Hi,
I do not think that any pakistani had noticed that in the recent statements by pakistani officials---the state of pakistan has advertantly admitted that it has lost its first strike capability over indian soil.
The suggestion that we are going to use the nucs on our soil to destroy the incoming enemy force was a tantamount to admission of a failed nuc strike capability across the border.
What that means is that pakistan is now admitting that india has ABM's that will take out its nucs during flight---and the next frightening thing for pakistan is that the long range nuc tipped missiles would be taken out on the pakistani side by indian ABM capabilities.
As the hostilities will grow---the U S navy would also be deploying its Aegis class frigates in the arabian sea closer to the pakistan indian borders----. The sole purpose would be to intercept the pakistani nuc tipped missiles that could fly into india.
They could also intercept any indian nuc tipped missiles flying into pakistan----but due to the geography and geometry----all the pakistan launched missiles could be intercepted---because they would be coming in---but the indian missiles would not be---even though the american missiles try as much---because they would be going away from the launch vehicle---.
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Just for reference sake---if you look at the map of pakistan and india----an aegis class cruiser off the coast of gujrat can intercept many a missiles coming into india.
The indian ABM's will cover the rest halfway above rajasthan. This is what I have been trying to explain in my last few posts---I did not want to get directly into the tactical issue---but the thing is that the U S is not going to allow pakistan to use its nucs successfully.
The U S is going to be a player in the game---whether pakistan likes it or don't. That is why I have been writing over here---there is no way out for pakistan other than gaining conventional strength.
If the generals are saying that cannot happen---then those generals need to be FIRED and those who can---need to be put incharge.
Any future Pak-India war will be based on kashmir. With Nukes or without nukes, its still impossible to take kashmir conventionally for PA. However Pakistan can defend its side of Kashmir.
Its difficult to take Kashmir because:
1. The population of Kashmir is not tilted towards Pakistan to think of it as its saviour. It was a rude shock in 1965, Op Gibraltar.
2. Conventionally, PA would need to break into and take pathankot (6th armoured Div, 17th infantry Div, 37 Infantry Div) and keep the IA engaged there, till PA Mountain forces (FNCA, 12th infantry Div) from North make inroads towards Kargil, Dras and Leh while the others (19th Infantry Div(Mangla), 23 Infantry Div(jhelum) reinforced by 7th Infantry Div and 9th infantry Div from Peshawar) take on Anantnag,Srinagar and Jammu. This is an inadequate force of 6 Mountain and Infantry divisions which would be facing 7 Mountain and Infantry divisions of IA. The equation is good for pakistan from defensive pov. For an offensive force, 3:1 superiority is required.
Even if Pakistan can field 21 divisions to IA 7 divs, a very fast approach for capture of Kashmir would be required. By-passing strong points of defense by a massive heliborne force(prone to lots of losses), landing in weak spots throughout IOK and exploiting them to keep the IA engaged while the advancing force faces resistance on the borders only.
Any delay will cause International intervention and all the sacrifices will be in vain.
3. Instead of moving USN AEGIS systems in the sea for an India-Pakistan war, USA will start diplomatic ways and means to end this war within days. First will be embargo followed by sanctions for use of nukes. USA will make sure that the war ends before nukes are used ( 7-10 days war).
Pakistan Armed Forces objective is not nuking Mumbai, its objective is taking kashmir. This matter should be handled through dialogue, not war.
I personally wish there are no more wars between Pakistan-India. Wars cause deaths and damages to both sides. It takes a country backwards by many years. Its a logistical and medical strain.
Nuke war is more destructive and unforgiving. It destroys man kind in the worst way possible.
The generals whom you are cursing have seen all forms of Armed Forces Services, Operational area and Administration. They have a far better perception of enemy threat than you and are far capable of leading a force or this nation than you. Show some respect.
And again for that reason---I bring back the Yemen issue---. A 15--20 billion dollars cash upfront for the first year would have taken care of most of the strike capabilities of pakistan and 5 billion a year after that would have taken care of the major issues.
It would also had given air force bases to pakistan on the arab land to strike deep into the indian flank---and alongwith another extra 150 k troops to gain strength from at time of crisis---.
And again to thos who have not read my yemen strike force numbers here they are----.
Pakistan Army should not be made a mercenary Army. Its a professional Army, it fights on orders and for Homeland, not for money. The Arabs can keep their money and spare lives of Pakistan soldiers.
Pakistan would release 50 K troops on the go---and in return it would ask saudi arabia to deploy one sqdrn of F15SA's at jacobabad---it would also ask emirate to deploy a sqdrn of BLK60 a J'abad and 2 sqdrn's of Mirage 2K9's at karachi----these would neuter any indian strike threat.
Oil is enough to keep country going through sanctions, in an event of war.
PAF is a good defensive force with offensive capability. If nuke missiles can be intercepted, then so can aircrafts be. There is no guarantee that F-15S or F-16 Block 60 will get through and make it back.
Pakistan would build a military cantonment at gwadar---a full blooded campaign would be started for new recruits---all newly retd general staff and officers be recalled to active duty.
Gawadar is envisioned as an economic hub, not a military base to scare away potential investors and international trading.
With the funds----pakistan would purchase at least 100 J10C's or100 SU35's----around a 100 JH7B's or a 100 SU34's----
Thats is just a wishlist, those numbers suit Russia or China, not Pakistan
For the size of country, PAF has enough aircrafts already to be an offensive and defensive force. PAF knows how, when ,where to use its aircrafts. It knows strengths and weaknesses of own and enemy aircrafts. The strategies and tactics are constantly evolving and new doctrines being followed.
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For the navy---at least 2 to 4 latest models of 052's and the 054's---between 5000 to 8000 + tonnage range----10 + upgraded F22 frigate
Even 6 Frigates are more than enough for the coastline that PN is defending, and all the forces will be deployed towards east, unlike India which has a huge coastline to defend.
For the army a build up to at least 10 divs of armor and artillery and 5 battalions of LR sams etc----and 5 divs of infantry.
Army has cut down its troops. Your plan is inducting another 300,000 active troops.
Lighter forces are being formed and equipped to fight the new type of warfare Aka WOT.
10 divisons of armour and artillery? what are you planning to do with extra 2500 tanks, 4000 APC, 1500 SP Guns, 1500 AD SP and thousands and thousand of logistical trucks and other vehicles and troops to support them?
Pakistan's salvation is in a conventional force---a strike force that can take out the cities around mumbai and beneath----.
Nuke is a deterrent and a very effective one. if things turn ugly, this remains a threat but i hope its never used.
Mumbai is the jewle in the crown---a destruction of mumbai would stop india from starting a war---.
We already know that karachi and lahore and multan would be destroyed---so we need to destroy what the enemy loves the most---where it would hurt the most.
Basically the time for a nuclear is over for pakistan. Nuclear wars look good to poor nations---nations who are in the recovery mode and see a light at the end of he tunnel---must refrain and find other means to counter---.
Please, lets not even talk about destruction of cities. There are millions of innocents living in these cities.
India and Pakistan both know this and there are some cool heads at important designations in both nations which is why both are not at war at this time.