Jigs
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Pakistani Milgem Likely in Trouble | TRDEFENCE
In the aftermath of the Pakistan floods, some observers say defense spending may be cut to aid reconstruction efforts, but in the end, objections to job losses and security concerns may protect defense budgets.
Pakistani opposition leader Nawaz Sharif, who was ousted by the military in 1999, has called for cuts in defense spending to aid reconstruction. An ardent foe of the military, he stands accused of corruption and tax evasion. Although the messenger may be dismissed, it is harder to dismiss the message.
Defense spending for 2010-11 grew by 30 percent over a year earlier, but cuts could affect some large-scale programs. Retired Air Commodore Kaiser Tufail said this may have to be the case, but the decision lies with the service chiefs.
Weak civilian governments are generally reluctant to interfere in the defense spending plans, he said. We have a precedent in the past where the Army chief postponed indefinitely the building of the new GHQ complex in Islamabad after the earthquake of 2005. Now, the defense forces are again confronted with a situation that is gravely reminiscent of the previous catastrophe, or worse. Under the circumstances, there is a need to put a moratorium on all development plans for at least a year. In addition, drastic austeri ty measures have to be put in place, he said.
Other analysts are unconvinced that calls for defense cuts will gain traction.
South Asia analyst Brian Cloughley said it is most likely that the population in general will not support defense spending cuts, mainly because the military is held in high regard. Although Sharif is more popular than [President] Asif Zardari, that doesnt say much. Politicians will jump on whatever bandwagon they think is most appealing to the voters, but I dont think interfering with defense would be a popular choice. So the notion is unlikely to gain ground. Neither did he think that the Armys most high-profile projects, the main battle tank and armored personnel carrier programs, would be affected.
The Zarrar and Khalid [tank] programs are not exactly wealth hazards. That is one of their attractions, Cloughley said. And we must remember that they are quite labor intensive the workers at HIT [Heavy Industries Taxila] wouldnt be enthralled by their jobs being cut. And theyre voters, too. Salma Malik, assistant professor at the Department of Defence and Strategic Studies at Islamabads Quaid-e-Azam University, is similarly unconvinced.
Personally, I feel there will not be any defense cuts because of the possibility of unrest in some areas, especially areas which have been hit by the insurgency, she said. The problem is far deeper than just flood relief. She said defense spending may actually be increased. Areas that had been the focus of anti-terrorist operations were also badly affected by flooding, and with the police unlikely to be able to handle any potential unrest, Malik said, the Army would probably have to step in to contain the situation.
The possibility of widespread civil unrest, and the need to carry on relief efforts, may also form opportunities for terrorists, who recently carried out bombings in Lahore and Quetta.
The Armys operational budget is unlikely to be cut, Malik said, and the Air Forces Chinese projects the JF-17 Thunder, KJ-200 airborne early warning and control and FC-20/J-10 aircraft are generally safe.
These are some of the things which are critically required, she said. The Air Force will not allow them to be affected. At worst, China will probably be more flexible with regards to payment options, which would work very well in Pakistans favor. Tufail, however, said he believes there is a case for renegotiating the F-16C/D Block 52 delivery schedule along with the payment of the remaining tranches, and that the JF-17 program would also have to be put on a go-slow, instead of the accelerated program currently underway. Likewise, he said, any new contracts, especially of costly avionics packages, need to be delayed, as it would be tantamount to mocking the post-flood reconstruction efforts which are expected to run into billions of dollars, he said.
If any service is likely to suffer, it is the Navy. Usman Shabbir of the Pakistani Military Consortium said the Navys next-generation submarine contest has been decided by default.
The German submarine deal, I am certain, is now dead after these floods, he said, referring to neverconcluded negotiations to purchase the HDW Type-214 that had been selected by the Navy. It had been expected the deal would be signed in 2008 or 2009.
Though a blow to the Navy, he does not think it to be a crippling one.
China has invested a lot of money and effort into submarine design and development over the past two decades, and even though it is still not the level of European subs, it is inching closer, he said.
A Chinese option already seems to have been selected to make up for the demise of the Pakistan-Turkish corvette program. The Pakistan-specific design, based on elements of the Turkish Milgem F-100/Ada (Island)-class corvette, was presented to the Navy in 2008 and a contract expected to be signed in 2009.
At best, it has been postponed, but considering the marked reluctance of officials in both countries to comment on its status, it has most likely been quietly buried.
Instead, July saw a decision to build two 500-ton Chinese-designed fast attack craft roughly similar in dimensions and capability to the Greek Navys Super Vita/Roussen patrol boats.
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Even now though the Air Force procurement looks to slow too.
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