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Reddit Post: The SAA, strategy, tactics, and equipment. A brief Overview

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I saw this write up by a Reddit poster and thought it was interesting enough to repost it here.

PART THREE: The SAA, strategy, tactics, and equipment. A brief Overview : syriancivilwar

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A HEADS UP I am a military historian (I have two degrees, Political Science and History with a specialization on 20th Century Military History) and I have a Juris Doctorate. The text below offers insight into the War in Syria, but not the whole picture. I am not an expert, and all input is appreciated.

This post was delayed several times, due to the changing situation on the ground as well as the difficulty researching the topic. Foreign fighters and assistance will be addressed in Part Four.

Also, don't down-vote peoples comments for disagreeing, no matter their affiliation. Vote Brigading is lame. This Thread is a valuable source of information and discussion for everyone. Lets not flood it with hateful shit.

  1. Shaping Operations, Strategic Pivots, and on the ground tactics.
The past five years have been a disaster for Syria, and a everyone on the ground have been struggling nonstop to come up with strategies to defeat their opponents. This war has ebbed and flowed, and both the Government and the Opposition have appeared on the cusp of winning more than once.

However, neither side can be accused of any sort of tactical or strategic grace. There have been countless massacres in suicidal frontal attacks, such as the horrendous SAA loses in Salma in 2012 attacking up hill against a dug in enemy, or the horrendous FSA losses at Al-Qusayr, where rebels launched a counter attack across open ground, unsupported, that was annihilated by MLRS systems and Hezbollah machine guns.

So it goes without saying, both sides lost tremendous sums of manpower and resources, especially early in the war, to horrible military command and control, poor officer command, and wholesale desertion. As the war dragged on and on, the SAA and NDF hemorrhaged men to the point where they could no longer hold the line everywhere, and the Opposition began to break their lines.

Its easy to forgot now, with the rapid gains by Loyalist forces and the SAA, that 10 months ago it appeared that the SAA was on the verge of disintegrating. It had just been hurled with tremendous loss from Jish Shingur and Idlib, and Latakia itself was under direct threat. However, things have changed. And a big reason why is Russian Strategic thinking, and that thinking is guiding the SAA to take Aleppo.

The fighting to take Aleppo began days after the Russians arrived in Syria on September 30. Probing attacks, or attacks designed to test enemy defenses and mislead the enemy as to the real angle of attack and offensive objectives, were launched in the Aleppo, Homs, Daraa, Latakia, and Idlib Provinces. This was part of a larger strategic vision by the Russian and Iranian Military advisors, namely to confuse the opposition, and over extend them.

This is called strategic pivoting. The idea behind strategic pivoting is to force an enemy without significant reserves to move to and fro to counter attacks. The SAA attacks for several days, enemy reserves show up, the SAA consolidates its defenses and attacks somewhere else. This strategy has been used quite successfully by the SAA. This forces the Opposition to move back and forth, and eats up a lot of resources. This also exposes them to attack from the air.

What this was meant to do overall, is to draw the rebels out of major metropolitan areas and force them to fight on the SAA’s terms. Aleppo as a battle ground is a nightmare, and to take it by storm would require resources and manpower the SAA can no longer muster. So rather than take the city by siege, the SAA has forced the opposition out of the city, namely Al-Nusra, Al-sham, and other major Islamists groups; to fight at points around the city that are vital for the rebels supplies and tactical advantage. Areas such as Bashkoy, Khan Toumen, and now The Azaz Corridor.

We can now see the results of these operations starting to take fruit, the SAA are within just a few miles of completely encircling Aleppo for good, and the rebels are in complete disarray. And just for good measure, the Afrin Kurds are attacking JaN and other rebels in the Azaz corridor. As an added bonus, the long standing sieges and thousands of SAA troops and militiamen were freed up from Nubul and Zahraa.

So between Strategic Pivoting and Shaping Operations, the Regime has dramatically strengthened its positions. Around Damascus and Homs, the regime has bombed/stormed/starved many opposition groups into local truces or out right surrender, freeing up troops to aid in more important areas. It also helps secure Homs, Hama, and Damascus.

Additionally, the rebels have lost A TON of commanders. Many of the JaN commanders have been killed, Al Sham has had many of its high level commanders killed, and the Ghouta Pocket lost its leader and important power broker Zahran Alloush. In a war were militias are ripe and unity in short supply, powerful local commanders are incredibly important for founding working relations between multiple parties. Each senior rebel killed is more disunity to be thrown into the already volatile situation on the ground.

As for Latakia, the gains by the SAA in Latakia have involved comparatively few ground troops. The SAA instead have been relying heavily on sheer firepower to blast the rebels out of their positions. Airstrikes, artillery, and the formidable Tos-1 Burantino Thermobaric weapons system have led to many government successes, including the retaking of Rabia and Salma. This is also due to the rebels in Idlib and Aleppo provinces not having the strategic reserve necessary to send reinforcements to the rebels fighting in this area.

So what does this all mean? Russian Military Strategy has led to the depletion of the Rebels strategic reserve through Pivoting the lines and axis of advances, and shaping operations have drawn them into fights in places like Bashkoy where superior Russian firepower can be brought to bear, rather than in the ruined hellscape of Aleppo itself. As a result, the rebels have lost huge amounts of troops and material, and face defeat on many fronts.

That being said, the Rebels still have tens of thousands of fighters who are battle hardened. The fight for Aleppo will not be easy, for either side.

  1. SAA and NDF numbers and equipment.
This area is contentious. The general consensus (general being used liberally), is that the SAA and NDF and its various affiliates (excluding foreign troops) is between 150,000 and 220,000 troops. When you see a variance of 70,000, it indicates how corruption, desertion, and ghost soldiers have skewed the fighting strength of the SAA and NDF. Its truly hard to figure out how many are actually in place, but its safe to note that huge numbers of these forces are not combat troops, but garrisoning troops.

The NDF has often proven itself a pitiful defensive force, and its quality varies immensely. Some units like in Latakia, are very well equipped and well trained. Others, such as those facing ISIS earlier in November, are little more than barely trained conscripts.

The quality of the SAA and NDF varies wildly, with notable attachments such as the Desert Eagles, Tiger Forces, and the Republican Guard being examples of well trained and motivated forces, led by good commanders. These units have performed miracles throughout the war.

The SAA had an UNGODLY amount of tanks, armored fighting vehicles, and other vehicles prior to the start of the war. Before the war, the SAA had nearly 5000 tanks, manly T-54/55 (2000 or so, many in storage and requiring significant love to get up and running), 850-1000 T-62, and 1500-1600 T-72, however this is disputed between several sources.

Also, they had 2500 or more BMP's, and hundreds of other armored personnel carriers. Now, its hard to give a solid number on how many are still in use, but there has been a marked decline in the number used by the opposition. It has to be noted that maintaining and equipping these tanks and vehicles is difficult and expensive.

Now, its also important to note that many of the vehicles captured by the rebels are damaged. They are hard to repair without spare parts and skilled mechanics.

Now, the regime can repair damaged vehicles. Often, at least with ATGMs, the vehicles crew is killed, but the tank is salvageable. Also, recovering them from the battlefield is hard without specialized equipment. (You cant just tow a 45 ton tank with a truck).

By the start of 2014, nearly 1800 tanks and BMP's had been damaged, captured, or destroyed. However, many are repairable, and are fixed then returned to battle. Here, this is a good story.Syrian Rebel Commands Tank Battalion from Hospital Bed — War Is Boring — Medium So, I would say the government still has 2000+ tanks, the non isis probably no more than 100-200 fighting vehicles, with isis having far more thanks to the Iraqi military.

CONCLUSION

The SAA is at its core, a well trained military force that has suffered many hard knocks in the past five years. Its quality however varies wildly. The Civil War in Syria is nowhere near its conclusion, and many more will die before its over.

No matter what side you subscribe to, lets all hope that Syria will soon know peace."
 
I said it before and i will say it again, although i was mocked for this, Russian Strategic thinking is written right over SAA's recent successes. There is no doubt that Russian Aerial Artillery has played a very pivotal role as it is the Trump Muscle that SAA is using to flush out the militants, but it is the Russian Strategic Thinking that is flowing into SAA Staff Officers. The encirclement of Aleppo and the taking of Salma are classic Russian warfare manoeuvres. Forcing the enemy to fight on your terms and not his, but incompetency is still rife within SAA and it will take years before a Professional Officer Core can be trained.

Overall, a very well written article.
 
Yep. The Russians are knocking the f out of the rebels and that only with its airforce.
 
I said it before and i will say it again, although i was mocked for this, Russian Strategic thinking is written right over SAA's recent successes.

Ah that is a routine. When the majority of members is made up of people who have seen a bullet and a rifle only on Wikipedia and the difference between the rifle and a gun eludes them, and they are at a loss to be able to understand the basic differences in measuring a caliber.

Carry On!
 
SAA manpower has increased to 200,000. Bad news for Islamists.
 
Ah that is a routine. When the majority of members is made up of people who have seen a bullet and a rifle only on Wikipedia and the difference between the rifle and a gun eludes them, and they are at a loss to be able to understand the basic differences in measuring a caliber.

Carry On!

Well said Sir

When the Russians arrived in Latakia, i argued that it's not the Russians Planes but Russian Officers that will shift the tide in Assad's favour. SAA had the weapons and men, but what they lacked was a good professional meritorious Officer Core. This is a gap the Russians and to some extent the Iranians have been able to bridge very effectively. Truth be said, all the factions in the war are disorganized and will get clobbered in a fight against a Professional Army.

But than again, i was mocked as to how the Russians don't know how to fight and how they were defeated in Chechnya bla bla bla:hitwall:. What our friends fail to realize is that the Russian Army of today is not the Russian Army of the 1990's. The Army we have seen in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria is simply top notch.

What's your opinion Sir?
 
Well said Sir

When the Russians arrived in Latakia, i argued that it's not the Russians Planes but Russian Officers that will shift the tide in Assad's favour. SAA had the weapons and men, but what they lacked was a good professional meritorious Officer Core. This is a gap the Russians and to some extent the Iranians have been able to bridge very effectively. Truth be said, all the factions in the war are disorganized and will get clobbered in a fight against a Professional Army.

But than again, i was mocked as to how the Russians don't know how to fight and how they were defeated in Chechnya bla bla bla:hitwall:. What our friends fail to realize is that the Russian Army of today is not the Russian Army of the 1990's. The Army we have seen in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria is simply top notch.

What's your opinion Sir?

Sir,

You bring up many powerful pieces of evidence about the skillful fighting abilities of the educated Russian and Iranian soldiers. Against this I can only comment that the Syrian people have:

1. 20 million very angry and vengeful people
2. a base in a country bordering the region
3. some very generous and wealthy patrons
4. lots of weapons
5. training in using those weapons effectively
6. an aspirational ideology which explains their predicament

.....and all the time in the world to recall the wrongs done to them by Shiite ruled Iran, Hezbollah, and Putin.

Oh, and today I notice that Turkey has decided to take it to Russia's door with his new co-operation with Georgia and Ukraine. I'm guessing the Ukrainians will soon be receiving batches of Syrians wanting to deal with Russians on the ground.

Russia violates territorial integrity of Georgia, Ukraine, Syria; next could be Azerbaijan – Turkey's PM
 
Militarily, yes you guys are right. But remember above all its a sectarian conflict now, Russia understand this very well. Syrian conflict is a means to an end, where Russia uses it against the west as a bargaining chip beyond that its something that will hurt them more. The time is approaching fast for Russians to decide, how to end this conflict. But having said that this conflict forever etched into the minds of Arabs of Syria and even if Assad and Allawites win this hands down, this will come to haunt them sooner than later.
 
Sir,

You bring up many powerful pieces of evidence about the skillful fighting abilities of the educated Russian and Iranian soldiers. Against this I can only comment that the Syrian people have:

1. 20 million very angry and vengeful people
2. a base in a country bordering the region
3. some very generous and wealthy patrons
4. lots of weapons
5. training in using those weapons effectively
6. an aspirational ideology which explains their predicament

.....and all the time in the world to recall the wrongs done to them by Shiite ruled Iran, Hezbollah, and Putin.

Oh, and today I notice that Turkey has decided to take it to Russia's door with his new co-operation with Georgia and Ukraine. I'm guessing the Ukrainians will soon be receiving batches of Syrians wanting to deal with Russians on the ground.

Russia violates territorial integrity of Georgia, Ukraine, Syria; next could be Azerbaijan – Turkey's PM

That's a fantasy tail. Ukrainians, Georgians, Turks and Syrian Rebels will not be joining hands to deal with Russia. Maybe you're forgetting, Russia is a Great Power and they have successfully tamed Ukraine and Georgia. Both these countries know better not to poke the Bear anymore. Ukraine or Georgia hosting Syrian Rebels is nothing but a fairy tale.

The Syrian Population has had enough of war, don't confuse them with the Afghans. There is a reason why they are desperate to run away to Europe even under such dire conditions, simply put they are done with the war and want an end to it. You're forgetting Assad's State Machinery, they are ruthless and well versed in dealing with internal rebellions. Part of the reason why SAA has a shortage of manpower is because a hunky chunk of their forces are geared towards dealing with internal rebellions. There are barely any protests or any attacks in territories taken by SAA, it's because of the brute force that SAA uses to deal with internal rebellions.
 
That's a fantasy tail. Ukrainians, Georgians, Turks and Syrian Rebels will not be joining hands to deal with Russia. Maybe you're forgetting, Russia is a Great Power and they have successfully tamed Ukraine and Georgia. Both these countries know better not to poke the Bear anymore. Ukraine or Georgia hosting Syrian Rebels is nothing but a fairy tale.

The Syrian Population has had enough of war, don't confuse them with the Afghans. There is a reason why they are desperate to run away to Europe even under such dire conditions, simply put they are done with the war and want an end to it. You're forgetting Assad's State Machinery, they are ruthless and well versed in dealing with internal rebellions. Part of the reason why SAA has a shortage of manpower is because a hunky chunk of their forces are geared towards dealing with internal rebellions. There are barely any protests or any attacks in territories taken by SAA, it's because of the brute force that SAA uses to deal with internal rebellions.

Time will prove one of us right. If in 3 months, the Syrian people are still fighting against Bashar Barrel-bomber will you be prepared to agree that I was right?
 
I said it before and i will say it again, although i was mocked for this, Russian Strategic thinking is written right over SAA's recent successes. There is no doubt that Russian Aerial Artillery has played a very pivotal role as it is the Trump Muscle that SAA is using to flush out the militants, but it is the Russian Strategic Thinking that is flowing into SAA Staff Officers. The encirclement of Aleppo and the taking of Salma are classic Russian warfare manoeuvres. Forcing the enemy to fight on your terms and not his, but incompetency is still rife within SAA and it will take years before a Professional Officer Core can be trained.

Overall, a very well written article.
If the SAA lasts that long. While SAA has made significant gains in recent months, it is still extremely hard for them to replenish their forces. It's gotten so bad that they've had to hire foreign mercenaries (mainly from South Asia and Africa), and have had to enact conscription just to break even on numbers required, but how long will that last? I'd give the SAA a few more years, I doubt even Russia and Iran will be able to same them.
 
Time will prove one of us right. If in 3 months, the Syrian people are still fighting against Bashar Barrel-bomber will you be prepared to agree that I was right?

I would, but 3 months is too short. It will be years before this war will be over, judging solely based on their Military Strength

If the SAA lasts that long. While SAA has made significant gains in recent months, it is still extremely hard for them to replenish their forces. It's gotten so bad that they've had to hire foreign mercenaries (mainly from South Asia and Africa), and have had to enact conscription just to break even on numbers required, but how long will that last? I'd give the SAA a few more years, I doubt even Russia and Iran will be able to same them.

Not true, despite mass desertions their Officer Core largely stayed loyal to Assad. It is true that SAA has faced shortage of manpower due to the geographical location they have to cover, it is not in a breaking position.

.
 
If the SAA lasts that long. While SAA has made significant gains in recent months, it is still extremely hard for them to replenish their forces. It's gotten so bad that they've had to hire foreign mercenaries (mainly from South Asia and Africa), and have had to enact conscription just to break even on numbers required, but how long will that last? I'd give the SAA a few more years, I doubt even Russia and Iran will be able to same them.

From the Iranian perspective they must be thrilled. They've gotten rid of two Arab nationalist regimes and replaced them with weak client states.

I would, but 3 months is too short. It will be years before this war will be over, judging solely based on their Military Strength

Not true, despite mass desertions their Officer Core largely stayed loyal to Assad. It is true that SAA has faced shortage of manpower due to the geographical location they have to cover, it is not in a breaking position.


How about the Barrel-bomber will not be engaging in any major military operation in 3 months time? because if the end result of Salibi Putin and the Ayatollahs intervention is just to drag out this war, I can't see that as any sort of a victory for either of them. All I see is that the cost for both the Salibi and the Ayatollahs will continue to increase--and not just in monetary and manpower terms.
 
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Not true, despite mass desertions their Officer Core largely stayed loyal to Assad. It is true that SAA has faced shortage of manpower due to the geographical location they have to cover, it is not in a breaking position.
Actually, it's quite true. Let's say, for the same of argument, you're right. SAA is not replenishing it's ranks fast enough, and I'm not just talking about the officers core. Every military needs infantry that's, let's be honest, nothing more than cannon fodder. SAA has been hard pressed to find recruits willing to fight and die for a cause that may not even work out.

I highly doubt that SAA will last more than a few more years. Even today, most of the fighting isn't even being done by SAA, it's mainly foreign mercenaries and Iranian backed militias, such as Hezbullah, which have filled SAA ranks to compensate for the lack of recruits.

Unless Assad can will within the next 2 to 3 years, SAA is a doomed service. Even if he wins, the service may not recover for decades.
 
Well said Sir

When the Russians arrived in Latakia, i argued that it's not the Russians Planes but Russian Officers that will shift the tide in Assad's favour. SAA had the weapons and men, but what they lacked was a good professional meritorious Officer Core. This is a gap the Russians and to some extent the Iranians have been able to bridge very effectively. Truth be said, all the factions in the war are disorganized and will get clobbered in a fight against a Professional Army.

But than again, i was mocked as to how the Russians don't know how to fight and how they were defeated in Chechnya bla bla bla:hitwall:. What our friends fail to realize is that the Russian Army of today is not the Russian Army of the 1990's. The Army we have seen in Crimea, Ukraine and Syria is simply top notch.

What's your opinion Sir?
U already 20th time repeat that you were mocked. Let me remind you what exactly happened.

You claimed that Russian officers will be assigned to small SAA units on battlefield and lead them to the battle. I said that that will not happen. Thats about it.

And I was right. What going on now is Iraqi and Afghan sectarian mercenaries led by IRGC officers. Virtually every day IRGC officer is dying leading his mercenaries. No any Russian officers leading troops to battle.

As for "great strategy" in Aleppo. Let me remind you, that one year ago Assadists made exactly same offensive there. Rebels were caught by surprise and Assadists captured several villages including Bashkoy, Rityan, Hardatnin in hours, forward Shiite troops even reached Nubl and Zahra. Problem was that the bulk of the attacking force then were poor drafted Sunnis. And once rebels recovered and started fighting back these poor drafted kids just started flee and surrender.

Now Assadists made same exactly attack as 1 year ago, but this time all troops were Shia + large number of Hezbollah paving road.

I hope I cleared issue once and for all and u will stop repeating how u were mocked.

P.S. And if you think that Assadist tactics magically greatly improved, u can check how they were slaughtered just recently in Ghouta and South Aleppo. These are same exactly Assadists, just with much much more loyal troops and more firepower.

PPS. If you think that Assadists were total losers and idiots before October 2015 u should check how they captured a large Safira town (nearly 90 K) in few days of October 2013. It was perfectly planned and executed operation.
 
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