainian is doing and whether or not they should be helped by NATO I will say if I am a risky betting man, I would put my hat in the ring after they push the Russian off Kyiv, and if I was a conservative betting man, I would bet on Ukraine after the Sumy/Kharkiv offensive, you know by then they can't lose, but then the west and the US did nothing, and even a month after the third successful counter offensive, the support is still not coming.

The Ukrainian really need to have that list of weapons to make a different, otherwise it will be a slow grind. they need a big push, and the west is probably at this stage setting them back at the moment, because I don't think the Russian would have answer to any general big push (like push on all front) if the Ukrainian did it. But then the Ukrainian won't because they are lacking the tanks, artillery, SPG to make it happen, you can't just lob bodies against the line and hope it will break thru and you won't be able to catch Russia with their pants down twice.

That's my assessment.
My last comment was referring to the situation back in Jan-June. I agree with you that now situation is a lot more dynamic and more will have to be done. As both sides try to get an edge, I hope there is something being done to analyze how to electronically neutralize the Iranian drones . Now that they are in operation, it will be easier to detect their signals for analysis to see how to non-kinetically neutralize them.
 
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My bet comment was referring to the situation back in Jan-June. I agree with you that now situation is a lot more dynamic and more will have to be done. As both sides try to get an edge, I hope there is something being done to analyze how to electronically neutralize the Iranian drones . Now that they are in operation, it will be easier to detect their signals for analysis to see how to non-kinetically neutralize them.

You cannot neutralize if they are not remote controlled. Buzz bombs are essentially prop powered cruise missiles.
 
You cannot neutralize if they are not remote controlled. Buzz bombs are essentially prop powered cruise missiles.
Now that they have picked up the first drone out of the water, its a matter of time to see what RF or microwave specifically will work against it. This drone is a game changer for 3-4 weeks, at best.

NATO's OODA loop is much faster than any adversary in terms being ready strategically for the future and also in a tactical situation.
 
Now that they have picked up the first drone out of the water, its a matter of time to see what RF or microwave specifically will work against it. This drone is a game changer for 3-4 weeks, at best.

NATO's OODA loop is much faster than any adversary in terms being ready strategically for the future and also in a tactical situation.

Cost benefit analysis. Prop powered drones are dirt cheap. They can deplete much more expensive hardware like MANPADS. Especially considering Russia set up a number of factories manufacturing dozens of these a day.
 
You do not get it.
If the US decides to do a massive strike on Russia, then they will attack China and North Korea as well - at the same time.
Allowing China to attack the US first before attacking China is going to have higher US casualties.
It is in Chinas best interest to threaten Russia with nuclear war to stop Putin from initiating the exchange.

I doubt Usa will do just that. Attacking 3 Nuclear states at once would have severe consequences. China in return will fire everything at USA and Europe, Russia will also do the same. We can say Russian nukes are not good enough but China has plenty of nukes, from air to ground, from submarines, ballistic missiles. Nuclear strike on China will destroy India aswell. The conclusion is afterwards we will most likely be living in bunkers or caves.
 
Seems everyone is having delusions here that even western analyst aren't.

Russia has for the first time clarified it goals. She no longer wants to take all Ukraine and is only going to focus on three regions that it already has taken 80% and is advancing even now as we speak
Sure it's withdrawing from Kharkov and areas surrounding it is not going to annex that region anyway

Seems everyone will end up being happy once Russia annex those regions just like in crimera

Doubt Europe will have appetite to continue this war once Russia calls those land as Russian.

Here is Ukraine victory map.
The greenish blue area is what Russia intend to take with only two major cities it wants to take. My guess Russia is going to keeping with drawing so it can focus on donbass and zaoprizhzhia



View attachment 882546

View attachment 882547
You nailed it..
 
Beating a strawman doesnt make you right. Russia is trying to define its goals in the aftermath of its failed offensive. Luhansk is at stake at this moment, and russias finest are facing defeat in the Kherson region west of Dnieper river. There is no way Russia is getting away with another sham referendum in Ukraine again.
Russia is facing a combined indefinitely western support of Ukraine, no matter how many times Putins going to remind us Russia is a nuclear power.
Is it?
At least not from the people
People worry more about gas prices rather then donbass region.


My assement is war is getting in end zone..if Russia takes donbass does referendum this will effectively means Europe will agree to step back and accept this in exchange for gas
 
Beating a strawman doesnt make you right. Russia is trying to define its goals in the aftermath of its failed offensive. Luhansk is at stake at this moment, and russias finest are facing defeat in the Kherson region west of Dnieper river. There is no way Russia is getting away with another sham referendum in Ukraine again.
Russia is facing a combined indefinitely western support of Ukraine, no matter how many times Putins going to remind us Russia is a nuclear power.
No, Russia defined it's goal when it sent around 100K soldiers to invade Ukraine, it was obvious then that it was a limited operation. Putin's only gripe was the attack on Russian people in the Donbass region. If the Ukrainians hadn't attacked the Donbass region and ignited a civil war they would be living peacefully now. But the Ukrainians were egged on for the greater glory of NATO which has lead the world to the precipice of nuclear war. One miscalculation or mistake and the Europe could be devastated.
 
Seems everyone is having delusions here that even western analyst aren't.

Russia has for the first time clarified it goals. She no longer wants to take all Ukraine and is only going to focus on three regions that it already has taken 80% and is advancing even now as we speak
Sure it's withdrawing from Kharkov and areas surrounding it is not going to annex that region anyway

Seems everyone will end up being happy once Russia annex those regions just like in crimera

Doubt Europe will have appetite to continue this war once Russia calls those land as Russian.

Here is Ukraine victory map.
The greenish blue area is what Russia intend to take with only two major cities it wants to take. My guess Russia is going to keeping with drawing so it can focus on donbass and zaoprizhzhia



View attachment 882546

View attachment 882547
Actually, most analyst I know, including me, think Referendum would not change the ground matrix any bit, the fighting is going to continue because of 4 factors.

1.) Annexation cannot be fully implemented because Ukraine still holds lands that holding these "Referendum". And there are no way Russia can dislodge that force, even with 300,000 partial mobilisations.

2.) General sentiment in some parts of Annexed area is hostile to Russia, unlike in Crimea, which is generally friendly to Russia, this is quite apparent for the roughly 35 assassinations to Pro-Russia Official in occupied Region.

3.) There is nothing Russia can do to change the matrix on the ground, because there are only 2 courses of action left if Ukraine and the West keep attacking the so called "Annexed" territories. Nuclear Option and Full Mobilisation. Nuclear option would mean either the world (Including Russia) loses this war because we all die as it will escalate into a global thermonuclear conflict. Don't ever kid yourself a single or a few Tactical Nuclear Device will not do anything, if even one Tactical Nuclear Device is used, it WILL escalate. On the other hand, full mobilisation will not change the war because of the fundamental problem the Russian suffer from the beginning of the war, which is command and control problem, logistic problem, morale problem. Just because Putin claim this is now Russian land does not make Russian suddenly want to fight for those land, which is evidenced that even a Partial Mobilisation with reserve troop spawn into a massive protest and exodus.

I have explained in detail according to my Knowledge of how NATO works for the years I work for NATO command, what they will do when Russia send a Tactical Nuclear Device to any big city in Ukraine, like Kyiv, Kharkiv or Lviv. Believe it or not is up to you

I will tell you what US and EU WILL do if and when Russia nuke Kyiv with a 20-50kt tactical nuclear device.

First of all, there are going to be EU or NATO peacekeeper in and around Kyiv, that's a given. That's 100% it will happen

Then high chance (between 70-90%) NATO will enforce a no-fly zone to stop every air traffic in Ukraine. That's highly likely in order to contain the nuclear fallout.

Medium chance (about 50-60%) NATO will enact a peacemaking mission, declaring all Russian force within pre-2022 or 2014 border as legitimate target. And will deploy troop and air asset on the ground and pound the Russian force in Ukraine international border, every target will be destroyed. That is done so NATO can insert peacekeeper to enforce border security between Ukraine and Russia and stop the ongoing conflict. Stop the conflict from getting further out of hand.

Low chance (Between 20% to 40%) NATO will fly into Russia and destroy strategic target or nuclear capable target, also known as "Full Count" to stop further nuclear escalation.

What Russia will do is either take lost in Ukraine, or escalate to global nuclear option, as long as NATO does not have ground intrusion into Russia, this is highly unlikely to happen.

Problem is, once you use a tactical nuclear device, then NATO have to intervene. Because either NATO did not do anything, and Russia will use the same trick on other country, or even NATO member, and second, most likely the radioactive fallout will float into Poland and Poland will initiate Article 5. So NATO are going to do something, as far as I know from what I served in NATO capacity, those are the option they have.

4.) Almost all military aid package are pre-planned (ie the draw down, and the lend least coming into effect in October) It will not likely for politican to go back on those planning with a referendum result, which mean there are going to stteady supplies of Western Arms at least until deep into Next June.

And any objective analyst will tell you Referendum is not actually showing Russian strength to the position of this war, rather, it shows that Russia is getting desperate because they believe or at least want to believe, if they annexed those land then hostility will stop, it just won't because the war in the Ukrainian side is power by two things. 1.) Kick the Russian out, that's their motivation. 2.) Western Support. Both of which are unlikely to stop even after these "Referendum". In fact, it would most likely going the other way, which legitimate Crimea into Ukrainian target list because it will be the same status as other "annexed" territories.

That's my honest assessment on the ground situation, this is as if Think Tank want to commission me for my thought, believe it, don't believe it, it is up to you, and I guess we will find out in 4 days.
 
No, Russia defined it's goal when it sent around 100K soldiers to invade Ukraine, it was obvious then that it was a limited operation. Putin's only gripe was the attack on Russian people in the Donbass region. If the Ukrainians hadn't attacked the Donbass region and ignited a civil war they would be living peacefully now. But the Ukrainians were egged on for the greater glory of NATO which has lead the world to the precipice of nuclear war. One miscalculation or mistake and the Europe could be devastated.
Wrong
Putin just claimed it was limited op.
His goal was the capital..

But now he has given up on that goal

Actually, most analyst I know, including me, think Referendum would not change the ground matrix any bit, the fighting is going to continue because of 4 factors.

1.) Annexation cannot be fully implemented because Ukraine still holds lands that holding these "Referendum". And there are no way Russia can dislodge that force, even with 300,000 partial mobilisations.

2.) General sentiment in some parts of Annexed area is hostile to Russia, unlike in Crimea, which is generally friendly to Russia, this is quite apparent for the roughly 35 assassinations to Pro-Russia Official in occupied Region.

3.) There is nothing Russia can do to change the matrix on the ground, because there are only 2 courses of action left if Ukraine and the West keep attacking the so called "Annexed" territories. Nuclear Option and Full Mobilisation. Nuclear option would mean either the world (Including Russia) loses this war because we all die as it will escalate into a global thermonuclear conflict. Don't ever kid yourself a single or a few Tactical Nuclear Device will not do anything, if even one Tactical Nuclear Device is used, it WILL escalate. On the other hand, full mobilisation will not change the war because of the fundamental problem the Russian suffer from the beginning of the war, which is command and control problem, logistic problem, morale problem. Just because Putin claim this is now Russian land does not make Russian suddenly want to fight for those land, which is evidenced that even a Partial Mobilisation with reserve troop spawn into a massive protest and exodus.

I have explained in detail according to my Knowledge of how NATO works for the years I work for NATO command, what they will do when Russia send a Tactical Nuclear Device to any big city in Ukraine, like Kyiv, Kharkiv or Lviv. Believe it or not is up to you



4.) Almost all military aid package are pre-planned (ie the draw down, and the lend least coming into effect in October) It will not likely for politican to go back on those planning with a referendum result, which mean there are going to stteady supplies of Western Arms at least until deep into Next June.

And any objective analyst will tell you Referendum is not actually showing Russian strength to the position of this war, rather, it shows that Russia is getting desperate because they believe or at least want to believe, if they annexed those land then hostility will stop, it just won't because the war in the Ukrainian side is power by two things. 1.) Kick the Russian out, that's their motivation. 2.) Western Support. Both of which are unlikely to stop even after these "Referendum". In fact, it would most likely going the other way, which legitimate Crimea into Ukrainian target list because it will be the same status as other "annexed" territories.

That's my honest assessment on the ground situation, this is as if Think Tank want to commission me for my thought, believe it, don't believe it, it is up to you, and I guess we will find out in 4 days.
It changed in crimera it will change it now too.
Once annexed and captured Russian will do everything including nukes to keep the areas.
Super power don't give up their home land

The war will effectively be over if Russia captures and annex the areas..it already has 80% of region..

Hence why Ukraine will throw everything at this time before the referendum

Regardless situation will get clear in 4-6 weeks
 

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