Well Sir, you did indeed mock me and if my memory serves me right claimed that Russian intervention will not make any difference on the battlefield. But to sum it, time is a great equalizer for all of us.
I claimed that putting Russian officers to poor inefficient SAA units won change anything and therefore it wont happen.
Thats what actually happened. Why u say thats mocking I really dont understand. BTW Alawi officers studied in same academies as Russian. Who do u think Russian would be much better? Alawis are genetically inferior or what?
I will bring you another example. Before 1973 war Egypt kicked all Russian advisers, on the other hand Syria had thousands of them. Guess what happened in 1973 war? - Egypt succeed much more than Syria. Can you explain me that phenomenon?
Indeed i was wrong, but at a Strategic Level Russian Officers are advising the SAA. In important battles, they are deployed on a Battalion Level as seen in videos from Aleppo, in fact one was killed too. Its only because of the Russians that Iran Iraq and Syria have setup a Joint Command Unit. The others simply did not have the competency to think like this.
Battalion level? - I see many IRGC majors and colonels killed, not a single Russian.
True, but their manoeuvres and tactics have Russian written all over them.
I dont see any difference compare to rest of the war. In places where Assad had enough loyal troops he could perform well.
But the bulk of the manpower is still SAA, Hezbollah and IRGC are being used as crack troops and not supporting infantry. SAA was largely routed because of their poor tactics and strategy in the Past. As usual, they charged ahead at the rebels head on creating a massive meat grinder and loosing hundreds of men. This time with Russian Advice, they took the smart way and encircled the rebels in Aleppo.
As I noted current "encirclement" is 100% repeat of what happened 1 year ago. Except it was done by large number of Shiites mercenaries instead of poor drafted by force Sunni kids.
SAA has changed the way they fight. You can see videos of how troops are working with CAS before storming areas. Their artillery has became more effective and being used in sync with infantry, unlike in the Past where they would estimate and shoot blind at the enemy. I am seeing their tanks shoot and scoot, working in sync with infantry instead of charging alone in the middle of town. This didn't magically pop out of nowhere within less than 6 months, its Russian Advisers and Special Forces at play here.
I suggest u to check again how they captured 90 K city of Safira just in few days in 2013. This time they fought weeks to take much smaller Hader.
Before the Russians intervened, SAA was on the verge of disintegration.
Thats absolutely not true. SAA indeed retreated from small surrounded Idlib strip they held. They also retreated from Palmyra - isolated town in desert. But hats about it. Large summer offensive by rebels in Daraa miserably failed. In Latakia Assadists
gained ground capturing Durin. Basically rebels had two relatively large villages in Latakia - Durin and Salma. And Salma was on verge of collapse in March 2015 and saved only because of rebel offensive in Idlib. Finally Hezbollah captured important Qalamoun region in 2015. And now Hezbollah was free to attack in other places of Syria.
What's your opinion on Hezbollah? Although few in number, i am most impressed by their capabilities. By far the most disciplined, organized and well equipped force on the battlefield.
Hezbollah no doubt is best force in Syria by a large margin. At first they quite recklessly attacked Quseir however and suffered heavy loses. But then they changed tactics. Started using heavy artillery, and encircling town before advance in. Hezbollah) + Iraqis totally changed a tide in Syria in spring 2013 saving Assad. Spring 2013 is great illustration how just several thousands of loyal trained troops can change a tide in Syria war.
It is indeed a very impressive feat considering Hezbollah draws its soldiers from such a small pool of population.
Hezbollah is about 10 K force out a pool of 1.5 million. So pool is not small at all compare to its size.
Thats deliberate asymmetric tactics of Hezbollah against Israel. This tactics has pros and cons: pro is that small force can better hide from air force attacks more professional and motivated. Con is that u cant defeat and even impose heavy damage to enemy with this tactics, only annoy.
I believe Hezbollah of today, is far deadlier than the force we saw in 2006.
Hezbollah today is no doubt much better armed than in 2006. They have over 100 heavy Fateh-110 ballistic rockets which can reach any place in Israel with decent accuracy and 600 kg warhead (in 2006 they had few ancient Zelzals). They have insane number of heavy Uragan, Fajar-5, M302 rockets (in 2006 they had few Fajar-5), they have insane number of Kornet ATGMs (they had them in 2006 but not in very big numbers), they have Yakhont supersonic anti ship missiles (in 2006 they had few C802 and C704). And so on.
As for their training. In Syria hey fight poorly armed rebels without air force, artillery and couple tanks. They have massive artillery and air cover. In Lebanon they will be the hunted ones, hiding in holes from air force and artillery. Thats very different style of war. Hezbollah lost many experienced commanders. And experience they gain in Syria is different from what they need against Israel.
Overall they still remain a small power without armor and air force that can only bug Israel but dont possess any vital threat. Only such army in region is Egyptian. In 1967 and 1973 wars Israel suffered more loses fighting Egypt in 1 day than in 33 days of 2006 fighting Hezbollah.
I am apologize if I sound harsh sometimes, I respect u, never insulted u and never mocked.
regards .