Pakistan: The New Egypt on the Indus

[Olympus81]

On Twitter, yes! Please keep living in your delusions if it helps you sleep better. Most Pakistanis would instinctively know that once the cursed-Establishment is removed, there is no more 'Pakistan' left.

Thats a myth you’ve grown to believe. Pakistan can survive and prosper with a toned down establishment surely. Keep living in the 80s. The world has moved on. Common sense would suggest the path Pakistan’s establishment has taken is akin to a failed experiment but yes keep that veil of ignorance on. Not my problem.

 

[Sanwal!!]

Egyptian model only works because of massive aid by gcc. Morsi has squandered all of that aid on dead investments like submarine jets etc(despite having no adversaries) and on new capital city which most egyptians cannot afford.

Sooner or later, Sri Lanka situation will be repeated. Egypt will default ones gcc emirs get tired of funding, then riots will follow and sisi will flee with billions of dollars and settle down in dubai or zurich or paris

Story of most of the dictators in a nutshell. It appears the fuji junta wants to replicate Zia model minus religious card.

 

[Meengla]

Thats a myth you’ve grown to believe. Pakistan can survive and prosper with a toned down establishment surely. Keep living in the 80s. The world has moved on. Common sense would suggest the path Pakistan’s establishment has taken is akin to a failed experiment but yes keep that veil of ignorance on. Not my problem.

Talk to me in five years, please.

The world and the people are basically the same, Twitter or not. People look for the basics before they get thinking about grand ideas. I think you would know about the 'Laszlo pyramid of needs'.

Pakistanis are not revolutionaries and even the 'revolutionaries' of Sri Lanka who toppled the Rajapakshas didn't come out much ahead and I hear the old older is comfortable in power in there!!

Starting on wrong premises would lead to wrong conclusions!

 

[SaadH]

At least Egypt-on-Indus sounds better than Afghanistan-on-Indus.

Couple more years of PDM/Sepoy gov't and Pakistanis will be wishing it was Afghanistan on indus.

Afghanistan has less inflation and cheaper food and fuel than Pakistan as we speak.

They are hosting Chinese and other investors to rebuild Afghanistan and have already embarked on building the longest man made river in Asia.

 

[indushek]

China is very much in the foray, in the scheme of things.

It's like Pindi is leveraging US to get closer to China, the CPEC investement and all that, and at the same time leveraging China making US perturbed and coming up with funds/aid and bailouts.

Billions of USD's poured in during WOT with Musharraf at the helm, and earlier during Zia eara when US funded the Jihad in Aghanistan, but that aid/CSD, funds didn't trickled down to the masses, only a select few got the benefits, the generals mostly.

This whole 'rentier' on the lease, pandering to others, sense of entitlement, looking for approval from others/west, analogy is flawed and not sustainable, not pluralistic, not empowering to the masses, never ever a country flourished without the sovereignty and the power to take independent decisions.

Pakistan needed a bottom up, a pluralistic, holistic development model that benefits millions upon millions of people, unlike this trickle down effect model where money flows from a few rich to the poor.

Can't disagree on the last part, but beg to differ slightly with the first part.

Its true that Pakistan has leveraged China and US very well, and China is still in the game and not out of it. However its fast losing ground, Xi should have followed Deng's advise but went all Mao.

The West is no longer going to trust China after this, and is actively trying to hamper them in every possible way. Its true that friend shoring and near shoring won't yield results soon, but the outflow has started already. It will keep happening till the West has a viable second option to China. In a way the Chinese helped it too, by moving up the value chain and their low end manufacturing has become not so competitive like before.

Further China isn't a consumption driven economy, so the more their exports get hit the more they will suffer. The BRI came about exactly to address this, so that they spend the money outside the country and make up for the resting coins in coffers.

Even on BRI they have messed up, by making others sign agreements at higher interest rates. It still could have worked if they hadn't gone all aggressive or wolf warrior with West, and kept manufacturing for another decade at least.

I am writing all this to show that CPEC or BRI, it doesn't necessarily have to make them profits. The money was spent as they had to in near term, but the projects not yielding financial results on long-term is a certain loss strategically. I think PA knows this and realizes this, which is why they aren't that concerned about what the Chinese think. Which means it won't take much for Pakistan to ditch China, when the West asks for it. The West is where everyone heads to, so this is a given but not today or not tomorrow.

The common man always suffers in any country, and its the Elites or those closer to power corridors who make the most monetarily. Its the eternal truth and will not change ever. Hierarchy at its best.

 

[indushek]

On Twitter, yes! Please keep living in your delusions if it helps you sleep better. Most Pakistanis would instinctively know that once the cursed-Establishment is removed, there is no more 'Pakistan' left.


Glad your eyes opened like mine did.


In general, you are correct. However, I think the recent help given to Pakistan by America, the GCC and China are supposed to be the last such help--only to help avoid Pakistan the default, which, please note you all, Imran and his PTI fanbois were desperately craving!! They would lie here about the default but many, if not most, were wishing for Pakistan to default. And among such 'friends' of Pakistan, the expats sitting in Western countries are the true 'patriots': Watching from a safe, comfortable distance the burning of Pakistan. Who needs enemies with friends like these?!!

That's what they say, but it won't happen. Pakistan will keep getting help.

It's not just the nuclear assets it has, that could get into wrong hands fear that is bandied around. US will never let that happen, as they have always rated Pakistan's nuclear asset safety higher than India's. The only reason they would do that, is if they have some form of control over it if not the conspiracy theory of them having the detonators.

Pakistan sits on a land that is at crossroads, so it has been a land of interest for everyone who wants to move between different parts of Asia. Its close relation to China is another concern, and the West cannot have it fall into China's lap. Then there is the linkage with a global hotspot Afghanistan, and its now fractured relation with Taliban.

It will keep popping up on West's radar, and then there is the Saudi angle as well. Saudi's wont let their hold go of Pakistan, given the deep relations and their need for nuclear backup. Khaan saab has damaged relations with these two temporarily, but Munir saab seems to have got it back on track again.

About PTI yeah they appear very hyper in their reactions, but then that's how we people of East behave lol. Its in the DNA, and I mean hero worship. Am sure they will calm down, with time passing.

 

[indushek]

Have to agree.

Asim has managed things until now when you see through the prism of the institution. He has managed to find a way to stifle the most popular political party. Found a way to flaunt the SC verdict of holding elections.

Also got rid of PDM and now has a proper cuck to do his bidding. All this while keeping some sort of decorum within the army.

He should look to consolidate further by replacing any miscreants within the bureaucracy and consolidate the army’s businesses.

A bit of a paradox at the expense of Pakistan.

Lets see what the future holds.

His only worry right now, is the border problem with Afghans. Unless he finds some solution fast, he won't be out of woods yet. TTP and BLA are the next lot of worries I guess, which Pakistan has to get a control over.

Its true that US along with US and UAE is helping Pakistan, to stay afloat but they don't need a financially and strategically strong Pakistan for that. Even if strained US and the Talibs have a sort of relation now, so America won't necessarily side with either.

Am not suggesting it will happen, but even if Pakistan gets fractured by some sort of quasi rule by TTP and BLA in certain areas the outside powers won't blink an eye much. Each of the three countries have their use for Pakistan, and as long as it stays afloat in some form they will be good with it. So its now on Munir saab to make sure, Pak stays afloat in its entirety.

 

[Azadkashmir]

ppl should burn the fauji crops . burn the tractors that are digging the gold.

 

[ThunderCat]

At least Egypt-on-Indus sounds better than Afghanistan-on-Indus.

Or Bangladesh on the Indus

 

[ziaulislam]

They are replicating the tried and tested model in Balochistan to Pakistan proper.

The so called Egyptian model was a Pakistani model from the start, which Egypt copy pasted. The Egyptian model works because US Aid is pumped on a consistent basis along with oil.

The model would not work in Pakistan for a variety of reasons. Balochistan which is rich in mineral resources isn’t ripe for investment. Rest of Pakistan barely has any significant natural resources. So the next logical step was to usurp prime agricultural land.

Its not like its in the middle of the sea. Plus, the Pakistanis for better or worse have seen the establishment naked in its true form. In essence a critical mass has been achieved whereby establishment cannot control all of Pakistan nor the public can control the establishment. Its a stalemate, a fatal one that threatens the state’s survival.

On contrary I disagree
Pakistan has ample natural resources
Biggest one being cheap labor sending large remittances
But we also have water, agriculture and cheap gas/hydro

 

[SaadH]

Would you be willing to send you sister or daughter to tahrir square or whatever if was in Egypt ?

Meanwhile in Pak, PTI supporter women actually lead a mob into attacking a corps commanders residence. Your fanboys looted, attacked troops burnt vehicles and buildings alike.

Do that in any state and let's see you talk.

I myself witnessed the shit show near the corps Comd house.

Your leader isn't as clean as you claim. I myself supported PTI. I myself witnessed corruption and the violence lead by Iks regime.

Just coz chacha Imran has some swag doesn't mean he is a demi god.

Oh that's all they did, how many faujis, leave alone chor commanders did they kill?

Too bad they didn't burn your mecca AKA GHQ down, which they should have done.

Any other state is not a fascist state killing, kidnapping and subjugating its own people. Sepoys of GHQ have been doing it with impunity since early 50's. And if the people burned room or two in a lousy chor commander house all hell broke lose...

If Pak was Egypt, we'd be fuked.

Yeah Pakistanis will get to eat roti twice a day and have shelter over their heads...something sepoys are doing their best to take away.

 

[Mirzali Khan]

We should tag the Egyptian members of the forum to get their opinion, since they would know more about Egyptian political dynamics.

@The SC @Gomig-21 @Ghostkiller @sami_1 @Ramses Akhenaten Ahmose

Does the article correctly make the analogy of Pakistan being a "new Egypt"?

 

[waz]

Egyptian model good grief....

Egypt in the Balance?

Egypt faces an economic crisis that risks fuelling unrest. The International Monetary Fund demands reforms in return for loans, while the authorities seek to broaden their base through a much-criticised national dialogue. Foreign partners should cautiously support this balancing act to enhance...

www.crisisgroup.org

The future looks bleak with these lot running the show. Private investment will disappear.

 

[N.Siddiqui]

A contrarian view...

Egypt: The new Pakistan on the Nile

As Gen. Sissi taking over the reign in Egypt was many decades behind the new(read old) normal in Pakistan, the Army rule.

The reason Egypt is not in that abysmal, in freefall and in a tailspin position as Pakistan and doing well, relatively.

 

[FuturePAF]

Reminiscent of the plot of the Star Wars movies, down to the vote of No confidence and the “I love Democracy” speech by the PDM, I mean Chancellor Palpatine.

Stay safe Jedi, This is only the beginning of the struggle to freedom.