It is exactly that.
RAB and other Elite police units in BD, like SWAT had undergone Counter terror training with US.
US have always condemned RAB since their inception and never took the step to sanction any particular individual. US had placed sanctions on Burmese general immediately after they staged the coup early this year. It does not take decades of Human rights violations for US and the west to place sanction on any individual. Unlike what our resident Hentai expert has been preaching through his illogical rants that it takes years and years to place sanction. No it doesn't. If it matches US narrative and self interest, they will find a way to make it happen fast.
If US really cared about human rights, then Israel could have never gotten away with using white phosphorus on civilians.
The timing of the sanction is the key. US is betting that Bangladesh will succumb to the pressure at the fear of losing US RMG market and give in. On the other hand, China has made it abundantly clear to BD, the consequences of going against China will not be beneficial to Bangladesh and hence openly came out to support Hasina Govt.
I can see 3 possible outcomes of this situation unfolding in the next several months -
1. Hasina gives in to US pressure. Immediately you will see strong condemnation from China and relationship with China souring to an almost irreparable state. We will likely see signing GSOMIA and ACSA signed with US, which they have been wanting to for a long time now. May even see possible US origin military hardware acquisition. And in worst case, some sort of US outpost in BD.
They are doing the same to
Cambodia and Sri Lanka. (
https://www.khmertimeskh.com/50989327/cambodia-sri-lanka-and-bangladesh-under-us-sanctions-limits-of-the-us-action/) And guess what we have in common with them? Important geographic location and high Chinese influence, which US wants to neutralize.
2. Hasina tilts to the Chinese side. US will continue to mount sanction on the current government. High possibility of forcing a coup to uproot Hasina and replace with a Pro-US government. Hence you will see BNP will happily jump at the opportunity to become Pro-US puppet. Even with BAL, there will be a division, one pro-US and other Pro-China, fighting to stay in power. China has the financial muscle to match up to US manipulation. Either way, this will create political turmoil for BD. Just like it happened in Pakistan.
3. Status quo is maintained - Bangladesh will have to pull off some really shrewd geo-political maneuvers to make this happen. I don't know exactly how we can stay neutral honestly. This is going to be extremely difficult, as China becomes more aggressive and eventually reclaims Taiwan. US would want to counter that by any means.
