The mood doesn't count for shit, numbers do.
Barring a real catastrophe, Modi has 2019 all sewn up, 2024 is when the anti incumbency factor might hurt him/BJP.
In fact, even if we do get a catastrophe in the sense of an international crisis, it'll probably help him.
The mood of some communities counts for a LOT more than their numbers impact.
It's why some communities remain untouched by either side.
Cheers, Doc