Hammer-fist
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Survey Methodology
SURVEY AREA COVERAGE
Demographic profile of the respondents:
* Average age of respondents: Males 39 years and females 34 years, starting from 18 years
* Male-Female ratio: 50:50
* Rural-urban ratio: 65:35
The Daily Star has been carrying out opinion poll nationwide since 2009. The series began with the 100-day performance rating of the current government. This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper.
The Daily Star and CSR followed internationally practiced research methodology in collecting data from randomly selected survey areas. For comparability with the previous surveys, same number of respondents was selected from the same survey areas under strict supervision and quality control measures.
The objective of The Daily Star Opinion Poll 2012 was to assess the performance rating of the government after four years in power,, gauge public opinion about various national issues and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election. To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
Urban and rural areas
Male and female population
Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into seven divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. The urban area is divided into wards, and mahallas. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh. A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 2,510 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2012.
Who would win if elections are held today -- AL or BNP?
If an election is held today, AL will win more votes than its arch rival BNP. However, as the survey reveals, the gap between the two parties is now very thin although both parties have gained votes.
AL's votes increased to 42 percent from 40 percent last year. Its votes are basically hovering around its core votes as the last four surveys reveal.
BNP's votes increased to 39 percent from last year's 37 percent. It had significantly gained since 2010 mainly with swing votes (We consider the 'no response' segment as swing votes) which had dramatically fallen from 26 percent to 9 percent in 2011 and has risen by 1 percentage point in 2012, making for a total of 10 percent.
The real deciding factor will be this large segment of 10 percent who still remain undecided and did not respond to the question of who they would vote for if an election is held today. They are the swing voters who will act as the king makers.
Jamaat's votes decreased to 1 percent from 2 percent last year. There seems to be a shift in Jamaat's votes to BNP, thus making Jamaat less relevant to BNP in the next poll.
Jatiya Party's votes seem to have decreased marginally to 5 percent. However, Jatiya Party will have more bargaining power in alliance building, as the difference between the AL and BNP is narrowing.
JI = Jamat e Islami
Govt
1. Jamat are heading to become a banned illegal organization in Bangladesh. The popular feeling amongst them now is so much that even a BNP government will not be able to undo any ban against them as the Islamic clergy, educated elite, civil society (maybe even elements of the military) will be totally against it.
2. Islamic clergy in Bangladesh i.e. Deobandis, Sufis, Ahlul Hadith will also pressurize any future BNP government to maintain the current ban on all books by Maudoodi (not that such a ban is practically enforcable but psychologically designates the writer, Maudoodi, a stigma and is an expression of condemnation).
Whether Pakistani liberals and moderates will be able to do such a thing in the future against the Jamatis there is unlikely though. However Pakistani progressives will definitely be heartened by the ban of the extremist party in Bangladesh.
Ershad may be the king-maker in the next Bangladeshi elections. The BNP may ditch Jamat as a party which can only help them to gain 1% of votes as opined in the economist.
Bangladesh's war-crimes trials: Bloodletting after the fact | The Economist
Former president, Ershad.
Jamat - who will be banned - are going through a natural process of losing support. They gained 4.6% in the last elections, 4.2% before, a poll a few years back showed them losing 2 percentage points from the 4.6% and now this poll shows a further 1% drop from that 2%. However 1% from a population of 150 million is numerically significant.
Jamat is fast becoming obselete in an ever increasingly more modern Bangladesh with a growing economy. It will also not be able to spread its fundamentalist message too much in a country where women are slowly but steadily gaining greater social power e.g. through their entrance in to the labour market. Women in western Europe were also second class but during the second world war they enjoyed their first mass exposure to the modern labour market when working in factories whilst their menfolk were at war. This however was not reversed and women did not return back to their houses after the war but continued to work.
The recent acts of violence by Jamatis against Hindus, policemen, acts of sabotage (which would lead them to being classified as a terrorist organization in many countries) is simply the last gasp of survival in a country where they are fast becoming a complete irrelevance.
SURVEY AREA COVERAGE
Demographic profile of the respondents:
* Average age of respondents: Males 39 years and females 34 years, starting from 18 years
* Male-Female ratio: 50:50
* Rural-urban ratio: 65:35
The Daily Star has been carrying out opinion poll nationwide since 2009. The series began with the 100-day performance rating of the current government. This year The Daily Star engaged Centre for Strategic Research (CSR) to collect data on behalf of the newspaper.
The Daily Star and CSR followed internationally practiced research methodology in collecting data from randomly selected survey areas. For comparability with the previous surveys, same number of respondents was selected from the same survey areas under strict supervision and quality control measures.
The objective of The Daily Star Opinion Poll 2012 was to assess the performance rating of the government after four years in power,, gauge public opinion about various national issues and public image of different political parties and leaders. The study explored the general perception on politics in Bangladesh according to gender, age group, urban-rural and different constitutional setting, socio-economic and geographic divisions. It was also investigated people's perception and views about the upcoming national parliamentary election. To ensure that the sample properly represents all possible categories, respondents were selected from the following groups:
Urban and rural areas
Male and female population
Age 18 years and above
Study Design: The sample for the poll covered the entire population residing in private dwellings units in the country. Administratively, Bangladesh is divided into seven divisions. In turn, each division is divided into districts, and each district into upazila. The urban area is divided into wards, and mahallas. Each rural area in the upazila is divided into union parishad (UP) and into mouzas within UPs. Therefore, Primary Sampling Units (PSUs) were mouza in the rural areas and mohallah in the urban areas. From each PSU, required number of respondents were selected randomly. The list of mouzas and mohallas were procured from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics. Therefore, to capture overall picture of Bangladesh, the poll was carried out in 44 districts, covering all the 7 administrative divisions across Bangladesh. A target number of completed interviews with eligible adult population were set at 2,510 based on statistical estimation, both from rural and urban areas. The split among these areas were based on national rural-urban population distribution. The survey was quantitative in nature, interviewed at household level and the survey period was December 2012.
Who would win if elections are held today -- AL or BNP?
If an election is held today, AL will win more votes than its arch rival BNP. However, as the survey reveals, the gap between the two parties is now very thin although both parties have gained votes.
AL's votes increased to 42 percent from 40 percent last year. Its votes are basically hovering around its core votes as the last four surveys reveal.
BNP's votes increased to 39 percent from last year's 37 percent. It had significantly gained since 2010 mainly with swing votes (We consider the 'no response' segment as swing votes) which had dramatically fallen from 26 percent to 9 percent in 2011 and has risen by 1 percentage point in 2012, making for a total of 10 percent.
The real deciding factor will be this large segment of 10 percent who still remain undecided and did not respond to the question of who they would vote for if an election is held today. They are the swing voters who will act as the king makers.
Jamaat's votes decreased to 1 percent from 2 percent last year. There seems to be a shift in Jamaat's votes to BNP, thus making Jamaat less relevant to BNP in the next poll.
Jatiya Party's votes seem to have decreased marginally to 5 percent. However, Jatiya Party will have more bargaining power in alliance building, as the difference between the AL and BNP is narrowing.
JI = Jamat e Islami
Govt
1. Jamat are heading to become a banned illegal organization in Bangladesh. The popular feeling amongst them now is so much that even a BNP government will not be able to undo any ban against them as the Islamic clergy, educated elite, civil society (maybe even elements of the military) will be totally against it.
2. Islamic clergy in Bangladesh i.e. Deobandis, Sufis, Ahlul Hadith will also pressurize any future BNP government to maintain the current ban on all books by Maudoodi (not that such a ban is practically enforcable but psychologically designates the writer, Maudoodi, a stigma and is an expression of condemnation).
Whether Pakistani liberals and moderates will be able to do such a thing in the future against the Jamatis there is unlikely though. However Pakistani progressives will definitely be heartened by the ban of the extremist party in Bangladesh.
Ershad may be the king-maker in the next Bangladeshi elections. The BNP may ditch Jamat as a party which can only help them to gain 1% of votes as opined in the economist.
Bangladesh's war-crimes trials: Bloodletting after the fact | The Economist
Former president, Ershad.
Jamat - who will be banned - are going through a natural process of losing support. They gained 4.6% in the last elections, 4.2% before, a poll a few years back showed them losing 2 percentage points from the 4.6% and now this poll shows a further 1% drop from that 2%. However 1% from a population of 150 million is numerically significant.
Jamat is fast becoming obselete in an ever increasingly more modern Bangladesh with a growing economy. It will also not be able to spread its fundamentalist message too much in a country where women are slowly but steadily gaining greater social power e.g. through their entrance in to the labour market. Women in western Europe were also second class but during the second world war they enjoyed their first mass exposure to the modern labour market when working in factories whilst their menfolk were at war. This however was not reversed and women did not return back to their houses after the war but continued to work.
The recent acts of violence by Jamatis against Hindus, policemen, acts of sabotage (which would lead them to being classified as a terrorist organization in many countries) is simply the last gasp of survival in a country where they are fast becoming a complete irrelevance.
daily star..................
