Prove your loyalty to Kashmiri Muslims

[Joe Shearer]

Well, what you are suggesting, has already been going on, between India and Pakistan, in different spells, at least for about 40 cumulative years, if not more, per my crude arithmetic, in the last 75 years of our existence and conflict. Still, off and on, things have got flared up and the fundamental hostility has never ceased to exist.

Reason is simple: Tuberculosis cannot be treated with aspirin and cough syrups. They at best only provide some temporary symptomatic relief.

I agree completely that these serious ailments cannot be treated with aspirin and cough syrups.

However, that is a facile and misleading analogy.

It is more accurate to remind ourselves that tuberculosis can be treated - I stand before you a living example - but that interrupting that treatment immeasurably complicates the situation. Recovery from such interruptions is progressively difficult, and finally, if it occurs twice, or thrice, it may go beyond the power of the usual drugs to heal.

If we are to deal with these problems, from the Indian side, ignoring what the Pakistani side does, we need to set up a constitutional body, independent of the general administration and of elected governments, to negotiate and to decide on ameliorative steps, a body that will its ranks by co-opting members.

To give you an example of the kind of effect that a policy of pacific intent would have, it is worth recalling that between the administration of I. K. Gujral and that of Manmohan Singh, before 2014, in fact, the mandate for RAW vis-a-vis Pakistan was confined to supervision and oversight, and there was no encouragement of anything even a step beyond.

It is quite another matter that Pakistani diplomats coaxed an unwary Manmohan Singh to agree to discuss matters relating to Balochistan, and that this has become a regular feature of their rant. It is also quite another matter that after the government changed, relations sagged to their worst level since the Zia ul Haq days, thanks to the mutual one-upmanship of two sets of utterly irresponsible people.

Everything other than the Indus Waters Treaty provisions and consequences, and Kashmir, would be out of the way in between two to three years, never to recur.

Post it first before you make assumptions

I have nothing to prove to you, and these are hardly assumptions, just because you have not personally seen every piece of paper.

Its commonly stated by analysts that Indian troops number in the hundreds of thousands. Pakistan claims it is somewhere between 600,000 to 1 million, whereas most reputable analysts have placed estimates between 250,000 and 400,000.

I have given you the figures. Why don't you challenge the analysts' figures, as you find convenient to do in other cases?

For the record this larger numbers also typically factor other services such as the Central armed police force, which are relevant in computing the power disparity in the context of an Indo-Pak conflict.

Here The Times claimed that it is estimated to be around 250,000 in 2004. Here is an Indian source claiming from documents that the number is 168,000.

Did you think that I was blind to those numbers? Once again, these have been presented in full, on numerous occasions, on this forum and no other; there is no excuse for assuming that this is a new question, and that the question has not been answered.

The current figure, for the CRPF, as of last September, is 80 battalions in Kashmir, each battalion consisting of seven companies of 135 constables, plus support staff, totalling 1,200 constables per battalion. 96,000 CRPF constables.

The other central armed police force is the one that guards sensitive installations, such as power plants and airports. 400 + CISF constables have been allocated for the protection of a power plant that supplies power to the whole valley. Another 800 have been sanctioned, not yet deployed, for airport security.

You may want the Border Guards to be counted.

There are 35 battalions in the two union territories (until the Supreme Court decides on the legal challenges to the actions of the central government, we are forced to accept the existence of two Union Territories); that is 35 x 1200 = 42,000 constables. They are located in Jammu, at Jammu, Sundarbani, Rajauri and one reserve; in the Vale, they are located at Srinagar, Baramula, Bandipora and Kupwara.

That's 138,000 constables, counting the ones in Jammu.

It is insane to claim that there is so little posted in Kashmir considering that there are at least a minimum of three Corps (XIV, XV, XVI) posted there alongside other military branches, armed police, and special forces.

Insane?

Excuse me, I am not using colourful language but data, hard data. So you want to count XIV, XV and XVI Corps? Why? Are they, as you claim, posted in Kashmir? Really? Let's read what Signalian had to say about it.

XIV Corps is mostly China-facing; here is his report (spoiler alert - it is accurate, but outdated).

3 Infantry Division - Trishul - Leh
8 Mountain Division - Forever in Ops - Dras
121 (I) Infantry Brigade - Kargil Brigade - Kargil
102 (I) Infantry Brigade - Siachen Brigade - Partapur
118 (I) Infantry Brigade - Parashu - Nyoma
254 (I) Armoured Brigade - Snow Leopard - Leh

8 Mountain Div., in Dras, 121 Ind. Infantry Bde at Kargil, and 102 Ind. Infantry Bde that sends a battalion in rotation to Siachen, are not in eastern Ladakh.

I have already given you figures for XV Corps, headquartered at Srinagar, with divisions at Baramula and Gurez. THIS IS THE ONLY ARMY FORMATION WITHIN THE VALE.

That leaves us with XVI Corps. That really is scraping the bottom of the barrel to make a case.

However,

XVI White Knight Corps - Nagrota

10 RAPID - Crossed Swords - Akhnoor
25 Infantry Division - Ace of Spades - Rajauri
39 Infantry Division - Dah - Yol

Do look up Akhnoor, Rajauri - and Yol! - before you decide what to do with them.

Pakistan military personel in that region are well over 100,000, and considering Indian land doctrine is based on numbers it is hard to believe any of what you have said.

You don't have to believe me. Believe your own experts.

Besides that the complete order of battle is obviously not public information for obvious reasons. In fact it would be the logical conclusion that the numbers have been heavily supplemented by other formations after China opened a soft front in the North.

LOL. Another two divisions (max 30,000 troops). That, too, on the front-line, facing the PLA; I thought your point in citing 600,000 troops was to suggest that they are all busy oppressing the people of the Vale. In and around the Vale, it has come to 80,000 troops, regular formations and Rashtriya Rifles combined, another 138,000 armed constables.

I have quoted these figures before. It is not my fault that you and others do not pay attention; largely because it does not suit your narrative, and it being true be damned.

Please feel free to add 60,000 + 30,000 troops facing the Chinese, in a population that hates being coupled to the people of the Vale. That brings us to 308,000, soldiers and constables together. ANY way that you count, the figure that you have quoted is not maintainable.

I have no hope that you will cease to make aggressive and false statements to make your point, knowing them to be false. It is merely my objective to ensure that you are aware that you are not talking the right figures and that you are doing so deliberately.

It is far too gone for that. A change in policy will not suddenly erase 40 years of mistreatment.

Also by acknowledging that there is mistreatment you would be conceding ground to independence activists, and under your equal treatment policy you would have to allow Kashmiri nationalist parties, discussions, and gatherings taking place. Complete daydreaming in a region where civillians are literally tied to the front of jeeps and used as human shields by Indian military.



Jungadh was a literal violation of the rulers wish to accede to Pakistan, geographical contiguity is completely irrelevant from a legal standpoint. The fact of the matter is that it stands as a point of hypocrisy to Indians claiming any kind of high ground on the dispute. The entire justification of such an illegal action was based on the supposed principle that the majority Hindu population would not wish to join Pakistan, a principle conveniently swept under the rug when it comes to Kashmir.

Hyderabad favoured Independence initially true, however the entire act of annexation was not only an imperial fetish but due to the very real and present fact that the Nizam was rumoured to join Pakistan. Striking similarities to Kashmir and completely relevant for someone like a third party mediator to consider, which is why India refuses any sort of peaceful resolution at all.

As far as these statements are concerned, I will address them later.

It is a pity that facts, verifiable and endorsed BY YOUR OWN, are discarded in favour of concocted, just to enable people to make wild statements.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

I have nothing to prove to you, and these are hardly assumptions, just because you have not personally seen every piece of paper.

You are the one who made such a bold claim in the first place, the fact that you refuse to post a source for it speaks volumes about the credibility of what you are saying.

Did you think that I was blind to those numbers? Once again, these have been presented in full, on numerous occasions, on this forum and no other; there is no excuse for assuming that this is a new question, and that the question has not been answered.

The current figure, for the CRPF, as of last September, is 80 battalions in Kashmir, each battalion consisting of seven companies of 135 constables, plus support staff, totalling 1,200 constables per battalion. 96,000 CRPF constables.

The other central armed police force is the one that guards sensitive installations, such as power plants and airports. 400 + CISF constables have been allocated for the protection of a power plant that supplies power to the whole valley. Another 800 have been sanctioned, not yet deployed, for airport security.

You may want the Border Guards to be counted.

There are 35 battalions in the two union territories (until the Supreme Court decides on the legal challenges to the actions of the central government, we are forced to accept the existence of two Union Territories); that is 35 x 1200 = 42,000 constables. They are located in Jammu, at Jammu, Sundarbani, Rajauri and one reserve; in the Vale, they are located at Srinagar, Baramula, Bandipora and Kupwara.

That's 138,000 constables, counting the ones in Jammu.

LOL. Another two divisions (max 30,000 troops). That, too, on the front-line, facing the PLA; I thought your point in citing 600,000 troops was to suggest that they are all busy oppressing the people of the Vale. In and around the Vale, it has come to 80,000 troops, regular formations and Rashtriya Rifles combined, another 138,000 armed constables.

I have quoted these figures before. It is not my fault that you and others do not pay attention; largely because it does not suit your narrative, and it being true be damned.

Please feel free to add 60,000 + 30,000 troops facing the Chinese, in a population that hates being coupled to the people of the Vale. That brings us to 308,000, soldiers and constables together. ANY way that you count, the figure that you have quoted is not maintainable.

I have no hope that you will cease to make aggressive and false statements to make your point, knowing them to be false. It is merely my objective to ensure that you are aware that you are not talking the right figures and that you are doing so deliberately.

Completely tangential, you are arguing the specifics on an unverifiable number. I have posted sources where analysts claim the count is significantly higher, and it is illogical from a military strategy viewpoint to position troops towards the China border directly on the border and not in an area where they can rapidly deploy such as Kashmir. The order of battle posted by Signalian is readily available information on the internet, however it is naive to completely believe that this is the full and complete deployment within the region.

For the sake of argument lets say the number is as low as 100,000 - that still does not change my argument that the border is heavily monitored as I was claiming.

As far as these statements are concerned, I will address them later.

It is a pity that facts, verifiable and endorsed BY YOUR OWN, are discarded in favour of concocted, just to enable people to make wild statements.

lol

 

[Joe Shearer]

You are the one who made such a bold claim in the first place, the fact that you refuse to post a source for it speaks volumes about the credibility of what you are saying.

I refused to post a source because it was years ago, and it isn't worth the trouble to dig it out to convince some random Internet warrior.

Completely tangential, you are arguing the specifics on an unverifiable number. I have posted sources where analysts claim the count is significantly higher, and it is illogical from a military strategy viewpoint to position troops towards the China border directly on the border and not in an area where they can rapidly deploy such as Kashmir. The order of battle posted by Signalian is readily available information on the internet, however it is naive to completely believe that this is the full and complete deployment within the region.

Add whatever factor you want. It still doesn't add up. You don't have anything to argue against this, other than the tired line,'.....but it COULD be different!'

For the sake of argument lets say the number is as low as 100,000 - that still does not change my argument that the border is heavily monitored as I was claiming.

Why shouldn't the border be heavily monitored? Your argument was about the sheer weight of numbers dominating a people by brute force. Now that you can see how thin it is, you have started running about with the goal-posts.

Try @Signalian again. Get the PA Order of Battle from him.

lol

Quite so.

 

[Flash_Ninja]

I refused to post a source because it was years ago, and it isn't worth the trouble to dig it out to convince some random Internet warrior.

Source = "trust me bro!!"

You are literally the one who made the claim. Your whole argument is based on those alleged infiltrators and if you cant provide evidence to support it then you have no argument.

Why shouldn't the border be heavily monitored? Your argument was about the sheer weight of numbers dominating a people by brute force. Now that you can see how thin it is, you have started running about with the goal-posts.

Try @Signalian again. Get the PA Order of Battle from him.

What? I said there are heavy numbers as it throws into doubt the Indian claims of thousands of infiltrators sneaking across the border at the same points.

Thanks for that freudian slip though, it seems that you even subconcioucly know that the actions of your military is morally wrong.

 

[Signalian]

XIV Corps - Leh
3 Infantry Division - Trishul - Leh
8 Mountain Division - Forever in Ops - Dras
121 (I) Infantry Brigade - Kargil Brigade - Kargil
102 (I) Infantry Brigade - Siachen Brigade - Partapur
118 (I) Infantry Brigade - Parashu - Nyoma
254 (I) Armoured Brigade - Snow Leopard - Leh


XV Chinar Corps - Srinagar
19 Infantry Division - Dagger - Baramulla
28 Infantry Division - Vajr - Gurez

I think forces in Jammu can also be included as its Jammu & Kashmir where the LOC starts/end because Punjab starts afterwards.

 

[Joe Shearer]

I think forces in Jammu can also be included as its Jammu & Kashmir where the LOC starts/end because Punjab starts afterwards.

Yes, you are right, as far as normal Order of Battle considerations are concerned.

This discussion was about the force levels deployed by the Indian Army to 'hold' Kashmir. In this, I would not consider forces deployed in east Ladakh, that is the expanded XIV Corps, currently - probably - about 90,000 strong, including an armoured brigade, the Siachen battalion, or the XIV Corps detachment serving to guard the Batalik-Dras sector.

Again, that would be why I wouldn't consider XVI Corps either; only XV Corps, RR contingents, and policemen deployed from outside the state.

If we are to include supporting forces as well, then both XIV and XVI Corps should be counted.

Is that what you are saying? Assuming that you are, I'm working out the concentration levels for all three Corps, although two of them don't have a presence inside the Valley.

What? I said there are heavy numbers as it throws into doubt the Indian claims of thousands of infiltrators sneaking across the border at the same points.

This is why we need to ask keyboard warriors to come and take a look at the line of control themselves. In spite of fencing it, it is impossible to guarantee that small groups will not slip across a particularly difficult point with rough terrain. No amount of troop concentration can seal off the LOC completely.

Nobody claimed thousands at one time; it is thousands aggregating the groups of four and five who are pushed in.

They don't last long, so there is no lasting presence in the Valley.