Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627788296590970881

Another day of huge Russian losses

 

[jhungary]

I agree. I think the struggle of the Ukrainian man on the frontline is just and tragic. Break my heart to see men die in the way they do. I think the crooks in Kiev were Simps not for their own people but for external interests and personal benefit. It is not always prudent or smart to wage war no matter who cheerleads you.

If someone pushes you to war (cliff) does not mean you do it.
It would have been far better to establish some level of autonomy for Eastern Ukraine within the Ukrainian nation.
Then buy time to bring legislative changes, develop stronger economy, take on a neutral position, give Russia a sense of calmness, and slowly develop the country while balancing between East and West and be a bridge for both those poles.

That approach would have served everyone's interests. Now it serves the interest of the military industrial complex and cheap politicians in the West and even Putin's own retrenchment on power in some ways. Western politicians have failed to provide for Western societies so they are running around scaring their own populations of the next boogeyman, while raping and plundering their own wealth in line with special interests. The Western political system is failing and only survives on the basis now of cultural wars (within their own systems) and hatred for the others globally.

Well, but then if someone invade your home, that's not up to you anymore, there are only 3 choices, fight back, roll over or leave. I can stay here and debate you negotiation or works are better than war for the rest of time, but this does not ignore the fact that someone had chosen war, and that person is not you.

It's one thing to fight, another thing to fight for what you believe in, and then another thing for your own existence, as long as there are Ukrainian who don't see themselves as Russian, this fight is going to continue.

Many people, including you keep talking about western society or western political system, the thing is, all these things that started is because of the East, and this is a very simply fact of someone invading my home, East or West political system or belief aside, I am going to fight back.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

Well, but then if someone invade your home, that's not up to you anymore, there are only 3 choices, fight back, roll over or leave. I can stay here and debate you negotiation or works are better than war for the rest of time, but this does not ignore the fact that someone had chosen war, and that person is not you.

It's one thing to fight, another thing to fight for what you believe in, and then another thing for your own existence, as long as there are Ukrainian who don't see themselves as Russian, this fight is going to continue.

Many people, including you keep talking about western society or western political system, the thing is, all these things that started is because of the East, and this is a very simply fact of someone invading my home, East or West political system or belief aside, I am going to fight back.

Okay lets take for a minute your argument is correct.

Would you then support that Iraqi insurgency against the Western military forces was a just cause and the West was immoral and wrong in that invasion, and hence some of their leaders should tried as war criminals?
This is not a gotcha question. I really want to understand and see your level of consistency in this argument.

 

[jhungary]

I agree with your analysis. I think the option above you sight is a third of the likely scenario.
The second is a continuing grind it out stalemate with incremental wins and losses on both end, but on net basis stagnant.
The third option is that the Ukrainian's have a harder and harder time to bring battle ready formations. After all it is the Ukrainian counter offensive that has ground down to a stalemate. Keep in mind Russian offensive brought them to the outskirts of Kiev. Then Ukr counter offensive saw some massive regains. Then a halt. Why did that halt happen? I think it happened because the front-line was too broad/spread and CF could have been flanked, hence Ukrs slowed down. This gave Russians the time to re-orient themselves with better more defensible lines and you have the situation we find. Ukr is having a hard time pushing Russia further back at this point.
In terms of Western gear - the Ukr have a free flow of Western gear. 88 Tanks or 300 tanks are not likely to turn the battle in any meaningful way.
If I were a betting person I think we are likely to continue to see a stalemate. With limited shift. At some point between now and a few weeks from now - Russia will attempt some pushes. I think they'll make some modest gains but will fail in a major outbreak.
The Ukrs will get their 30-40K NATO trained fighting formations ready by Summer. We'll see a late summer push by the Ukrainians this time with more NATO gear and tanks. This will have an effect with some gains but there too I think it will be partial. I think we are likely to see a bigger mobilization by Russia by Summer time if their Spring offensive grounds down or a serious effort at armistice and peace agreement.

Then you need to look at how war subsist in Russian and Ukrainian society.

War has been or already been the norm for the Ukrainian since 2014, Ukrainian live with there is an ongoing war happened inside their home, some place they can't go, and they are conscious about that fact since 2014. Russia see this war on TV, it don't really matter to them that much beside Sanction and occasionally missile/drone attack deep inside Russian territories, they didn't wake up knowing part of their country is at war with another.

Why I bring this up? Mentality is a very important issue here for a long drawn out war, which is this war going to be. It's like when US are in Iraq or Afghanistan, people there are going to be more involved than the People in the US, sooner or later, the American people don't really care for those war, and that loses support, and then the war ends. You can't keep on an interest no matter how much money you can dump in that burn pit, and when you compare it to Ukraine-Russia situation, this is largely the same, unless Russia is going to send generation after generation of men to pacify the Ukrainian, and continue to pump money and resource the Russian do not have on this war, it's always not going to end with Russian favor.

On the other hand, Ukrainian is committed, it's their country, they are going nowhere, and as long as Weapon keep flowing and people keep supporting their clause, they are going to continue, while I can't say whether the West will keep on this type of support Ukrainian is getting in the next 5 years, but as long as there is a war going on in their land, people in Ukraine is going to keep supporting the war.

This war, as I mentioned many time, is going to end by negotiation, and most likely with Ukraine receiving NATO membership or security guarantee by NATO. The problem is, for NATO, they may as well let Ukraine join, I mean, they already shared the intel, largely using NATO equipment in all spectrum, virtually the only thing NATO had not gave Ukraine is fighter plane and warships, otherwise there are really not much different between Ukraine and any NATO member, would NATO be okay with Ukraine going back to Russia camp? Or worse, going to Chinese Camp if they abandoned the Russian? With all those NATO equipment in Ukraine, that would be a huge loss to NATO...I don't think that's likely.

Okay lets take for a minute your argument is correct.

Would you then support that Iraqi insurgency against the Western military forces was a just cause and the West was immoral and wrong in that invasion, and hence some of their leaders should tried as war criminals?

The thing is, I understand why Iraqi insurgency fight, that does not mean I support it. If Canada invaded US, if you are Canadian, would you "support" American Insurgency?

Supporting is one thing, whether people understand the will to fight is another.

Again, this is not about the east or the west for the Ukrainian, if help come from China, do you think Ukraine will not take it??

 

[The SC]

As President Biden visits Ukraine..the Russians cross the borders with Ukraine..

 

[Corax]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1626918823570833408

The US formally announces Russia has committed crimes against humanity.

Unfortunately there's no one to hold the US accountable for its crimes against humanity.

 

[Paul2]

Unless the eastern Ukraine ethnic population is not considered as untermensch and unless they are recognized as humans that have rights by western countries this conflict will continue.

Minsk 3 maybe after Putin would be a solution for Ukraine terrotorial integrity in exchange of easing sanctions to Russia. For Crimea it is like Kosovo maybe another referandum can be made with independent observers. Ukraine lost it when Timoshenko called for taking out the Russian speakers in 2014 and there were etnic mass killings in Donbass region. First step should be ceasefire ofcourse.

The conflict will continue until UA tanks will roll on the Red Square

 

[Paul2]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627751651489550357

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627755249988472841

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627754361244815360

One loss category which seems to not to be noticed by anybody is engineering equipment, and how irreplaceable it is.

Russians, as I understood, never produced any new engineering vehicles since 1991, unlike tanks, which are a big name item, which can be exported. They just likely thought they will never run out of it, since USSR has left them mountains of it.

Now, they are very short on bridging, trenching, and recovery vehicles according to UA intel intercepts, and have to abandon tanks which got stuck, or have to wait for a recovery unit for days.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

One loss category which seems to not to be noticed by anybody is engineering equipment, and how irreplaceable it is.

Russians, as I understood, never produced any new engineering vehicles since 1991, unlike tanks, which are a big name item, which can be exported. They just likely thought they will never run out of it, since USSR has left them mountains of it.

Now, they are very short on bridging, trenching, and recovery vehicles according to UA intel intercepts, and have to abandon tanks which got stuck, or have to wait for a recovery unit for days.

You are hundred percent right. Many of these images we also see of Russian Tanks and BMPs etc., are classic examples of equipment failure (with poor logistic for extraction and repair). With shifting lines this equipment is often left in rushed stage. This has often resulted in a Russian leaving their gear behind. Then comes in a miraculous Drone with a little frag grenade that drops one through an open hatch. And you have a tik tok video, or a youtube short and people cheerlead Ukraine and the dumb Europeans to more war. Humans are truly mad.

 

[vizier]

The conflict will continue until UA tanks will roll on the Red Square

If Russia declares war today with Putin speech that would force western countries into war economy as well. Also it would be harder for Russian allies like China to give support without taking sides with official war declaration. I doubt that would happen.It would be mistake if war is declared. Otherwise it would get harder to convince citizens of western countries to pay for the war effort continiously.

Also Russia still has advantages east of Dnieper river. They cant take out supply lines from Poland Romania into Ukraine but they can take out bridges over Dnieper river with fast missiles like iskandar and longer range dagger missiles. They can also saturate Ukr sam defenses in the east with drones locating and taking them out with precision missiles after supplies are cut. It would get harder for Ukraine each day although Russia will continue to pay huge price. Both sides grind each other maybe that is what is planned by Usa

Lets see what Chinese peace plan is and would it have appeal to both sides.

 

[Viet]

I am blown away at the one-sided posting on this forum. I think it does the Ukrainians a dis-service when people just cheerlead propaganda. Ukraine's losses are mind numbing. Dropping a grenade on an idle tank, with an open hatch is not a winning strategy. It is a simple propaganda meant to make people believe in a lie that somehow Ukraine is winning this war (in order to continue the flow of dollars and poor men to the front). Russian is grinding whatever is left of Ukrainian men. I have to give them (Ukrainians) my greatest respect on how they fight, it is truly commendable, but these men are being lost due to the corruption/racism/greed of some Elites within Ukraine and the West's rapacious desire to create trouble everywhere. The West is masterful in sowing hatred among brothers. No one should buy that Ukraine is winning. Russia is advancing and will reach a point in a few weeks where they will have the ability to break out onto the plains. The real question now is whether they can breakout before the thaw, and also how many innocents will be lead to slaughter by greed.

the war is then over if Putin withdraws the invasion army. Think about that for few seconds. Other than that is just worthless propaganda shit.

 

[Viet]

Russia plans to take over Belarus.
Putin seems not to happy with Lukashenko. Lukashenko himself doesn’t trust Russia too much he orders the establishment of a voluntary territorial defense army of 100,000-150,000 men modeled after Ukraine territorial defense army.
Meanwhile China blames everyone everywhere but Russia for the escalation of the conflict.
China doesn’t say “war”.

Ukraine-Überblick: China warnt vor Eskalation, Belarus will eine Freiwilligenarmee

Russland hat einem Bericht zufolge einen Plan für die Übernahme von Belarus bis zum Jahr 2030. China ruft zur Deeskalation in der Ukraine auf. Die Nacht

www.zeit.de

Ukrainische Soldaten bei einer Übung nahe der Grenze zu Belarus © Sergei Supinksy/AFP/Getty Images
(Ukraine army at an exercise near Belarus border)

 

[Mohsin A]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627944349299343361

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627923334783545344

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627939842637148165

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627979109446852612

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627940548513333248

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627897378828328960

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627993039846121474