Parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 18 in Pakistan. Sadly, it is essentially irrelevant which party will come out strongest and what kind of government will result from the post-election political machinery. Pakistan faces a very real danger of collapsing as an effective national state, yet at a time when the country would need its political system for contributing to a sense of Pakistani togetherness, its politicians have long lost the capability to do so. There are signs that the Pakistani Army is preparing to take over.
Over the past decades, the countrys political domain has cut itself more-or-less loose from decently running the national state, instead, generally serving business interests, tribal interests, personal interests and combinations of those. This has become so deeply rooted and is so characteristic of Pakistani politics that the established, accepted role of the political system since long has only been to continue business as usual -and not effectively to run the country. Presently, powerful internal and external forces, varying from the US government to Pakistans intelligence service, ISI and from the Taliban to al-Qaida, have an active interest in the collapse of Pakistan, since they all need a new battlefield in the War on Terror. The only remaining force able to keep the country together used to be the Army. The Pakistani Army was, for decades, the backbone of the nation, at the same time being relatively shielded from day-to-day togetherness hiccups by the political domain that fills the formal state structure - but it remains to be seen if the Army can provide sufficient backbone under the present circumstances.
Losing effectiveness
It is clear that the Pakistani State is rapidly losing internal effectiveness. The assassination of Ms Bhutto, followed by a wave of suicide attacks and other violence, greatly helped produce nationwide chaos. At present, the average Pakistani citizen views himself at a greater distance from the State of which he is a citizen than perhaps ever before. The distancing process really took hold in the last quarter of 2007, when President Musharrafs popularity plummeted into near-nothingness and when lawyers and judges staged protests against the President without actually achieving much - yet contributing to a public sense of chaos. Perhaps the protests from the legal professions were not orchestrated but at any rate they did help destabilize the country significantly.
To destabilize a country, it is crucial that a situation is reached where the man in the street loses sight of his place in the bigger picture, develops a sense of chaos and urgently starts looking for confirmation that the State still provides for the bigger picture. One cannot blame the average Pakistani citizen for feeling that he is looking in vain. Parts of the States physical territory (i.e. the Waziristan regions) are under the effective control of the Taliban; enemy forces have proven able to offensively conquer Army fortifications, et cetera. Ms Bhutto, although deeply immersed in political clientele-culture, would probably have been able to function as a sufficiently unifying symbol to stop - or at least delay - Pakistan moving further down the road to collapse.
But Ms Bhutto is out of the picture. The growing chaos was deepened by her military-style execution: a bomb to create chaos, sniper-crossfire to maximize a successful hit, a second bomb to destroy the crime scene and one or two visibly shooting decoys thrown in to be blamed. Not only did the Bhutto assassination disrupt the political theatre, it also signalled to the average citizen the helplessness of the State. Then, the state added to the proof of its ineffectiveness by not being able to carry out a transparent and credible investigation into the murder.
Tip the scales
Not very much more chaos may be needed to tip the scales sufficiently beyond the point of no return: a societys conventions, rules and structures in a national state are not very likely to survive without the State; the people, without whom there is no State, need the stability that ensues from a coherent bigger picture. Deal a few more severe blows to the state and it may cease to function.
Now, parliamentary elections are soon to be held. However futile these elections are (i.e. whichever coalition of wheeler-dealer clans form a coalition government), a failure to properly execute the electoral process would largely cement the Pakistani States incredibility. For this proud 165 million population, for the countrys internal security and for reclaiming lost ground in the heads of the people, these elections must somehow become a success. The alternative is to lose more ground to those who profit ideologically from the creation of a new battlefield in the War on Terror. There is a significant chance that the elections will fail. The basic level of fear among the population has risen to a point where street violence easily turns into mob violence. Large masses running amok because they fear chaos may easily create more chaos. How difficult would it be to use snipers, have bombs go off, et cetera, during the elections? Recent Pakistani history has shown that such matters can be arranged well.
Gentlemanship and Manhood
With Pakistans political machinery unable to do more than project a needed - semblance of Democracy - and with the absence of popular figures of political symbolism - there are signs that the Pakistani Army views itself as the only coherent and powerful entity that may prevent the country from at least reaching the point of no return. Not the 500,000 strong rank-and-file, of course; and not an incidental Colonel here or a Brigadier there. But there is a class of high-ranking officers that, by and large, runs the Army. For them, the Army is not simply a career but a way of life that stems from a tradition which mixes educated colonial Gentlemanship with tough southeast-Asian Manhood. The majority of these officers adhere to tradition, not to politics. They supported Gen. Musharraf eight years ago when he started his attempts at stabilizing the country. Their support for the President has really withered away over the past year.
Nevertheless, the President has no intention of stepping down, perhaps incorrectly assuming that in doing so, he would contribute to the countrys misery. Credible sources say that over the past three, four months a virtual anti-Musharraf movement has come into being among this class of tradition-oriented top officers, urging the President to step down. They have two reasons: the President is doing much more harm than good, in terms of political symbolism and in safeguarding the physical integrity of the state; and the continued stay of this hugely unpopular retired Army General would seriously undermine the authority of any successor the Army would put forward, in case it decides to restore order (i.e. to undertake a coup détat). According to knowledgeable sources, presently a growing group of influential traditional top officers, some retired, others on active duty, feel time working against them in their attempts to save the country. In convincing others of that, they even manage to get a growing group of somewhat more political officers on their side. Now, time is of the essence, as chaos, in itself, may not be sufficient for a coup by the Army, to take over from the immensely unpopular General Musharraf. If the elections descend into bloodshed, would-be étatists cannot wait too long: should a situation arise where the street takes over, the Army would massively have to act against its fellow countrymen, thus wiping out badly needed support.
Clear signal
Musharraf, retired General Musharraf, is still one of them, though. So in keeping with their symbolism and values, they fired a warning shot. To the outside world it looked strange and several commentators applied a tongue-in-cheek-tone in describing how, on January 22, near Army General Headquarters in Rawalpindi, a group of top Generals, some retired and others active, some traditional and others more political, took part in a small anti-Musharraf demonstration. January 22 being Kashmir Day, this provided a decent legitimacy for the gathering. Present, among others, were retired Generals Ali Quli Khan, Mirza Aslam Beg, Faiz Ali Chishti, Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani, Salim Haider, and Asad Durrani. Demonstrators called for Musharraf to be court-martialled, accused him of damaging the Kashmir cause and called for an inquiry into the Kargil war. It goes without saying that security forces, usually intimidatingly present at demonstrations, were completely absent. Kashmir being a convenient veil, the whole event was a clear signal.
If the parliamentary elections descend into chaos and violence, be not surprised if it is rapidly followed by a military coup. Reliable sources say that elements of the Special Service Group (i.e. Pakistans elite commandos) were, not long ago, exercising mock insurgency scenarios.
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