Pakistan Military options in Kashmir today - a perspective

[Shah_G]

I love this comment.

You should! And be glad that we are.

 

[Baltistan scouts]

If scorpean subs are seem anywhere near karachi then missiles should be immediately be fired towards Bombay they are for coventional use aswell .the indians may have intelligence on ground troops gathering which country doesn't. Pakistan should attack across international border as well as kashmir pre emptive strike across whole area capture as much ground as possible which is possible offence as defence.use the israeli doctrine of war as we are in same situation

 

[Signalian]

@Psychic

India used another faction under the guise of Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan against Pakistan Army.

These were Tibetan Guerillas.

After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was imprisoned in West Pakistan, more than 1,000 of his supporters escaped to India. Many of them were stationed near by the SSF camp.We trained them in military combat. They were known as the Mukti Bahini.Some of them were related to Mujibur Rahman. They later acted as our guides and contact persons during the war though they did not actually fight with us.Though it was us who fought the real war and suffered the casualties, all the credit has later been given to the Mukti Bahini (because the Tibetan Force was involved under the guise of the Mukti Bahini).


https://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-a-war-which-was-not-theirs/20120110.htm#1

When Pakistan sent Mujahideen from Afghan War in Indian Kashmir, India got a bloody nose in 90's. India then accused Pakistan of infiltration and cross border movement, where as India had done the same in 1971 and very cleverly forgot about it, sweeping the matter under a rug away from world's eyes. Now India harbors BLA,BRA etc in baluchistan and TTP in KPK, but if Pakistan does the same then Pakistan has to be black listed.

whats your take on this ?

PS: and stop being so abusive, it makes your posts look weak.

 

[Psychic]

When Pakistan sent Mujahideen from Afghan War in Indian Kashmir, the India got a bloody nose in 90's. India then accused Pakistan of infiltration and cross border movement, where as India had done the same in 1971 and very cleverly forgot about it, sweeping the matter under a rug away from world's eyes. Now India harbors BLA,BRA etc in baluchistan and TTP in KPK, but if Pakistan does the same then Pakistan has to be black listed.

whats your take on this ?

The thing is, we Muslims fighting for liberating our lands will always be labeled as terrorists. They do not apply this term for any other nation fighting for the right of self determination but Muslims.

The primary reason for this is the changed post 9/11 environment and America's declaration of the international crusade against Islamic "fundamentalism"; Bush junior openly declared it a crusade. Communism was yesterday's deamon, Islamic terror is today's bogeyman. They needed another enemy and they found one. Muslims retaliating against foreign occupation and oppression are labeled as terrorists throughout the word --- Hezbollah, Hamas, Taliban or Hizbul-mujahideen. We need to realize that the West is no longer our ally and it will side with India whenever it could. The West was continuously trying to coerce us into taking action against Afghan Taliban and Haqqani N/W so that we could become enemies and start fighting each other; now, the US is sitting on the negotiating table with yesterday's "terrorists" and fundamentalists which it wanted us to fight. We never had any beef with the Afghan Taliban as our interests and their's converge; however, there was an appeasement brigade here which advocated for action against every faction on Pakistani soil and that too at the same time. That could've made matters worse. Today, the same appeasement brigade is advocating for tough action against inactive former jihadis who in the past were associated with Kashmir jihad. Any such action will have disastrous consequences. We will be stoking a fire in our own house to appease others. The popularity of Pakistan among the Kashmiris (both AJK and IOK) will take a significant hit. We must withstand the pressure.

India has done a splendid job in building her soft image and portraying her enemies as terrorists/terror heavens. India's job has been made easier by the fact that it is a lucrative market of over a billion people. The West or even our Muslim brothers will not risk damaging their relations with India over Kashmiris or Pakistanis. Whenever some Western entity or polity condemns India's actions in Kashmir (Jeremy Corbyn for instance), India uses the catch word "Islamic terror" and the staged show of Pandit "genocide" to downplay her atrocities. So far, India has gotten away with everything including systematic employment of rape and sexual abuse as a weapon of counter insurgency. Just imagine if a Muslim country were doing this to it's non-Muslim inhabitants, we would have witnessed another East Timur or Darfur by now. The West which holds sway over world politics will always be biased in favor of India and there is nothing we can do about it. We can however, lessen this bias through diplomatic campaigns, awareness programs, narrative building and pressure building. We also need to stop getting defensive whenever confronted with "Islamic terror organizations" propaganda. If the West considers the French resistance as heroes then we should consider the Kashmir resistance as heroes as well. In any case, at the end of the day, we will never be able to convince them that Kashmiri armed struggle is not terrorism and is justified as per international law, Geneva conventions and UN resolutions; because of the innate bias of the West against the Muslims.

India has made herself important for the world. It has gotten away with everything: genocides(Gujrat, Khalistan, Nellie), state terror(Kashmir) and a general oppression of minorities. The countries which refused visas to Modi rolled red carpets for him once he became the PM of India. They went as far as signing a nuclear deal with non-NPT India making it a member of NSG. India had been carrying out a proxy war against Pakistan right under the nose of the US. All of that demonstrates new alignments in the region.

We Muslims must see who is our friend and who isn't. When India attacked in Balakot, several world powers including the US, Russia, France and Germany declared that India has the right to "defend" herself and Pakistan must "do more against terror safe heavens." They didn't give any lose any sleep over a nuclear country bombing another nuclear country and to our horror, they sided with the aggressor. When we retaliated, they urged both sides to observe caution.

We have the following possible scenarios:
1- We can hope that India doesn't attack us in the future and wait for her internal divisions to weaken her. In the meantime, we make our country stronger on every front.
2- We can wait for an Indian attack and be on the defensive. It might prove to be costly for us as they will attack on the time and place of their choosing.
3- Launch a preemptive attack if our intel is strong. Air superiority will be the key. Anyone who wins in the air will decide the course of action on the ground. International pressure would not allow either side to cross the nuclear threshold, so we will have a limited time to make as much gains as possible and stop the enemy from doing so so that we can have a better position at the negotiating table.
4- If India tries a demographic engineering, the valley population will be pushed towards the heights closer to the LOC. That will provide us an excuse to start a guerrilla war. If, we have the edge and deterrence in the air, then the war will be limited to low-intensity guerrilla war and won't escalate to conventional level. That is where the international pressure, diplomacy, narrative building and our ability to withstand international pressure will come into play. We can literally pour thousands of Pakistani mujahideen within months as we did in the past. Most of the funding came from mosques and public donations, the same can be re-started. This will though, dent our image and hurt the secular brigade.

India used another faction under the guise of Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan against Pakistan Army.

These were Tibetan Guerillas.

After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was imprisoned in West Pakistan, more than 1,000 of his supporters escaped to India. Many of them were stationed near by the SSF camp.We trained them in military combat. They were known as the Mukti Bahini.Some of them were related to Mujibur Rahman. They later acted as our guides and contact persons during the war though they did not actually fight with us.Though it was us who fought the real war and suffered the casualties, all the credit has later been given to the Mukti Bahini (because the Tibetan Force was involved under the guise of the Mukti Bahini).

Everyone does that. From the Contras and drug lords of South America supported by the CIA to white Christian American individuals fighting alongside the Kurds.

But when we do it, we are the most evil of the beings for doing that in their eyes.

There might be a very limited number of Tibetians because of their distinct facial features. The total Mukti strength was around 100k.

 

[Signalian]

Straight Answers for employment of Pakistan Army in war against India on Kashmir.

 

[Esgalduin]

Pakistan army should increase size of army to indian army levels to counter indian threat on international border.also targeting of loc fence to destroy it should become priority

How exactly do you propose Pakistan does that? We'll never be at parity with the Indians in terms of manpower. It's not a question of patriotism, but of differences in population sizes. There is no way Pakistan can increase its military's size to match the Indians, not even if it introduced mass conscription.

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

@Signalian can u tell about Pakistan 's offensive through Jammu like u started the thread by telling about offensive through Valley

 

[R Wing]

How?

Without weapons and training, the only way they can assist is by facilitating the invading forces by providing them lodging facilities, food and shelter(esp useful for special forces). Even if weapons are provided on an emergency basis, not much can be expected from untrained people or people with rudimentary training. Maybe, the numbers of invasion troops can be swelled by the induction of local people, but when one can't be certain how they'll react to mortar or arty round (run away or hold fast) so it remains a gamble.
Furthermore, 4-5km is still the mountains, not the valley which is boiling --- the reaction of those people might be different than the reaction of the valley dwellers. We must also remember that Kashmir is not a homogeneous entity, Ladakh has never seen an uprising till now, Jammu remains pre-dominantly Sikh/Hindu region. The valley has a strong support for Pakistan today but it is much deeper than 5-6 km.
Ground needs to be prepared for that.

As we speak, there are only around 400 armed fighters inside IOK, most of whom are lightly armed, lack proper training and seem to be unfamiliar with the intricacies of guerrilla warfare bar a few top leaders like Naikoo. Indian army has more than enough manpower required to crush even a well trained guerrilla force of that number. Unless the LOC is softened and safe heavens plus volunteers provided on this side of the border to initiate a well organized uprising in IOK before we launch an actual invasion, we can only hope for food, shelter, intel and navigation. We can muster 25k-40k armed volunteers within 2-3 months who can be used in IOK as a guerrilla force (based on past estimates, we did have much more than that number of armed Mujahideen from Punjab, AJK and KPK)

In any case other than limited asymmetric warfare, the role of airforce will be the deciding factor. Whoever achieves air-supremacy is bound to win. IMO we should've spent more on PAF and less on PA
We musn't forget that AJK is our first line of defence which protects Pakistan's geographic vulnerabilities in the North; Water from there is our lifeline which is threatened over and over again by India.

How have we missed each other on the forum for this long?

Pakistan's best hope has always been through asymmetric means yet our total surrender to the gods of FATF and Western diplomatic pressure means that even our covert support to the brave, indigenous insurgency in IOK has been dwindling.

 

[CriticalThought]

Its best for PA to conduct offense before IA makes its move. This is not just to take war on enemy's turf, doing as much damage as possible to weaken offensive strength of the enemy, buying time to strengthen own position and defenses, force the enemy to go on defensive, maintaining choice of place of attack and luring in enemy reinforcement in this sector instead of letting enemy choose to use those forces in some other theater of war. If IA manages to break PA's offensive and chances are very bright for that, then PA forces start to deploy back to rear positions, delaying enemy advance during retreat. This just offsets IA's plans for conducting offensive and gives PA a chance to capture any enemy territory if possible. On the defensive, PA has better chances of success. This way maybe 4-7 days at start of war are lost in this cat and mouse game. PA should be able to defend positions in mountains for next 2 weeks, the withdrawing forces joining the reinforcements which are already manning defensive positions. Three weeks would have passed by then. This is worse case scenario when PA starts the offensive and loses all gains. If FCNA starts the offensive, while another infantry Division (such as 7th Infantry Division) acts as reserve and takes up defensive positions behind FCNA, then there are chances that Pakistan can defend the upper AJK region. If 7th Infantry is standing behind 12th Infantry Division as reserve, then FCNA has to rely on GB scouts for manning defensive positions. If FCNA gets run over, then its up to the GB scouts and withdrawing FCNA forces, which could be 50% remaining of the total strength that started the offensive.

The issue is mobility again; penetrating 5-6 km inside enemy territory will take hours especially if some sort of defense infrastructure like bunkers, MG positions, mortar dig-outs are in place. Back this with artillery fire and it may take up to 10-12 hours to achieve breakthrough.

Winter is a bad option for war in mountains. It not only affects mobility, it strains lines of supply whether animal or mechanical or aerial. Animals will need double food rations, veterinary medicines and some sort of covering (clothing), which means extra weight already. Mechanical transport like jeeps, trucks etc will need to traverse through snowy, wet and slippery roads. Plus the roads will need to be kept free from enemy fire, whether light arms or artillery fire. I can tell you right now, there will be hardly any aerial flights by helis for supplies, citing bad weather conditions everyday. Night operations will become more hectic and tough, not only due to snow but also drop in temperatures. Double rations, double medicines, extra barrels for rapid fire weapons which could freeze and more supplies for keeping hard shelters warm/extra clothing and gear. The good thing is that weather conditions will affect both armies. The Army which is well prepared to handle adverse weather conditions will come on top.

Shock and awe is achieved through surprise of mobility and suppression of firepower. Both of which are hard to achieve by both armies. Moving artillery in mountains is another headache. Roads are good, be mindful that IAF will strike and damage roads, cause land slides which will take Engineers few or many hours to clear. Mules can draw artillery on dirt tracks, but that will take even longer. There will be ammunition and spares also, which will need to be transported. AD will have tube launched (Anza/Stinger) and AAA weapons (35 mm and 40 mm). Some of this equipment could be taken apart and then assembled when required to be used. Engineers will need to move own equipment to build shelters, build bunkers, repair roads, repair bridges etc.

This is why helis are needed and IA/IAF has a bigger inventory than PA/PAF. While PA uses pack howitzers, IA has got the modern M-777 light howitzers. Back in good old days, PA transported Field Gun 130mm piece by piece through Mi-17's. 130 mm is not a howitzer, PA now uses Chinese 122 mm which can achieve elevation angles required in mountains. IAF not only operates Mi-26 but also CH-47's now, both are heavy Lift helis.

The only major advantage that PA holds is that NLI and GB scouts are composed of personnel and troops from Azad Kashmir. Their bodies are suited to the weather conditions, their grooming is composed of playing in mountains as teens and they have a good sense of navigating in Mountains. I am not sure how many kashmiris from IOK join IA.

If 34th Light Infantry Division gets in action and uses Helis to deploy troops inside IOK, then FCNA automatically gets a head start and will face minimal resistance, since the brunt of IA and BSF waves will be faced by sections/platoons/companies of LCB of 34th LID. A medium transport heli can carry 10-25 troops, a light transport heli can carry 3-4 troops. We are talking about northern kashmir, so probably light transport heli (Fennec, Ecureuil), 2 of them to drop a section strength (8-10 troops) at a peak. For a platoon (25-30 troops) level, 6 light Helis will be required. A medium heli ( Z-9, AW-139, Bell-206, Mi-17, Puma) could carry and deploy more troops but its to be seen if they can achieve altitudes. Catastrophe cannot only occur if these helis are shot down by IAF or IA AD, or through accidents in weather, but it will also occur if FCNA cannot relieve the LCB troops under 12-14 hours. By that time, LCB would have faced causalities with depleting ammunition and chances of them being over run or captured are bright. This is very risky but do able if no other alternate is there. India will probably direct BSF towards these peaks and use Regular IA forces to defend and then counter attack FCNA which by that time should be starting its attack.

PAF has to play a major part; firstly achieving air superiority for a few hours till deployment by helis is completed. Then PAF is required to conduct 2-3 sortie ground strikes at the location held by enemy formation when FCNA starts its attack. This will save lives of own soldiers. Followed by Artillery strikes, enabling FCNA to move forward under cover. Remember that FCNA is just 3-Brigade strength and it has a vast area of responsibility. FCNA has to maintain its strength amidst the setbacks of sick/wounded/killed soldiers. If LCB sitting at peaks is able to stop IA from reinforcing CFL with additional troops, then LCB has completed its first major task. If furthermore LCB can start targeting roads and intersection, completely blocking movement and provide all recon reports to FCNA, then it would help PA make gains inside IOK.

The above involves different types of weaponry, different types of forces and different tactics compiled over a broad strategy to make inroads into IOK that can lead to success in Operations.

When you can't swallow something whole, break it down into bite sized chunks. And the very first bite sized chunk is Srinagar and adjoining flat areas surrounded by mountains. We need a mass mobilization strategy to be able to air drop at least a division's worth directly around Srinagar and then do a pincer from the West. Here are the steps:

1. Red demarcates Srinagar and surrounding flat areas. We start with aerial strikes to soften up enemy air defences and ground fortifications.

2. Swiftly followed by air drop of at least a division, backed by air power.

3. Black arrow represents the Western flank of the pincer. The Indian troops in Poonch, Rajouri, Noushera, Sunderbani will come under attack by PA forces from both ground and air, while PAF maintains air superiority and provides air cover to the division around Srinagar. We need transport aircraft able to carry Thermobaric weapons to take out large concentrations of IA moving towards our positions in Srinagar.

4. But the most important part is to be able to hold this in the long term. India has captured Siachen, it has solidified its positions in Kargil without any response from Pakistan. It's time we capture territory and hang on to it without giving in to international pressures, or threats of escalation, or even direct offense by IA in other theaters.

If the above can be achieved, then the rest of the mountainous terrain should be taken through systematic aerial bombardment with thermobaric weapons, followed by aerial assaults by helis, and finally dropping troops through helis. It would be a long, drawn out process.

The other strategy is the slow and gradual take over of Indian positions along the border, in effect ending the cease fire and maintaining an endless war of attrition. We would need to hold new territory without giving up what we already have. This also means withstanding long term international pressure, and threats or actual escalation in other theaters.

Finally, there is the highly radical solution. For example, perform geo-analysis of the mountains, tunnel beneath them, and use nukes to trigger seismically weak positions causing large scale casualties. Of course, there will be both civilian and military casualties.

How have we missed each other on the forum for this long?

Pakistan's best hope has always been through asymmetric means yet our total surrender to the gods of FATF and Western diplomatic pressure means that even our covert support to the brave, indigenous insurgency in IOK has been dwindling.

Our problem isn't FATF or Western diplomatic pressure. Our problem is treasonous leaders: Musharraf, Zardari, Nawaz, Imran, and Bajwa. Leaders who have no vision, no desire, no motivation for actually solving the Kashmir issue. We could argue all day long on the forum, while these leaders enjoy Dubai, London, 90, Banni Gala, and GHQ, help India gain a seat on the Security Council, violate Pakistan's vested interests by launching superficial claims of 'environmental terrorism' when our sovereign territory has been attacked, and self-congratulate themselves because Trump offered mediation while India revokes article 360. If these leaders could have their way, Pakistan would have officially given up its claims on IOK, and Pakistani actresses would be dancing semi-naked in Bollywood numbers. I mean, what more is there to be said when the Chief Marshal Law Administrator (in effect), or Chief Executive Pervaiz Musharraf tells us on national television that it is impossible for us to do anything about Indian aggression because 'their soldiers sit on reverse slopes and fire on our positions'. Apparently, all India needs to deter our Chief Executive and former SSG Commando is firing from 'reverse slopes'. What more is there to be said?

 

[Sal12]

Pak needs to increase the strength of its army by adding at least 200K. Together with FC and rangers then Pak will have a chance for any offensive against India otherwise Pak will always remain a defensive force.

One more benefit of increasing the army by 200K is that Indian war rhetoric will stop eventually which is only due to disproportionate number of troops between 2 sides.

 

[R Wing]

When you can't swallow something whole, break it down into bite sized chunks. And the very first bite sized chunk is Srinagar and adjoining flat areas surrounded by mountains. We need a mass mobilization strategy to be able to air drop at least a division's worth directly around Srinagar and then do a pincer from the West. Here are the steps:

View attachment 604322

1. Red demarcates Srinagar and surrounding flat areas. We start with aerial strikes to soften up enemy air defences and ground fortifications.

2. Swiftly followed by air drop of at least a division, backed by air power.

3. Black arrow represents the Western flank of the pincer. The Indian troops in Poonch, Rajouri, Noushera, Sunderbani will come under attack by PA forces from both ground and air, while PAF maintains air superiority and provides air cover to the division around Srinagar. We need transport aircraft able to carry Thermobaric weapons to take out large concentrations of IA moving towards our positions in Srinagar.

4. But the most important part is to be able to hold this in the long term. India has captured Siachen, it has solidified its positions in Kargil without any response from Pakistan. It's time we capture territory and hang on to it without giving in to international pressures, or threats of escalation, or even direct offense by IA in other theaters.

If the above can be achieved, then the rest of the mountainous terrain should be taken through systematic aerial bombardment with thermobaric weapons, followed by aerial assaults by helis, and finally dropping troops through helis. It would be a long, drawn out process.

The other strategy is the slow and gradual take over of Indian positions along the border, in effect ending the cease fire and maintaining an endless war of attrition. We would need to hold new territory without giving up what we already have. This also means withstanding long term international pressure, and threats or actual escalation in other theaters.

Finally, there is the highly radical solution. For example, perform geo-analysis of the mountains, tunnel beneath them, and use nukes to trigger seismically weak positions causing large scale casualties. Of course, there will be both civilian and military casualties.



Our problem isn't FATF or Western diplomatic pressure. Our problem is treasonous leaders: Musharraf, Zardari, Nawaz, Imran, and Bajwa. Leaders who have no vision, no desire, no motivation for actually solving the Kashmir issue. We could argue all day long on the forum, while these leaders enjoy Dubai, London, 90, Banni Gala, and GHQ, help India gain a seat on the Security Council, violate Pakistan's vested interests by launching superficial claims of 'environmental terrorism' when our sovereign territory has been attacked, and self-congratulate themselves because Trump offered mediation while India revokes article 360. If these leaders could have their way, Pakistan would have officially given up its claims on IOK, and Pakistani actresses would be dancing semi-naked in Bollywood numbers. I mean, what more is there to be said when the Chief Marshal Law Administrator (in effect), or Chief Executive Pervaiz Musharraf tells us on national television that it is impossible for us to do anything about Indian aggression because 'their soldiers sit on reverse slopes and fire on our positions'. Apparently, all India needs to deter our Chief Executive and former SSG Commando is firing from 'reverse slopes'. What more is there to be said?

Agreed.

 

[Pakistani Fighter]

1. Red demarcates Srinagar and surrounding flat areas. We start with aerial strikes to soften up enemy air defences and ground fortifications.

Ladakh is a flat area?

 

[Baltistan scouts]

How exactly do you propose Pakistan does that? We'll never be at parity with the Indians in terms of manpower. It's not a question of patriotism, but of differences in population sizes. There is no way Pakistan can increase its military's size to match the Indians, not even if it introduced mass conscription.

What makes you say that are you on drugs .pakistan population is 210 million raising an army of 1 million men is very possible and should be done.just to name s a fewthe army of north korea 'eygpt'brazil vietnam are about a million so it is possible for pakistan to do this.just me mentioning this on this forum and the indians are bricking themselves.

 

[BHarwana]

If a war breaks on Kashmir India number will never matter and be a changing factor in war. I kashmir a single person on a strategic position can take out multiple hostiles that is what history has taught.

 

[KhanBaba2]

@Psychic

India used another faction under the guise of Mukti Bahini in East Pakistan against Pakistan Army.

These were Tibetan Guerillas.

After Sheikh Mujibur Rahman was imprisoned in West Pakistan, more than 1,000 of his supporters escaped to India. Many of them were stationed near by the SSF camp.We trained them in military combat. They were known as the Mukti Bahini.Some of them were related to Mujibur Rahman. They later acted as our guides and contact persons during the war though they did not actually fight with us.Though it was us who fought the real war and suffered the casualties, all the credit has later been given to the Mukti Bahini (because the Tibetan Force was involved under the guise of the Mukti Bahini).


https://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-a-war-which-was-not-theirs/20120110.htm#1

When Pakistan sent Mujahideen from Afghan War in Indian Kashmir, India got a bloody nose in 90's. India then accused Pakistan of infiltration and cross border movement, where as India had done the same in 1971 and very cleverly forgot about it, sweeping the matter under a rug away from world's eyes. Now India harbors BLA,BRA etc in baluchistan and TTP in KPK, but if Pakistan does the same then Pakistan has to be black listed.

whats your take on this ?

PS: and stop being so abusive, it makes your posts look weak.

In the same interview

We went before the Bangladesh war started. Though we were meant to fight the Chinese in a guerrilla warfare, during the Bangladesh war, our main enemy was the Mizo insurgents.

Just as the Tibetans were trained by the Indian Army, the Mizo soldiers were trained by Pakistan.

2. Swiftly followed by air drop of at least a division, backed by air power.

What do you plan to use to airdrop a division.