Seems everyone is having delusions here that even western analyst aren't.
Russia has for the first time clarified it goals. She no longer wants to take all Ukraine and is only going to focus on three regions that it already has taken 80% and is advancing even now as we speak
Sure it's withdrawing from Kharkov and areas surrounding it is not going to annex that region anyway
Seems everyone will end up being happy once Russia annex those regions just like in crimera
Doubt Europe will have appetite to continue this war once Russia calls those land as Russian.
Here is Ukraine victory map.
The greenish blue area is what Russia intend to take with only two major cities it wants to take. My guess Russia is going to keeping with drawing so it can focus on donbass and zaoprizhzhia
View attachment 882546
View attachment 882547
Actually, most analyst I know, including me, think Referendum would not change the ground matrix any bit, the fighting is going to continue because of 4 factors.
1.) Annexation cannot be fully implemented because Ukraine still holds lands that holding these "Referendum". And there are no way Russia can dislodge that force, even with 300,000 partial mobilisations.
2.) General sentiment in some parts of Annexed area is hostile to Russia, unlike in Crimea, which is generally friendly to Russia, this is quite apparent for the roughly 35 assassinations to Pro-Russia Official in occupied Region.
3.) There is nothing Russia can do to change the matrix on the ground, because there are only 2 courses of action left if Ukraine and the West keep attacking the so called "Annexed" territories. Nuclear Option and Full Mobilisation. Nuclear option would mean either the world (Including Russia) loses this war because we all die as it will escalate into a global thermonuclear conflict. Don't ever kid yourself a single or a few Tactical Nuclear Device will not do anything, if even one Tactical Nuclear Device is used, it WILL escalate. On the other hand, full mobilisation will not change the war because of the fundamental problem the Russian suffer from the beginning of the war, which is command and control problem, logistic problem, morale problem. Just because Putin claim this is now Russian land does not make Russian suddenly want to fight for those land, which is evidenced that even a Partial Mobilisation with reserve troop spawn into a massive protest and exodus.
I have explained in detail according to my Knowledge of how NATO works for the years I work for NATO command, what they will do when Russia send a Tactical Nuclear Device to any big city in Ukraine, like Kyiv, Kharkiv or Lviv. Believe it or not is up to you
I will tell you what US and EU WILL do if and when Russia nuke Kyiv with a 20-50kt tactical nuclear device.
First of all, there are going to be EU or NATO peacekeeper in and around Kyiv, that's a given. That's 100% it will happen
Then high chance (between 70-90%) NATO will enforce a no-fly zone to stop every air traffic in Ukraine. That's highly likely in order to contain the nuclear fallout.
Medium chance (about 50-60%) NATO will enact a peacemaking mission, declaring all Russian force within pre-2022 or 2014 border as legitimate target. And will deploy troop and air asset on the ground and pound the Russian force in Ukraine international border, every target will be destroyed. That is done so NATO can insert peacekeeper to enforce border security between Ukraine and Russia and stop the ongoing conflict. Stop the conflict from getting further out of hand.
Low chance (Between 20% to 40%) NATO will fly into Russia and destroy strategic target or nuclear capable target, also known as "Full Count" to stop further nuclear escalation.
What Russia will do is either take lost in Ukraine, or escalate to global nuclear option, as long as NATO does not have ground intrusion into Russia, this is highly unlikely to happen.
Problem is, once you use a tactical nuclear device, then NATO have to intervene. Because either NATO did not do anything, and Russia will use the same trick on other country, or even NATO member, and second, most likely the radioactive fallout will float into Poland and Poland will initiate Article 5. So NATO are going to do something, as far as I know from what I served in NATO capacity, those are the option they have.
4.) Almost all military aid package are pre-planned (ie the draw down, and the lend least coming into effect in October) It will not likely for politican to go back on those planning with a referendum result, which mean there are going to stteady supplies of Western Arms at least until deep into Next June.
And any objective analyst will tell you Referendum is not actually showing Russian strength to the position of this war, rather, it shows that Russia is getting desperate because they believe or at least want to believe, if they annexed those land then hostility will stop, it just won't because the war in the Ukrainian side is power by two things. 1.) Kick the Russian out, that's their motivation. 2.) Western Support. Both of which are unlikely to stop even after these "Referendum". In fact, it would most likely going the other way, which legitimate Crimea into Ukrainian target list because it will be the same status as other "annexed" territories.
That's my honest assessment on the ground situation, this is as if Think Tank want to commission me for my thought, believe it, don't believe it, it is up to you, and I guess we will find out in 4 days.
www.nato.int
www.theguardian.com
