indushek
SENIOR MEMBER
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HiKashmir is not unattainable, but dependent on so much going right for one side and so much going poorly for the other, for a long enough period of time.
China’s entry into the conflict has afford Pakistan some breathing space, for now. But this now just raises the stakes for Pakistan to economically reform. If India is not seen as a positive participant during these reforms, India’s development will be the impetus for pushing decision makers in Pakistan to try to catch up, once reforms have begun.
Akin to Japan after WW2, the businessmen of Japan of the 1950-1980s worked on a war footing, to catch-up with the U.S. (The Japanese business books of the era talked about “frontal attack” and “Backside attack” when explaining strategies of competing). Watch the 1986 American movie Gung-Ho get a sense of the difference in mindset by that time (it’s a lighthearted comedy but the message comes through).
China too has been building its society in a similar manner from 1978 onwards. The tech cut offs to China are driving them to build up their local industries, while Japan has stagnated, for amongst many reasons, that their relationship with the US was not zero-sum.
India should welcome this opportunity to become part of BRI, because if both Pakistan and China don’t see India as part of the solution, they will see India as part of the problem. (Considering India’s moves in the SCS and vis a vi Taiwan in recent days, it seems like it has chosen the adversarial path, making it in China’s interests to build up Pakistan)
The reason China has gotten into Kashmir issue, is to secure its own interests and not Pakistan's. If ever GB and Azad Kashmir are taken over by India, which is a big if mind you, then comes the question of Aksai Chin. The land that Pakistan gifted to China on its own.
Indian presence in GB is even more dangerous for China, compared to Azad Kashmir. Chinese feeling that with rising India, these events might come to pass some day. So they are trying to slow this down, as much as possible. Something they have been successful with India so far.
India is clearly on a adversarial path with China now, there is no doubt. Diplomatically no one will say this, but it is what it is. If there was ever any thought in India, that China and India can be friendly it was lost with Galwan. I thank them for this wake up call they gave, to every dimwit politician in our country. Who also were the reason for neglect of the Eastern states vis a vis infrastructure.
So no I don't think India will ever join this, not at least in near future.