An unprecedented meeting occurred last week between the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump — the president of the United States, and Vice president JD Vance in the Oval Office. What began as a typical diplomatic exchange soon escalated into an angry dispute over the fate of U.S. backing for Ukraine. The broader question still hangs: Does Ukraine have to agree to end the war on whatever terms, or could it still drive the outcome? With the Trump administration reportedly starting to pull aid, can Ukraine sustain its fight without American support?
But Russia has also fared poorly. Though it has made territorial gains through 2024 and early in 2025, its forces have done so slowly and at immense cost. Still, U.S. policy has at times parroted Russian propaganda, prompting concerns that Washington’s position might serve to fortify Moscow.
A forced end to the war, under Russia’s unyielding terms, would equate to the Putin regime determining the settlement terms; so it would be a type of surrender. Kyiv has its own choice to make: capitulate or keep battling without its most potent ally. But with active public backing, Ukraine has long decided that capitulating is not an option.
The implications of a U.S. withdrawal, though, go well beyond Ukraine. If Washington Ioves up to Moscow in ways that weaken Ukraine, it will fracture the Western alliance. Ukrainians, who have already suffered so much, will continue to fight for their very existence, no matter how much they're pressured from outside.
Ukraine, for its part, has its own challenges. Although it has kept Russian air superiority at bay, Moscow retains control of airspace around the frontlines, allowing for the use of guided bomb strikes. This manpower problem is acute, as limits on Western assistance have made manning infantry focused combat the obvious solution.
While Europe can offer some money, Ukraine remains in need of certain U.S. military capabilities, including advanced air defense systems and real-time battlefield intelligence. And without such ones, long-term deterrence against Russia will be hard to sustain.
The world now faces a moment of choice. Ukraine is either supported in its struggle for survival, or the world runs the risk of allowing Russia to redefine global security norms by brute force. Ukraine has shown its resilience, but the decisions made in Washington and European capitals in the next few months will set the stakes of this war and therefore of global stability.
Washington’s Position: A Change in U.S. Policy
Even prior to the meeting, the White House was signaling its approach — Ukraine has no leverage, and must abide by terms dictated to it by outside powers. Zelensky, though, vigorously denied this belief. Although Ukrainians want an end to the war, they say it must be based on terms that guarantee lasting security. It is now clear after three years of savage war that older strategies, including those backed by previous U.S. administrations, failed to open a clear road to peace. Limits on military assistance have contributed to an infantry-heavy war of attrition, placing enormous pressure on Ukrainian forces.But Russia has also fared poorly. Though it has made territorial gains through 2024 and early in 2025, its forces have done so slowly and at immense cost. Still, U.S. policy has at times parroted Russian propaganda, prompting concerns that Washington’s position might serve to fortify Moscow.
A Missed Chance to Pressure Russia
At a key moment when Washington had an opening to pressure the Kremlin, it seems to be retreating instead. Ukraine has offered a phased ceasefire, beginning with a cessation of air and maritime hostilities, but a forced peace without security guarantees would create a perilous precedent. The fledgling Oval Office talk hinted at a deal involving the United States and Russia expecting Ukraine to comply with whatever terms it is offered—one approach that risks backfiring by leaving us with some flimsy, half-baked arrangement that does not hold.A forced end to the war, under Russia’s unyielding terms, would equate to the Putin regime determining the settlement terms; so it would be a type of surrender. Kyiv has its own choice to make: capitulate or keep battling without its most potent ally. But with active public backing, Ukraine has long decided that capitulating is not an option.
Ukraine’s Future Without American Support
Ukraine’s war effort will not break down overnight even if U.S. aid is cut off. European support, reaffirmed by a gathering of European leaders in London in recent days, will be critical. Although a long freeze in U.S. aid would generate problems, it wouldn’t spell immediate loss.The implications of a U.S. withdrawal, though, go well beyond Ukraine. If Washington Ioves up to Moscow in ways that weaken Ukraine, it will fracture the Western alliance. Ukrainians, who have already suffered so much, will continue to fight for their very existence, no matter how much they're pressured from outside.
Russia’s Woes and Ukraine’s Resolve
But these goals also languish unfulfilled. Ukrainian forces have reopened the Black Sea to trade, kept energy supplies flowing despite ongoing assaults and pressed ahead with the defense of strategically important areas. Russia has lost 900,000 personnel and 100,000 of its major weapons systems. In 2024 it captured less than 1 percent of Ukrainian territory, and its advance has slowed even more since then.Russia’s Military Weaknesses
Russia’s troops are stretched thin. It has a hard time replacing battlefield losses, and its reliance on newly manufactured drones and missiles hints at stockpile depletion. If Russia needs North Korean reinforcements, its recruitment numbers are already lacking and high casualty rates make sufficient troop training difficult.Ukraine, for its part, has its own challenges. Although it has kept Russian air superiority at bay, Moscow retains control of airspace around the frontlines, allowing for the use of guided bomb strikes. This manpower problem is acute, as limits on Western assistance have made manning infantry focused combat the obvious solution.
A lifeline to Ukraine: The European Support
Russia has a very high tolerance for casualties, so that battlefield setbacks tend to work better than human losses at forcing a change in strategy. Even minor territorial setbacks for Moscow might compel Putin to rethink his strategy. Should Ukraine recover occupied territory, that will lead the Kremlin to feel more pressure to de-escalate. A credible threat of sustained Ukrainian advances could prompt Russia to engage in serious negotiations.Averting Another Russian Aggression
Mr. Putin must not be allowed to get away with the war so far, and even if a ceasefire is negotiated, there must be deterrent to prevent a future Russian offensive. NATO membership for Ukraine would have been the best answer, but lacking that, Kyiv has to create a military that is in a position to deter more invasions. European leaders have broached the subject of sending peacekeeping troops there, but they would need to know specifically what their role and jurisdiction would be.While Europe can offer some money, Ukraine remains in need of certain U.S. military capabilities, including advanced air defense systems and real-time battlefield intelligence. And without such ones, long-term deterrence against Russia will be hard to sustain.
A Pivotal Moment for Ukraine and the West
A badly thought out settlement would not only endanger Ukraine, but could jeopardize global stability. Washington must not allow Moscow to dictate terms, which would only embolden future aggression — if you think we have a Russia problem now, wait until we set this precedent. Ukraine’s efforts to recover economically and to rebuild after the war would be born under the ever-present shadow of renewed Russian attacks.The world now faces a moment of choice. Ukraine is either supported in its struggle for survival, or the world runs the risk of allowing Russia to redefine global security norms by brute force. Ukraine has shown its resilience, but the decisions made in Washington and European capitals in the next few months will set the stakes of this war and therefore of global stability.
