I think this has been a very good discussion but there are in fact, many separate topics being discussed and this has caused some confusion. let me state these topics:
1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.
2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)
3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.
4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths
Now, briefly follow my thoughts on each of these
1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.
I do not know if we all remember the stark years that followed in the post Berlin decade. Pakistan was on a mentality of eating grass and still building nukes. And Pakistan was in deep financial trouble. India, Pakistan's biggest nemesis, meanwhile, was having an immense bit of trouble with keeping its Soviet aircraft operational. So, air power was not as pressing an issue as building strategic weapons against India (such as nukes, missiles, real heavy industries that give Pakistan a relevant industrial base).
Meanwhile, take the case of acquiring aircraft. the only viable alternative for PAF was the M2Ks. As a result, the French wanted way too much money, and when AZ came in as well, PAF had few options but any to call of the deal. 36 Mirages would not have made a difference to Pakistan's Air Defense, particularly given the circumstances of the country and foreign reserves (does anyone remember during Sharif's presidency that Pakistan virtually went bankrupt?)
Mastan Khan's high position misses this, and without getting personal, let me attempt my own analysis as to why. (My apologies in advance Mastan Khan, I mean you no disrespect). He startlingly comes up with the analogy of how, before he came the the US, he didn't see people looking at books to look for solutions to issues. This reminds me most of the typical case of Pakistanis coming to the US and being shocked and awed so much as to build up a psychological barrier resulting in a general inferior outlook when looking at Pakistan (after all, if they had been doing it remotely right, why haven't they reached the level I see here in the US?)
2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)
This is an interesting thought. I must venture here that the skill to make good commercial decisions is not part of PAF's training. This is a good point and deserves merit. The problem is, acquisitions are generally supposed to be a Defence Ministry issue (at least originally). Given the lack of faith there, PAF has, over time, been the focal point rather than any bureaucrat. I think everything in Pakistan suffers from this. The lack of commercialization is an immense handicap to Pakistan. Look at Al-Khalid, JF-17, small arms, ammunition, etc. Look at Fauji Foundation (what an immensely inefficient organization). You need the financially savy, entrepreneurial types to make things of this nature work. [Edit: Entrepreneurship is a valuable and key resource that is not recognized as such in Pakistan] You cannot train people in this, there is no course in the planet, not even in MIT or Harvard that teaches this. In fact, the furthest research in this field suggests that this is only built by factors that cannot be truly replicated:
1. Learning from a young age
2. Direct experience in selling
3. Soft Knowledge passed down from father to son about business
So much so, that top Entrepreneurship programs in the states often have a criteria to look into what experiences you've had to qualify you.
Pakistan, however, do have strong business traditions [Edit: amongst the civilian business population], in Karachi and in Lahore (more so in Karachi). Specially amongst the Mohajirs. [Edit: in these places they are more sophisticated in their approach than elsewhere] And there is the resource you can tap into (if you have the will and the organizational capacity).
3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.
I will spare no balls here. I believe it would be an extremely foolish move from a strategic perspective. I thought, PAF has truly made a strategic move in going for JF-17s, something which in my opinion is only second in importance to nukes. Getting Mirages would effectively neuter JF-17s, meaning there would not be enough funding for making R&D efforts for block upgrades, enough numbers for economies of scale, and R&D for their eventual replacement. [Edit: remember that replacements would need to be found eventually, and that would require investment in R&D now and over a protracted period of time]
Make no mistake, this is where traditionally Pakistan has been weak in [Edit: I mean making strategic decisions]. This is essentially symptomatic of the fact that Muslims of India and Indians generally, where not allowed to climb up beyond lower officer levels. Our military culture is that of a headless chicken, we've never properly learnt to cultivate strategic thinkers, essential for higher positions in all military offices (as well as civilian, but that's a lost cause at this point). This is why you see the fiascos of 1965 and 71 (from both the P and I sides) of virtually no real generalships, except for the Indians in 71 who actually thought outside the box [Edit: strategies used to invade East Pakistan]. Pakistani and Indian forces, virtually at every standoff, prepare themselves across the border to go at each other, without any real strategy or maneuver (or the most basic of concepts that each side already knows the other will perform)[Edit: and generally a low risk, calculated move that is almost inevitably going to lead to a stalemate]. No Rommels or Napoleons here. (But the PAF has been lucky here in some of its past leaders).
4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths
Now, the PAF understands this better than anyone else. They have had older Mirages for a very long time. They have seen all the pains, the ripoffs, the dime and nickeling. Some here are apt to give a comparison of Saabs for PAF AWACS and all kinds of other commercial equipment. But that is missing the point totally. This is because, specialized military hardware like supersonic fighter planes, are not built on standardized equipment. The very nature of such planes means you are stuck with single suppliers for many of your parts. Which means monopoly power. Which means you're going to regret it, particularly if you are not "one of them". And make no mistake, no matter how many times you reiterate that Pakistan is not an "Islamic state", and that you're "just like" Americans, British, etc. With all your clean shaved faces and your brand name clothing, you won't be one of them, and they'll single you out.
Over and out for now. Hope I have not caused too much of a storm here.
PS: I forgot to add, one more point - the cost of maintaining F-16s during the 90s was another cost factor for the PAF to be considered on whether to purchase M2ks
