Possible steps to counter the rising threat from IAF ?

[Basel]

@ksama your post just showed how low IQ you have or you are an ignorant fool. I never said JF will use twin engines.

 

[Cinder]

Why do we still have F-7s are Miraages? I'm about to blow my face off

 

[Storm Force]

Basel

I THINK YOU HAVE FOUND THE ANSWER TO IAF of Today and until 2025.

Simply build a Stealth version of the Thunder.

Better than Super Hornet as well

Brilliant move & idea Basel

 

[Rain]

\planning future: as all generals are talking here, I need permission to utter some of my nonsense, am I allowed.

Well Pakistan future power status depends on the scenario in middle east and in central Asia. if Pakistan manage to grow its economy by at a rate of 5 + %. It will have by 2020, good enough resources and tech to counter IAF and IA but inregards to IN that will be difficult.
How.
First Pakistan is not working on inventing new systems. what Pak does it to buy good stuff and upgrade it with latest gadgets..this strategy I good enough for Pak. One ther other hand India is bent upon making all modern gadgets it self that is costly business and needs a lot of money... I am happy with it for india.
in brief what india gets a say 100m$ pak will a system capable of matching it for worth 20M$, so Pak need little money as compared to India.
What Pak AF will need in 2020 onwards is 10 sq of gen 4.5 or above, and 10 sq, of JF/ F16 type jets.. and 5 sq mix type

I am closing my case

 

[Viper0011.]

"Optimism doesn't wait on facts. It deals with prospects"-
You seriously imagine a country, India, with 10 times the GDP of Pakistan, would allow any form of conventional parity? That too when Pakistan is trying to drag itself out of a financial mess?

If you care to read the post above the one you "selectively" responded to, you'll see the actual business case I justified. I was responding to Abingdonboy and he actually rated my post, he's from India but he got the point I was trying to make. Then its people like yourself who just want to by pass the facts and counter a statement with silly anti-Pakistan rant and 0 logic like quoted above.

There is no "optimism". By the end of the next year (if the current gov't of Pakistan is not forced out by political drama that plagues this country every time democracy tries to prevail), you'll see over $ 70 Billion invested in various projects. If you calculate a tax rate of 15% over it, that's per year, $ 11+ additional billion a year, plus many millions of news jobs will be created, new businesses, hospitals, schools, trade zones, a new port, services for the Chinese population who'd get their stuff from Gawader (over 200 million Chinese people in the Western countryside will utilize this port for trade and products, shipping, etc)......so add about another 3-4% growth in addition to the 4% Pakistan currently has. All the above adds additional 25-35 Billion additional revenue. Let's now take $ 30 billion and take 10% of it in the capital projects (one time investment, not maintenance).

For one year alone, its $ 3-4 billion. Older -16's (Block 40) an excellent air defense option with AMRAAMS can be purchased from the US and other places for about $ 20-25 million a piece. 80 of these puppies at $ 20 million mean.....with $ 2 billion..you could have 100 of these.

OR, you could go to China, take out soft loan get 80 J-11's by putting a $ 1 billion down and then invest the other $ 2 Billion into a JV on J-31 or to come up with a Stealthy version of the JFT based on J-31.....and by the time these become available, a few years would've past by and the economic growth would provide that much money easily to get 100 of the Stealthy jets. This isn't next century, its a game of 5 politically stable, economically growing years and that's it. The Pakistanis, irrespective of their political differences, need to realize that and support their current government so it can bring about economic shift.

Hope the maths makes sense, I don't do "optimism", I do strategy and I've done that for some of the largest Indian-based organizations too. The words like "Peace" and "Optimism" don't exist in my book. For example, I told a Pakistani poster a few days ago that "today's Peace can only be achieved through unstoppable, over whelming fire power, which at this point and for many years to come, only belongs to the United States Military".
I also told him about Afghanistan, that today's Afghanistan isn't tomorrows and they'll grow. Similarly, for you, the point is, today's Pakistan isn't tomorrows.......if this one government can finish their term, you'll see a huge changes in Pakistan and it'll start to grow on a vertical climb. Defense procurements will be different for Pakistan in the next 5 years vs. today. No one will say no to cash, mark my words on it.
LM has already put Pakistan as a potential buyer around 2020 for the JSF........why do you think that is ??? They are smart people and they are calculating what would happen if the Pakistani economy takes off. Spending 5-10 billion on jets is a joke at that point.
Also, Pakistan doesn't need 1:1 parity with India. Here's an example, 400 4+ Gen planes, backed up by about 80 (4 squadrons) of stealthy platforms, backed up by point defense fighters like the F-7 and a three tier area denial system with about 1000 SAMS of different ranges. Why would the IAF (even three times the size) would want to venture in and lose over 50% of its Western fleet? THAT is what I am referring to as Parity. Not 1 to 1 purchase.

 

[Storm Force]

Orangzeib

Where did you get these figures from

you'll see over $ 70 Billion invested in various projects
millions of news jobs
over 200 million Chinese people in the Western countryside will utilize this port for trade and products
25-35 Billion additional revenue
LM has already put Pakistan as a potential buyer around 2020 for the JSF........

No offence

You are smoking some serious stuff my friend.

Love the ambition.

BEST PART THIS ALL HAPPENING IN 5 YEARS

 

[Viper0011.]

Orangzeib
Where did you get these figures from you'll see over $ 70 Billion invested in various projects
millions of news jobs
over 200 million Chinese people in the Western countryside will utilize this port for trade and products
25-35 Billion additional revenue
LM has already put Pakistan as a potential buyer around 2020 for the JSF........

No offence. You are smoking some serious stuff my friend. Love the ambition. BEST PART THIS ALL HAPPENING IN 5 YEARS

I am answering your points in bold above. But next time, if you want me to respond, try to reply to my post. Otherwise writing silly statements and showing your hatred towards Pakistan just because of your Indian citizenship, doesn't make the facts go away. Also, remember, no one can stop the future from happening. If the people of Pakistan want their country to grow, nothing can stop it. But the people are the real issue here as they are too busy derailing system after system, not realizing that policies are set over 5 years and that's how long it takes to start to see result at a government level (not to mention a malfunctioning system like Pakistan that takes its own course).

The five year is correct. Remember, this isn't building a business which will then build products and sell to customers and one day, it'll make money. Its about, giving a HUGE country an alternative route to save hundreds of millions per year in transportation and through faster access to the rest of the world, AND let it transport 60% of its fuel cost effectively. How much do you think it costs to bring in 60% of the fuel for a country of 1.3 billion people.....many billions. Here they save many by using Gawader, hope you got the drift!
Plus, this energy, good and oil transportation system provides billions of services revenue (pass through) along with crazy internal growth in infrastructure, which then does what I told you it would mathematically. You can either keep limping with your as* hurting or you can read, understand (and comprehend) the facts before writing silly, unproductive posts with personal name calling.

Here, I am posting three links. If you do your own research, you can come up with many more. Just for you to know how big the China is, the part that will be linked to Gawader and to the Central Russian stated by road and by high speed rail, has almost 300-400 million people living there. I use conservative estimates so I mentioned 200 million people.

Pakistan wins China investment worth $42 billion: Official - Economic Times

World Defense Blog: Pakistan getting F-35 jets after 2020

Here's a map (and many more maps) showing you what's being built and where is it going:

Khunjerab Railway - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an excerpts taken from two articles:
"China's interest is driven by concerns about energy security as it seeks to fuel its booming economy. It wants a place to anchor pipelines to secure oil and gas supplies from the Gulf. Beijing also believes that helping develop Pakistan will boost economic activity in its far western province of Xinjiang and dampen a simmering, low-intensity rebellion there"

"
In 2013 Gwadar port was acquired by the state-owned China Overseas Port Holdings Limited.[15] The port is said to be strategically important for China as sixty percent of China’s oil comes from the Gulf by ships travelling over 16,000 kilometres in two to three months, confronting pirates, bad weather, political rivals, and other risks up to its only commercial port, Shanghai. Gwadar will reduce the distance to a mere 5000 kilometres and also serve round the year. [6]

• China has been instrumental in design of the project.
• China is providing approximately 80% of the cost of Port in shape of grants and soft loans
• Over 500 Chinese workers have worked on the project on 24 hour basis to complete the port setup. There are still a large number of Chinese workers and engineers working on the project.
• China has further committed to provide money and resources as and when needed.
• China is setting up a Dry Port at the Pak-China border to take advantage of shorter route to sea through Gwadar.
• China has paid US$360 million to Pakistan for expansion and an upgrade for all weather trafficability of Karakoram Highway linking Pakistan with China. The contract has been awarded to Frontier Works Organization, who has also started the project.
• Feasibility and engineering studies to connect China with Gwadar through pipeline and railway track has already begun. This railway track also has the significance of being an engineering marvel of the world"

 

[thrilainmanila]

i think it would take billions and billions of USD to counter the IAF, I'm not indian btw (before anyone accuses me), The era the PAF is in is very different from previous eras in the yester years the british and russians were the sole providers to the IAF, PAF had the US and pakistan could financially afford a decent air force they had mig-19s, mirage III/Vs, sabers etc bk in the late 60s early 70s the main fighter in the indian air force was the mig-21 the PAF wasn't at such a great disadvantage. Now things are seriously different, we have a massive numerical disadvantage and a massive technological Gap. I think the IAF in a few years could be a massive threat to the PLAAF never mind the PAF, i seriously doubt the PAF can counter the IAF given the fct that there air force is full of over 200 SU-30MKIs, Mirage-2000(uprgade to 2k5), mig-29s(navy has 29K) And now they have the rafales coming soon what is PAFs answer? its a mission impossible, i'm not evening mentioning the 100s of israeli radars and electronics these guys have. it would take billions and billions of dollars to counter there threat, right now the PAF have something like 70 odd F-16s and 50 odd JF-17s the rest of the fleet is obsolete. Lets not pretend that the JF-17 is something more then it actually is its not the answer to the SU-30s if the PAF had something like 200 F-16s and 200 JF-17(with western avionics etc) i think they would have a deceny shot. THE F-16s should be the backbone of the PAF, an elite fighter at the level of the Eurofighter or rafale is needed. And its unlikely the PAF will get it. Pakistan right now is a mess.

 

[Viper0011.]

i think it would take billions and billions of USD to counter the IAF

I think the IAF in a few years could be a massive threat to the PLAAF never mind the PAF, i seriously doubt the PAF can counter the IAF given the fct that there air force is full of over 200 SU-30MKIs, Mirage-2000(uprgade to 2k5), mig-29s(navy has 29K) And now they have the rafales coming soon what is PAFs answer? its a mission impossible, i'm not evening mentioning the 100s of israeli radars and electronics these guys have.

It would take billions and billions of dollars to counter there threat, right now the PAF have something like 70 odd F-16s and 50 odd JF-17s the rest of the fleet is obsolete.

I think we've all agreed to some of your points. India is 7 times larger than Pakistan. It is insane to even think about 1:1 match with 4 times the population and number 3 economy on the map. I think that's established. Its like thinking one day India will match the US....won't happen. I can't see India ever having over 3000 Jets in their arsenal. The world is different today than what it was post WWII.
Next, its a simple math. I don't think the PAF needs tens of billions. I think they need a few billion. At $ 20-25 Million a pop, they can get used -16's block 40 with the latest avionics and AMRAAMS (little lesser than block 60 AESA). $ 1 Billion buys you 100 of those......so $ 2 Billion buys you 200 of those.
Or, you could spend a billion for the -16's and the other one with the Chinese and get J-11 like 40-60 of them. That would take the number of -16's to 170, JFT 150 (or is it 250 total?, but lets take 150 for now), J-11 to 60, totaling your primary force to little less than 400. That's not bad. If the -16 isn't an option, 100 J-11 would do with those $ 2 billions. Add about 50 point defense F-7 PG's (can still fire a missile to about 20 KM's?), that's over 400 jets. That's not bad.

A couple of billions can be spent on J-31 stealthy acquisition and another one on TOT for a decent range SAM system that can form 2-3 tiers. So total of 6-8 Billion one time expense, maintenance is not included as it would be ongoing. I think if Pakistan adds about 20-30 billion in additional income, revenue and taxes through programs being started with the Chinese, I think this is very do-able if you divide the sum over 3 years ($ 2 Billion per year). Or if you put down 3 billion in advance, the manufacturer will finance the remainder as they'll recover their cost with the first large down payment.
The purpose is not to match every single SU or Mirage or Rafale....the purpose is to make the other party realize that they will lose half of their Western fleet in case they tried to venture out. Do you think India or anyone else really wants to lose 35-40% of its air force when they are also dealing with a semi-super power China on the other side of the border?? The answer is not just a no, its a Hell No!

 

[MastanKhan]

Hi,

Most indian posters don't realize that being a smaller country and our geography---we need lesser aircraft to defend----like frontline aircraft + long and medium range SA batteries---. IAF can never place 100% of their aircraft in Pakistan's arena----only 60% or so. So---it will never have have ultimate superiority.

The bigger loss is to indian IT industry---one successful pakistai strike at a major IT hub----the business will be flying out---actually Pakistan CAN HAVE hostilities against india and be successful once it targets those hubs----.

Another 4 sqdrn's of F 16's new / used----2 to 3 sqdrn's of heavies and against any indian aggression----Pakistan can pull off a coupe de grace by escalating any indian shelling and taking it to the next level.

PAF's target would be deep into india's gut----in the south where all the IT hubs are----strike deep---strike hard----and let the chips fall where they may.

Once that happens----within 48 to 72 hours of the war---businesses would be running out of Hindustan.

 

[A.Rafay]

Hi,

Most indian posters don't realize that being a smaller country and our geography---we need lesser aircraft to defend----like frontline aircraft + long and medium range SA batteries---. IAF can never place 100% of their aircraft in Pakistan's arena----only 60% or so. So---it will never have have ultimate superiority.

The bigger loss is to indian IT industry---one successful pakistai strike at a major IT hub----the business will be flying out---actually Pakistan CAN HAVE hostilities against india and be successful once it targets those hubs----.

Another 4 sqdrn's of F 16's new / used----2 to 3 sqdrn's of heavies and against any indian aggression----Pakistan can pull off a coupe de grace by escalating any indian shelling and taking it to the next level.

PAF's target would be deep into india's gut----in the south where all the IT hubs are----strike deep---strike hard----and let the chips fall where they may.

Once that happens----within 48 to 72 hours of the war---businesses would be running out of Hindustan.

This is how we should dent their economy, drive investors and FDI out of there, regular attacks and bigger skrimishes would turn india into a hostile state.

 

[MastanKhan]

This is how we should dent their economy, drive investors and FDI out of there, regular attacks and bigger skrimishes would turn india into a hostile state.

Hi,

Absolutely----Pakistan has no fears----. With a 460---500 4th gen and up aircraft---Pakistan can escalate this conflict and take it anywhere india wants it to and still stay within the realms conventional warfare.

An not even with that many---3 sqdrn's of heavies--- 4 more sqdrn's of blk 40 and up F 16's and another 4 to 5 sqdrn's of JF 17's----and Pakistan has india where it wants it to----.

A chain is as strong as its weakest link----as long as india is dependent on its foreign business---that will be its weakest link---.

 

[A.Rafay]

Hi,

Absolutely----Pakistan has no fears----. With a 460---500 4th gen and up aircraft---Pakistan can escalate this conflict and take it anywhere india wants it to and still stay within the realms conventional warfare.

An not even with that many---3 sqdrn's of heavies--- 4 more sqdrn's of blk 40 and up F 16's and another 4 to 5 sqdrn's of JF 17's----and Pakistan has india where it wants it to----.

A chain is as strong as its weakest link----as long as india is dependent on its foreign business---that will be its weakest link---.

Yea totally, whats the worst that can happen to us.

 

[MastanKhan]

Yea totally, whats the worst that can happen to us.

Thanks---you are right---we are already in deep shit---. I never thought that 'indians' would be so stupid to entangle themselves with someone who is suicidal.

 

[A.Rafay]

Thanks---you are right---we are already in deep shit---. I never thought that 'indians' would be so stupid to entangle themselves with someone who is suicidal.

We are not suicidal as of yet.....But your plan was.