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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2


Seems the russians managed a more comprehensive and capable defence then expected after digging in for 6 months there, while ukraine has too little material/experience to perform a proper combined arms breakthrough. Especially up against vast minefields.

Its turned into a slog.
Some positives is that russia is losing a lot as well, and seems to be losing the artillery edge.

@jhungary do you still predict a breakthrough late fall? Im starting to think we should prepare for mostly fixed frontlines till next year spring.

Ukraine abandoned what it was taught like 1 week into the offensive and chose an attritional approach instead. Russia is losing an enormous amount of equipment but this approach turns the offensive into a slog.

It’s partly Ukraines fault and partly not. The reality is the US is the only country that can do combined arms maneuver at scale.

Lack of air power and millions of Russian mines are by far the biggest problems for Ukraine.
 

War arrives on Putin's doorstep: Huge explosion tears through Russian defence plant near Moscow as drone attack targets the capital


 
This war is not going anywhere for Ukraine. All their counter offensives have failed. Bulk of $100 billion military aid to Zelensky has failed to make any headway. They have not recovered an inch of land which the Russians have occupied. In fact, this war of US/ NATO has failed to demolish Russia which was the America’s objective. In the process thousand upon thousands of Ukrainians are dead.

Hence, what is the point? Will it not be better to settle out with the Russia and US/NATO withdraw out of it?

Remove Zelensky first.
 

Wow - that location is east of Moscow !!!

This war is not going anywhere for Ukraine. All their counter offensives have failed. Bulk of $100 billion military aid to Zelensky has failed to make any headway. They have not recovered an inch of land which the Russians have occupied. In fact, this war of US/ NATO has failed to demolish Russia which was the America’s objective. In the process thousand upon thousands of Ukrainians are dead.

Hence, what is the point? Will it not be better to settle out with the Russia and US/NATO withdraw out of it?

Remove Zelensky first.

This war has just started - it will go on for years. Wars ared about attrition of the economy, military capability and intent and until either of those change to force Russia's withdrawl from all of Ukraine - then this will go on until it does.
 

This war is not going anywhere for Ukraine. All their counter offensives have failed. Bulk of $100 billion military aid to Zelensky has failed to make any headway. They have not recovered an inch of land which the Russians have occupied. In fact, this war of US/ NATO has failed to demolish Russia which was the America’s objective. In the process thousand upon thousands of Ukrainians are dead.

Hence, what is the point? Will it not be better to settle out with the Russia and US/NATO withdraw out of it?

Remove Zelensky first.

What ?

deokupatsiya.jpg


Oh sorry I forgot
Capture d'écran 2023-08-09 163051.png
 
Do you see Russian jets flying over Kyiv and having a field day above well-protected spaces?

What is stopping Russia from wiping out massed Ukrainian formations near the front lines with jets?

So much for Russia having a field day with Poland-level defenses and destroying thousands of vehicles.

Mark my words: Russia cannot defeat NATO-backed Poland in war, cannot even breach its borders.

Polish air defence is much better as well.
Russian missiles will be shot down.

Read following post to understand why Ukraine could be invaded:


US is able penetrate well-defended spaces with its incredible stealth attack platforms. This is how US was able to shatter integrated defenses of Iraq in 1991 and Yugoslavia in 1999. Russia does not have this capability.
Lmao what a troll
Poland non existent air defence is famous with memes all around Poland
R1GKffmro1ztf2GW.jpg


Belarus already breached the Polish border by two helicopters, Polish MoD were denying it for a whole day until photos and videos emerged of the helis from Polish citizen where the helis were flying above the polish village Bialowieża.

Poland right now is nowhere near the level of military it was before the 2022, half of the military(hardware) is in Ukraine, it will be years before we will have the power similar to before 2022, and it will be even more years until we will have a functioning air defence, which we never had after 1989.
 

Seems the russians managed a more comprehensive and capable defence then expected after digging in for 6 months there, while ukraine has too little material/experience to perform a proper combined arms breakthrough. Especially up against vast minefields.

Its turned into a slog.
Some positives is that russia is losing a lot as well, and seems to be losing the artillery edge.

@jhungary do you still predict a breakthrough late fall? Im starting to think we should prepare for mostly fixed frontlines till next year spring.
I still predicting a breakthrough late fall between August and September.

I wanted to say this tho, by breakthrough, I didn't mean Ukraine can take back Crimea or even break the land bridge and went all the way to Berdiansk or Mariupol or even Melitopol, but rather breakthrough from Russia main defensive line in the south or East, it's actually closer than we think but it would still take time to have any result.

We need to understand, even for a seasoned force like we do, it would take months if not year to mount a counter offensive on an entrenched position to cover the area the size Ukraine need to recover, it's always going to be a long and drawn out affair, and as I stated 200 post ago (I don't know how many post ago but it's a very long time) the only real perspective to end this war is always on the negotiation table. What Ukraine need to do is to improve their battlefield position for a better outcome in the negotiation. Russia are dug in, the problem with being dug in means they have transitioned from an offensive force into defense. There are no real prospect for Russia to further their gain because what they made for the defensive of their own frontline would come back to impede their own progress when they are attacking and Ukraine is defending because Russia would need to go thru the same obstacle they made, so you kind of know and more importantly, seems like Russian themselves also know that they had culminated.

Which mean Ukraine position would be seriously improved if that main defensive line was broken, they may not need to go all the way to Berdiansk or Mariupol as I said before, but those damage would be done, and that would make Russia position untenable. Which is what Ukraine should be looking at this year
 
not hart at the time of iran iraq war our expert also could go to a mortar or cannon landing site and say from where it launched, but what was the use , the important thing is doing it in time and your counter battery radar is useless , the atgm fly under their minimum detection height and the lancet won't use a ballistic trajectory
You don't need counter battery if you have gunship and fast air, Ukraine lacked both, that's why COUNTBAT is important for them. For Poland, you have at least 300 ready to fly aircraft from in and around Poland ready to get in and drop their ordinance, it could expand to 1000 if they need from allies such as US, Canada.

And you don't just pick up missile profile nowadays, not even when I was running TOC back in 2005. You have a complementary of SIGNIT, THERINT, SATINT, ELINT and different kind of sensor, every discharge comes with all sort of signature you can trace, be it thermal, noise, trajectory or even Satellite imaging. For example, NASA FIRMS system can pick up fires in real time anywhere in the world using Satellite and Geological Data.


While I can't tell you what kind of signature monitoring capability we use in the military, I can tell you this, in Afghanistan, I was once involved in an operation in which we track and follow a target by the cigarette he is smoking, do you honestly think we can't track someone using ATGM or Drone in a build up area? Once you launch your platform, it would be picked up.

I mean, we aren't that stupid when someone fire a ATGM or someone launch a drone and we don't even know where to look, even if we don't know where that came from we would still have a general direction, again, unless the Russian bring along Aviation Asset, it's impossible anyone can exfil faster than NATO putting up asset and hunt you down, you can of course believe what you want to believe. Especially you need to be quite close to deploy both platform, you have around 3 to 4 km range on ATGM and you can only launch a drone with max 40 minutes flight time, which translate to less than 15 KM away from your target, it's a very small search grid in case you are wondering.

On the other hand, I would even think Wagner does not process LRRP or LRIP capability like this, it takes a US Army Special Force Reconnaissance Team ~28 months training to do both, and I went thru the Paratrooper Pathfinder program after Ranger School, and I don't even consider I am proficient to pull LRRP like this. And you are saying Wagner group, who now resorted to recruit from jail, can go in and out of a hostile country with advance detection capabilities, without being notice? I don't even think the original Wagner can pull this off, let alone prisoner Wagner....

Do you see Russian jets flying over Kyiv and having a field day above well-protected spaces?

What is stopping Russia from wiping out massed Ukrainian formations near the front lines with jets?

So much for Russia having a field day with Poland-level defenses and destroying thousands of vehicles.

Mark my words: Russia cannot defeat NATO-backed Poland in war, cannot even breach its borders.

Polish air defence is much better as well. Russian missiles will be shot down.

Read following post to understand why Ukraine could be invaded:


US is able penetrate well-defended spaces with its incredible stealth attack platforms. This is how US was able to shatter integrated defenses of Iraq in 1991 and Yugoslavia in 1999. Russia does not have this capability.
It is entirely stupid if Russia want to invade Poland using Wagner. And this would benefit Ukraine a lot, like ALOT if this actually do happen.

Set aside whether or not Russia has enough people to do that, Poland would most definitely involve in Ukraine directly if Russia is using Belarus to f with the Pole. The pole will pay them back by using Ukraine to F with the Russian, and this is the last thing the Russian need.

Belarus can say these are Wagner and it have nothing to do with them or Russia, Poland can also organise some militia group and arm them with Jet and Helicopter and tell Russia those are Militia and it have nothing to do with them.
 
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fact:
Wasting trillions on the tax cut for the rich based on trickle down economics hoax.

Fact:
Wanting to spend even more on bloated military while US infrastructure is crumbling

Fact: But god forbid if you need a penny to support an european democratic ally??
(And stop an emboldened russia).


not a good image. But please, stuff that american flag in your ears a bit more.
Fact: Not a single Biden policy has helped the average American

Fact: Biden stands no chance if he even makes it to election time before being impeached

Fact: Europe has milked America dry for decades, I’ve discussed this previously and the majority of American’s agree with Trump it should stop. Look at the polls .

So as I’ve said it’s far time for Europe to stand on their two feet, especially Germany (what a joke they have become)
 

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