Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Engine---we all talk about engine---modern fighter aircraft engine---but we do not understand how difficult---next to impossible that task is.

We talk about make the turbine blades---. I learnt something ---.

Why do the blades fracture---. It is the micro impurity in the material used---at the microscopic molecular level---the spinning force that makes the impure molecule separate & CREEPS away from its position---thus creating the begining of a micro fracture---.

The information that I learnt years ago and posted on this forum---that the chinese snooped and the west obliged by leaking out tainted information regarding the percentages and level of purity of the metals used---.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

How much do you think AZM project will cost ? Just a rough estimation based on your expertise and experience on the industry.

Does any Pakistani official ever talks about the cost of the program ?

I don't have any official budget reports about this, but in general, you can break it into 2 parts:

1. The cost of developing the fighter inclusive of R&D, the manufacturing facilities, etc (overhead).

2. The cost of producing each fighter (overhead + direct costs of labour, inputs, subsystems, etc). The PAF could look at around 100 fighters.

If the Turks and South Koreans are bench-marking around $25-30 b for (1) + (2) for their respective programs, then I'd wager the PAF will aim for $10-15 b for its (1) and (2). To get that price-point, they'll look at a lot of key Chinese subsystems/inputs as well as master a few key things domestically (and basically avoid working with a costly Western vendor at any significant level).

Basically ... the PAF is likely looking at around $150 m per fighter. It'd be lower than the competition, but still very expensive. This is the top-end estimate IMHO. Obviously, exports could help drive costs down, and in the case of a NGFA, the PAF can readily market it to quite a few states -- contingent on Chinese approval of course.

 

[Indos]

I don't have any official budget reports about this, but in general, you can break it into 2 parts:

1. The cost of developing the fighter inclusive of R&D, the manufacturing facilities, etc (overhead).

2. The cost of producing each fighter (overhead + direct costs of labour, inputs, subsystems, etc). The PAF could look at around 100 fighters.

If the Turks and South Koreans are bench-marking around $25-30 b for (1) + (2) for their respective programs, then I'd wager the PAF will aim for $10-15 b for its (1) and (2). To get that price-point, they'll look at a lot of key Chinese subsystems/inputs as well as master a few key things domestically (and basically avoid working with a costly Western vendor at any significant level).

Basically ... the PAF is likely looking at around $150 m per fighter. It'd be lower than the competition, but still very expensive. This is the top-end estimate IMHO. Obviously, exports could help drive costs down, and in the case of a NGFA, the PAF can readily market it to quite a few states -- contingent on Chinese approval of course.

Well thank you for the information, for total cost estimate of KFX/IFX development program is a bit less of 10 billion USD and it looks like the cost estimate is still not yet changed as Today. I hope there will be no delay so no further cost ever happen.

4 core technology development like AESA radar are also likely included in the program cost, although I really dont know for sure since the total cost estimate of 10 billion USD was made before US betray the promise to give 4 core technologies to the program, but they still keep the promise to give other 20 technologies (as TOT of F 35 deal with South Korea and LM participation in the program).

The total cost program estimate usually is always given before Indonesia start any serious aerospace program. Black Eagle UAV development cost for example is transparent until its expected final development year in 2024. N 245 program total cost is also transparent so public will now how much the project will cost government budget and whether government financial injection will get people support or not. For your information, N 245 program hasnt yet get any government injection and currently its development still uses company budget.

I think Pakistani Kamra should also do the same and Pakistani tax payer IMO also deserve to know the total cost estimate. So Pakistani can see the cost effectiveness of the program compared to other possible program and also it will make the development get more transparent and discipline.

 

[Goenitz]

but we do not understand how difficult---next to impossible that task is.

seriously a hell of a task. We cannot make even reliable valve mechanism on our own of a bike (I guess).

Why do the blades fracture---. It is the micro impurity in the material used

Impurity will crack material faster. Even voids in metal crystal will fail a component (movement of dislocation). This is related to metallurgy. The other (material science) doping is another field.
The phenomena and equation that involves to model the motion of high speed fan is another thing. Though general equations/theories are available but every other company has its modification/factors added to it (classified).
Still if our org wanna start, they can and may learn if there is a pressure. It will take decades to improve the quality though. However, making one time engine of cruise missile etc may not be of material issue but precision engineering.

 

[Itachi]

That is the USAF with a trillion dollar Multi-year budget - how does the PAF stack up with 1/500th of that budget?

Uhhhhh..........I think the plan is to bomb (nukes) the other side and call it quits.

Who cares what happens afterwards right?

You are definitely more astute in getting the message across.
The topic from which we really have deviated to my demerit as well, is the R&D culture that is required for an undertaking like . The roots of which are laid from the university level.
There are a lot of smart Pakistanis who are quietly achieving in research - a lot of which is valid but a lot of it is not or just wasted away.

Either way, this acerbic argument is going nowhere and AZM is still left to talk on.

From my current area of expertise - I would advise against scope creep otherwise you end up with the Tejas.

At the same time, we shouldn’t be and really are not designing the F-35. That jet was thought up in the 90’s and based upon a set of constraints around a unified system to work for tri services. It is a beast of a fighter, but AZM much like the JF-17 needs to be built with the PAF’s requirements in mind.

What are those requirements?
It is because we need a 5th gen fighter or 6th gen fighter?
Or is it because there is a problem that needs to be solved?

This is the line of thinking - many have all posted this here but it is still incoherent because- going back to scope creep.

View attachment 694419

That is the USAF with a trillion dollar Multi-year budget - how does the PAF stack up with 1/500th of that budget?

Also, poor man's rating for posting AFRL stuff on here...

 

[Itachi]

I am extensively connected with people from across the globe, both because of the nature of my job, and because of the multi-cultural society we have in Australia. Let me give you examples of what I have seen first hand. A Brazilian manager telling a female employee with Israeli Army background that she should reject candidates if she feels she doesn't want to work with them. An Australian manager supporting the theory that the worst employees are the top performers who don't fit culturally and they should be fired immediately. An Eastern European blonde telling me to avoid travelling through France because 'you don't want to find yourself in the wrong place at the wrong time'. Entire teams of mediocres from Austrian, Vietnamese, Australian ganging up on someone because he isn't a 'team player'. Going with the flow is the single most important trait in Western culture. Or for example a discussion with a CTO where a Chinese candidate was rejected because he had worked at a certain Chinese company and "if we find him suspicious, we wouldn't be the only people in the world".

That's just typical work politics.....can never escape them unless you're the CEO of your own company.

Let's get back to the technical stuff.

I think 165 pages of this thread is more than enough technical stuff...

Anymore and we should just publish research papers.

seriously a hell of a task. We cannot make even reliable valve mechanism on our own of a bike (I guess).

Nope, we can...

The bottleneck is not "making" something. It's completely something else...

 

[Goenitz]

The bottleneck is not "making" something. It's completely something else...

Sir.. even valve is not simple. I can give you slides of the course. It is not about just manufacturing. It is about harmonic balance, material, heat transfer, damping, timing, maintenance, sound/vibrations etc
its CFD about shape is another field.. so designing a valve is not a simple thing.
By all that Holy, Idk what is it.. Yet I have passed it.

 

[PDF]

Some other (more recent) points of reference to add to your interaction.








I think all of this more or less confirms what I was speculating earlier about my "feel".

Most of the confidence came when we repaired the Saab AWAEC. ACM Sohail Aman had the vision and was ambitious. But, as for where things stand right now, Project Azm is no Project 706. We will have to make lots of compromises along the way but PAF has traditionally performed extremely well and delivered exceptional performance. I will incline to look forward to what it achieves.

 

[Itachi]

Sir.. even valve is not simple. I can give you slides of the course. It is not about just manufacturing. It is about harmonic balance, material, heat transfer, damping, timing, maintenance, sound/vibrations etc
its CFD about shape is another field.. so designing a valve is not a simple thing.
By all that Holy, Idk what is it.. Yet I have passed it.

Please don't call me a sir lol

Bro, Dude, Itachi would be fine.

and CFD!? I don't need a research paper on the valve....just a design....use CAD lol

Better yet....if you see a valve lying around, take rudimentary calculations with your finger as a scale and 3d print or machine it. Will save you a lot of time.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Hi,

Engine---we all talk about engine---modern fighter aircraft engine---but we do not understand how difficult---next to impossible that task is.

We talk about make the turbine blades---. I learnt something ---.

Why do the blades fracture---. It is the micro impurity in the material used---at the microscopic molecular level---the spinning force that makes the impure molecule separate & CREEPS away from its position---thus creating the begining of a micro fracture---.

The information that I learnt years ago and posted on this forum---that the chinese snooped and the west obliged by leaking out tainted information regarding the percentages and level of purity of the metals used---.

reminds me of Dr AQ Khan who was a metallurgist. there might be a need for developing or sourcing advanced material hybrid something fictional like a synthetic carbon alloy that is light but durable under all temperature and stress extremes and can be easily molded or shaped to build the main structure or the elements of Engine and/ or the fuselage of the plane. as you also mentioned I am talking at nano tech level of engineering and science and if we can frog leap by sourcing something from say china then we might be able to bridge some gap to see a reality of this jet in our lifetimes.

I worked in Tektronix for 10 years which is based i Beaverton and how back in 50s it started as a small shed shop by the former US army signals and engineer corps guys and transformed the place into a tech city and many other tech companies sprouted around it.
going by that example its a many decades long life time goal to achieve where this aviation city will need similar and support industries and knowledge to help itself realize the concept.

 

[Trango Towers]

Hi,

Engine---we all talk about engine---modern fighter aircraft engine---but we do not understand how difficult---next to impossible that task is.

We talk about make the turbine blades---. I learnt something ---.

Why do the blades fracture---. It is the micro impurity in the material used---at the microscopic molecular level---the spinning force that makes the impure molecule separate & CREEPS away from its position---thus creating the begining of a micro fracture---.

The information that I learnt years ago and posted on this forum---that the chinese snooped and the west obliged by leaking out tainted information regarding the percentages and level of purity of the metals used---.

Thats why now single crystal turbine blade tech is being explored.

 

[MIRauf]

.......

Basically ... the PAF is likely looking at around $150 m per fighter. It'd be lower than the competition, but still very expensive. This is the top-end estimate IMHO. Obviously, exports could help drive costs down, and in the case of a NGFA, the PAF can readily market it to quite a few states -- contingent on Chinese approval of course.

Question would be as to who would be the export customer(s) ? at $100+ Million, it would be very hard to find one, the ones that can afford likely be operating F-35s for a while by then or have their own program to build one or already building them.

Egypt ? highly unlikely that they will get the F-35s, will GCC fund AZM for their use ? Something tells me that Egypt would like go for Tempest or the French 5th Gen or even the Swedish one, unless PAC offers them assembly line.
Nigeria ? unlikely, Myanmar ? unlikely, Azerbaijan ? perhaps, if yes then very small number 12-20 perhaps.

Most all others that have a need for 5th Gen or above have their own programs or co-partners with others.

For export, AZM is going to face same delimma as the TFX, KFX likely will just have two operators as well. Will be real tough for these upcoming 5th Gen projects to find buyers then the country of Origin airforce.

 

[Irfan Baloch]

Question would be as to who would be the export customer(s) ? at $100+ Million, it would be very hard to find one, the ones that can afford likely be operating F-35s for a while by then or have their own program to build one or already building them.

Egypt ? highly unlikely that they will get the F-35s, will GCC fund AZM for their use ? Something tells me that Egypt would like go for Tempest or the French 5th Gen or even the Swedish one, unless PAC offers them assembly line.
Nigeria ? unlikely, Myanmar ? unlikely, Azerbaijan ? perhaps, if yes then very small number 12-20 perhaps.

Most all others that have a need for 5th Gen or above have their own programs or co-partners with others.

For export, AZM is going to face same delimma as the TFX, KFX likely will just have two operators as well. Will be real tough for these upcoming 5th Gen projects to find buyers then the country of Origin airforce.

forget about export
Bilal just made a passing remark and this project is not even with a mind of capturing export market.
nothing you say is wrong but you wrote an entire thesis on his sentence which is but a small portion to his main post

 

[JamD]

Azm's MALE UAV's wing jig:
View attachment 677199

Better quality:

 

[JamD]

Better quality:
View attachment 694923

Some rough pixel counting shows that AZM MALE's wing is 6.5 m long. So it roughly has a 13.5-14 m wingspan.

For reference:
Falco wingspan: 7.3 m
Burraq wingspan: 8 m (Pakistan's largest public UAV)
Shahpar wingspan: 6.6 m

This 13.5-14 m wingspan puts it in the class of Wing Loong I. Maybe Azm's MALE is just a license production/modification of the Wing Loong I, who knows?

Most of the confidence came when we repaired the Saab AWAEC. ACM Sohail Aman had the vision and was ambitious. But, as for where things stand right now, Project Azm is no Project 706. We will have to make lots of compromises along the way but PAF has traditionally performed extremely well and delivered exceptional performance. I will incline to look forward to what it achieves.

Agreed with everything. I wouldn't be this active on this thread if I wasn't hopeful about what PAC can achieve.