Pakistan's Declining Economy Since 2008

[karan.1970]

The figures I have quoted are official, and used as part of a memorandum of understanding agreed between the IMF and Govt of Pakistan in 2008 as part of the bailout package.

UNTRUE....

Another source that corresponds to Google numbers (based on the CIA fact book)
Pakistan GDP (official exchange rate) - Economy

and your worldbank source seems to back that up as well

Report

 

[rubyjackass]

The abominable and cheap posts against India continue from Mr.Haq

Lets look at his posts clearly:

he says:



This line is directly copied without any citation to a professor fro Harvard. The professor is Indian, and he had published this article in 1992

Secondly, the figure is misquoted!!!! It is 55billion and not 100
"India has received more foreign aid than any other developing nation since the end of World War II--estimated at almost $55 billion since the beginning of its First Five-Year"
Foreign Aid and India: Financing the Leviathan State

Mr Riaz Haq, if you do not reference the above and correct it I will report you for plagiarism, unless you can prove the link I have posted is wrong!

what level do people go to? this is so cheap and disgusting!!!!!

How did this post miss people's attention?

 

[MilesTogo]

So what did democratic government in Pakistan do differently than musharaf?

 

[RiazHaq]

These facts were acknowledged (grudgingly) by the present government in a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for 2008/09-2009/10, while signing agreement with the IMF on November 20, 2008. The document clearly acknowledged that "Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1)


Here's the link to Memo of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) signed by Pakistan and IMF in Nov, 2008:

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/LOI/2008/pak/112008.pdf

 

[RiazHaq]

user "saab" deserves a medal for this:

It was on dictator Musharraf's watch that Pakistan saw unprecedented deregulation of the mass media, prolific growth, and vibrant debate that had never happened before him. None of the "democrats" or dictators before him gave such a gift to the people of Pakistan.

It is this media freedom that I think is Musharraf's best legacy that can not be easily denied or reversed. It'll serve Pakistan well by shining light on the misdeeds of Pakistan's leaders now, and in the future.

 

[TechLahore]

We in our own small way are trying to pay some of that back now by trying to help countries like Afghanistan by ploughing some capital into i t at its time of need (despite opposition from Pakistan). Hopefully this giving back will increase in years to come as we grow more and are able to reduce poverty in our own country

You have announced roughly $1.5B of investments in Afghanistan. We have made $500M of investments in the same period. It remains to be seen who has the staying power in Afghanistan to continue to "plough capital into it".

BTW, is the money spent on constructing the extensive network of "consulates" and other facilities used by Indian - shall we say, "government employees" - part of this $1.5B?

Am interested in knowing what happened to the aid given to Pakistan. Why is its economy despite having wonderful decades in the last century, is in a major downspin right now?? Why is it still going after USA(who public opinion in Pakistan hates) or other Friends Of Pakistan asking for absurd amounts??

I fail to see your point here. Historically, Pakistan has maintained a higher rate of growth than India. Even if you look at the WoT period from 2000-2007, we were growing at a very rapid 7+%. It is only the last 2 years that a slow down has occurred. One, mind you, that has already ended with increasing rates of growth being forecast by the IMF and others.

So what exactly is your point? Are you somehow contending that because Pakistan's economy hasn't grown very fast over just the last 2 years - for reasons that include a global downturn and a military operation on our western border - that this somehow indicates mismanagement of funds? What a bogus and ridiculous assertion.

By that coin, India has been mismanaging aid, food assistance and other largess thrown its way for over 60 years! You want to use the last 2 years to justify a 63 year trend?

Please dont try and ignore your screw ups by finding less flattering reasons for your neighbours growth. Wont help you except for may be one night's sleep

As for our "neighbour's growth", I couldn't care less. Talk to me when you have a city in India that comes even remotely close to Islamabad. Or when you have a highway network like ours. Or when you can reduce begging and homelessness to the per-capita levels of Lahore. Until then, you can take your growth and enjoy it on your own...

 

[RiazHaq]

@Tech and @Riaz

I think you are absolutely right. We got the aid and used it for what it was supposed to be used and grew economically in an impressive manner. So thanks for all the countries that gave that aid to us.

I agree with you, but not entirely. While India has done a better job of utilizing aid to improve self-reliance (particularly during the Green Revolution often cited as a good example of effective use of foreign aid), it has yet to wean itself off of foreign aid and soft loans from IFIs. But India is making good progress toward that goal.

Pakistan's performance has been uneven at best. In certain periods, like 1960-68, and 2000-2007, Pakistan made great strides, but such gains were reversed at least partly by what followed these periods. Pakistani politicians have failed the people repeatedly because of their incompetence and greed. Indian politicians, particularly the top leaders, have done better for their people.

 

[Neither Right Nor Wrong]

These facts were acknowledged (grudgingly) by the present government in a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for 2008/09-2009/10, while signing agreement with the IMF on November 20, 2008. The document clearly acknowledged that "Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1)


Here's the link to Memo of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) signed by Pakistan and IMF in Nov, 2008:

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/LOI/2008/pak/112008.pdf

Well it is said "Devil lies in the detail"
Pakistan's GDP grew 60 billion dollars to 170 billion dollars b/w 2000-07 that means pakistan's economy grew by 13.75% annualy...is that a fact?

 

[toxic_pus]

Well it is said "Devil lies in the detail"
Pakistan's GDP grew 60 billion dollars to 170 billion dollars b/w 2000-07 that means pakistan's economy grew by 13.75% annualy...is that a fact?

Google's data is inflation UNADJUSTED figures. Thus India records 20% growth annual average growth rate, while China a whopping 33% growth rate during the period 2000 - 2008.

It appears that during the period 2000-2007 all countries have recorded some growth. Click for comparison between China, India, Pakistan, UK, Germany and France.

Not sure how much credit Musharraf deserves.

 

[TopCat]

Pakistan and BD economy are similar in nature. Both the countries produce similar products, export similar and import similar and almost of the same volume. Also economic backgrounds are similar. Why PK failed to sustain global fallout and BD just shown resillience? Why change of government in Pakistan have any impact on economic growth while in BD it has very or no impact at all. Why in a fine morning we see PK is growing 8% per anum but by nighfall it gone negative when BD keeps it slow and steady and increasing every year. When BD projects to get its growth rate to 8% by year 2013 and 10% by year 2017 by attaining certain parameters when PK has no direction at all and dont know what will take them out of this difficult situation. Should they learn something from their smaller brother the way PK's president learned to say "No aid but trade" from BD?

 

[TopCat]

Well it is said "Devil lies in the detail"
Pakistan's GDP grew 60 billion dollars to 170 billion dollars b/w 2000-07 that means pakistan's economy grew by 13.75% annualy...is that a fact?

Rebasing was done in this time period.

 

[dvk1982]

In spite of increase of British aid to $500 billion a year, India will remain the biggest recipient of Japan's official development assistance (ODA) in the near future. Since Japan's first ODA to India in 1958, the country has received monetary aid worth Rs 89,500 crore (Rs 895 billion) so far, according to Noro Motoyoshi, Japanese consul general in Kolkata. In 2008, Japan's ODA to India was up by more than 18% compared to 2007 at Rs 6916 crore (Rs 69.16 billion).

Haq's Musings: Foreign Aid Continues to Pour in Resurgent India

I guess here people are only worried abt making a preconceived point than understanding what they are copy-pasting..... $500 BILLION per year

It may be 500 million.. gud god..that's one heck of a jump in false propaganda or lack of knowledge in Billion-million

2nd point - I am pointing to last decades growth and aid, loans. I don't understand why this Haq's has got problem with India's LOAN program, if he didn't have then he wudnot have tried to paint it in bad light !! LOANS are never bad by themselves ... and india pays interest on them doesn't bankrupt !!

Coming to the last point of AID. Development isn't mutually exclusive by saying that u do X and then only will achiveve Y as some are suggesting here by bringing Moon mission. Sceientific development is always good for the nation and it sud always be encouraged.And again when we talk abt Aids, the best unbiased way to compare it to use Aid in % of total gdp then again it depends if we consider organized aid or unorganized aids.... at least that's the right direction to begin with...

 

[karan.1970]

These facts were acknowledged (grudgingly) by the present government in a Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) for 2008/09-2009/10, while signing agreement with the IMF on November 20, 2008. The document clearly acknowledged that "Pakistan's economy witnessed a major economic transformation in the last decade. The country's real GDP increased from $60 billion to $170 billion, with per capita income rising from under $500 to over $1000 during 2000-07". It further acknowledged that "the volume of international trade increased from $20 billion to nearly $60 billion. The improved macroeconomic performance enabled Pakistan to re-enter the international capital markets in the mid-2000s. Large capital inflows financed the current account deficit and contributed to an increase in gross official reserves to $14.3 billion at end-June 2007. Buoyant output growth, low inflation, and the government's social policies contributed to a reduction in poverty and improvement in many social indicators". (see MEFP, November 20, 2008, Para 1)


Here's the link to Memo of Economic and Financial Policies (MEFP) signed by Pakistan and IMF in Nov, 2008:

http://www.imf.org/External/NP/LOI/2008/pak/112008.pdf

Fair source Riaz. Apologies for doubting the source earlier.. However, any thoughts on how come these numbers are different from the CIA fact book, google and world bank numbers with such a large margin..

 

[dvk1982]

Mr. Haq, you are twisting numbers and figures by a huge margin. Not just for India but also for Pakistan. I request all members to cross check his figures by some reliable source.

Your last post itself was exaggerated.
GDP of Pak in 2000 - 74 billion (you said 60, dif 23&#37
in 2007 - 143 billion (you said 170, diff 19%)
today - 168 billion
Real and Nominal GDP of Pakistan
Google - public data

Man his posts ezp with figures are as liberal as one can get with no mathematical sense or knowledge...

if we say 60 becomes 170 in REAL terms in 7 years which is almost 3 times .. which suggests THAT THE PAKISTAN's REAL GDP growth was no less than 25% per ANNUM (do the math) and mind you it's not even nominal as Hag claims this is real growth (above inflation).

Seems in order to make a point u reduce ur adversaries numbers and inflate ur own numbers... and then lecture abt ingenuity...

 

[karan.1970]

You have announced roughly $1.5B of investments in Afghanistan. We have made $500M of investments in the same period. It remains to be seen who has the staying power in Afghanistan to continue to "plough capital into it".

BTW, is the money spent on constructing the extensive network of "consulates" and other facilities used by Indian - shall we say, "government employees" - part of this $1.5B?

Its fine if india is not able to stay in afg(though I doubt it). My point here was that despite all the detractions, India has moved away from being helplessly dependent on aid (as in late 80's and early 90s) and is slowly moving into the zone of providing some financial help to its friendly nations.

On the destination of this financial help to Afghanistan, its not the expense of govt of India in Afg, but the money provided for development activities..For example..
In January 2009, India completed construction of the Zaranj-Delaram highway in southwest Afghanistan near the Iranian border; it is building Afghanistan's new parliament building set for completion by 2011; it is constructing the Salma Dam power project in Herat Province; and it has provided support in the areas of health, education, transportation, power, and telecommunications.

But I guess you already knew this and the statement was just to poke a little..

btw the $ 500 million you talked off is for the govt /people of Afg or the funding towards helping Afghan Taliban to overthrow the current govt??

I fail to see your point here. Historically, Pakistan has maintained a higher rate of growth than India. Even if you look at the WoT period from 2000-2007, we were growing at a very rapid 7+%. It is only the last 2 years that a slow down has occurred. One, mind you, that has already ended with increasing rates of growth being forecast by the IMF and others.

So what exactly is your point? Are you somehow contending that because Pakistan's economy hasn't grown very fast over just the last 2 years - for reasons that include a global downturn and a military operation on our western border - that this somehow indicates mismanagement of funds? What a bogus and ridiculous assertion.

No I am not contending that at all. The topic is on the amount of aid recvd. So if you open the links I provided in my post in response to Riaz, you will see that while the official development assistence to India went down by 15% (from 1.4 billion to 1.2 billion) between 2000 and 2008, The aid to pakistan went up by 300% (from 700 million to 2.2 billion) in the same period.. (Pl note this does not include military aid)


And while you mention the gdp growth of 7%, you can not ignore the GDP dampner called inflation rate which has been as high as 24% in Pakistan in certain years..

And the state of economy of pakistan today is fairly visible to all...

By that coin, India has been mismanaging aid, food assistance and other largess thrown its way for over 60 years! You want to use the last 2 years to justify a 63 year trend?

Not at all.. but then economy of India today is what it is and so is economy of pakistan for all to see..

As for our "neighbour's growth", I couldn't care less. Talk to me when you have a city in India that comes even remotely close to Islamabad. Or when you have a highway network like ours. Or when you can reduce begging and homelessness to the per-capita levels of Lahore. Until then, you can take your growth and enjoy it on your own...

It wasnt me who started contending that the growth of India is due to aid from rest of the world.. Think it was you..And if you try and highlight selective areas of affluence in Pakistan, then dont forget that india is 3rd in the world in terms of no of billionnairs.

And roads are not the only component of infrastructure. Will do you well to comapre the reach of Indian railway network to what you see in pakistan...Also do look up some of the recent World economic forum reports on both India and Pakistan to get a perspective..