TechLahore
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Frankly, this has all become comical now. Every few days there is some great disclosure that seeks to associate the Pakistani state with the Taliban and hence apply pressure on Pakistan to do task a, b or c. In most cases, Pakistan has resisted these pressures. In brief, I think NATO have failed and are now looking to Pakistan to do their job for them. Evacuating border posts and allowing Afghans to cross into Pakistan while the Pak Army was acting in FATA can be seen as trying to ship the problem to Pakistan where the PA would be forced to handle it. Or it can be seen as conspiracy. I see it as the former.
This underlying thread of running away and leaving Pakistan to deal with the aftermath is now visible in myriad ways... And by the way, this is what we have been saying all along. That ultimately NATO/ISAF will cut and run, but we are here to stay. Essentially since NATO have been roundly beaten and couldn't even manage to put a leash on a former convenience store operator/UNOCAL employee with no political base in Afghanistan who they themselves planted as President, it is now time to run off and make the Afghan scenario Pakistan's problem. Public support for this campaign is running low, Obama's deadline is approaching, Gates is getting nervous, McChrystal is feeling pressured, Marjah didn't quite work, the violence in Afghanistan is increasing and so are casualties and the capacity building initiatives for Afghan institutions have basically yielded naught. The warlord militia infested "Army" and "Police" will survive for about 15 minutes post NATO.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/14/marjah-operation-not-acco_n_498142.html
http://www.truth-out.org/marjah-success-military-hell-residents57229
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/05/25/showtime_in_kandahar
There is now infighting going on within NATO institutions themselves. They can't even manage to speak with one voice. Just a few days ago the UK Government was attempting to extend an olive branch to the ISI by saying it believed the Pakistani state was not involved in any way with the Mumbai episode. Now this two bit nonsensical report comes out which uses Taliban leaders as sources. I didn't know the West was now trusting the word of Afghan Taliban leaders. Because according to these very same sources, almost all of Afghanistan is under their control, the West will lose the war, the surge will fail and more body bags will be sent back and eventually the mighty west will fall. Let's believe the Taliban in all their rhetoric... why be selective? If it had to come to this - believing the Taliban - there was no need for the war at all. Because Mullah Omar had given his word that he would hand Osama over for a trial in a muslim country and had also sworn up and down that the Taliban didn't have anything to do with 9/11. This trust of the Taliban, I'm afraid, is coming a little too late and may be a large scale example of Stockholm syndrome.
I find one line of reasoning in this paper particularly interesting... that until the ISI stops supporting the Taliban the insurgency won't end, and by implication, victory will not be had by NATO. Well, now! Sounds to me like someone is worried about failing miserably in Afghanistan and is trying to find scapegoats to blame the impending failure on. There are already media reports out that the Marja op did not go as planned, and that the Kandahar operation will employ a different tactic. There is also a public statement by Robert Gates that unless the military - McChrystal specifically - makes progress by the end of this year, the American people will no longer support the war.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...public-support-for-Afghan-war-is-limited.html
All of this must be putting tremendous pressure on the NATO/ISAF military leadership. They are basically staring failure in the eye, if one pieces together their own statements and reports as briefly mentioned above. Now would be a good time to start coming up with a contingency plan; a set of scapegoats to blame everything on when disaster finally strikes.
This article is nothing but desperation and confusion mixed together. I fear the NATO Afghan campaign will be a larger-than-life playback of the Blackhawk down episode where Pakistani soldiers had to go in under fire and bring the NATO/Allied soldiers safely back home. Oh well. Such is our burden I suppose.
http://mtrtmk.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/pakistan-army-saves-american-marines/
This underlying thread of running away and leaving Pakistan to deal with the aftermath is now visible in myriad ways... And by the way, this is what we have been saying all along. That ultimately NATO/ISAF will cut and run, but we are here to stay. Essentially since NATO have been roundly beaten and couldn't even manage to put a leash on a former convenience store operator/UNOCAL employee with no political base in Afghanistan who they themselves planted as President, it is now time to run off and make the Afghan scenario Pakistan's problem. Public support for this campaign is running low, Obama's deadline is approaching, Gates is getting nervous, McChrystal is feeling pressured, Marjah didn't quite work, the violence in Afghanistan is increasing and so are casualties and the capacity building initiatives for Afghan institutions have basically yielded naught. The warlord militia infested "Army" and "Police" will survive for about 15 minutes post NATO.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/03/14/marjah-operation-not-acco_n_498142.html
http://www.truth-out.org/marjah-success-military-hell-residents57229
http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/05/25/showtime_in_kandahar
There is now infighting going on within NATO institutions themselves. They can't even manage to speak with one voice. Just a few days ago the UK Government was attempting to extend an olive branch to the ISI by saying it believed the Pakistani state was not involved in any way with the Mumbai episode. Now this two bit nonsensical report comes out which uses Taliban leaders as sources. I didn't know the West was now trusting the word of Afghan Taliban leaders. Because according to these very same sources, almost all of Afghanistan is under their control, the West will lose the war, the surge will fail and more body bags will be sent back and eventually the mighty west will fall. Let's believe the Taliban in all their rhetoric... why be selective? If it had to come to this - believing the Taliban - there was no need for the war at all. Because Mullah Omar had given his word that he would hand Osama over for a trial in a muslim country and had also sworn up and down that the Taliban didn't have anything to do with 9/11. This trust of the Taliban, I'm afraid, is coming a little too late and may be a large scale example of Stockholm syndrome.
I find one line of reasoning in this paper particularly interesting... that until the ISI stops supporting the Taliban the insurgency won't end, and by implication, victory will not be had by NATO. Well, now! Sounds to me like someone is worried about failing miserably in Afghanistan and is trying to find scapegoats to blame the impending failure on. There are already media reports out that the Marja op did not go as planned, and that the Kandahar operation will employ a different tactic. There is also a public statement by Robert Gates that unless the military - McChrystal specifically - makes progress by the end of this year, the American people will no longer support the war.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...public-support-for-Afghan-war-is-limited.html
All of this must be putting tremendous pressure on the NATO/ISAF military leadership. They are basically staring failure in the eye, if one pieces together their own statements and reports as briefly mentioned above. Now would be a good time to start coming up with a contingency plan; a set of scapegoats to blame everything on when disaster finally strikes.
This article is nothing but desperation and confusion mixed together. I fear the NATO Afghan campaign will be a larger-than-life playback of the Blackhawk down episode where Pakistani soldiers had to go in under fire and bring the NATO/Allied soldiers safely back home. Oh well. Such is our burden I suppose.
http://mtrtmk.wordpress.com/2010/01/07/pakistan-army-saves-american-marines/