Pakistan is now a $300-billion economy "Growth rate hits nine-year high of 5.28pc"

[N.Siddiqui]

Check this CPEC is an infra and power project and any infra project will results in more FDI from other countries. CPEC will attract 150 billion USD after completion...

https://tribune.com.pk/story/1181580/megaproject-cpec-set-attract-150b-investment/

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

These already answered in post 107, please point to deficiency or point of disagreement in my reply.

Your point of energy consumption/ purchasing power driving/reflecting economic growth would seem true, more over than not there are exceptions to the rule. There is a threshold where additional consumption doesn't have the same effect, (diminishing returns).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544206000338 <- Not sure if you have access to this.

This paper:

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/af3f/08c9340d5a0d6ef3ab080df80f2175ed7b4d.pdf

Looks at the OECD countries, great read. There are other papers that examine the lift off of the economy is due to inefficient electricity production but as the economy grows efficiency takes additional precedent. I'd never say Bangladesh is more "efficient", just compact, much of their industry is close to the coast compared to Pakistan's Punjab.

Pakistan has a 97% electrification rate compared to Bangladesh's 63% (2016). But we're comparing almost a difference of $200 some in per capita to a deficiency of 50% fossil.

The case of Singapore, it's a transit hub, I wouldn't be surprised if a little less than 1/2 of the oil is for ships in port or transit further. Pakistan is also an importer of oil for Afghanistan, who buys oil from the PSO? (someone).

You're points in post 107 are valid, I just didn't read the entire thread.

 

[N.Siddiqui]

What will Pakistan's nominal economy be in 2030 according to the new growth figures?

The GDP growth figure is increasing every year, as next year IMF prediction is 6.2, in 2018. Will hit above 7% in 3 year time. As written earlier many new infra and power project will add a minimum 2% to the overall GDP within a few years. So 7% plus GDP growth suddenly looks to be achievable...

 

[Kabira]

Over $500b is looking on for 2023 even without changing base year etc By 2030 it's likely to be well over $1 trillion.

 

[Skies]

300 bn with 8% compound growth will be more than $647bn after 10 year
And 1 Trillion after 16 years

 

[Abingdonboy]

The GDP growth figure is increasing every year, as next year IMF prediction is 6.2, in 2018. Will hit above 7% in 3 year time. As written earlier many new infra and power project will add a minimum 2% to the overall GDP within a few years. So 7% plus GDP growth suddenly looks to be achievable...

I've not seen anything that substantiates the figures you are proposing, going from where Pakistan is now to >7% growth is quite a leap and that doesn't seem to be the impression of any of the reputed forecast makers.

Anyway, it goes both ways, India's growth can too be revised upwards and for the same reasons as Pakistan's except with it starting from a higher base the effect in real terms will result in a greater expansion of the economy. I'm not sure how your assertion that the gap between India and Pakistan will actually narrow is even possible, for that to happen Pakistan would have to outgrow India for a sustained period but there is not anyone that projects this will happen, it's mathmatically impossible..

 

[N.Siddiqui]

I've not seen anything that substantiates the figures you are proposing, going from where Pakistan is now to >7% growth is quite a leap and that doesn't seem to be the impression of any of the reputed forecast makers.

Anyway, it goes both ways, India's growth can too be revised upwards and for the same reasons as Pakistan's except with it starting from a higher base the effect in real terms will result in a greater expansion of the economy. I'm not sure how your assertion that the gap between India and Pakistan will actually narrow is even possible, for that to happen Pakistan would have to outgrow India for a sustained period but there is not anyone that projects this will happen, it's mathmatically impossible..

Read this. The Nation is a reputable newspaper...

http://nation.com.pk/business/08-Oct-2016/cpec-to-boost-pakistan-gdp-growth-to-7-5

 

[Kabira]

300 bn with 8% compound growth will be more than $647bn after 10 years

View attachment 397972

And 1 Trillion after 16 years

You are not taking in to account inflation. If Pakistan growth rate reach 7% in couple of years and inflation 6%, that means GDP will grow at 13%.

 

[N.Siddiqui]

Also you must know that in 50's, 60's and even in 70's Pakistan GDP growth rate was almost twice or more that of India. Even in the 80's and 90's Pakistan per capita GDP was much higher than India. Indian growth was close to 2+ to 2.5% in those year also called 'Hindu rate of growth'...can be Google searched.

So Pakistan achieving that again is plausible and very believable, not twice the growth but closer to India and more.

 

[Abingdonboy]

Read this. The Nation is a reputable newspaper...

http://nation.com.pk/business/08-Oct-2016/cpec-to-boost-pakistan-gdp-growth-to-7-5

It's an opinion by some investors (which aren't even named), not the most reputable source. IMF and WB figures are somewhat more reliable and quite a bit more realisitc. Either way, that doesn't change the main thrust of my argument, it's mathematically impossible for Pakistan to close the GDP gap to India, it will only grow between now and 2030. You say it is 7.7 but it is closer to 8 (if not more) using the most up to date figures, perhaps it will be 12 or 13 to 1 instead of 14:1 by the revised figures you say will happen but there is no way the gap is going to narrow.

Alas, I am done talking about projections and hypotheticals, let us see what happens.

Good day.

 

[Alternative]

Your point of energy consumption/ purchasing power driving/reflecting economic growth would seem true, more over than not there are exceptions to the rule. There is a threshold where additional consumption doesn't have the same effect, (diminishing returns).

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544206000338 <- Not sure if you have access to this.

This paper:

chrome-extension://oemmndcbldboiebfnladdacbdfmadadm/https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/af3f/08c9340d5a0d6ef3ab080df80f2175ed7b4d.pdf

Looks at the OECD countries, great read. There are other papers that examine the lift off of the economy is due to inefficient electricity production but as the economy grows efficiency takes additional precedent. I'd never say Bangladesh is more "efficient", just compact, much of their industry is close to the coast compared to Pakistan's Punjab.

Pakistan has a 97% electrification rate compared to Bangladesh's 63% (2016). But we're comparing almost a difference of $200 some in per capita to a deficiency of 50% fossil.

The case of Singapore, it's a transit hub, I wouldn't be surprised if a little less than 1/2 of the oil is for ships in port or transit further. Pakistan is also an importer of oil for Afghanistan, who buys oil from the PSO? (someone).

You're points in post 107 are valid, I just didn't read the entire thread.

In this thread I am advocating that current GDP figures are understated; Ishaq Dar is stating that GDP is understated by 20-25% in a bloomberg interview; President of Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan is saying GDP is understated by more than 100%... links already provided in previous posts. numerous other reference can be found also.

Energy consumption comparison, vehicles, appliance comparisons etc with Bangladesh, in previous posts were to corroborate these observations of undocumented economy of Pakistan.
Singpore has an enormous GDP of $318 Billion given its size and population. and a good chunk of it comes from transportation .... out put side; so in the input side huge consumption of petroleum.

Petroleum consumption figures are taken from http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/rankings/oil_consumption/
and Pakistan consumption don't include Afghanistan's consumption.

 

[Thəorətic Muslim]

In this thread I am advocating that current GDP figures are understated; Ishaq Dar is stating that GDP is understated by 20-25% in a bloomberg interview; President of Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan is saying GDP is understated by more than 100%... links already provided in previous posts. numerous other reference can be found also.

No doubt.

 

[Cookie Monster]

That's not true at all, there are hundreds of under-development project as we speak. Infrastructure, dams, mines, everything... hence why we have this debt - it's necessary.

I didn't mean that all of the loans taken are squandered in their entirety...all I'm saying is that the loans can be spent more efficiently and our economy can reach new heights and grow even faster than the current pace if not for the corruption.

 

[WarFariX]

Nice Work... Hopefully Nawaz comes to power as this is a good achievement.

Dont you have any shame saying this? How much blind supporter are you -_-

 

[Kyoto]

Do you understand accumulated wealth? Since 1947 Pakistan has had higher GDP/capita than BD till just now.
That means that even though GDP/capita is the same, Pakistanis are still a fair bit wealthier than BD'shis.
Let us no go into the fact that BD discourages car imports/use by punitive import taxes. It also does not push for local assembly as this will push oil consumption high and the import cost of oil will affect the balance of payments massively.

I know it hurts Pakistanis ego but BD GDP/capita has just about surpassed Pakistan's and now a gap will start to grow as GDP/capita growth in BD is 6% a year as opposed to 3% in Pakistan.

Bangladesh still has a larger labour force since its population was historically higher until quite recently (72 million vs 68 million). It hasnt surpassed by nominal GDP per capita yet although it probably will have 2020. Pakistan also has a much higher GDP (PPP) so in reality Bangladesh is still far from reaching Pakistan's level of wealth although it probably will surpass it and India per capita eventually due to its higher gdp growth to population growth.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.TOTL.IN