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Pakistan's Mirage 2000 Saga

Some years back, both the Indian and Pakistan Air forces were interested to buy from Qatar. Pakistan obtained from libya and i think so deal with india cold'nt finalized, may be because of price or Pakistani Lobbying.
 
MastaanKhan
Okay first, i am not going to tolerate anyone dissing JF17. Notorious-eagle


Hello little brother,


What are you going to do to me---are you going to beat me up over a disagreement or be simply vocal about it. So what is this " I am not going to tolerate thing mean "!!!

Now when we flaunt our product in front of the world---we will have people who may not agree with what we say----and looking at the past 20 years history of PAF---there is nothing they say that can be trusted---till they prove otherwise.

If the paf is so honest---then why have they not told the truth about the fiasco of the f 16 sanctions to the pakistani public. Why have they been lying through their teeth all the time. Why have they not told the pakistani public that it was not the american congress that was vengeful in imposing the sanctions, but rather it was the foolishness of PAF to go forward knowing very well that the deal was DEAD. Venturing intio a dead deal with their feet first was challenging the integrity and safety of pakistan----but the paf kept on lying and lying for the longest period of time.

What is the biggest beaf that pakistani public has with the americans----why do the pakistanis hate the americans----why do the pakistanis cannot trust the americans---why------because of the F 16 sanctions of the 90's---because our own our dear PAF lied to us and never told us the truth---that, it was them who let us in a place of shame----.

Does anyone disagree that this truth should not be told to the pakistani public-----it is the right of pakistani public to know and let them make their decision-----it is their right to know the whole story and not the PAF version of it---the the pakistan can make the decision to whom to hate or not. Pakistani public deserves to know the truth---it is their right.

All of the millitary services have their own seperate procurement funds---PAF had enough funds to go the m2k way---why else would they be negotiating with the french---the deal went sour because of the scandal----which I firmly believe had no truth in it---it was started from across the border---and AZ already known for it was made the sacpegoat---and we the fools fell for it and chopped our own feet---cut our own nose to spite our face---wallah.

So, when BOGGED DOWN asks why are the M 3/5 etc being readied for air to air refuelling---their production line had come to an end a long time ago---then why do that---must be a solid reasons---.

Now coming back to m2k and jf 17-----if pak would have gone with the m2k---then there would never had been a need for a jf 17----why go to an inferior frame when you can get a superior aircraft 15---20 years ahead of it---when you can go BVR 5---8 years earlier why wait for it to come into play in a year or two from now----when you can have BVR missiles being in production for many a years---then why go for an inferior system sd 10 which is still in its infancy.

Even the israelis realized and came to their senses that it was fool hardy to pursue the KFIR----they didnot like the sanctions either---but then the jew being a jew could see the light at the farthest end of the tunnel and realized the futility of the venture---it dawned upon it that they would gain nothing out of going their own way ie the KFIR.


ARAZ-----the israelis went in to switzerland where they had found the place where the mirage blue prints were stored in boxes---befriended the manager of the safe storage place---and slowly starting moving stuff out in a VW bus. The total weight of the boxes was between 1 to 2 tons. It took them awhile---but they did it right under the noses of the swiss police---the manager was made to become sympathetic to the israeli cause----.

People also don't know that the french had also built some gun / missile boats for the israelis as well---they were also sanctioned---the israelis went into the shipyard---the boats were ready---they just told the authorites that they want to run regular checkups on the boats and make sure that they were sea worhty and everything was ok with them---so when the sanctions are lifted then they take them----the port authority let them into the boats---allowed them to take them out a short distance----well it was not a short distance---but a one way trip to israell---israel again took the material right from underneath the nose of the french intelligence agencies---now did they knowingly let them----that is up for debate.
 
With this logic PAF must be using their Mirage III/IV planes for paper weight as their production lines are closed away long back.
You either misunderstood my point to are trying to force-infer your idea from my post. I said no such thing about paper weights.

But in reality, as we are speaking, PAF is trying AAR on these type (two Mirage III is modified to get AAR probe for trial with Ukranian air refueler that PAF has ordered. Do you know why and how?
why: Yes, because the Mirages still have some time before we retire them. We will also use the experience the fit the JF-17s with A2R refueling.

How: It will be done by PAC. You do know that Mirage III is like a 40 yr old technology, right?

Do you know which make and type of air crafts PAF has mastery for overhauling, modification, R&D than any other air crafts in its inventory. Just think for a second why it is so? Now the next question would be: should PAF really go waste this skill when the saga of Mirage III/IV will come to end some day?
We also had the F-6 rebuild factory...does that mean we should stick to F-6s and F-7s?

Btw, as I said earlier Mirage III is 40 yr old technology and Mirage III is not equal to Mirage 2K.

God forbid if something go wrong with JF17 or J10 or china, I hope PAF can provide enough walls to each pilots (and Pakistanis) to bang their heads on. Though I do not blame only you to think in this line (to put all eggs in one basket) or blame PAF (its top decision makers are Pakistanis after all like you and me..) because it is in our gene. We only see either black or white, never gray. We either love or hate, never the middle path and than of course if something go wrong it is others faults. After doing slavery to US for 60 years, we found a new master China, who love us till the end of time and who has a magic wand and cure of all our problems.

Well, I have had enough....

PAF has ,under the contract I believe (correct me if I am wrong, the provision to go for 100% ToT and hence all the blueprints, etc. We should gear up our production level and capabilities so that in such a scenario we are completely independent.

J-10 is a different story. Tell me, is it worth while to buy costlier M2K at the expense of of J-10? Will the M2K be a counter to the Su-30 and the MRCA?

Bottom line is, if you can get cheap M2K well and good but its insane to go for 32 M2K for $3-4 billion while you can buy the same number of J-10s for around $1.5 billion.
 
All of the millitary services have their own seperate procurement funds---PAF had enough funds to go the m2k way---why else would they be negotiating with the french---the deal went sour because of the scandal----which I firmly believe had no truth in it---it was started from across the border---and AZ already known for it was made the sacpegoat---and we the fools fell for it and chopped our own feet---cut our own nose to spite our face---wallah.

It has been reported by many senior members at pakdef about the whole Zardari connection and how the price was floated and a few million were added overnight to the quoted prices.

Please do your homework.

Also PAF did not have enough funds....why else were they seeking a loan from the french?


Now coming back to m2k and jf 17-----if pak would have gone with the m2k---then there would never had been a need for a jf 17----why go to an inferior frame when you can get a superior aircraft 15---20 years ahead of it---when you can go BVR 5---8 years earlier why wait for it to come into play in a year or two from now----when you can have BVR missiles being in production for many a years---then why go for an inferior system sd 10 which is still in its infancy.
[/QUOTE]

right...and are you planning to induct 250 of those M2Ks? or are you planning to fly the F-7s, A-5s and Mirages III for the next 25 yrs too?

No offense but the one good thing about armchair generals is that you look at paper specs and make the decision without having to glance at your bank account.

My PoV: If we could or can get either new or second-hand M2K at "cheap prices", I am all for it. If you need to buy 32 planes for $3-4 billion, my answer is "Hell NO".


Even the israelis realized and came to their senses that it was fool hardy to pursue the KFIR----they didnot like the sanctions either---but then the jew being a jew could see the light at the farthest end of the tunnel and realized the futility of the venture---it dawned upon it that they would gain nothing out of going their own way ie the KFIR.

Israeli connection with US and Israeli economy is no match with ours. Its shame that such a small country with hardly any resources and in a constant war-like situation is far richer and more advanced then us but thats another debate altogether.

The bigger the economy, the more funds you can spend and the more leverage you have in case of sanctions...just look at India.
 
With this logic PAF must be using their Mirage III/IV planes for paper weight as their production lines are closed away long back. But in reality, as we are speaking, PAF is trying AAR on these type (two Mirage III is modified to get AAR probe for trial with Ukranian air refueler that PAF has ordered. Do you know why and how?

Do you know which make and type of air crafts PAF has mastery for overhauling, modification, R&D than any other air crafts in its inventory. Just think for a second why it is so? Now the next question would be: should PAF really go waste this skill when the saga of Mirage III/IV will come to end some day?



God forbid if something go wrong with JF17 or J10 or china, I hope PAF can provide enough walls to each pilots (and Pakistanis) to bang their heads on. Though I do not blame only you to think in this line (to put all eggs in one basket) or blame PAF (its top decision makers are Pakistanis after all like you and me..) because it is in our gene. We only see either black or white, never gray. We either love or hate, never the middle path and than of course if something go wrong it is others faults. After doing slavery to US for 60 years, we found a new master China, who love us till the end of time and who has a magic wand and cure of all our problems.

Well, I have had enough....

Bogged down.
PAF has maintained Mirages by buying mirages from where ever it can get hold of them and cannibalizing them. They have had 2 decent buys, Australian and Libyan where they got a fair bit of spare engines and other spares but otherwise in my humble opinion, it has been a difficult exercise for PAF.
Nobody denies PAF 's expertise with the mirages, but the question is, whether it is worth paying to establish a new infrastructure for a different plane(as 2K5/9 is a totally different beast from the old3s and 5s)whose assembly line has already been closed and which was not half as popular as the old3s and 5s,then pay for its further upgradation, learn new tactics on this plane only to find ourselves in the same situation in 2025 where we are now. Additionally, not very many countries have transitioned onto Mirage m2k5/9 from 3s /5s or F1s. so you will still have a headache sourcing parts.
I know and understand peoples reservations about Chinese equipment, and the fact that in international politics there are no permamanent friendships, just interests, but this is probably the only option available to us at the moment. i need not explain our hesitancy with regards to f16s.
PAF may well have a second or third tier plan which may well include inducting m2K5/9 if anything goes wrong with thunder or J10, but probably this would still be my second or third plan.
We are a relatively small country with meagre resources and a strain on our resources with defence sprendings due to hostile environment. Other than seeking help, our only other option would be to turn ourself into India's doormat. Given the choice between India and China, I know what I would choose, What do you suggest.
WaSalam
Araz
 
Well whats done is done, there is no point in hanging to the past. We need to move on and try to recover the lost time as much as we can. Keep whining about the past will leave us no where. Now we have to look towards the future which surely lies in the JF-17 and FC-20, block-52 if thing went smooth with the americans.
 
The question still remains whether there is any role for M2K5/9 in PAFin the next few years. the price being right, PAF may well go for it, especially if FC20 get s bogged down with some problem, otherwise probably no.
My 2 paisas worth
Araz
 
i guss , the real quetion is that how to kill, this unconfirmed bubble! which is out of PAF's future inventry list? anyway!:lol::azn:
 
PAF operates many air crafts including fighters and supporting crafts which production line have been stopped log time ago. Even it is in process to induct SAAB 2000 as AWE&C, IL78/IL76 as air refueller and cargo as as well sister forces are inducting P3, Cobra helicopters, C130 etc which production lines are already stopped long time ago. It is hard choice of life for PAF and sister forces, it is not ideal situation but have to live with it. So Mirage 2K production lines are stopped is a very lame excuse. Though I agree price can be an issue and should be within means of PAF budget and Pakistan. As I said many times JF17s and J10s are right decisions and PAF should stick to it and optimized it as good as possible. But the fate of Pakistani nation should not depend on one nation or its good grace rather we should carefully choose to have multiple options and should never make the same mistake of 80s when PAF was focused one and only for F16s.

Since I started to visiting Pakistan defence forums since 1997, I am and was always in favour of PAF procuring Mirage 2K as in addition of current ongoing projects. During late 90s many used to say, it is no point because we are getting FC1 and J10 soon within few years. And this induction date is continuing extending every years by few years, now current estimate of J17s in 2010 and J10s in 2015. Though I am not very optimistic (judging the current challenges for Pakistan and China regarding these projects) about these recent estimates either because building new fighters take time and we all should give the time it takes to mature. But within this time frame Pakistan was almost dragged into war for three times. God forbid, if it was not international politics (without discussing here much), the consequence for PAF and Pakistan could have been very disastrous (though not a cake walk for enemy either).
 
MastaanKhan

what are you trying to prove here?? you do know that you will be making a total fool out of yourself if you happen to have such kind of conversation with PAF officers.
your long posts are really boring perhaps you should think of publishing a book with ayesha siddiqui and this time target PAF and hopefully like her previous book this should also gain a lot of audience from our next door neighbor.
MK2 would have never ever been the best choice given the limited budget restriction of PAF! lets just fantasies that pakistan is really a rich country then yes it would have been a real great combination of F-16 MK2 but lets get with the reality!
Like i have said before and many other members that PAF mainly relied on nuclear deterrence which made even the best MKI stay off the bay.. in this 10-15 years possess PAF has been able to save alot of money and now willing to spend that money wisely and keeping the long aging fleet replacement in mind.

and oh... 1.5-2 billion dollars 36 MK2 with MICA < 150 JF-17 with MICA
 
I think this has been a very good discussion but there are in fact, many separate topics being discussed and this has caused some confusion. let me state these topics:

1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.

2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)

3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.

4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths

Now, briefly follow my thoughts on each of these

1. Why PAF did not acquire the M2Ks during the 90s.

I do not know if we all remember the stark years that followed in the post Berlin decade. Pakistan was on a mentality of eating grass and still building nukes. And Pakistan was in deep financial trouble. India, Pakistan's biggest nemesis, meanwhile, was having an immense bit of trouble with keeping its Soviet aircraft operational. So, air power was not as pressing an issue as building strategic weapons against India (such as nukes, missiles, real heavy industries that give Pakistan a relevant industrial base).

Meanwhile, take the case of acquiring aircraft. the only viable alternative for PAF was the M2Ks. As a result, the French wanted way too much money, and when AZ came in as well, PAF had few options but any to call of the deal. 36 Mirages would not have made a difference to Pakistan's Air Defense, particularly given the circumstances of the country and foreign reserves (does anyone remember during Sharif's presidency that Pakistan virtually went bankrupt?)

Mastan Khan's high position misses this, and without getting personal, let me attempt my own analysis as to why. (My apologies in advance Mastan Khan, I mean you no disrespect). He startlingly comes up with the analogy of how, before he came the the US, he didn't see people looking at books to look for solutions to issues. This reminds me most of the typical case of Pakistanis coming to the US and being shocked and awed so much as to build up a psychological barrier resulting in a general inferior outlook when looking at Pakistan (after all, if they had been doing it remotely right, why haven't they reached the level I see here in the US?)

2. PAF's ability to understand commercial aspects (Mastan Khan's Warrior Mentality Hypothesis)

This is an interesting thought. I must venture here that the skill to make good commercial decisions is not part of PAF's training. This is a good point and deserves merit. The problem is, acquisitions are generally supposed to be a Defence Ministry issue (at least originally). Given the lack of faith there, PAF has, over time, been the focal point rather than any bureaucrat. I think everything in Pakistan suffers from this. The lack of commercialization is an immense handicap to Pakistan. Look at Al-Khalid, JF-17, small arms, ammunition, etc. Look at Fauji Foundation (what an immensely inefficient organization). You need the financially savy, entrepreneurial types to make things of this nature work. [Edit: Entrepreneurship is a valuable and key resource that is not recognized as such in Pakistan] You cannot train people in this, there is no course in the planet, not even in MIT or Harvard that teaches this. In fact, the furthest research in this field suggests that this is only built by factors that cannot be truly replicated:

1. Learning from a young age
2. Direct experience in selling
3. Soft Knowledge passed down from father to son about business

So much so, that top Entrepreneurship programs in the states often have a criteria to look into what experiences you've had to qualify you.

Pakistan, however, do have strong business traditions [Edit: amongst the civilian business population], in Karachi and in Lahore (more so in Karachi). Specially amongst the Mohajirs. [Edit: in these places they are more sophisticated in their approach than elsewhere] And there is the resource you can tap into (if you have the will and the organizational capacity).

3. Whether to buy Mirages now, as a supplement to F-16s, JF-17s, FC-20s and legacy types.

I will spare no balls here. I believe it would be an extremely foolish move from a strategic perspective. I thought, PAF has truly made a strategic move in going for JF-17s, something which in my opinion is only second in importance to nukes. Getting Mirages would effectively neuter JF-17s, meaning there would not be enough funding for making R&D efforts for block upgrades, enough numbers for economies of scale, and R&D for their eventual replacement. [Edit: remember that replacements would need to be found eventually, and that would require investment in R&D now and over a protracted period of time]

Make no mistake, this is where traditionally Pakistan has been weak in [Edit: I mean making strategic decisions]. This is essentially symptomatic of the fact that Muslims of India and Indians generally, where not allowed to climb up beyond lower officer levels. Our military culture is that of a headless chicken, we've never properly learnt to cultivate strategic thinkers, essential for higher positions in all military offices (as well as civilian, but that's a lost cause at this point). This is why you see the fiascos of 1965 and 71 (from both the P and I sides) of virtually no real generalships, except for the Indians in 71 who actually thought outside the box [Edit: strategies used to invade East Pakistan]. Pakistani and Indian forces, virtually at every standoff, prepare themselves across the border to go at each other, without any real strategy or maneuver (or the most basic of concepts that each side already knows the other will perform)[Edit: and generally a low risk, calculated move that is almost inevitably going to lead to a stalemate]. No Rommels or Napoleons here. (But the PAF has been lucky here in some of its past leaders).

4. Whether an aircraft type, that is out of production (particularly a French one), is viable in terms of long-term maintenance, tooling, parts supply and upgrade paths

Now, the PAF understands this better than anyone else. They have had older Mirages for a very long time. They have seen all the pains, the ripoffs, the dime and nickeling. Some here are apt to give a comparison of Saabs for PAF AWACS and all kinds of other commercial equipment. But that is missing the point totally. This is because, specialized military hardware like supersonic fighter planes, are not built on standardized equipment. The very nature of such planes means you are stuck with single suppliers for many of your parts. Which means monopoly power. Which means you're going to regret it, particularly if you are not "one of them". And make no mistake, no matter how many times you reiterate that Pakistan is not an "Islamic state", and that you're "just like" Americans, British, etc. With all your clean shaved faces and your brand name clothing, you won't be one of them, and they'll single you out.

Over and out for now. Hope I have not caused too much of a storm here.

PS: I forgot to add, one more point - the cost of maintaining F-16s during the 90s was another cost factor for the PAF to be considered on whether to purchase M2ks
 
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Over and out for now. Hope I have not caused too much of a storm here.
I don't know about "storms", but most of your generalizations do suck.

I would write out lengthy a point by point rebuttal elucidating all the errors and faulty conclusions, but I'm sure there are many others here who are fevereshly tapping away at their keyboards ready to let fly a real storm. So I'll just let them at it.
 

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