Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[A.P. Richelieu]

oh so that's the meaning of rule based world , if you are friend with European and Uncle Sam you c
an gas civillian , if you are not their friend no international treaty or law protect you and my link clearly stated that European hiding the shipping manifests

Or - Iran did not have the proof you claim they have.

Hiding shipping manifests can be done for a variety of reasons.
One of them is that shipment is breaking the law.
”Europe” is not responsible for when criminals are breaking the law, even if the criminals are European.
It is responsible for prosecuting and convicting criminals.

And still, noone shipped Chemical Weapons to Iraq.

So I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that men are being led to slaughter.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say Russia is grinding Ukrainian men and material. Yes Russia has massive losses too but has the capacity to withstand that over the longer run.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that the Minsk accord sabotaged by the a small group in the West was the way to settle this.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that NATO expansion is the cause belli for this war, and Russian security guarantees should have been considered.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say I am respectful of Ukrainian resolve and bravery, and that their deaths are tragic.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that Russian onslaught will be taking on a new level of seriousness and lethality that Ukraine has not seen since the beginning of the war.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that in the end this ends on a negotiating table, and whenever we think of loosing one more Ukrainian and Russian it is sad that they will die between now and then.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say that infrastructurally Ukraine has been destroyed as a nation.
I am parroting Russian propaganda when I say only people to benefit in this war is the monied interests in the Military Industrial Complex.
USA, Russia, Europe, UK - no one benefits from this war. Only the select Military Industrial complex in Western capitals and China are beneficiaries of this.
If you want to jump off the cliff simply because of your own hubris, be my guest.

Bullseye!

 

[TigerOfMysore]

You forgot this “I have to give them (Ukrainians) my greatest respect on how they fight, it is truly commendable, but these men are being lost due to the corruption/racism/greed of some Elites within Ukraine and the West's rapacious desire to create trouble everywhere. The West is masterful in sowing hatred among brothers.” .. Which basically was the entire agenda of your post - blame the West, eventhough its obvious Russia is the only reason Ukraine is facing hardship. Russia has been preparing for this for decades, destabilizing Ukraine, feeding corruption, instigating unrest, supporting “seperatists” with russian soldiers, spoonfeeding the russian population with anti ukrainian and anti western retoric and the rewriting of history in order to justifying an invasion.

And people like you simply bought it because: my enemys enemy is my friend. The West doesnt like it, lets pretend we believe this russian narrative.

It is not a Russian narrative.

These are facts parroted by those in the West too. Now you'll call that Russian propaganda too. Anything that does not fit your perfectly stitched story becomes Russian propaganda. Russia is not a saint and has aspirations that are not a simple state aspirations. Russia is playing big power politics driving its narrative. But to argue that the other side is not is to simply put your head in the sand and not acknowledge basic reality and facts.

Minsk accords were the best way forward. Even the Ukrainians more or less agreed to it. It was the UK and US that scuttled it.

The notion that Russia has no right to say anything regarding Ukraine is similar to the US not following the Monroe Doctrine in the Western hemisphere. Watch how the US behaves if China starts training Mexican soldiers. US had an issue with Argentine buying Pakistani jets because they are co-developed with China. How is it that the US has the right to expect complete supplication of an entire hemisphere thousands of miles away from its capital in the South of America. But Russia should have nothing to say or affect in a country that has had historical ties on its border. That level of hypocrisy speaks only to a level of hubris and mental pathology that warrants hospitalization.

The Russian notion that Ukraine is not an independent nation with its own culture and history is wrong. But what is also wrong is to say that Ukrainian history and culture it completely disconnected to Russia.

Russia is not the only reason why Ukraine is facing hardship. Yes if your timeline starts in Feb of 2022 I agree with you (I'll even go back to 2014 - which was a wrong and illegal move by Russia). But if you were honest about this discussion you'll agree that this timeline starts with the collapse of USSR and the subsequent expansion of NATO in 2 distinct rounds. And that to not look at that context or the fact that NATO was actively training one infantry Ukrainian battalion every month for years now, is being dishonest.

I for one will not say that Russia is a saint. I will also not say that the West played a de-escalatory roll, which includes the Orange revolution. The West especially the UK and US with this one master stroke think they got exactly what they want. A cheap war to grind Russia (with Ukrainian lives), eroding Putin's power and bring a wedge between Russia and Europe (especially around energy) and eventually make Russia a weak partner of China. What is happening in Europe is shaping of the ground for the main war. And that war happens in Far East Asia and South China.

In the process the poor Ukrainians (and their lives) and by extension the European economy can be damned, which is the only tragedy in this entire fiasco.

On a personal level I have a soft spot for Ukrainians. I have Ukrainian friends and have always liked them because of their strong military links and support of Pakistan. And this is exactly why what is happening to Ukraine is painful. At the same time I am not a fool to buy any cheap BS narrative that is peddled by either side.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627773368467443724

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627773776137015304

 

[jhungary]

I am blown away at the one-sided posting on this forum. I think it does the Ukrainians a dis-service when people just cheerlead propaganda. Ukraine's losses are mind numbing. Dropping a grenade on an idle tank, with an open hatch is not a winning strategy. It is a simple propaganda meant to make people believe in a lie that somehow Ukraine is winning this war (in order to continue the flow of dollars and poor men to the front). Russian is grinding whatever is left of Ukrainian men. I have to give them (Ukrainians) my greatest respect on how they fight, it is truly commendable, but these men are being lost due to the corruption/racism/greed of some Elites within Ukraine and the West's rapacious desire to create trouble everywhere. The West is masterful in sowing hatred among brothers. No one should buy that Ukraine is winning. Russia is advancing and will reach a point in a few weeks where they will have the ability to break out onto the plains. The real question now is whether they can breakout before the thaw, and also how many innocents will be lead to slaughter by greed.

These people died because someone attacked their country. Not because of corruption/racism/greed. You need to make that clear. It doesn't really matter how corrupt I think my government was, it was NOT for your government to say I can use it to invade your country

These people are fighting back a Russian aggression which bend on eliminating them from existence, think about it if this was your home, someone attack you because what he think he is entitled to, would you lay down because your country is corrupted? Or would you fight back?

Russia is going no where, Bakhmut is their best bet now, and that had stalled for 2 weeks now (well, actually 8 months), they took Soledar back in Early January, it's almost end of February and end of Winter, they still can't take Bakhmut and they were actually being pushed back from Kremina

 

[Ali_Baba]

Tbh - frankly speaking after the US ditched France - Australia Submarine $90 Billion deal to FAIL - France lost 400k jobs in its local market over this deal. Obviously France was going to be soft with Russia.

400,000 jobs for some French submarines - no way ...

 

[jhungary]

Here is a perfect example of false info.
If anyone understands the Bakhmut battle - Russia is not throwing everything at it. The active frontline is over 600 miles long and Russia is engaged all along. There are two areas where there is a concentration and Bakhmut is not one of them.

In Bakhmut the primary force from the Russian side is Wagner - not even the regular forces. Bkahmut has been a slog. The Russian's withdrew from this town and established firing lines. Then they waited for the Ukrainians to flood this area. At this point once Ukrainian concentration was established the Russian from their reasonably well defended positions and on the basis of an almost 4-1 artillery advantage, dueled it out. Ukraine suffered massive casualties perhaps nearly 4000 men. Russia did not do a frontal assault. They kept grinding Ukrainian asset in and around Bakhmut.

At this point they have more or less surrounded Bakhmut from 3 sides, leaving one killing zone open to allow for more resources in, which the Ukrainians obliged for some time. At some point Ukrainians realized this failure of tactic, after horrendous losses and have now more or less moved out. Russia is in no rush to move in. They are trying to develop kill zones like Bakhmut all along the frontline.

This is the type of mind-numbing propaganda that is killing the poor Ukrainians.

Your entire assumption is wrong, no offence

Russia can't attack the entire frontline, that's 1260km from end to end, even with 1 million troop, you need them stand shoulder to should to cover a single layer (1.26meter apart). Russia have to pick a point to break thru, and they tried that in the South near Vuhledar. And they also tried to break out toward Kupiansk.

Vuhledar went to shit, video showing they had lost around 50 Armour trying to take it, Kupiansk have some success

On the other hand, Russia needs to take Bakhmut if they want to threaten Kramatosk/Sloviansk, because they lose the Lyman line, they have focused their majority of firepower (estimate 50 BTG) in the area, and they lost almost half taking on 3 Brigade of Ukrainian defender, Wagner themselves lost 30000 troop just trying to take Bakhmut (Lost = WIA+KIA), that's almost 3 times the defender in Bakhmut. Ukraine knows that, they use the Bakhmut river as an anchoring point and try to extract as much casualty Russia have as possible, notice that they can withdraw anytime they want, and leaving Bakhmut as a ruin for the Russian, there are no incentive to defend Bakhmut, I mean there are 6 or more defensive line between Bakhmut and the Kramatosk/Sloviansk. Those would be better defensive position because once Russia taken Bakhmut, that area would become a bulge for the Russian, they are going to face Ukrainian on the 3 sides.

Russia, not Ukrainian, is the one that is suffering in Bakhmut, most estimate suggested that at this point ((well, pretty much by march anyway) if Russia suffer the same casualty rate now, Russian offensive will be blunted and culiminated simply because of the loss they suffer, even if they took Bakhmut (which is unlikely) they would not have enough troop to threaten the next defensive line, let alone Kramatosk/Sloviansk

400,000 jobs for some French submarines - no way ...

I don't think the entire France Military Industry employ 400,000 jobs...That's LM + Boeing + GM combine....

By the way, those sub were supposed to build in Australia, I doubt they would lost anything to begin with, and we pay 4 billions for a project that was supposed to be costing only 40, and get nothing in return, how dare the French think they were the victim here....

 

[TigerOfMysore]

These people died because someone attacked their country. Not because of corruption/racism/greed. You need to make that clear. It doesn't really matter how corrupt I think my government was, it was NOT for your government to say I can use it to invade your country

These people are fighting back a Russian aggression which bend on eliminating them from existence, think about it if this was your home, someone attack you because what he think he is entitled to, would you lay down because your country is corrupted? Or would you fight back?

Russia is going no where, Bakhmut is their best bet now, and that had stalled for 2 weeks now (well, actually 8 months), they took Soledar back in Early January, it's almost end of February and end of Winter, they still can't take Bakhmut and they were actually being pushed back from Kremina

I agree. I think the struggle of the Ukrainian man on the frontline is just and tragic. Break my heart to see men die in the way they do. I think the crooks in Kiev were Simps not for their own people but for external interests and personal benefit (as a Pakistani I am all too familiar of this kind - it plagues our nation). It is not always prudent or smart to wage war no matter who cheerleads you.

If someone pushes you to war (cliff) does not mean you do it.
It would have been far better to establish some level of autonomy for Eastern Ukraine within the Ukrainian nation.
Then buy time to bring legislative changes, develop stronger economy, take on a neutral position, give Russia a sense of calmness, and slowly develop the country while balancing between East and West and be a bridge for both those poles. That option would have been best for the country and people of Ukraine. Not best for the UK/US efforts, but best for Ukraine.

That approach would have served everyone's interests. Now it serves the interest of the military industrial complex and cheap politicians in the West and even Putin's own retrenchment on power in some ways. Western politicians have failed to provide for Western societies so they are running around scaring their own populations of the next boogeyman, while raping and plundering their own wealth in line with special interests. The Western political system is failing and only survives on the basis now of cultural wars (within their own systems) and hatred for the others globally.

 

[Hack-Hook]

Or - Iran did not have the proof you claim they have.

Hiding shipping manifests can be done for a variety of reasons.
One of them is that shipment is breaking the law.
”Europe” is not responsible for when criminals are breaking the law, even if the criminals are European.
It is responsible for prosecuting and convicting criminals.

And still, noone shipped Chemical Weapons to Iraq.

yes not shipping chemical weapon.
just gave a device to saddam and give him agent A and Agent b and tell him put agent a and agent b in the device and the output would be something nasty.

by the way Iran had all the proof , I'm sure mods here won't appreciate it if i start posting hundreds of photo of the children exposed to those agents
and according to the article i post here the hiding the shipping manifest was done by Dutch official not some random criminal so , no the Europe was very well aware of what they were doing . iraq chemical weapon factory was not designed by Iraqi themself it was built by Europeans engineer and technicians and was financed by Europeans banks

 

[TigerOfMysore]

Your entire assumption is wrong, no offence

Russia can't attack the entire frontline, that's 1260km from end to end, even with 1 million troop, you need them stand shoulder to should to cover a single layer (1.26meter apart). Russia have to pick a point to break thru, and they tried that in the South near Vuhledar. And they also tried to break out toward Kupiansk.

Vuhledar went to shit, video showing they had lost around 50 Armour trying to take it, Kupiansk have some success

On the other hand, Russia needs to take Bakhmut if they want to threaten Kramatosk/Sloviansk, because they lose the Lyman line, they have focused their majority of firepower (estimate 50 BTG) in the area, and they lost almost half taking on 3 Brigade of Ukrainian defender, Wagner themselves lost 30000 troop just trying to take Bakhmut (Lost = WIA+KIA), that's almost 3 times the defender in Bakhmut. Ukraine knows that, they use the Bakhmut river as an anchoring point and try to extract as much casualty Russia have as possible, notice that they can withdraw anytime they want, and leaving Bakhmut as a ruin for the Russian, there are no incentive to defend Bakhmut, I mean there are 6 or more defensive line between Bakhmut and the Kramatosk/Sloviansk. Those would be better defensive position because once Russia taken Bakhmut, that area would become a bulge for the Russian, they are going to face Ukrainian on the 3 sides.

Russia, not Ukrainian, is the one that is suffering in Bakhmut, most estimate suggested that at this point ((well, pretty much by march anyway) if Russia suffer the same casualty rate now, Russian offensive will be blunted and culiminated simply because of the loss they suffer, even if they took Bakhmut (which is unlikely) they would not have enough troop to threaten the next defensive line, let alone Kramatosk/Sloviansk


I don't think the entire France Military Industry employ 400,000 jobs...That's LM + Boeing + GM combine....

By the way, those sub were supposed to build in Australia, I doubt they would lost anything to begin with, and we pay 4 billions for a project that was supposed to be costing only 40, and get nothing in return, how dare the French think they were the victim here....

I did not say they were pushing on the entire 1200km frontline. I said they are establishing kill zones and Bakhmut is one of them.
I also disagree that Russia is the one hurting in Bakhmut. There is too much fog of war to know who exactly is hurting. There is an equally slick narrative from the Russians that they are grinding the Ukrainians. The truth is possibly in the middle. I think both are being ground down. And in a mutual ground down scenario Russia will always come out on top. I think by the Summer Ukraine will have a hard time getting battle ready formations aligned. I do however think the Russians are missing on something. I think there is a a reservoir of resources currently undergoing training in the West. I think this will be a very capable and battle ready group. It will be around 40,000 men and resources who are likely to be ready by end of Summer. It will be this group that in the end will be the deciding catalyst of this entire war.
By fall on 2023: We have three of the following options:
1) A counter offensive by the Ukrainians that smashes through Russian lines and thereby forces Russians to readjust they lines further back.
2) Russians breaking through on one or two frontline points forcing the Ukrainians to readjust.
3) Either one of the above offensives grinding down and resulting in a stalemate causing for a continuation of current type of warfare.
Given the above I force this war continuing on into 2024 spring - at which point all sides would be exhausted and look for negotiations.
The big question mark is whether China decides to put its finger on the weighing scale. If that happens all bets are off.

 

[Solidify]

400,000 jobs for some French submarines - no way ...

The Original deal was worth $90 Billions with France but America interfered in the middle of deal offered Australia instead.

Australia settles French submarine bill as total cost blows out to $3.4 billion

The Australian government will pay French shipbuilder Naval Group $835 million in compensation, after last year's decision to tear up a $90-billion contract to build 12 submarines.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jhungary]

I did not say they were pushing on the entire 1200km frontline. I said they are establishing kill zones and Bakhmut is one of them.
I also disagree that Russia is the one hurting in Bakhmut. There is too much fog of war to know who exactly is hurting. There is an equally slick narrative from the Russians that they are grinding the Ukrainians. The truth is possibly in the middle. I think both are being ground down. And in a mutual ground down scenario Russia will always come out on top. I think by the Summer Ukraine will have a hard time getting battle ready formations aligned. I do however think the Russians are missing on something. I think there is a a reservoir of resources currently undergoing training in the West. I think this will be a very capable and battle ready group. It will be around 40,000 men and resources who are likely to be ready by end of Summer. It will be this group that in the end will be the deciding catalyst of this entire war.

It's hurting Russia progress.

You don't need to know anything to know attacker always suffer more than the defender. Especially when you are talking about Urban Warfare.

The lost I mean is not the men and material lost, the lost I meant was the progress, Russia by attacking Bakhmut, diverted considerable resource from other front. It is not going to come out on top even if they took Bakhmut because it will have another defence line, then another, then another and then another before the next town.

There aren't going to any Russian offensive after this, Russia already sold the farm for this mobilisation, and people aren't stupid, if Russia start another round, people will start ask question why this supposedly short war lasted a year (and more) and require 2 mobilisation, there are not going to another one. And without mobilisation, Russia can't make offensive.

By fall on 2023: We have three of the following options:
1) A counter offensive by the Ukrainians that smashes through Russian lines and thereby forces Russians to readjust they lines further back.
2) Russians breaking through on one or two frontline points forcing the Ukrainians to readjust.
3) Either one of the above offensives grinding down and resulting in a stalemate causing for a continuation of current type of warfare.
Given the above I force this war continuing on into 2024 spring - at which point all sides would be exhausted and look for negotiations.
The big question mark is whether China decides to put its finger on the weighing scale. If that happens all bets are off.

The problem is, for any offensive, you need to take 5 step and prepare for 2 step backs because you are going to have to push to get as far as possible and then put man and material to stop the enemy from counter attacking, which you are going to be on the back of a fight, which mean you need to trade space for time. This is evident when Russia took considerable area of land before being counter attack.

They aren't replicating their "Success", if you can call it that, they did back Feb 2022, which mean when the Western Equipment come into play, Russian line is going to be smashed if Ukraine indeed proficient on using those equipment, the problem is, now there are just two anchoring point for Russia before it went back to pre-2022 line. Melitopol and Svatove, if Russia loses both, they will be back to Pre-2022 line, and if Ukraine progress further, they are looking at a roll back on Pre-2014 line. And most military analyst would agree, Russia did not gain enough ground to protect their gain so that won't happen, and unless Russia suddenly did a very good job in the field, that is not going to happen.

 

[MeFishToo]

It is not a Russian narrative.

These are facts parroted by those in the West too. Now you'll call that Russian propaganda too. Anything that does not fit your perfectly stitched story becomes Russian propaganda. Russia is not a saint and has aspirations that are not a simple state aspirations. Russia is playing big power politics driving its narrative. But to argue that the other side is not is to simply put your head in the sand and not acknowledge basic reality and facts.

Minsk accords were the best way forward. Even the Ukrainians more or less agreed to it. It was the UK and US that scuttled it.

The notion that Russia has no right to say anything regarding Ukraine is similar to the US not following the Monroe Doctrine in the Western hemisphere. Watch how the US behaves if China starts training Mexican soldiers. US had an issue with Argentine buying Pakistani jets because they are co-developed with China. How is it that the US has the right to expect complete supplication of an entire hemisphere thousands of miles away from its capital in the South of America. But Russia should have nothing to say or affect in a country that has had historical ties on its border. That level of hypocrisy speaks only to a level of hubris and mental pathology that warrants hospitalization.

The Russian notion that Ukraine is not an independent nation with its own culture and history is wrong. But what is also wrong is to say that Ukrainian history and culture it completely disconnected to Russia.

Russia is not the only reason why Ukraine is facing hardship. Yes if your timeline starts in Feb of 2022 I agree with you (I'll even go back to 2014 - which was a wrong and illegal move by Russia). But if you were honest about this discussion you'll agree that this timeline starts with the collapse of USSR and the subsequent expansion of NATO in 2 distinct rounds. And that to not look at that context or the fact that NATO was actively training one infantry Ukrainian battalion every month for years now, is being dishonest.

I for one will not say that Russia is a saint. I will also not say that the West played a de-escalatory roll, which includes the Orange revolution. The West especially the UK and US with this one master stroke think they got exactly what they want. A cheap war to grind Russia (with Ukrainian lives), eroding Putin's power and bring a wedge between Russia and Europe (especially around energy) and eventually make Russia a weak partner of China. What is happening in Europe is shaping of the ground for the main war. And that war happens in Far East Asia and South China.

In the process the poor Ukrainians (and their lives) and by extension the European economy can be damned, which is the only tragedy in this entire fiasco.

On a personal level I have a soft spot for Ukrainians. I have Ukrainian friends and have always liked them because of their strong military links and support of Pakistan. And this is exactly why what is happening to Ukraine is painful. At the same time I am not a fool to buy any cheap BS narrative that is peddled by either side.

If the US, UK, EU wanted a war they would have reacted back in 2014, but didnt. Insted Russia bought time for its build up of a modern armed force - or so they thought - everybody thought Russia would roll over Ukraine and no western country had the intention to intervene. Only after Ukraine proved itself capable of withstanding the russian preassure the West really started supporting Ukraine. Everything before that was minor help designed to give Ukraine the ability to wage an insurgency when Russia did an invasion.
The West, and especially Europe, was scared shitless of russian aggression while pretending war was something from the past reducing military spending to nothing. It didnt make any sense, just like the West hoping for a war in Ukraine doesnt make any sense either.

 

[Mohsin A]

Tomorrow will be very interesting with Putins speech. Will the Clown in Kiev get a reality check? Let's see

https://twitter.com/x/status/1627795018953150464

 

[Ali_Baba]

BBC NEWS Night just did a story suggesting that China is about to supply weapons to Russia as part of the visit of Chinese officials to Moscow this week. Any thoughts/ideas/views?

Could be a game changer for Russia if true..

Time will tell if this is all propaganda or not……

china sent a good former diplomat for the interview- resp china views well.

 

[TigerOfMysore]

It's hurting Russia progress.

You don't need to know anything to know attacker always suffer more than the defender. Especially when you are talking about Urban Warfare.

The lost I mean is not the men and material lost, the lost I meant was the progress, Russia by attacking Bakhmut, diverted considerable resource from other front. It is not going to come out on top even if they took Bakhmut because it will have another defence line, then another, then another and then another before the next town.

There aren't going to any Russian offensive after this, Russia already sold the farm for this mobilisation, and people aren't stupid, if Russia start another round, people will start ask question why this supposedly short war lasted a year (and more) and require 2 mobilisation, there are not going to another one. And without mobilisation, Russia can't make offensive.



The problem is, for any offensive, you need to take 5 step and prepare for 2 step backs because you are going to have to push to get as far as possible and then put man and material to stop the enemy from counter attacking, which you are going to be on the back of a fight, which mean you need to trade space for time. This is evident when Russia took considerable area of land before being counter attack.

They aren't replicating their "Success", if you can call it that, they did back Feb 2022, which mean when the Western Equipment come into play, Russian line is going to be smashed if Ukraine indeed proficient on using those equipment, the problem is, now there are just two anchoring point for Russia before it went back to pre-2022 line. Melitopol and Svatove, if Russia loses both, they will be back to Pre-2022 line, and if Ukraine progress further, they are looking at a roll back on Pre-2014 line. And most military analyst would agree, Russia did not gain enough ground to protect their gain so that won't happen, and unless Russia suddenly did a very good job in the field, that is not going to happen.

I agree with your analysis. I think the option above you sight is a third of the likely scenario.
The second is a continuing grind it out stalemate with incremental wins and losses on both end, but on net basis stagnant.
The third option is that the Ukrainian's have a harder and harder time to bring battle ready formations. After all it is the Ukrainian counter offensive that has ground down to a stalemate. Keep in mind Russian offensive brought them to the outskirts of Kiev. Then Ukr counter offensive saw some massive regains. Then a halt. Why did that halt happen? I think it happened because the front-line was too broad/spread and CF could have been flanked, hence Ukrs slowed down. This gave Russians the time to re-orient themselves with better more defensible lines and you have the situation we find. Ukr is having a hard time pushing Russia further back at this point.
In terms of Western gear - the Ukr have a free flow of Western gear. 88 Tanks or 300 tanks are not likely to turn the battle in any meaningful way.
If I were a betting person I think we are likely to continue to see a stalemate. With limited shift. At some point between now and a few weeks from now - Russia will attempt some pushes. I think they'll make some modest gains but will fail in a major outbreak.
The Ukrs will get their 30-40K NATO trained fighting formations ready by Summer. We'll see a late summer push by the Ukrainians this time with more NATO gear and tanks. This will have an effect with some gains but there too I think it will be partial. I think we are likely to see a bigger mobilization by Russia by Summer time if their Spring offensive grounds down or a serious effort at armistice and peace agreement.

If the US, UK, EU wanted a war they would have reacted back in 2014, but didnt. Insted Russia bought time for its build up of a modern armed force - or so they thought - everybody thought Russia would roll over Ukraine and no western country had the intention to intervene. Only after Ukraine proved itself capable of withstanding the russian preassure the West really started supporting Ukraine. Everything before that was minor help designed to give Ukraine the ability to wage an insurgency when Russia did an invasion.
The West, and especially Europe, was scared shitless of russian aggression while pretending war was something from the past reducing military spending to nothing. It didnt make any sense, just like the West hoping for a war in Ukraine doesnt make any sense either.

I respectfully disagree. Since 2014 NATO has been training Ukrainians for this exact scenario. That in large measure if why Ukraine has done so well. There has always been an expectation in the West that this will become a hot war.