Hammer-fist
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Accuracy of poll
Jamati supporters on here may question the accuracy of the poll.
Here are some facts.
1. Jamat got 4.6% of the votes in the last elections, 2008.
2. In 2001 they gained 4.2% of the votes.
3. In 1996 they gained 8.6% of votes
4. In 1991 they had 12% of votes.
So in the space of 10 years i.e. 1991-2001 they lost around 8% of the votes.
This poll says instead of losing another 8% they have lost 3% from their 4.6% in 2008.
I think it is very possible that if they gained lost 8% of votes in the space of 10 years they can lose 3%.
However their power is disproportionate to their percentage of votes because:
a: They have support from overseas including parties aligned to the Muslim brotherhood and similar groups e.g. Saadet in Turkey.
b: They have support from the intelligence organization of one Saarc state.
c: They are organized and their supporters run hospitals, magazines and educational institutions.
d: They are prepared to engage in violence to further their agenda.
Despite that in the long run they are following a trajectory of continuous loss of support.
If their percentage of the votes in recent elections were shown in the form of a bar graph it would make it clearer.
Jamat - BNP relations
The BNP was traditionally an enemy of the anti-independence Jamaat. Jamaat itself was an ally of the Awami League in the past ironic given that Jamatis now call Awamis as "Hindu", "Indian-dalal" and Awamis call them as "ghaddars" (traitors) and "Pakistani dalals".
The BNP will definitely lose support if they are seen as too close to Jamaat. What the Economist - the same publication which said India played a part in the Awami League victory in 2008 (the point being is Jamatis cannot vilify it as a propaganda source) - is saying is that due to Jamat's very weak strength votewise, the BNP may not need them. The BNP association with Jamat is more of a liability than an asset.
However there are some in Bangladesh who assert that the BNP-Jamat relationship is akin to what they describe as an "America-Israel" relationship, i.e. they hold that Israel in effect runs the USA (I disagree but that's their thesis) and Jamat in fact runs the BNP in the sense that they exert huge control in terms of finance and "street muscle" (Shibir thugs).
With Jamat about to be banned then the BNP may become even more of a "Jamatified" party with a mass transfer of Jamatis to the BNP.
Jamatis ideologically?
With Jamatis soon to find that their organization will be banned (non-partisan civil society in Bangladesh will totally support the ban of an organization which carries out a campaign of terror against Hindus) what will happen to them ideologically?
Who knows.
However the fact that they have to do things such as visit Shahid minar (the square for 1971 martyrs in Dhaka) when in power shows that they cannot be too overt with their anti-Bangladesh ideology and in the face of huge popular opposition have to conceal their true colours.
Many Jamati leaders are in fact nothing but businessmen keen on money using Islam as a tool. The fact that they will most likely be banned permanently may make it harder for them to operate. They are prepared to send naive street thugs from Shibir to die as expendable pawns and cannon fodder, but with bans on their party and other things, life will be much harder. Life is hard enough as it is when the very word "rezakar" is now synonymous with traitor/murderer and it will only get harder.
This also includes their supporters abroad such as:
Mohammed Abdul Bari in the UK.
Moinudeen Choudhry in the UK.
and others.
Jamati supporters on here may question the accuracy of the poll.
Here are some facts.
1. Jamat got 4.6% of the votes in the last elections, 2008.
2. In 2001 they gained 4.2% of the votes.
3. In 1996 they gained 8.6% of votes
4. In 1991 they had 12% of votes.
So in the space of 10 years i.e. 1991-2001 they lost around 8% of the votes.
This poll says instead of losing another 8% they have lost 3% from their 4.6% in 2008.
I think it is very possible that if they gained lost 8% of votes in the space of 10 years they can lose 3%.
However their power is disproportionate to their percentage of votes because:
a: They have support from overseas including parties aligned to the Muslim brotherhood and similar groups e.g. Saadet in Turkey.
b: They have support from the intelligence organization of one Saarc state.
c: They are organized and their supporters run hospitals, magazines and educational institutions.
d: They are prepared to engage in violence to further their agenda.
Despite that in the long run they are following a trajectory of continuous loss of support.
If their percentage of the votes in recent elections were shown in the form of a bar graph it would make it clearer.
Jamat - BNP relations
The BNP was traditionally an enemy of the anti-independence Jamaat. Jamaat itself was an ally of the Awami League in the past ironic given that Jamatis now call Awamis as "Hindu", "Indian-dalal" and Awamis call them as "ghaddars" (traitors) and "Pakistani dalals".
The BNP will definitely lose support if they are seen as too close to Jamaat. What the Economist - the same publication which said India played a part in the Awami League victory in 2008 (the point being is Jamatis cannot vilify it as a propaganda source) - is saying is that due to Jamat's very weak strength votewise, the BNP may not need them. The BNP association with Jamat is more of a liability than an asset.
However there are some in Bangladesh who assert that the BNP-Jamat relationship is akin to what they describe as an "America-Israel" relationship, i.e. they hold that Israel in effect runs the USA (I disagree but that's their thesis) and Jamat in fact runs the BNP in the sense that they exert huge control in terms of finance and "street muscle" (Shibir thugs).
With Jamat about to be banned then the BNP may become even more of a "Jamatified" party with a mass transfer of Jamatis to the BNP.
Jamatis ideologically?
With Jamatis soon to find that their organization will be banned (non-partisan civil society in Bangladesh will totally support the ban of an organization which carries out a campaign of terror against Hindus) what will happen to them ideologically?
Who knows.
However the fact that they have to do things such as visit Shahid minar (the square for 1971 martyrs in Dhaka) when in power shows that they cannot be too overt with their anti-Bangladesh ideology and in the face of huge popular opposition have to conceal their true colours.
Many Jamati leaders are in fact nothing but businessmen keen on money using Islam as a tool. The fact that they will most likely be banned permanently may make it harder for them to operate. They are prepared to send naive street thugs from Shibir to die as expendable pawns and cannon fodder, but with bans on their party and other things, life will be much harder. Life is hard enough as it is when the very word "rezakar" is now synonymous with traitor/murderer and it will only get harder.
This also includes their supporters abroad such as:
Mohammed Abdul Bari in the UK.
Moinudeen Choudhry in the UK.
and others.